Wednesday, April 28, 2010

Hey Sweetchart...


On a much more serious note, I have been tracking bond yields for the past few weeks. I noticed that there hasn't been that much fluctuation.

I think that a sustainable push up in the equities market is only possible if we get:

1. an exodus from the bond market
2. an exodus from gold into oil

So, my question is... where has all the moola gone over the past few weeks?

It can't be into more bonds because bond market yields have no more downside potential, meaning bond prices can't get any higher. Short term bonds in the 3-month to 2 year range in all categories from CDs to Treasuries to Municipals are all yielding in the low single digits. The best yields so far seem to be 20 year Municipals A bonds, yielding 7.1%.

That is essentially investors saying that they would rather be in 20 year Municipals A bonds rather than being in what is perceived as higher risk assets such as equities. In my diva opinion, that's ludicrous. People would rather get 7.1% a year for 20 years in a Municipal bond rather than be invested in the stock market? Ironic + ridiculous given all the news on Greece and now Spain! There are still better bargains in the stock market than the bond market.

So, I looked at gold and gold is still stuck in a Bimbo Limbo of its very own. It's been ranging since January and even with all the boos surrounding the European Debt Dilemma, we haven't seen a new high yet.

What about our dear friend, Franc? Even Franc didn't strengthen much against the USD. Since the USD has been rallying, I think we can see some more upwards potential in the equities market even though the sky is falling - yet again.

I suspect a lot of cash is now off the table and it has to go somewhere. Where? In real estate?

Regardless, the real beneficiaries, of course, will be the FWFs on Capitol Hill.


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