Tuesday, December 10, 2013

Whoa... Volcker Rule Is No Joke...

Volcker Rule Sets New Hurdles For Banks On Market Making & Compensation

No more prop trading...

Limitations to banks investing in hedge funds and private equity vehicles...

Who will be there to run our stops anymore?  

Friday, December 6, 2013

Spiffin' Tiffins...

It's been a zero sum game for me this past week as I quietly chased The Maharajas and watched AAPL from behind the scenes.  There were numerous times in the week that I was wishing I was in 9FM's place.  I sent him a 7-8 figure client, but apparently, another few million in the bank is not enticing enough for him and he didn't bother taking action in time to take advantage of some last-minute Turkey Day sales.  All around me, I'm noticing missed opportunities in the name of bureaucracy.  

I swear it was the minute that I stopped buying AAPL calls that it started its ascent of over $87 per share higher, which means that I missed out on gains of anywhere from $5000 to over $8700 per call.  Repeat: per call.  I had strikes all over the place from $500 to $525 or something.

Every week for weeks on end, I would faithfully get into any AAPL calls within my price range up to $3 something.  I had a few small wins, but eventually got fed up being the dumb money, as BK on CNBC called it.  

I was right to follow Dear Carl Icahn, but somehow, I still ended up being wrong.  

If only I still had even one of those AAPLs in my tiffin...  

I took profit on one of my Lehman bond issues earlier in the week.  For something I bought for anywhere from $0.01 to $0.05 or something, being able to sell at $0.1925 was pretty exhilarating.  If only I had some more, but I'm looking forward to the day more of these issues turn green...

+1.26% DJIA
+0.73% Nasdaq
+1.12% S&P 

+0.83% FTSE
+0.72% Eurofirst
+0.82% Nikkei
-0.44% Shanghai
+0.18% SENSEX
+0.13% Hang Seng

0.86 Put / Call Ratio

+0.61% DJT
-8.55% VIX

0.090 Treasurys | DTCC GCF Repo Index
0.091 MBS | DTCC GCF Repo Index

+2.03% 5-Year US Treasury Notes
+0.73% 10-Year US Treasury Notes

70% Advancing Issues on NYSE                                 |   69% Up Volume
28% Declining Issues on NYSE                                  |   30% Down Volume
2% Unchanged                                                       |   1% Unchanged

65% Advancing Issues on Nasdaq                              |   62% Up Volume
31% Declining Issues on Nasdaq                               |   35% Down Volume
4% Unchanged                                                       |   3% Unchanged

Today's Major Headlines

Stocks End Sharply Higher On Jobs Report

The Stock Market Is Shrinking?

Bitcoin Broke Above $1000 This Week...

Friday, November 22, 2013

The Chicken & The Egg...

I'm going to be pulling an all-nighter as I have to check in with both 9FM and my ex-boss.  As both are Gujaratis (they sure can sing!), Saturday is a regular workday for these two gentlemen.  I'm planning to call 9FM around 3:00 am and my ex-boss at around 5:00 am, so the tea kettle will be clocking in extra hours too.  Maybe I'll have time for a Bollywood movie in between, but I'll have to get out some emails as the transiting Leo Moon trine Sun aspect will trine one of my natal planets.

I'm in a delicate situation.  I'm working on a project and as usual, people want to see the chicken and all I have is an egg.  To get the egg to hatch, I have to be doing a lot of foundation work, which is what I've been doing.  Now the egg is a few weeks from hatching, but people still don't see that.  I'm convinced this egg will hatch and eventually the potential for this new market will be bigger than my trading ego.  The risk for me is that the more I put myself out there to turn this into a hatching chick, the dumber I'll look if I don't get the requisite funding to implement this.  People are afraid I won't be able to implement, but I'm afraid they won't provide me with sponsorship funding.

Now, I've got to get people to commit with military precision.  I have perhaps 5 companies willing to commit on a contingent basis, who are very serious about it.  But I need at least 8.  Not to mention my time is limited.  I'm like an option on the brink of expiring here...  And they are my Market Makers!

In terms of trading, I'm still hoping people will buy my LEAPs.  Doesn't seem to be happening...  Even a broken clock is right twice a day!  Perhaps one of my biggest problems was getting into stocks with very little analyst coverage (i.e. very little buyers).  This is definitely something I'm adding to my screening process.

-1.50% Roth IRA

+0.34% DJIA
+0.57% Nasdaq
+0.50% S&P 

-0.11% FTSE
+0.10% Eurofirst
+0.10% Nikkei
-0.43% Shanghai
-0.06% SENSEX
+0.49% Hang Seng

-0.64% WTI
+0.55% Brent
00.00% Gold
+0.83% Copper
-0.06% Corn

+0.53% EUR/USD
+0.64% EUR/JPY
-0.39% EUR/GBP

0.94 Put / Call Ratio

+0.36% DJT
-3.16% VIX

0.097 Treasurys | DTCC GCF Repo Index
0.100 MBS | DTCC GCF Repo Index

-0.73% 5-Year US Treasury Notes
-1.15% 10-Year US Treasury Notes

59% Advancing Issues on NYSE                             |   64% Up Volume
37% Declining Issues on NYSE                              |   34% Down Volume
3% Unchanged                                                   |   2% Unchanged
231 New Highs   |   55 New Lows

59% Advancing Issues on Nasdaq                          |   57% Up Volume
37% Declining Issues on Nasdaq                           |   41% Down Volume
4% Unchanged                                                   |   2% Unchanged
241 New Highs   |   24 New Lows

Today's Major Headlines

Jamie Dimon Attends Dinner Hosted By Duke of York

Gold Traders Plan Benchmark Price Code

Sotheby's Loses Star Auctioneer Tobias Meyer

NO.......... First Bernanke... Now Maria's Leaving??

We'll miss ya!!

I'm At It Again: Into SPXU Dec 21 '13 $19 Calls @ $0.13...

Decline on VIX is slowing down... Potential MACD bearish divergence on SPY 10-day 15-minute charts...

It's the same signal I've been taking all year round, but there's nothing I want to be bullish on except for my industry...

This SPXU call gives me until December 21 to be right and the bulls might still come in and sell my SPXU calls, but based on the trajectory of the 3-month SPXU, an unforeseen reversal will catapult the SPXU to take out levels through to at least $19 or $20.

The FWFOCH will be in focus soon as well...

Thursday, November 21, 2013

Yellen's Not Allowin' Any Sellin'

Oh, the bulls were in for it alright... in for more upside!

I pounded the pavement again yesterday, dashing from Fifth Avenue across to Broadway, then back for a series of four meetings - three of which were pretty productive.  Somehow, I ended up losing my Smythson Turqouise Collection crocodile print business card holder, which I bought at Heathrow Terminal 5 en route to Switzerland last year.  I'm pretty upset about this and have been asking around to see if anyone somehow found it.  If I can't find it, I doubt they will make one just like it again.  My favourite part was the slider mechanism to open and close the business card holder and it was even in coral.

The meeting that surprised me most was the guy who said he had five contacts for me suddenly backed out in a very Jekyll and Hyde, bet he's a Gemini kind of way (nothing against Geminis and I'm a Gemini).  I also met with one of my ex-bosses and he told me that he might potentially be interested in doing something more exclusive, but that I should check with the Big Guy In Belgium.  

I'm praying that between 9FM and my ex-boss, I'll have something to be thankful for this Thanksgivin'.

-1.67% Roth IRA

+0.69% DJIA

+1.22% Nasdaq
+0.81% S&P 

00.00% FTSE

-0.14% Eurofirst
+1.92% Nikkei
-0.04% Shanghai

+1.46% WTI

+1.92% Brent
-1.39% Gold
+1.22% Copper
+1.08% Corn

+0.58% GBP/USD

+1.13% USD/JPY
+1.40% EUR/JPY

+1.11% DJT

-5.52% VIX

0.79 Put / Call Ratio

0.080 Treasurys | DTCC GCF Repo Index

0.079 MBS | DTCC GCF Repo Index

+0.22% 5-Year US Treasury Notes

-0.29% 10-Year US Treasury Notes

72% Advancing Issues on NYSE                          |   72% Up Volume

25% Declining Issues on NYSE                           |   27% Down Volume
3% Unchanged                                                |   1% Unchanged
160 New Highs   |   73 New Lows

74% Advancing Issues on Nasdaq                       |   83% Up Volume

23% Declining Issues on Nasdaq                        |   16% Down Volume
3% Unchanged                                                |   1% Unchanged
184 New Highs   |   33 New Lows

Today's Major Headlines

Bharatiya Janata Parties Like It's 1999: Gujaratis Are Up & Rising

Yellen Wins Senate Backing

Tuesday, November 19, 2013

Has My Moment Finally Come? The Pigs May Finally Be In For It... Most Likely Due To Dear Carl Icahn...

Followers of Dow Theory look for upticks in both the DJIA and the DJT for confirmation and it just so happens this perfect correlation is being threatened very suddenly with the DJT experiencing a steep daily drop of -1.00%.  

If we're targeting 3-month lows on the SPY and things really start breaking down, SPY 165 is fair game.  My question is whether this will happen before my options expire.  

What I should have done, but I didn't do today, was to get into some SPXU calls.  I was feeling so dejected yesterday that this moment was staring right back at me on the 10-day 15-minute SPY charts that I didn't see the big red candlesticks starting to overwhelm the Buy the Dippers.  

The rejections are starting to come in with a few candlesticks that signal that the bulls are being smacked down with every uptick.  

This might be the time I should have been upping my risk, but will ultimately end up missing the signal that turns out to be the one to be adamant about.

With 9FM traveling from Africa last week to Russia this week, I still haven't been able to jump on his treasure trunk yet.  We spoke for a minute last night, but since he had some business meetings, we will have to reconvene on Friday.  I want him and I want him bad... financially that is!

-0.06% DJIA
-0.44% Nasdaq
-0.20% S&P 

-0.38% FTSE
-0.65% Eurofirst
-0.25% Nikkei
-0.19% Shanghai
-0.01% Hang Seng

+0.34% WTI
-1.32% Brent
+0.06% Gold
+0.21% Copper
+1.58% Corn

+0.46% EUR/JPY

-1.00% DJT
+2.21% VIX

0.81 Put / Call Ratio

0.098 Treasurys | DTCC GCF Repo Index
0.100 MBS | DTCC GCF Repo Index

-2.88% 5-Year US Treasury Notes
-1.27% 10-Year US Treasury Notes

30% Advancing Issues on NYSE                          |  31% Up Volume
66% Declining Issues on NYSE                           |  67% Down Volume
4% Unchanged                                                |  2% Unchanged

36% Advancing Issues on Nasdaq                       |   39% Up Volume
61% Declining Issues on Nasdaq                        |   60% Down Volume
3% Unchanged                                                |   1% Unchanged

Today's Major Headlines

From $550 To $900 To $600: Wild Gyrations On Bitcoin

JPM Stock At Decade High On $13 Billion Settlement

Census Faked 2012 Election Jobs Report

DJT -1.14% So Far... Thanks To Dear Carl Icahn + Janet's Yellen?

Monday, November 18, 2013

When The Diva Is Away, The Market Makers Come Out To Play...

On a day like today, where even the Bitcoin hit $750 and is up 107% in a week according to CNBC, one really, really has to wonda when it's all gonna be ovah...  

Although even Dear Carl Icahn is commenting on Twitter that the market might see a very big drop, I'm done trying to catch the top.  There's no point in a diva like me expressing a point of view when one word from the Big Guys is worth more than a thousand words of mine.  When the glove don't fit, they still don't acquit.

Every time I have a put, the underlying moves in my direction one day after expiration.  Until I can figure out why this happens and how I can capitalise on it, I'm out...  

Case in point: I had TSLA $125s and $100s and right after options expiry, TSLA dropped over $16 at one point today, closing off about $13.87 or -10.24%.

Why this week and not last week?  Why, Mike?  Why?

If Carl Icahn has his way, then my SPYs might finally go into the money...

-20.16% SBA
-1.49% Roth IRA

+0.09% DJIA
-0.93% Nasdaq
-0.37% S&P 

+0.45% FTSE
+0.49% Eurofirst
-0.01% Nikkei
+2.87% Shanghai
+2.21% SENSEX
+2.73% Hang Seng

0.78 Put / Call Ratio

-0.34% DJT
+7.47% VIX

0.138 Treasurys | DTCC GCF Repo Index
0.139 MBS | DTCC GCF Repo Index

-2.22% 5-Year US Treasury Notes
-1.14% 10-Year US Treasury Notes

38% Advancing Issues on NYSE                          |   32% Up Volume
59% Declining Issues on NYSE                           |   62% Down Volume
3% Unchanged                                                |   6% Unchanged

35% Advancing Issues on Nasdaq                        |   24% Up Volume
62% Declining Issues on Nasdaq                         |   74% Down Volume
3% Unchanged                                                 |   2% Unchanged

Today's Major Headlines

JPM To Shoulder WaMu Bill

Boeing & Airbus Bullish On Global Demand

Frontrunning In the Forex

Friday, November 15, 2013

Electric Bear

My portfolio has been on Death Row for some time and all I'm asking for is a fair trial!  

1.88% yield on SPY vs. 2.71% on the 10-Year US Treasurys.  

Are the Market Makers essentially saying that anything is better than government bonds and will I have to endure two more years of trying to sell into a market top that keeps breaking higher?

With September NYSE Margin Debt surpassing 2007 levels, it shouldn't be too long before the margin calls start hitting the street.

-2.88% SBA
-0.91% Roth IRA

+0.54% DJIA
+0.33% Nasdaq
+0.42% S&P 

+0.41% FTSE
+0.28% Eurofirst
+1.95% Nikkei
+1.68% Shanghai
+1.02% SENSEX 
+1.69% Hang Seng

-0.02% WTI
+0.14% Brent
+0.14% Gold
+0.54% Copper
-1.11% Corn

+0.25% EUR/USD
+0.33% GBP/USD
+0.23% USD/JPY
+0.50% EUR/JPY

+0.69% DJT
-1.46% VIX

0.75 Put / Call Ratio

0.127 Treasurys | DTCC GCF Repo Index
0.115 MBS | DTCC GCF Repo Index

+0.97% 5-Year US Treasury Notes
+0.26% 10-Year US Treasury Notes

63% Advancing Issues on NYSE                           |   69% Up Volume
33% Declining Issues on NYSE                            |   29% Down Volume
4% Unchanged                                                 |   2% Unchanged
241 New Highs   |   18 New Lows

57% Advancing Issues on Nasdaq                        |   66% Up Volume
39% Declining Issues on Nasdaq                         |   32% Down Volume
4% Unchanged                                                 |   2% Unchanged
181 New Highs   |   38 New Lows

Today's Major Headlines:

JPM To Pay $4.5 Billion In Mortgage Securities Settlement

Forbes Appoints Bankers For $400 Million Auction

GE Retail IPO Estimated Valuation of $20 Billion