OK, that didn't come out right!
Wednesday, March 28, 2012
... a mirage!
Remember our friend, VIX? Check out the 3-month correlation between VIX and JRCC - pretty close if you ask me.
So if VIX pops, do we also see a JRCC jump?
So close - yet so far away as JRCC did not manage to close above its daily 50% Fib level, which means the potential for further downside still exists. Perhaps I should have waited? But you know I love jumping on treasure trunks...
Monday, March 26, 2012
Thursday, March 22, 2012
What the sell? I'm in financial pain, HSFTs... wishing I hadn't bought PDC and wishing I wasn't still in JRCC. I'm sure the bears are enjoying a round of schadenfreude on me - particularly the ones at S&P, who downgraded JRCC to junk today.
It's my one year financial anniversary with 9FM too - the day his first email popped into my inbox and we both had a tiny glimmer of the open outcry trading ecstasy that later ensued.
Rather than averaging in to JRCC now, I'm going to do some more research over the weekend for some stocks trading around JRCC's current price of $5.49. I'll try not to get into any more commodity plays. After several months of getting beat up by the market makers, I'm ready for a new game!
Wednesday, March 21, 2012
Monday, March 19, 2012
This is from the SBA lot that I placed in August 2011 @ $9.7993.
It's almost not worth mentioning, but in case the market retraces, I've at least got some extra ammunition to fight back with the biggest losers in my portfolio - JRCC and CENX.
Thursday, March 15, 2012
... to the Lehman Payout Party!
I think my claim may have been filed under the Bank of New York Mellon As Indenture Trustee heading and I looked up some of my CUSIPs (52408R44, 5249087M6, 524908UB4, 524908R36) in escrow and sure enough, I see approximately $6.23 billion in allowed claims!
OMG! OMG! Hold my hand...
What am I going to wear??
My dreams of another 5 figures have been dashed - for the time being at least!
I checked the Lehman bankruptcy docket and apparently, I haven't got any claims on the bonds that have been placed in escrow. However, there may be a glimmer of hope with my two open positions - namely issues 524908BF6 and 52517PNZ0. If so, there will be at least 4 figures in it for me.
I guess it's back to work for me after nearly a grueling week in Switzerland. I launched two major initiatives on my business development trip to the Land of Tall European Men this time, with another two in the oven.
I had a two hour round trip commute everyday during my stay there and I've become very grumpy as a result. But 9FM made it all better when we international texted one another and he sent me a smiley face.
I met 35 people in 4 working days and now it's time to follow up and close some deals!
So I noticed some of my Lehman bond issues have been placed in escrow and there are just two issues that are still considered open positions and they are both in my Roth IRA.
We're supposed to be receiving less than 50 cents on the dollar according to The New York Times or more precisely, 21.1 cents on the dollar according to FT.com, but my Distress Investing: Principles & Techniques book doesn't mention anything about escrow bonds.
So what happens next? I know the payouts could come as early as April. Either way, if I'm getting a minimum of 21.1 cents on the dollar for the bonds in escrow or the open positions, I'll be happy.
My only hope is that I'm still invited to the Lehman Payout Party - THE $65 billion event of the year. There are still some prime assets left in the Lehman Estate, so I wonder what will become of these assets following the payout? I don't feel like I'm getting the maximum return since the Archstone battle could result in additional cash for creditors.
P.S. With the 21.1 cents on the dollar payout, my estimated payout will be 5 figures for the bonds in escrow and four figures for the open position bonds. So it makes a big difference which bonds are getting the payout - or perhaps even both if I get really quote unquote lucky?
... is at $9 already? I said not yet, but I sold some already and I was really ticked off because I've been waiting for a year for it to go up and it kept ranging.
Then he asked if I still had any shares. When I said yes, he joked that if I still have any shares, it won't skyrocket until after I've sold them.
Dad, if you're reading this: what the sell?
Now it looks cheap at $7.99, doesn't it?
Friday, March 9, 2012
Tuesday, March 6, 2012
Monday, March 5, 2012
Things are getting rough here at ForexDiva. I'm preparing for a business development trip to Switzerland in a few days, having exhausted three packs of very expensive HP ink cartridges in less than a week, and the market is hitting me from left and right.
I'm admittedly nervous, but the Glencore Traders aren't giving me one bit of reassurance.
I need a market pep talk, Professors - or just some upwards price action! So what's going on, Happy Shiny Glencore Traders?
Is the commodities market doomed? I wouldn't mind buying some cotton right now! Seems to have better prospects than the JRCC coal I'm holding, but I'm going to look for a moment to average in...
One of my most iconic trades so far happens to be the AMD second entry I made sometime following Lehman and if JRCC flops another 25%, that will bring its P/B level to the very evil 0.26 - not a bad time to average in just in time for another round of earnings announcement in early May.
Friday, March 2, 2012
Thursday, March 1, 2012
Have been in this lot since mid January and though reported losses on today's earnings announcements are slowing down, I'm diverting the funds from this partial lot to hopefully more profitable endeavours.
-$0.2291 per share loss, or -3.39% loss...
Am keeping the original lot from God knows when - November 2011.