Friday, August 30, 2013
The Moment Has Arrived, But Will There Be Magic?
Finally, the SPY rolled over and we closed below the 50 SMA of 1659 - a monumental paradigm shift for the Semi-Bears...
Throughout the trading week, I took one for the team a few times too many, but we may finally get the momentum going with the Weekly Chart Watchers presumably coming in to intensify the selling.
I close the day in the red, with my CRM puts being sold down to virtually worthless, but some of my puts have started bringing in the green. A directional move to the downside will turn my portfolio around big time.
-0.66% SBA
-1.46% Roth IRA
-0.21% DJIA
-0.84% Nasdaq
-0.32% S&P
-1.08% FTSE
-1.00% Eurofirst
-0.53% Nikkei
+0.06% Shanghai
+1.19% SENSEX
+0.12% Hang Seng
-1.00% WTI
-0.91% Brent
-1.41% Gold
-0.49% Copper
00.00% Corn
-1.14% DJT
+3.51% VIX
-0.07% 10-Year US Treasury Notes
29% Advancing Issues on NYSE | 29% Up Volume
69% Declining Issues on NYSE | 70% Down Volume
2% Unchanged | 1% Unchanged
18 New Highs | 53 New Lows
22% Advancing Issues on Nasdaq | 18% Up Volume
75% Declining Issues on Nasdaq | 81% Down Volume
3% Unchanged | 1% Unchanged
38 New Highs | 28 New Lows
Into VIX Sep 18 '13 $20 Calls @ $1.00...
We need about a 20% move upwards to hit my strike...
Over the past 3 months, this thing was sold down from a high of $3.50 all the way to a low of $0.45 and the trend has started reversing...
Open Interest = 263501
Implied Volatility = 122.95
Syria... Taper Talk... a lot of stuff could drive the VIX higher - especially if we get some NFP numbers that are out of sync with market expectations...
P.S.
Current Price = 17.43
Out of Some TVIX @ $20.70...
About +10% gain...
Will use the proceeds to look for a good time to get into VIX calls...
We need a big position to move big time and with the number of shares I was left with on the TVIX, it made sense to move some of the money out!
TVIX Reverse Split... Seriously?
I hate reverse splits!!!
Why'd they even do it? Reverse splits are the height of stupidity...
I had so many shares of these and now I'll have a lot less fun when the VIX finally spikes...
Thursday, August 29, 2013
Market Makers, Give Me Some Financial Love...
It was a terrible day as I found myself getting knifed from both sides...
The Conviction Bulls came in and sold the lower strike puts and the Fraidy Cats Who Bought The Tops came in and sold the higher strike calls on a pop. It was not good.
The light bulb has been flickering all day and then, I decided to try some new moves:
1. Position for a fade on one of the day's biggest gainers: F
2. Position for potential economiss with earnings announcements: CRM (CRM beat, which means I might get beat up some more tomorrow as during Extended Hours, CRM is +7.22%)
3. Position for a big directional move: FB + SPY
4. Position for potential Syrian action: BA + XOM
5. Position for some fun with The Maharajas: EPI
It appears differences at the UN may create more delays...
At stake: Cameron and Obama's credibility... Do we really need to get involved?
+1.72% SBA
-2.23% Roth IRA
+0.11% DJIA
+0.75% Nasdaq
+0.20% S&P
+0.82% FTSE
+0.71% Eurofirst
+0.91% Nikkei
-0.19% Shanghai
+2.25% SENSEX
+0.84% Hang Seng
-1.96% WTI
-1.91% Brent
-0.59% Gold
-1.82% Copper
-1.54% Corn
-0.70% EUR/USD
+0.60% USD/JPY
+0.57% EUR/GBP
+0.26% DJT
+2.37% VIX
-1.11% 10-Year US Treasury Notes
60% Advancing Issues on NYSE | 63% Up Volume
36% Declining Issues on NYSE | 35% Down Volume
4% Unchanged | 2% Unchanged
28 New Highs | 41 New Lows
68% Advancing Issues on Nasdaq | 73% Up Volume
28% Declining Issues on Nasdaq | 25% Down Volume
4% Unchanged | 2% Unchanged
62 New Highs | 19 New Lows
Today's Major Headlines:
331,000 Unemployment Claims vs. Forecasts of 330,000 vs. 337,000 Previous
2.5% Preliminary GDP q/q vs. Forecasts of 2.2% vs. 1.7% Previous
Google's Soap Opera Is the Talk of Tech
Obama and Cameron under pressure to win over sceptics at home
Into EPI Sep 21 '13 $14 Calls @ $0.34...
Overnight, The Maharajas were SENSEXy with a +2.25% pop...
Let's see if there's some financial kama sutra in store for my portfolio...
Into CRM Sep 21 '13 $42 Puts @ $1.45...
Earnings announcements after hours...
Net income is negative according to most recent quarter and analysts are expecting 0.069 EPS...
P.S.
Current Price = 43.47
Implied Volatility = 48.88
Open Interest = 2453
Strike @ more or less 4% below current prices...
Into F Sep 21 '13 $16 Puts @ $0.22...
Was looking for something to fade and noticed this issue with a tonne of open interest...
Open Interest = 27322
Implied Volatility = 26.30
Current Price = 16.53
Monthly High On Issue = $1.98
4% move downwards in underlying price would put me in the money...
Into XOM Sep 21 '13 $90 Calls @ $0.48...
A 5% move up from current prices would put me deeply into the money...
Current Price = 87.67
Implied Volatility = 14.97
Calls have been sold all month on this issue with the high at around $5.55...
Open Interest = 13820
If some of the open interest comprises of Naked Call Sellers, they'll need to take profits...
Into BA Sep 21 '13 $110 Calls @ $0.58...
From all the delays, it's a question whether there really will be action in Syria, but in case there is, a 5% move up on BA would put me in the money.
Also, there was a lot of volume on an earlier issue with people wanting to get in at around the $107 area.
If there's followthrough, then a 'strike' could cause BA prices to hit my strike...
Out of SPY Aug 30 '13 $165 Calls @ $0.51...
Small gain, but might as well have been flat...
These short-term options have not worked out for me...
Out of TSLA Aug 30 '13 $160 Puts @ $0.91...
$0.56 per share loss, or 38% haircut...
Not happy about this one!
Out of FB Aug 30 '13 $40.50 Calls @ $0.93...
$0.45 per share gain, or 93.75% gross profits...
Too small of a position on this though!
Wednesday, August 28, 2013
Sir VIX A Lot: Round, Round, Round, Round I Get Around
Early on in the trading day, I got rid of some SPY puts at lower levels and jumped into some higher strike SPY puts as the Buy the Dippers stepped back in. It looks like I bought some puts very close to the day's low, so if Unemployment Claims come out worse than expected on the morrow, the Buy the Dippers will be toast.
We still need to close the week below 1659.84 on the S&P in order for the Weekly Chart Watchers to get on the bandwagon and until then, I'll have reposition myself if necessary.
Surprisingly, gold's ascent has been temporarily stalled, but it closed the day above $1400. Who knows if I let go of some of my SLV calls too soon? NGD, which I own calls on, dropped -7.2% today, so I wasn't feeling so good about the precious metals.
Unfortunately, my SDR and PER calls got very little action on oil's move up and the AAPL and FB calls I picked up along the way failed to gain traction, so I end the day with:
-1.45% SBA
-0.81% Roth IRA
+0.33% DJIA
+0.41% Nasdaq
+0.28% S&P
-0.17% FTSE
-0.32% Eurofirst
-1.52% Nikkei
-0.11% Shanghai
+0.16% SENSEX
-1.60% Hang Seng
+0.36% WTI
+1.37% Brent
-0.30% Gold
-0.35% Copper
+0.55% Corn
-0.40% EUR/USD
+0.72% USD/JPY
+0.32% EUR/JPY
-0.10% DJT
-2.09% VIX
+2.24% 10-Year US Treasury Notes
53% Advancing Issues on NYSE | 53% Up Volume
44% Declining Issues on NYSE | 45% Down Volume
3% Unchanged | 2% Unchanged
29 New Highs | 72 New Lows
55% Advancing Issues on Nasdaq | 66% Up Volume
41% Declining Issues on Nasdaq | 33% Down Volume
4% Unchanged | 1% Unchanged
33 New Highs | 26 New Lows
Today's Major Headlines
Strike on Syria Would Lead to Retaliation on Israel, Iran Warns
Scientists Create Human Mini-Brain
Into FB Sep 06 '13 $40 Puts @ $0.66...
Yes, another schizophrenic trade!
But it feels like some guys are selling FB calls, so would like to have these just in case...
Out of TIF Sep 21 '13 $77.50 Puts @ $2.09...
Scared that the Buy the Dippers will start selling puts!
$0.34 per share gain, or 19.42% gross profits...
Out of Some SLV Oct 19 '13 $24.50 Calls @ $0.89...
$0.17 per share loss, or 16% haircut...
Still have a few more of these, in case the upside continues...
This thing was nearly worthless at one point and it recovered nearly fully, but political events don't come around very often, so wanted to cut the position...
Out of SPY Sep 21 '13 $159 Puts @ $1.28...
Potential retracement, taking out some of the SPY puts...
Loss of $0.14 per share, or 9.8% haircut...
Tuesday, August 27, 2013
Continuation vs. Reversal?
That is the major question as we end the trading day.
Either way, I'm hoping that we'll open with a big gap tomorrow and there will probably be very little sleep as I'll be watching the Japanese Housewives very carefully tonight.
BMO and TIF both beat this morning, so my puts did not come in handy just yet. I also took a beating on my AAPL calls. Still, it was an immensely profitable day.
Interestingly, an issue of my Lehman bonds suddenly went in the green this morning and after some research, it seems that another distribution is due around 30 September or so (Reuters). Kind of excited about that! E*Trade priced some of my issues @ $0.23 to $0.25 on the dollar. Overall, I have a good six figure face value worth of Lehman bonds, but not sure exactly which issues will receive distributions. The expectation is that bondholders will receive $0.18 on the dollar (FT). The lawyers and advisers received a $2 billion plus windfall from this case, so theirs was a sure bet.
Tomorrow:
Pending Home Sales m/m
Thursday:
Preliminary GDP q/q
Unemployment Claims
+3.77% SBA
-0.25% Roth IRA
-1.14% DJIA
-2.16% Nasdaq
-1.59% S&P
-0.79% FTSE
-1.73% Eurofirst
-0.69% Nikkei
+0.34% Shanghai
-3.18% SENSEX (Should Nurse ForexDiva step in?)
-0.59% Hang Seng
+2.80% WTI
+3.21% Brent
+1.77% Gold
+0.26% Copper
-3.05% Corn
-1.44% USD/JPY
-1.28% EUR/JPY
-0.38% EUR/GBP
-2.59% DJT
+12.07% VIX
-2.99% 10-Year US Treasury Notes
22% Advancing Issues on NYSE | 14% Up Volume
76% Declining Issues on NYSE | 85% Down Volume
2% Unchanged | 1% Unchanged
16 New Highs | 79 New Lows
12% Advancing Issues on Nasdaq | 11% Up Volume
85% Declining Issues on Nasdaq | 88% Down Volume
3% Unchanged | 1% Unchanged
29 New Highs | 29 New Lows
Today's Major Headlines:
US, France and UK plan Syria strike
Russia & China Step Up Warning Over Syria Strike
Gold Closes Above $1400
Into SPY Sep 21 '13 $159 Puts @ $1.42...
Hope I'm not overdoing it, but wanted to have some puts that are further out in case we finally, finally close below some key SMA levels on the weekly chart...
Into SPY Sep 13 '13 $164 Puts @ $2.18...
Wanted to wait for dip to $1.99 or so, but it looks like this level is holding...
Into FB Sep 06 '13 $38.50 Puts @ $0.37...
In case there is a continuation move to the downside that may or may not be correlated with the broader market...
At the same time, looking to pick up some inexpensive calls if they get to my target entry level...
Out of FB Sep 06 '13 $40 Puts @ $0.91...
Feels like there's support right above $40...
$0.44 per share gain, or +93.61% gross profits...
Out of FB Sep 06 '13 $43 Calls @ $0.38...
$0.17 per share loss, or 30.90% haircut...
Will ride the $40 puts...
Into SPXU Sep 21 '13 $23 Calls @ $0.85...
There is a tonne of open interest on this issue...
Implied Volatility is a bit high on this, but could it head higher - especially if the VIX is able to find support?
A shift in sentiment seems to be occurring - at least for the short term - as action in Syria seems to be rattling nerves.
Political unrest hasn't had this effect for quite some time, so if the Buy the Dippers fail to push the SPY higher, this could be a very pivotal moment...
Open Interest = 10,457
Implied Volatility = 44.80%
Out of SPY Sep 06 '13 $165 Puts @ $1.66...
$0.14 per share gain, or +9.21% gross...
Retraced fast, so want to pick up some puts that are further out in case those Buy the Dippers pop back in...
The VIX Seems To Be Moving the Needle This Morning...
P.S. Definitely makes up for my two most recent economisses: TIF + BMO puts...
Monday, August 26, 2013
Good Day, Bombay!
After all the forexual tension, perhaps the Maharajas are finally going to get some reprieve from the sharp decline in the INR?
The biggest surprise of the day seems to be the sharp turnaround as potential action in Syria seemed to suddenly move the markets according to Bob Pisani on CNBC. When politics begin to drive the market, I wonder out loud how much momentum the Conviction Bulls have going for them.
The VIX put in some daily gains and if there's a continuation, some of my puts could finally go into the money!
+0.64% SBA
+1.99% Roth IRA
-0.42% DJIA
-0.01% Nasdaq
-0.40% S&P
+0.70% FTSE
-0.01% Eurofirst
-0.18% Nikkei
+1.90% Shanghai
+0.21% SENSEX
+0.65% Hang Seng
-0.17% WTI
-0.03% Brent
+0.45% Gold
-0.73% Copper
+4.04% Corn
-0.01% DJT
+5.36% VIX
-0.46% 10-Year US Treasury Notes
42% Advancing Issues on NYSE | 43% Up Volume
55% Declining Issues on NYSE | 54% Down Volume
3% Unchanged | 3% Unchanged
96 New Highs | 23 New Lows
47% Advancing Issues on Nasdaq | 56% Up Volume
50% Declining Issues on Nasdaq | 43% Down Volume
3% Unchanged | 1% Unchanged
115 New Highs | 15 New Lows
Today's Major Headlines:
Obama Prepares US Public For Syria Action
Out of SPY Aug 30 '13 $167 Calls @ $0.43...
$0.26 per share loss, or 37.68% haircut...
Let this one retrace for too long as I could have gotten out at a slight profit earlier in the day!
Into GRPN Aug 30 '13 $10.50 Calls @ $0.21...
Volume jumping into this issue today...
Currently trading @ around $10.40...
Into SDR Mar 22 '14 $17.50 Calls @ $0.35...
Still waiting for this thing to gain momentum and hit its 52WH at $21.22...
If it does, I'll be almost $4 per share in the money with these calls...
Friday, August 23, 2013
No Magic!
Thank God I picked up some FB and SPY calls, otherwise the losses would have been even more...
-4.04% SBA
-0.67% Roth IRA
+0.31% DJIA
+0.53% Nasdaq
+0.40% S&P
+0.70% FTSE
+0.38% Eurofirst
+2.21% Nikkei
-0.47% Shanghai
+1.13% SENSEX
-0.15% Hang Seng
+1.24% WTI
+0.95% Brent
+1.87% Gold
+0.84% Copper
+1.44% Corn
+0.11% DJT
-4.81% VIX
-2.86% 10-Year US Treasury Notes
67% Advancing Issues on NYSE | 64% Up Volume
31% Declining Issues on NYSE | 31% Down Volume
2% Unchanged | 5% Unchanged
66 New Highs | 39 New Lows
52% Advancing Issues on Nasdaq | 68% Up Volume
44% Declining Issues on Nasdaq | 30% Down Volume
4% Unchanged | 2% Unchanged
93 New Highs | 17 New Lows
Into SPY Aug 30 '13 $167 Calls @ $0.69...
Just in case we don't break below the Magic SPY Number today!
1658.87... Magic SPY 50 SMA
The Semi-Bears need a close below this magic number to get more momentum going...
Into TIF Sep 21 '13 $77.50 Puts @ $1.75...
Earnings announcement on 27 August 2013...
Analysts are expecting $0.74 EPS vs. $0.72 from a year ago, but previous quarter's top line and bottom line were both anaemic...
$81.08 = Current Price
$79.37 = 50 SMA
$73.63 = 200 SMA
36.19% = Implied Volatility
14.35 = VIX
1134 = Open Interest
Into FB Aug 30 '13 $41 Calls @ $0.45...
Pretty miffed that I let go of my $38.50 calls earlier in the week!
Into BMO Sep 21 '13 $60 Puts @ $0.55...
Earnings announcement on 27 August 2013...
Analysts are expecting $1.53 EPS vs. $1.49 from a year ago...
In the previous quarter, we had -5.20% quarterly YOY earnings growth and anaemic topline too...
We're also trading just around the 50 SMA of 61.54 and the 200 SMA is at 61.29...
P.S. Implied Volatility = 16.79%
Thursday, August 22, 2013
The Lost Files: Code Blue On the Nasdaq For 3 Hours...
Amidst the chaos, I was not able to take profits on any of my positions today, virtually losing my skirt! By the end of the day, they had revived the Nasdaq and no one's going to complain as it seems to have a healthy heartbeat, closing the day as one of the day's biggest gainers.
I want some more +100% fun, but the disciplined Weekly Chart Watchers must be eyeing tomorrow's close with an eagle's eye view.
Today's daily close was below the S&P 50 SMA of 1657.98, but will there be followthrough? If we see a definitive close tomorrow, I'm going to get back into those SPXU calls! A 6% move down on the SPY would yield about an 18% gain on the SPXU, which means we could be headed back up to $26 or so - and I might have gotten faked out...
-4.51% SBA
-1.22% Roth IRA
+0.44% DJIA
+1.08% Nasdaq
+0.86% S&P
+0.88% FTSE
+0.94% Eurofirst
-0.44% Nikkei
-0.28% Shanghai
+2.27% SENSEXy (Maybe 9FM will be in a good mood again?)
+0.36% Hang Seng
+1.18% WTI
+0.09% Brent
+0.12% Gold
+0.56% Copper
-1.91% Corn
-0.46% GBP/USD
+1.08% USD/JPY
+1.07% EUR/JPY
-0.47% EUR/GBP
+1.97% DJT
-7.40% VIX
+1.61% 10-Year US Treasury Notes
79% Advancing Issues on NYSE | 80% Up Volume
19% Declining Issues on NYSE | 18% Down Volume
2% Unchanged | 2% Unchanged
68 New Highs | 81 New Lows
77% Advancing Issues on Nasdaq | 81% Up Volume
20% Declining Issues on Nasdaq | 18% Down Volume
3% Unchanged | 1% Unchanged
86 New Highs | 19 New Lows
Today's Major Headlines:
Nasdaq Code Blue (Almost Surreal)
Carl Icahn Tweets That Meeting With Tim Cook Has Been Set For Early September - Potentially To Discuss Magnitude of Share Buyback
Out of SPXU Sep 21 '13 $22 Calls @ $1.06...
$0.34 per share loss, or 24.28% haircut...
If this thing breaks down, the Call Sellers will start coming in... Still got some SPY puts, which are more liquid...
Wednesday, August 21, 2013
The Good... The Bad... And The Bernanke!
I nearly got faked out today as it was volatile!
+0.69% SBA
-0.53% Roth IRA
-0.70% DJIA
-0.38% Nasdaq
-0.58% S&P
-0.97% FTSE
-0.58% Eurofirst
+0.21% Nikkei
+0.02% Shanghai
-1.86% SENSEX
-0.69% Hang Seng
-1.11% WTI
-0.32% Brent
-0.19% Gold
-0.27% Copper
+2.84% Corn
-0.42% EUR/USD
+0.65% USD/JPY
+0.46% EUR/GBP
-0.60% DJT
+6.37% VIX
+1.46% 10-Year US Treasury Notes
26% Advancing Issues on NYSE | 25% Up Volume
71% Declining Issues on NYSE | 74% Down Volume
3% Unchanged | 1% Unchanged
29 New Highs | 163 New Lows
31% Advancing Issues on Nasdaq | 28% Up Volume
65% Declining Issues on Nasdaq | 70% Down Volume
4% Unchanged | 2% Unchanged
56 New Highs | 34 New Lows
Today's Major Headlines:
Fed Minutes: Policymakers Favour Tapering This Year (USA Today)
SEC Scrutinises Goldman's Trading Failure
HP's third-quarter revenue slides 8 percent in tough PC, IT market
Will the Great Rotation Be: 'Out of the SPY & Into the VIX'?
Could the uncertainty send the VIX up to 25 handle over the short term and 40 over the longer term?
Into SPG Sep 21 '13 $135 Puts @ $0.84...
Still looking weak and this is one of those stocks that has been forming new 52WLs...
Into SPXU Sep 21 '13 $22 Calls @ $1.40...
A little more action on this issue today as volume jumps...
Still a lot lower than a lot of SPY puts, so have decided to get in at these levels...
Out of SPY Aug 30 '13 $165 Puts @ $1.60...
$0.16 per share gain, or 11.11%...
Couldn't seem to break much higher and began to retrace, so I'll stay out until I can find a better level...
Yikes! Out of V Sep 21 '13 $160 Puts @ $0.90...
Loss of $0.30 per share, or 25% haircut...
Spiking fast!
Out of FB Aug 30 '13 $38.50 Calls @ $0.81 + Out of SPY Sep 06 '13 $166 Puts @ $2.21...
$0.15 per share gain on FB, or 22.72% gross profits...
$0.35 per share gain on SPY puts, or 15.83% gross profits...
Tuesday, August 20, 2013
Will Coral Make Money On The Morrow?
It was a bit of a waste today as I abandoned some ultra bearish plays in favour of better levels on SPY $166 puts for fear that my SPXU calls will get sold if we go range-bound instead of postal.
My AAPL fun also lost short term momentum and I jumped into some FB instead as FB calls could be had for only a fraction of AAPL ones. I added some V and IBM puts in case any of these go deeply, deeply in the money. I missed an opportunity on my XOM and SPG puts, but have positioned myself with new V and IBM puts so that I can ride these through until September for another dose of small risk, big reward.
Tomorrow's hopefully going to be huge - yoooooooooouuuuuuuj - as we have FOMC Minutes + Existing Home Sales + HSBC Flash Manufacturing PMI.
-1.46% SBA
-0.44% Roth IRA
-0.05% DJIA
+0.68% Nasdaq
+0.38% S&P
-0.19% FTSE
-0.80% Eurofirst
-2.63% Nikkei
-0.62% Shanghai
-0.34% SENSEX
-2.20% Hang Seng
-2.04% WTI
+0.16% Brent
+0.42% Gold
-0.03% Copper
-1.98% Corn
+0.65% EUR/USD
+0.38% EUR/JPY
-0.48% EUR/GBP
+0.90% DJT
-1.39% VIX
-2.43% 10-Year US Treasury Notes
71% Advancing Issues on NYSE | 72% Up Volume
27% Declining Issues on NYSE | 27% Down Volume
2% Unchanged | 1% Unchanged
29 New Highs | 284 New Lows
71% Advancing Issues on Nasdaq | 76% Up Volume
26% Declining Issues on Nasdaq | 19% Down Volume
3% Unchanged | 5% Unchanged
50 New Highs | 45 New Lows
Today's Major Headlines:
Goldman Faces Losses On Erroneous Trades
Into IBM Sep 06 '13 $175 Puts @ $0.27...
200 SMA is above the 50 SMA on IBM...
Prices are below both SMAs...
If we continue to break new 52WLs, a 5% move or greater downwards between now and expiry would put me deeply in the money...
Into SPY Sep 06 '13 $166 Puts @ $1.86...
Have been waiting for a retracement to $1.28, but it looks like these higher levels are sticking - at least for now...
Out of SPXS1 Sep 21 '13 $10 Calls @ $0.30...
Loss of $0.12 per share, or 28.5% haircut...
I don't know how it happens, but this is the second or third time I got into a position right before a reverse split this year...
Out of SPXU Sep 21 '13 $22 Calls @ $1.06...
Loss of $0.06 per share, or 5.35% haircut...
If the Call Sellers start selling this issue down, I'll pick some up again...
Into SPY Aug 23 '13 $167 Calls @ $0.31...
Testing out the Implied Volatility theory I have once again...
Last week it failed, but let's see if there's upside this week!
Into V Sep 21 '13 $160 Puts @ $1.20...
About to break below 200 SMA...
If the break is definitive, then all sell will break loose...
P.S.
50 SMA = 185.37
200 SMA = 173.23
Out of AAPL Sep 06 '13 $510 Calls @ $9.22 + AAPL Sep 06 '13 $515 Calls @ $7.45...
$0.51 per share loss, or 22.36% haircut...
Not happy about this one, but will look for a better entry level...
Out of JPM Aug 23 '13 $52 Puts @ $0.49...
$0.05 loss, or 9.2% haircut...
Afraid the Put Sellers will start coming in on this one...
Monday, August 19, 2013
VIX-ing Up Is Hard To Do...
The VIX continued to be in focus today as the SPY closed below the 165 level. This is the rebound that is taking forever, but if we close below 165 this Friday, the Weekly Chart Watchers will most likely come marching in to sell and before we know it, we'll all be starring in a new episode of Biggest Loser.
I expected a lot more action as I was in that place where I was essentially short the S&P and long AAPL - definitely the right move directionally. But after taking profits on my AAPL calls and getting in a call spread a few weeks out, the part of the process where I have to sit out a definitive move on the Super Bear calls I've recently acquired is really getting to me.
Aren't they supposed to move fast? I mean there were moments when I wanted to put another pot of coffee on. Am I right? Am I wrong? The uncertainty is too much to 'bear.'
9FM must take pleasure in tantalising me too! After I thought he was ready to fill my wallet again, he's still trying to get me to work only on an extremely low commission - as in 60% below the market types of commissions. I'm in discussions with some other 9FMs just in case - even getting in touch with some of my ex-bosses. Who knows? Maybe I'll end up working with all my Market Buddies...
All of a sudden, momentum is gathering once again in terms of the financial upside.
+0.85% SBA
-0.74% Roth IRA
-0.47% DJIA
-0.38% Nasdaq
-0.59% S&P
-0.53% FTSE
-0.56% Eurofirst
+0.79% Nikkei
+0.83% Shanghai
-1.56% SENSEX
-0.24% Hang Seng
-0.39% WTI
-0.57% Brent
-0.31% Gold
-1.06% Copper
+4.06% Corn
-0.72% DJT
+5.08% VIX
+1.94% 10-Year US Treasury Notes
19% Advancing Issues on NYSE | 17% Up Volume
79% Declining Issues on NYSE | 82% Down Volume
2% Unchanged | 1% Unchanged
20 New Highs | 502 New Lows
29% Advancing Issues on Nasdaq | 28% Up Volume
68% Declining Issues on Nasdaq | 69% Down Volume
3% Unchanged | 3% Unchanged
49 New Highs | 52 New Lows
Today's Major Headlines:
New Apple iPhone Rumoured To Ship In Early September & May Have Fingerprint Scanner...
Rupee tumbles as India concerns grow and emerging markets turmoil builds
UK Gold Exports Surge Tenfold...
Into JPM Aug 23 '13 $52 Puts @ $0.54...
A surge in volume today...
Let's see if we can go in the money with the few days left on this issue...
Out of the Rest of BAC Aug 23 '13 $14.50 Puts @ $0.38...
$0.21 per share gain, or +123%...
Not many days left and any remaining Put Sellers seem to be reluctant to get out, so took profits...
Into AAPL Sep 06 '13 $510 Calls @ $13.03 + Sold AAPL Sep 06 '13 $515 Calls @ $10.75... Paid $2.28...
Gives me a few more weeks in case there is short term selling...
Presumably, there will be a tonne of people trying to get out...
P.S. Close above $512.28 = profitable trade
Close above $515 = full profitability
Out of AAPL Aug 23 '13 $510 Calls @ $6.91 + Bought Back AAPL Aug 23 '13 $515 Calls @ $4.86...
Loss of $0.20 per share, or 8.88% haircut...
Might be breaking down and would like to see if I can pick up some issues further down the line...
Trying An AAPL Call Spread: Into AAPL Aug 23 '13 $510 Calls @ $7.52 + Sold AAPL Aug 23 '13 $515 Calls @ $5.27...
In order to make money, we must close above the bought strike + debit paid, which in my case is $512.25 on AAPL...
For full profitability, we must close above the sold strike, or $515...
Source: OptionsMonster on Vertical Spreads...
Out of AAPL Aug 23 '13 $525 Calls @ $3.04...
$1.17 per share gain, or +62.5% gross...
This thing is knifing too fast and I'm going to pick this issue or another one up prices drop back to around my original entry price...
OMG... Did I Really Let Go of My SPG & XOM Puts So Prematurely?
It looks like my SPG $155s and XOM $90 puts would have been at least $11 per share and $2 or $3 per share in the money respectively...
Why did I get out so early? Why, God, why?
CNBC: Can ETFs Really Cause The Next Stock Market Crash?
Saw this over the weekend and did a tonne of research on Leveraged ETFs...
Most amazing of all is that DRN, the Direxion Leveraged Real Estate 3x Bull ETF, is trading so close to its 52WL now and the individual housing plays are still holding.
I was in HOV puts and it wasn't working out, but now the clouds have parted and it's obvious that if you catch the right ETF, a bearish play could really, really work out...
Friday, August 16, 2013
VIX-ated On Profits...
They couldn't shake me out of my AAPL calls today and finally, my AAPL calls and SPXU calls are both in the money and yet my equity took a dip today with both portfolios in the red.
Most notably, AAPL closed above the psychological $500 level right at $502.33.
Furthermore, the S&P closed below its 25 SMA and right about at its 50 SMA level. Over at the NYSE, we hit 32 new highs vs. 358 new lows.
I'm looking forward to a potential continuation and next week could be the week that I'll get a major financial boost.
Expiring issues include AMGN calls, HOV puts, L puts, MTU calls, CORN calls, GOOG puts (thanks to the likes of BK selling these lower strike GOOG puts, but I won't hold it against him since we're fellow Semi-Bears), PRU puts, SPY calls, WFT puts. Funny that most of these are puts, but the issues I've lost the most money on are actually the calls!
In the New Market Wizards book I've just started reading, Bill Lipshutz mentioned that you need to learn to make money on the 20% of the trades that you're correct on.
Though I'm lamenting the fact that I let go of my original SPY $167s, which ended the week almost +400%, I'm dreaming of the day that I'll really start hitting it out of the park. The major lesson I've learned through this mini financial disaster is to pay attention to Implied Volatility.
-3.07% SBA
-0.47% Roth IRA
-0.20% DJIA
-0.09% Nasdaq
-0.33% S&P
+0.26% FTSE
+0.30% Eurofirst
-0.75% Nikkei
-0.64% Shanghai
-3.97% SENSEX (What happened to my dear Maharajas??)
-0.10% Hang Seng
+0.35% WTI
+0.89% Brent
+1.17% Gold
+1.05% Copper
-1.77% Corn
+0.12% USD/JPY
+0.17% EUR/JPY
+0.58% DJT
-2.38% VIX
+2.69% 10-Year US Treasury Notes
35% Advancing Issues on NYSE | 33% Up Volume
63% Declining Issues on NYSE | 66% Down Volume
2% Unchanged | 1% Unchanged
32 New Highs | 358 New Lows
44% Advancing Issues on Nasdaq | 48% Up Volume
52% Declining Issues on Nasdaq | 51% Down Volume
4% Unchanged | 1% Unchanged
51 New Highs | 34 New Lows
Out of TRGT Aug 17 '13 $5 Puts @ $0.13...
Haircut of $0.07 per share, or 35%...
And these were even in the money! But, for whatever reason, the chemistry wasn't right...
Out of SPY Aug 30 '13 $166 Puts @ $1.87 + Into More SPXU Sep 21 '13 $22 Calls @ $1.17...
$0.30 per share gain on SPY...
Figured if the Buy the Dippers get fervent again, I'll have less money at risk with the SPXU $22 calls...
Plus, if this is the turn of the trend and if we're going down some more, SPXU will give me more bang for the buck...
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