Thursday, October 31, 2013
Duds 'R Us
After getting in with the FB Naked Call Sellers early in the day, I switched gears, thinking the Put Sellers would get their time in the sun too since there were a lot of short straddles going into earnings. Not a good move.
I stalked FB price action all day and will spend some time working out a momo strategy on this and other technology names.
-13.65% SBA
+1.52% Roth IRA
-0.47% DJIA
-0.28% Nasdaq
-0.38% S&P
-0.68% FTSE
+0.40% Eurofirst
-1.20% Nikkei
-0.87% Shanghai
+0.62% SENSEX
-0.42% Hang Seng
-0.47% WTI
-0.85% Brent
-1.86% Gold
-0.78% Copper
-0.46% Corn
-1.14% EUR/USD
-1.31% EUR/JPY
+1.12% EUR/GBP
0.88 Put / Call Ratio
-0.48% DJT
+0.73% VIX
0.080 Treasurys | DTCC GCF Repo Index
0.087 MBS | DTCC GCF Repo Index
+0.54% 5-Year US Treasury Notes
+0.59% 10-Year US Treasury Notes
38% Advancing Issues on NYSE | 36% Up Volume
59% Declining Issues on NYSE | 63% Down Volume
3% Unchanged | 1% Unchanged
143 New Highs | 25 New Lows
37% Advancing Issues on Nasdaq | 49% Up Volume
60% Declining Issues on Nasdaq | 50% Down Volume
3% Unchanged | 1% Unchanged
109 New Highs | 48 New Lows
Into FB Nov 01 '13 $49 Puts @ $0.40...
Looks like a trend channel formation could form and we could hit $48 again today...
If it does, then these will go into the money...
Out of FB Nov 01 '13 $50 Calls @ $0.55
$0.06 haircut...
Looks like a lot of the longs still want to get out...
Into FB Nov 01 '13 $50 Calls @ $0.61...
Volume of 20,609 this morning...
Let's see if any of these are naked...
Wednesday, October 30, 2013
I've Had It!
It took a lot for me not to jump into FB calls and I was left long $43 puts going into earnings announcement. It appears it was the wrong choice given the market's Extended Hours reaction to a $0.06 beat, but I'm left with a much bigger decision than my trading.
After staying up to speak with 9FM well past 2 am last night, I'm pondering whether I should throw in the financial towel - at least temporarily. On one hand, I'm at his mercy because we have two pending potential 7 to 8 figure clients. On the other hand, he's not willing to increase the below-market commissions he's willing to pay me and I have a string of other pending potential 7 to 8 figure clients that I haven't referred to him yet. I need him and he needs me, but I really stopped myself from pleading with him. 'Cause I can't help it if he looks like an angel... Can't help it if there's no one else...
I'm going to call him again tonight... maybe... to see if he Comes In With the Rain or whether there'll be Teardrops On My Guitar...
I've ended up being the dumb money on a tonne of stuff aside from my trading lately and trying to turn this around has been like hitting brick wall after brick wall.
I haven't given up yet, but I'm seriously thisclose:
-2.01% SBA
+0.28% Roth IRA
-0.39% DJIA
-0.55% Nasdaq
-0.49% S&P
+0.04% FTSE
-0.04% Eurofirst
+1.23% Nikkei
+1.48% Shanghai
+0.50% SENSEX
+2.00% Hang Seng
-1.58% WTI
+0.79% Brent
-0.22% Gold
+1.33% Copper
-0.46% Corn
+0.38% USD/JPY
0.97 Put / Call Ratio
-0.61% DJT
+1.79% VIX
0.098 Treasurys | DTCC GCF Repo Index
0.105 MBS | DTCC GCF Repo Index
+3.32% 5-Year US Treasury Notes
+0.80% 10-Year US Treasury Notes
29% Advancing Issues on NYSE | 36% Up Volume
68% Declining Issues on NYSE | 63% Down Volume
3% Unchanged | 1% Unchanged
215 New Highs | 13 New Lows
25% Advancing Issues on Nasdaq | 26% Up Volume
71% Declining Issues on Nasdaq | 73% Down Volume
4% Unchanged | 1% Unchanged
178 New Highs | 33 New Lows
Today's Major Headlines
Atlas Didn't Shrug - Yet... December or January Taper Still On the Table
Batista Seeks OGX Bankruptcy Protection
Cities Compete To Be Global Centre of RMB Trading
Tuesday, October 29, 2013
Will Atlas Shrug Tomorrow?
Maria, I put my money to work and lost my skirt! I should have known better! People were clearly short straddles going into AAPL earnings and I still piled in. When the price action doesn't feel right, it's pretty hard to push things to new heights.
Based on the disappointing and lacklustre followthrough in AAPL today, I'm going to have to really, really think about whether I want to get into FB.
AAPL isn't the only example with flailing volatility following earnings. With YELP, the straddlers were buying at nearly $10 per straddle pre-earnings. In a perfect world, we'd see a $10 or greater move in either direction and yet, following earnings, we're only seeing a $3 something per share move in Extended Hours Trading. With LNKD, the straddlers were buying at nearly $25 per straddle pre-earnings. The initial reaction following LNKD earnings announcement is just about -$12 per share.
The WOW factor is clearly missing, so is this a trend that will continue with the rest of the momo names?
Sure, I'm ticked off that AAPL didn't move as expected even though it has an EPS level that is more than 3x its current P/E, beat both on the top line and bottom line and even promised to launch some new product categories, but it appears the writing was on the wall going into earnings. I chose to get into it nonetheless and will just have to make better choices in the future.
The biggest question on everyone else's minds: Will Benjamin Atlas Bernanke shrug tomorrow? Rick Santelli pointed out that on some Treasury issues, Bernanke is the only buyer. Sad thought.
We need you desperately, Bernanke! Please don't shrug... don't shrug... (Watched the movie on NFLX and cried, so will probably read the book at some point...)
The biggest question on my mind: will I finally be able to make money tomorrow? I've got to!
What I now know is: AAPL is clearly a smart money name and I need to find the names where there is dumber money than me in order to make a profit. LOL.
So where are those names, praytell? And the biggest question of all: is there dumber money than me? LOL.
Homework time!
-19.63% SBA
-3.41% Roth IRA
+0.72% DJIA
+0.31% Nasdaq
+0.56% S&P
+0.73% FTSE
+0.40% Eurofirst
-0.49% Nikkei
-0.23% Shanghai
-0.50% WTI
-0.74% Brent
+0.57% Gold
+0.64% Copper
+0.35% Corn
-0.61% GBP/USD
+0.52% USD/JPY
0.71 Put / Call Ratio
+0.22% DJT
+0.75% VIX
0.101 Treasurys | DTCC GCF Repo Index
0.105 MBS | DTCC GCF Repo Index
-1.09% 5-Year US Treasury Notes
-0.20% 10-Year US Treasury Notes
59% Advancing Issues on NYSE | 64% Up Volume
37% Declining Issues on NYSE | 35% Down Volume
3% Unchanged | 1% Unchanged
234 New Highs | 9 New Lows
57% Advancing Issues on Nasdaq | 57% Up Volume
39% Declining Issues on Nasdaq | 42% Down Volume
4% Unchanged | 1% Unchanged
220 New Highs | 18 New Lows
Today's Major Headlines
Batista's Talks With OGX Creditors Fail, Expected To Impact $3.6 Billion Bonds
BBRY Met With FB Last Week On Potential Bid
JPM Deal With US DOJ Could Collapse
White House Knew Millions Couldn't Keep Health Plans (ObamaCare Should Be Repealed!)
Into SPXU Nov 16 '13 $18 Calls @ $0.38...
The SPY has been killing me! Switching over to the SPXU to see if I can get some more action to my liking. I now have both SPXU calls and puts...
Out of FB Nov 01 '13 $55 Calls @ $1.38...
$0.14 haircut... will wait for tomorrow...
If people are still short straddles going into earnings, then I'm going to stay out and wait for the next day to get into calls that are one or two weeks out...
I'm Scared... I'm Very, Very Fraidy, But... Into FB Nov 01 '13 $55 Calls @ $1.52...
P.S. Options food chain turning positive on the call side and it looks like FB could break up to the high side on 5-day trend channel formation...
P.P.S. It kind of looks like an Andrews Pitchfork waiting to happen!
Monday, October 28, 2013
Ring A Ding Dinged...
I keep getting dinged and I still go back into the ring...
After tonnes of black eyes and a multitude of punches in the nose, I still go back to options trading like an 8 year old girl humming along to 'Hey Stephen' at a Taylor Swift concert. So far, strangles and straddles seem to have slowed down the law of diminishing returns for me, but not today.
AAPL is my guinea pig, so if I notice price action not following through tomorrow, I will finetune my FB strategy. It looks like the stock is dropping off a cliff in Extended Hours Trading even though the company beat on both topline and bottom line. At one point it was a hair away from $500, so thank God I didn't go postal and unilateral here. Will the sell-off intensify tomorrow or will both my calls and puts get sold?
Things appear to be deteriorating by the day in the options market. People seem to be more interested in selling calls now and a FB straddle was worth over $8 last week and worth just $6 something this week.
Unless there's a level I like on FB, I'm staying out. If there's one thing I can control right now, it's my trading discipline.
It's clear that investors aren't interested in LEAPs and we have to take it as a sign that the market is just not seeing that upside 6 months from now or people would be buying this stuff hand over fist. All year, LEAPS were getting sold and the only way they'll go up is via the Greater Fool Theory. So far, I've been the Greatest Fool by buying LEAPS when the all-time highs first started hitting.
LEAPS are good for market bottoms, not potential tops.
-12.68% SBA
+0.89% Roth IRA (the Good Lord must have heard my prayers...)
-0.01% DJIA
-0.08% Nasdaq
+0.13% S&P
+0.07% FTSE
-0.14% Eurofirst
+2.19% Nikkei
+0.04% Shanghai
-0.55% SENSEX
+0.48% Hang Seng
+0.75% WTI
+2.32% Brent
+0.09% Gold
-0.09% Copper
-2.05% Corn
0.78 Put / Call Ratio
0.108 Treasurys | DTCC GCF Repo Index
0.113 MBS | DTCC GCF Repo Index
+0.39% DJT
+2.22% VIX
+0.16% 5-Year US Treasury Notes
+0.36% 10-Year US Treasury Notes
44% Advancing Issues on NYSE | 45% Up Volume
53% Declining Issues on NYSE | 54% Down Volume
3% Unchanged | 1% Unchanged
191 New Highs | 8 New Lows
47% Advancing Issues on Nasdaq | 43% Up Volume
49% Declining Issues on Nasdaq | 55% Down Volume
4% Unchanged | 2% Unchanged
181 New Highs | 17 New Lows
Today's Major Headlines
Mizuho's Flaws Opened Doors To Gangsters
AAPL Beats, Shares Fall, ForexDiva Gets Dinged
Batista: Billionaire To Bankrupt?
Out of FB Nov 01 '13 $57.50 Calls @ $1.11...
May be able to buy back at a lower price... perhaps even a better level at a lower price, so am waiting for a better entry!
Into FB Nov 01 '13 $57.50 Calls @ $1.15 + Into FB Nov 01 '13 $43 Puts @ $0.59 = $1.74...
Earnings announcement on 30 October 2013...
Into SPXU Nov 16 '13 $17 Puts @ $0.19...
Bernanke soon... Imagine if he ups QE?
Don't want to get caught with too many SPY puts in case he does...
Friday, October 25, 2013
Don't Shoot! The Diva Surrenders...
Last night, I watched the 'End of the Road: How Money Became Worthless' documentary slash financial horror story starring Peter Schiff. It got me so, so scared and I highly recommend it.
What really got me thinking was that the documentary points out that Treasurys are basically akin to a giant Ponzi scheme and that the day people stop buying Treasurys, it will all unravel and there will be a massive transfer of wealth to emerging markets coupled with a precipitous, sudden double digit drop in the USD.
I love the guy, but since Bernanke's been buying Treasurys and will soon be passing the baton onto Janet Yellen, what does he know that we don't? Why does he have to keep buying Treasurys? Is it already starting to unravel? Coincidentally, the FT has a story about shaken confidence in the USD.
I wish someone would prop up my portfolio and buy all the LEAPs I stuffed into my portfolio back in May. They're still getting killed and in spite of the fun I had with AMZN, I got thoroughly grilled.
From now on, I'm only playing earnings announcements or technical setups with options! No more LEAPs... It turns out even the cheapos make money during a trading frenzy as the AMZN calls I had were set to expire today.
-2.93% SBA
-4.84% Roth IRA (thanks to SDR calls... SDR -16.69% on Raymond James downgrade)
+0.39% DJIA
+0.37% Nasdaq
+0.44% S&P
+0.12% FTSE
-0.09% Eurofirst
-2.75% Nikkei
-1.45% Shanghai
+0.91% WTI
+0.14% Brent
+0.12% Gold
-0.15% Copper
-0.11% Corn
0.92 Put / Call Ratio
-0.60% DJT
-0.83% VIX
0.086 Treasurys | DTCC GCF Repo Index
0.095 MBS | DTCC GCF Repo Index
-1.99% 5-Year US Treasury Notes
-0.75% 10-Year US Treasury Notes
56% Advancing Issues on NYSE | 60% Up Volume
41% Declining Issues on NYSE | 39% Down Volume
3% Unchanged | 1% Unchanged
251 New Highs | 13 New Lows
45% Advancing Issues on Nasdaq | 44% Up Volume
51% Declining Issues on Nasdaq | 55% Down Volume
4% Unchanged | 1% Unchanged
240 New Highs | 17 New Lows
Today's Major Headlines
JPMorgan Settlement Move Spurs Rivals To Act
FT: USD - Superpower At Risk of Slippage
Out of ZNGA Nov 16 '13 $4 Calls @ $0.14...
$0.07 haircut on this leg... Perhaps my $3.50 puts could get hit?
Price action doesn't feel right on the calls...
Out of AMZN Oct 25 '13 $370 Calls @ $2.20...
Original strangle = $1.62
$0.58 per share gain on full strangle, about +35%...
I really wanted to ride this and had an $18 target on this, but was wondering if this will turn out to be like NFLX...
Thursday, October 24, 2013
Will AMZN + ZNGA Be Soargasmic For Coral On the Morrow?
OMG in a very big way... At some point, AMZN was +$25 something in Extended Hours Trading - shooting up to around $360 after reporting in-line EPS coupled with better than expected revenues. Can we gap higher tomorrow so I can get in with the Sell the Sizzlers?
Maria said it best: "Zero profits, big returns..."
ZNGA +18% at one point... in value terms, not a very big pop, but since I have November calls, I'm planning on playing this like I played AMD this week - every two levels, baby! I inadvertently stumbled into an interesting money making strategy by getting my money back on the full straddle or strangle, then getting into the higher strike calls to see if there's further upside. Less risk, more fun.
Unfortunately, I let go of those GOOG $1050 calls too soon. At some point in the trading day, they were worth $4.91 during the height of trading ecstasy.
-1.64% SBA
+0.03% Roth IRA
+0.62% DJIA
+0.56% Nasdaq
+0.33% S&P
+0.58% FTSE
+0.46% Eurofirst
+0.42% Nikkei
-0.86% Shanghai
-0.20% SENSEX
-0.71% Hang Seng
+0.21% WTI
-0.79% Brent
+1.21% Gold
+0.03% Copper
-0.56% Corn
0.80 Put / Call Ratio
+0.88% DJT
-1.64% VIX
0.045 Treasurys | DTCC GCF Repo Index
0.042 MBS | DTCC GCF Repo Index
+2.44% 5-Year US Treasury Notes
+1.49% 10-Year US Treasury Notes
56% Advancing Issues on NYSE | 58% Up Volume
41% Declining Issues on NYSE | 41% Down Volume
3% Unchanged | 1% Unchanged
222 New Highs | 11 New Lows
60% Advancing Issues on Nasdaq | 52% Up Volume
37% Declining Issues on Nasdaq | 47% Down Volume
3% Unchanged | 1% Unchanged
238 New Highs | 16 New Lows
Today's Major Headlines
Bitcoin Endorsed By Major Hedge Fund Manager
Twitter Could Raise Up To $1.6 Billion In IPO
Some Guy Thinks The Next 10% Correction Could Be 5 Years Away
In the Matter of Gross vs. Icahn On Twitter...
Sell the Sizzle Not the Stake?
Just wondering if shareholders are buying puts right before earnings announcement, then selling calls on better than expected news, and then turning around and selling puts to boot?
How Do Prices At FreshDirect Increase 16 to 33% Every Week?
Potatoes = 33% increase
Cauliflower = 16% increase
Maybe we should all become grocers...
FB Broke Out, But This Week's Calls Got Sold, So Next Time...
I'm going to buy straddles that are one week out...
No more cheapos for me!
That $51.50 was a good level to straddle!
Where Are the New Home Sales?
We got Unemployment Claims... not New Home Sales today...
Homebuilders still moving, so lucky shot!
Wednesday, October 23, 2013
Are the Bulls Still Secretly Buying the Dips?
Looks like it! DJT managed to push higher today in spite of a slight downtick in the SPY whilst hundreds of stocks are still hitting new 52WHs. I'll keep an eye on these everyday to see if there are any heavy duty triple digit stock prices with heavy hitting P/Es.
I held onto my SPY puts, but added some homebuilders for tomorrow's New Home Sales. I also jumped into a cheapo AMZN strangle in anticipation of some crazy prices with the AMZN earnings announcement.
Crazy prices for crazy markets! ETFC missed by a penny and was down -6% at one point in Extended Hours Trading...
-1.59% SBA
-2.03% Roth IRA
-0.35% DJIA
-0.57% Nasdaq
-0.47% S&P
-0.32% FTSE
-0.63% Eurofirst
-1.95% Nikkei
-1.25% Shanghai
-0.47% SENSEX
-1.36% Hang Seng
-1.27% WTI
-2.20% Brent
-0.79% Gold
-2.09% Copper
+0.91% Corn
-0.41% GBP/USD
-0.82% USD/JPY
-0.83% EUR/JPY
-0.40% EUR/GBP
0.86 Put / Call Ratio
+0.69% DJT
+0.68% VIX
0.042 Treasurys | DTCC GCF Repo Index
0.055 MBS | DTCC GCF Repo Index
-0.78% 5-Year US Treasury Notes
-1.07% 10-Year US Treasury Notes
44% Advancing Issues on NYSE | 31% Up Volume
53% Declining Issues on NYSE | 67% Down Volume
3% Unchanged | 2% Unchanged
157 New Highs | 12 New Lows
38% Advancing Issues on Nasdaq | 22% Up Volume
58% Declining Issues on Nasdaq | 76% Down Volume
4% Unchanged | 2% Unchanged
165 New Highs | 23 New Lows
Today's Major Headlines
Scramble To Buy Spanish Banks' Bad Loans
US DOJ Mortgages Probe Targets 9 Banks
Into AMZN Oct 25 '13 $370 Calls @ $0.88 + Into AMZN Oct 25 '13 $280 Puts @ $0.74 = $1.62
Trying out this strangle for tomorrow's AMZN earnings announcement...
AMZN CFO sold some shares in August 2013 at around the $288 level, but if we get a beat, could it get as crazy as NFLX?
I'm going to set price targets to sell on both the calls and puts in hopes that a lot of volatility could hit both these options...
CNBC: Dear Carl Icahn Sent Tim Cook A New I Pledge Allegiance Type Love Letter...
Will more share buybacks be in the works for AAPL?
Into KBH Oct 25 '13 $17.50 Puts @ $0.25...
New home sales tomorrow...
If it beats, I'll have some TOL calls to ride, which has one of the lowest P/Es in the sector. If we get an economiss, KBH has one of the highest P/Es in the sector, so I'll get some fun here - hopefully...
Out of FB Oct 25 '13 $51.50 Puts @ $0.72... Into FB Oct 25 '13 $53 Calls @ $0.38 + Into FB Oct 25 '13 $50.50 Puts @ $0.36 = $0.74...
$0.20 gain on the puts, or 38.46%...
Tiny triangle formation on FB 1-day chart...
Looks like $51.50 could be a good straddle, but I'm counting on a big breakout on either direction and have placed some puts and calls in the path of the storm in hopes that one of them will go deeply into the money over the next two days...
Tuesday, October 22, 2013
Momentum Name Nervous Breakdown Overview
NFLX -32.46 -9.15%
LNKD -4.84 -1.94%
FB -1.175 -2.18%
Kind of wishing GOOG was on this...
Maybe tomorrow!
Pile It On Every Two Levels, Baby!
As the Piling On-ners keep screaming 'Pile it on every two levels, baby...' I'm left exasperated and muttering 'No more for me.' The Market Makers have spoken today and they're obviously not too happy with the Piling On-ners using hundreds to make thousands on momentum names. If the Market Makers weren't behind the broad-based dinging today on LNKD, AAPL, FB, and NFLX, I don't know who is. Who's next and will my GOOG $955 puts come into play before expiry?
At the height of the NFLX frenzy this morning, the $335 calls expiring this week went up to $54.97 and they were even more expensive than the ones expiring next week, which only went up to $50.99 on the same strike. All the upside got faded and the same strike same expiry is now worth $4. A difference of a few hours delineated a winner vs. a loser. Though I ended up the biggest loser by missing out on the fun, Thank God I didn't jump into any NFLX calls this morning. People were paying over $44 for a NFLX straddle yesterday and they were willing to pay over $8 for a FB straddle as of yesterday. Not my cup of tea, HSFTs!
I'm not into paying a lot for a muffler, but apparently, being able to buy straddles for a little over a dollar is so one month ago.
I've got to slow my trading down in the name of cash preservation and I'm admittedly doing this way too late. If I had realised how terrible I am as an options trader earlier, I would still be sitting pretty right now. So far, my options trading has been a money pit and I've yet to hit it big. Even though many people I've spoken to have indicated they would support my latest marketing venture, until they all sign on the dotted line, I'm super anxious.
Last night, I was daydreaming about how if you risk enough, with a move up like GOOG and NFLX after earnings announcement, one can become a millionaire overnight. But getting out with the move up is the real issue here. One can imagine what the spreads were like on NFLX this morning. Prices sometimes literally last 2 seconds at these lofty levels.
Did anyone else notice that Reed Hastings is a FB director slash NFLX CEO?
DAL was a major disappointment for me today and one of the most destructive patterns I've noticed with my trading recently is simultaneously letting go of the biggest winners and leaving myself with the losers. I stopped buying NFLX and AAPL calls, but kept my VXX calls.
To turn this around, my judgment has to get better first of all. Secondly, I can't be overpaying, which I almost always do in hindsight. How can I be more strategic?
NB: WTI falling below $100... No bullish followthrough in Shanghai and Hang Seng + 5-Year and 10-Year yields falling in a major way...
My question is when the SPY In the Skyers will be the Market Makers' next target?
-0.29% SBA
-3.20% Roth IRA
+0.49% DJIA
+0.24% Nasdaq
+0.57% S&P
+0.62% FTSE
+0.54% Eurofirst
+0.13% Nikkei
-0.83% Shanghai
-0.52% Hang Seng
-1.64% WTI
+0.35% Brent
+1.94% Gold
+0.88% Copper
-1.46% Corn
+0.73% EUR/USD
+0.56% GBP/USD
+0.65% EUR/JPY
0.83 Put / Call Ratio
0.064 Treasurys | DTCC GCF Repo Index
0.072 MBS | DTCC GCF Repo Index
+0.82% DJT
+1.29% VIX
-5.45% 5-Year US Treasury Notes
-3.72% 10-Year US Treasury Notes
71% Advancing Issues on NYSE | 65% Up Volume
26% Declining Issues on NYSE | 31% Down Volume
3% Unchanged | 4% Unchanged
434 New Highs | 7 New Lows
53% Advancing Issues on Nasdaq | 48% Up Volume
44% Declining Issues on Nasdaq | 51% Down Volume
3% Unchanged | 1% Unchanged
308 New Highs | 27 New Lows
Today's Major Headlines
AAPL Event Fails To Impress
Hourican To Lead Bank of Cypress
Rabobank Faces Near $1 Billion Libor Fine
US Jobs Report Shows Sluggish Growth
SAC To Shut London Office
Putting In A Buy the Dip Call Order On NFLX...
Looks like some guys are coming in to sell puts, so if I catch some sub $2.00 calls, I'm in!
Out of DAL Oct 25 '13 $25 Calls @ $0.71...
Original strangle = $1.16...
$0.45 haircut if the puts expire, or 38.7%...
Not a good one...
Whoa... What Happened To NFLX? Day's Range: 333.85 - 389.16
P.S. Bob Pisani on CNBC said people were piling on and piling on... Sounds like I'm not the only one who piles on!
Now the ham is apparently starting to get slammed...
Monday, October 21, 2013
HSFTs... Get Me An Ambulance...
I missed out big time on those NFLX calls and it really, really hurts watching the stock skyrocket today just after my calls had expired... I think I had $335 calls, which means if I hadn't been such a cheapo and had bought calls that expired this week instead of trying to save $1 per share on the calls last week, I would have seen gains of just about $55 per share - theoretically. That's real money! Just one of these per month would make me very, very happy. The risk is so low and the profits are so high... Oh, The Diva likes these unilateral triple digit stock price plays!
People spend years in stocks trying to get these gains and with options, it can happen overnight. I better not scream it from the rooftops, or everyone will start trading options and the profits will get arbitraged.
And I didn't just miss out on NFLX, but also AAPL. So I'm pretty ticked off at the moment.
But I did get to speak with my ex-boss briefly today and he was definitely the bigger person in agreeing to support one of my new marketing ideas to tap into a new market and I want to get the whole industry involved. This could get bigger than my trading ego!
Oh, Good Lord, I'm praying for better luck next time! These profits just slipped through my fingers by a hair.
I'm going to catch one! I'm going to catch one! (Stomping my feet...)
Who knows? ZNGA might be it...
-0.63% SBA
-1.18% Roth IRA
-0.05% DJIA
+0.15% Nasdaq
+0.01% S&P
+0.48% FTSE
+0.27% Eurofirst
+0.91% Nikkei
+1.62% Shanghai
+0.05% SENSEX
+0.42% Hang Seng
-1.65% WTI
-0.13% Brent
+0.16% Gold
-0.08% Copper
+0.40% Corn
+0.49% USD/JPY
+0.49% EUR/JPY
0.81 Put / Call Ratio
0.135 Treasurys | DTCC GCF Repo Index
0.134 MBS | DTCC GCF Repo Index
+0.40% DJT
+0.92% VIX
+1.50% 5-Year US Treasury Notes
+0.77% 10-Year US Treasury Notes
47% Advancing Issues on NYSE | 41% Up Volume
50% Declining Issues on NYSE | 57% Down Volume
3% Unchanged | 2% Unchanged
364 New Highs | 13 New Lows
46% Advancing Issues on Nasdaq | 51% Up Volume
50% Declining Issues on Nasdaq | 48% Down Volume
4% Unchanged | 1% Unchanged
376 New Highs | 17 New Lows
Today's Major Headlines
NFLX Earnings Quadruple (And ForexDiva missed it, darn it!)
Into DAL Oct 25 '13 $25 Calls @ $0.55 + Into DAL Oct 25 '13 $24.50 Puts @ $0.61 = $1.11
Earnings announcement tomorrow and analysts are expecting $1.36 vs $0.90 from a year ago...
Into ZNGA Nov 16 '13 $4 Calls @ $0.21 + Into ZNGA Nov 16 '13 $3.50 Puts @ $0.19 = $0.40
Earnings announcement on 24 October 2013...
Let's see if ZNGA can be the new FB or the new GOOG!
I need a move of about 10% in either direction for this play to start profiting...
Out of GOOG Oct 25 '13 $1050 Calls @ $1.88
Original straddle = $2.16...
Calls seem to be slipping fast, so if there's profit-taking, my puts might bounce...
Otherwise, it'll be a $0.28 per share haircut, or 12.96%...
Friday, October 18, 2013
Tradezilla Here...
No luck with Dear Carl Icahn. He probably thinks I'm the biggest no brainer in this market, but this week I've discovered some new moves when your portfolio moves against you...
Jumped into a really weird GOOG strangle in the hopes that there will either be a gravity defying or earth shattering directional move next week. GOOG has been flatlining all day, but was able to hold gains above the $1000 level. It should be bullish, but if it falls flat next week, it could be pretty catastrophic too.
LVS puts were a dud for me, but AMD (-13.59%) was semi-OK and a continuation move or a reversal would yield some results for me next week.
In the meantime, the pain continues for The Economiss as people move into high beta and out of the dividend yielders - or that's what it seems. Even I, as resident Semi-Bear, am moving into the high flyers - such as GOOG, so is the end of the bull run nigh? I think even BK on CNBC is bullish (OMG. LOL. #)...
If I had even a modicum of patience, I would have had some winners in AA, KEY, and even WFC.
-0.41% SBA
-2.66% Roth IRA
+0.18% DJIA
+1.32% Nasdaq
+0.66% S&P
+0.71% FTSE
+0.76% Eurofirst
-0.17% Nikkei
+0.24% Shanghai
+2.29% SENSEXy
+1.06% Hang Seng
+0.17% WTI
+0.91% Brent
-0.76% Gold
-0.15% Copper
-0.56% Corn
0.68 Put / Call Ratio
+1.23% DJT
-3.26% VIX
+0.98% 5-Year US Treasury Notes
+0.08% 10-Year US Treasury Notes
4.28% 30-Year Fixed
3.35% 15-Year Fixed
0.187 Treasurys | DTCC GCF Repo Index
0.193 MBS | DTCC GCF Repo Index
70% Advancing Issues on NYSE | 64% Up Volume
28% Declining Issues on NYSE | 35% Down Volume
2% Unchanged | 1% Unchanged
479 New Highs | 23 New Lows
65% Advancing Issues on Nasdaq | 65% Up Volume
32% Declining Issues on Nasdaq | 33% Down Volume
3% Unchanged | 2% Unchanged
404 New Highs | 13 New Lows
Today's Major Headlines
JPM $4 Billion Deal With US Housing Agency
Al Gore: Carbon Bubble Is Going To Burst - Avoid Oil Stocks
Out of SPXU Oct 19 '13 $19 Puts @ $0.47
Basically got my moola back on this strangle...
If I had just bought the puts, this would have worked out well...
Into AMD Oct 25 '13 $3.50 Puts @ $0.08...
I missed out on big moves on KEY and AA after getting out too early, so in case there's more downside, I'll have some of these $3.50 puts to ride...
Out of AMD Oct 25 '13 $4 Puts @ $0.41...
Original straddle = $0.40...
Looks like people are starting to buy and if so, my calls might see a bounce...
Thursday, October 17, 2013
Oh, Carl Icahn!
I'm always missing out on your NFLX tricks... Next time!
It's too bad I traded in my NFLX calls for some Jack & The Beanstalk type LVS puts. It looks like LVS beat consensus expectations and they're even increasing their dividends. The bulls are probably going to trample all over my puts tomorrow.
Efforts to push my portfolio higher have been futile today. I feel like I'm the villainess in a cartoon with a rain cloud following me wherever I go. Stop stalking me, Naked Put Sellers! I've had enough and I'm not that evil...
After having to reschedule an important conference call, I had some free time to do a tonne of research on high P/E stocks so I can go on a massive put buying spree in hopes of catching an IBM or ISRG type move.
-0.46% SBA
-2.33% Roth IRA
-0.01% DJIA
+0.62% Nasdaq
+0.67% S&P
+0.07% FTSE
+0.19% Eurofirst
+0.83% Nikkei
-0.21% Shanghai
-0.64% SENSEX
-0.57% Hang Seng
-1.58% WTI
-1.48% Brent
+2.96% Gold
-0.61% Copper
+0.17% Corn
+1.06% EUR/USD
+1.35% GBP/USD (whoa... GOLs!)
-0.89% USD/JPY
0.88 Put / Call Ratio
0.255 Treasurys | DTCC GCF Repo Index
0.286 MBS | DTCC GCF Repo Index
+0.16% DJT
-8.36% VIX
-5.09% 5-Year US Treasury Notes
-3.14% 10-Year US Treasury Notes
81% Advancing Issues on NYSE | 78% Up Volume
17% Declining Issues on NYSE | 20% Down Volume
2% Unchanged | 2% Unchanged
337 New Highs | 22 New Lows
65% Advancing Issues on Nasdaq | 61% Up Volume
31% Declining Issues on Nasdaq | 38% Down Volume
4% Unchanged | 1% Unchanged
262 New Highs | 25 New Lows
Today's Major Headlines
FT: Fed Could Taper As Early As December
BBRY Up On Lenovo Interest
GS Fixed Income Trading Worst In Class
Financial Astrology!
And... straight from Wikipedia:
"[Astrologer] Evangeline Adams in 1929 predicted that the stock market would continue to rise in price. On Labor Day, September 2, she told a reporter for radio station WJZ that "the Dow Jones could climb to heaven." The next day the Dow Jones reached a record high, then fell dramatically, not reaching that level again until November 1954."
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