Friday, September 30, 2011

Down Syndrome

Never have I been more frustrated with trading - not even when Lehman occurred. All that could go wrong did, but I noticed something really strange, which is that Friday tends to have more downwards momentum going for it than any other day of the week. This is just anecdotal though.

I'm done and won't do any more buying until evil, heinous $0.99 levels arrive.

-4.65% SBA
-4.23% Roth IRA

-2.16% DJIA
-2.63% Nasdaq
-2.5% S&P

AA Chart

I would feel much more comfortable if we can break above this red level on the AA 5-day chart as a sign of potential reversal. If we can see $9.75 again today, then it's not just wishful thinking.

Corned Beef

New idea: I'm paying attention to the 3-year corn chart since food is really the most basic economic building block.

A triple top formation is playing out right now and so far in the day, corn futures have flopped by about -6.32%.

Can the 50% Fib level indicated below - right about 550 hold - or will we see 2009 levels even on corn?

Into AA @ $9.78

AA will report earnings on 11 October and since it's trading so close to CENX pricing, I thought I'd give it a shot, although it does appear to be in the midst of forming a 5-day H&S.


There are Earnings Announcements on 3 and 4 October as well...

The first big one is YUM on 4 October.

Pleading the Fifth...

the Fifth of October - that is.

I noticed a really cool economic calendar on E*Trade that lists all of the events on a given day. I'm sure it won't be completely accurate, but a list with company earnings announcements categorised by Before, During, and After Market Hours comes up for each day along with estimates as well.

How cool is that? 5 October is the first day in October with earnings! And here are the companies that will be making announcements:

Leave It To FT...

... to hit the nail on the head with a very fitting 'Stocks End Rotten Quarter In Sour Mood' - unfortunately, it may be the final nail in the coffin. Hopefully, the coffin is for the bears, but the bulls are still getting battered in the final trading day of the month.

I've had some stocks in the fridge for way too long and I'm dying of profit starvation...

Let's start chopping already!

Thursday, September 29, 2011

I'll Split It With the IRS

When I was in Hong Kong, thoughts about moving there crossed my mind, but then, I noticed that things were a lot more expensive than I remembered them being. Hong Kong used to be a shopper's paradise, but on this trip, I found this is no longer the case when you're using the USD. Chinese tourists have driven up prices for everything so significantly that it's rather scary and inflation is unpredictable. It was classic too much money chasing too few goods. Over the course of 6 days, I saw 5 women with a Hermes Birkin. No cowhide, thank you. The HK ladies are into crocodile and ostrich!

I visited a tonne of restaurants this time around - something I usually don't do, thinking I'd split it with the IRS. I especially loved Le Soleil Vietnamese Restaurant, L'Atelier de Joel Robuchon at Landmark, Inagiku at the Four Seasons Hotel, and discovered a lovely wheatgerm bubble tea at Greenland Taiwanese Cuisine in Wanchai. On any given day, I'd hop from North Point to Causeway Bay to Wanchai to Central. Taxis are still inexpensive enough that one can basically ride them everywhere, although I used the trains as well - much more reliable than any of my stock market plays lately.

Just when I thought that nothing could be uglier than the stock market, I saw the following in Hong Kong:

Now, it's back to work as I battle the bears and daydream about my next project with 9FM. This has to be a home run for me and I think that once he sees the results of my previous project with him, it'll set the tone for future collaboration possibilities.

As far as trading is concerned, I think we've got a potential arbitrage opportunity with TGB. Gold prices are reflecting December 2011 delivery dates and the TGB earnings announcement is on 10 November 2011. This means that the company still stands to benefit from a year of bullish gold prices, regardless of whether gold now dips. Previous prices have been locked in and the correlation between the movement of gold and TGB share price has remained firmly negative. I contemplated buying more TGB today, but didn't know whether it would be able to hold above $2.50. Finally, we closed above it, albeit not above my preferred 50% daily Fib level.

Yet this is the first time in a while that my portfolio has been able to close by holding onto some gains. So is this the turning point? Let us pray in the confessional booth...

+1.05% SBA
+2.13% Roth IRA

+1.30% DJIA
-0.43% Nasdaq
+0.81% S&P

P.S. Something interesting I learned from a HK taxi driver: certain public projects - such as some tunnels - were funded by private investors who have the right to collect toll for a period of up to 30 years. The government then takes over the tunnels following this period. I really believe we need to start doing this in the US. Our infrastructure is a minimum of 50 years behind other countries. NYC's subway system and bridges are hundreds of years old. Kind of embarrassing if you ask me. I'm quite sure that since Warren Buffett has openly asked Obama to raise taxes on everyone, he'll have no issue with investing in some infrastructure projects that actually give people some ROI.

More Bear Excuses

Nearly $1 Trillion in Excuses for the Bulls:

$400 billion Twist, Bernanke style

Patiently Awaiting Range-bound Price Action On S&P...

That's going to be a major reversal clue - and it may take a few sessions...

Will the bears have any more excuses with Earnings Season around the corner and now that Twist and EFSF are underway?

Imagine Meeting A Margin Call And Then A Few Days Later...

... getting put back up on the chopping block - then getting quote unquote stopped out. I've had that happen to me in the forex years ago.

So, if my intuition is right, it's either happened on JRCC - or is about to happen. This time, it'll be other traders rather than me. It broke a new low today - an evil low that was just 3 cents below the previous low.

Now, it appears a potential 5-day H&S pattern is forming on JRCC. If the right shoulder formation isn't disrupted, then I'm going to watch the H&S target - potentially averaging in there. Circa $3.56 is the all-time low on JRCC and occurred back in 2007, but now that EFSF is the market's new BFF, I think it's slightly safer to average in.

There is a tiny voice within me asking: what if it hits $3.56? So I'm undecided as to whether I should gun for the H&S target of around $6 - or whether I should wait and see if it hits $3.56?

Wednesday, September 28, 2011

WSJ: Vulture Investors Circling John Paulson As Deadline Looms

Those sharks - I mean, bears - are sharper than a thousand knives...

I refuse to believe that Professor Paulson is just resting on his laurels. He must be taking action in a behind-the-scenes way...

Doctor, I Need Some VIX...

Trading isn't so fun anymore, HSFTs! But I have a new trading idea. There's an ascending triangle formation on the 5-day VIX chart that appears to have broken higher, which means we can potentially see 43 on VIX, signaling a potential short term bottom on S&P. If 43 happens, I'm going to look for an inversely correlated stock that fits my daily 50% Fib level criterion - preferably within Nasdaq. I'll then sell when VIX hits 30, which is 2-year horizontal support.

-6.12% SBA
-0.84% Roth IRA

-1.61% DJIA
-2.17% Nasdaq
-2.07% S&P

I'm toying with the idea of selling TGB at a loss so that I can consolidate my capital and get into something that has more upside potential. Whilst the loss on TGB is substantial, it is still slightly more palatable than my losses on JRCC or CENX. This is a loss that I can recover more quickly than my losses on JRCC and CENX, which is why I am considering letting go of TGB.

I need to do something quick, but I am so indecisive - and honestly, lacking a bit of confidence.

Yes... Bernanke's Up Today!

But only after the market closes.

I was listening to an analyst recently on, forgot his name, but he said that what needs to happen now is for earnings expectations to start getting a lot more subdued before we can see a bounce.

Since I usually get killed by the bears during a period where really light data comes in, I'm going to look for light data to knife back.

So far in the day, my SBA is getting trampled on - about -2.82% so far.

I'm researching stocks with 10-day average volume that has ticked up vs its 3 month average for more trading ideas. I've got to start batting, aiming for several winners with my remaining trading capital.

Two-Year VIX vs S&P Charts

Read this From Fake Bull to Angry Bear article and started feeling shaky, but then decided to look at the two-year VIX chart since I always overlook VIX when doing my analysis.

It appears to me that VIX is negatively correlated with S&P a lot of the time and this is very evident on the 2-year timeframe. So do we have good news ahead as VIX seems to have topped out in August 2011?

Last time this happened, we had an extended period of upwards momentum.

I'm eyeing potential support at 30 and then 23.5 on VIX... Lord have mercy and may this horizontal support at 30 hold! I think I'm going to look for another European bank play - maybe, sort of.

Tuesday, September 27, 2011

I'm Just Slightly Perplexed...

Did I miss the Margin Fall? I put in an order to buy JRCC @ $0.99 today. Are we not going there?

Given the way that the bears have been selling us, I'm surprised we haven't seen 2008/2009 prices on some commodities yet. However, I'm going to sound like a bear here... the only thing we have to be cautious about is any potential bear flag formation. If this happens, then I'm ready for JRCC @ $0.99 and CENX @ $1.99.

Things now appear to be going in a better direction for my commodity plays though - including JRCC and CENX, which both closed 1 cent below its daily high. This should be a bullish sign, one that'll hopefully leave me with some peaceful slumber on my flight out of Hong Kong this afternoon. This will be the trip that I'll remember as The One Where I Was Long, Wrong, and In Hong Kong.

Oh, Men of New York... you missed me so much, did you? I'll tell you all about it when I get back...

+3.61% SBA
+4.16% Roth IRA (need a few more days of these to regain my reign)

+2.53% DJIA
+1.35% Nasdaq
+2.33% S&P

P.S. The only bit that worries me slightly is that Nasdaq wasn't able to outpace its counterparts, yet it closed only 2 points below its daily high. Let's see if the sell orders I put in, which will put all of my original positions in profit mode, will get hit.

Monday, September 26, 2011

Margin Fall + Witch Switch

I'm upping my daily Fib to the 61.8% level this week as it appears the bears are cornering us in for the kill.

I've got a new theory though. At some point, people are going to be unable or unwilling to feed the margin calls. So when that happens, the wicked reversal will most likely occur.

It better not happen when I'm on the plane! I've already missed nearly a month of profit taking and I need trading plaisir!

Watching $75 Level On Oil...

When oil broke above $75, things started getting really crazy and the bulls were in full force. Taken together with S&P's break above the Lehman level of circa 1200, we had a nice run up that unfortunately did not last.

We've already broken below the key 1200 level on S&P and oil is hovering near $79. This week, I'm watching oil to see whether the $75 level can become/remain support.

If support becomes resistance, I'm going to look at some forex plays with the GOLs rather than doing anything major with stocks - because let's face it, my hands may be already tied, albeit with one of my Hermes scarves...

I'm reckoning GBP/CHF. What do you reckon would be the best play? Off for one more day in Hong Kong! So exciting!

Saturday, September 24, 2011

What If I Do This?

x = # of original shares

Average in with 0.5x # of shares on JRCC, bringing total to 1.5x # of shares

Hit $8.25 and average out with x number of original shares, leaving me with 0.5x number of shares outstanding.

I'm not saying... just saying.

Dude, Let's Get Some Food...

It appears encouraging so far. In addition to flatlining price action on the daily charts, we have closed above 50% daily Fib levels in a convincingly bullish manner with the exception of CENX, which remains strangely bearish. If you look at the daily charts of BAC, BCS, JRCC, and TGB, the charts all appear very similar... something like this TGB daily chart:

Daily 50% Fib levels:

BAC $6.23 | closed 8 cents above
BCS $8.86 | closed 12 cents above
CENX $9.195 | closed 2.5 cent below
JRCC $7.075 | closed 10.925 cent above
TGB $2.795 | closed 9.5 cents above

This appears to be some form of profit-taking on the bears' part. Laugh all you want, but usually, the way I average in is when my losses get to about 50% of my original entry. I find that if I average in when my loss is 'only' 25%, I need to risk more capital than I'd like and the volatility sometimes works against me, resulting in the need to average in a third time. Mind you, most of the stocks I trade are high beta, so lower beta stocks may react differently. With BAC, I definitely have averaged in too many times already at all the wrong prices. Whatever it is, I was clearly doing something wrong.

I'm thinking Fib level percentages may be key to successfully averaging into positions, but there's still something I'm not grasping, Professor. I'm going to switch vantage points and look at it this way. Suppose we target the 50% Fib level on the 5-day chart as resistance. Using JRCC, which is my worst loser, this level will be about $8.25. Using today's close of $7.18, this is a $1.07 per share gain. Now, I'm going to research a stock that might move this amount or greater over the next few days that'll allow me to buy double the amount of shares as JRCC and I'm going to buy it.

+2.57% SBA
+1.56% Roth IRA

+0.35% DJIA
+1.12% Nasdaq
+0.61% S&P

The signs are there. Nasdaq is running faster than the rest of the crowd already. So ideally, my next play will be from Nasdaq. Which one will it be?

Friday, September 23, 2011

Death by Five Horses

In ancient China, one of the most severe forms of capital punishment involved death by separately tying a convicted felon's limbs and head to five horses that are then sent galloping into different directions. In modern times, there's the death of my portfolio via five different stocks that moved all in one direction at once - the five stocks being BAC, BCS, CENX, JRCC, and TGB. Now that's Machiavellian!

Today's uptick is not pleasing me so far, but it's a start. We need to wait for the market close to see what's really going on here, but I'm secretly eyeing Harry and getting ready to buy him at 2009 levels. I wonder if it'll happen?

Capital Punishment

Day 2 following Bernanke left me questioning my trading strategy and what I did wrong other than not selling even when the profits were so tiny. But that's just it - not selling was what I did wrong. I confess, HSFTs... there were profits before these losses and I'm pondering aloud now how it is that Professor Schlossberg keeps to his rule of never giving back any gains. I'm going to try on my next winning trade - whenever it may be. It's a lesson learned now and I'll mark it down in my notebook - or iPad 2 - as a case of classic resistance. In fact, I've made the same mistake twice here.

Flash back to a little more than a year back when I was going through the HP Incident. If my memory of it is correct, a similar phenomenon occurred where I didn't take profit when I could have, then ended up being the bears' dessert.

Speaking of dessert, other than taking a market beating, I'm having a grand old time in Hong Kong. Instead of shopping, I'm trying out different restaurants everyday. I'm going to post my delectable experience when I get back...

Looking at my portfolio, though, I've nearly lost my appetite and I'll need to focus on gaining more business in Q4. I finally met 9FM in person! Quiet but powerful and definitely quite young, albeit with a solid and commanding presence already... I feel he's got a soft spot for ForexDiva underneath a cool demeanour - or he's going to develop one anyway! I already have one for him - sort of. I've decided I like him enough to want him to fill my wallet again.

I met with a few other industry professionals and have a good feeling that things will turn out well in spite of it all. There may be a few projects here and there, but I'm not attached in any way. I'll be OK for some time even with my portfolio the way it is. I've set aside cash for expenses and took measures to minimise negative cashflow.

Sell me bears, but I'm going to fight back and arbitrage you at bargain basement prices! If a $400 billion Twist can't appease you, nothing will...

JPM broke below $30 and though I said I would eye $24.99 or thereabouts for my Machiavellian comeback, it already closed above its daily 50% Fib level of $29.08 today, fighting back from its $28.53 daily low. Could this be a positive sign amidst the clouds?

I pose the question: what do the best traders do when faced with a portfolio with losses of my magnitude? How do they fight back and turn a losing trade into a winning one?

I have more questions than answers, but I'm going to do everything to make sure that I turn this around so that I can reign as Queen of Green in Divaland once again.

First thing I'm going to look at is when Nasdaq starts to turn bullish again. Then, I'm going to buy one of the worst losing trades on Nasdaq over the past 10 days - which may or may not turn out to be one of my holdings. I'm going to continue using my daily 50% Fib level as a gauge. This indicator has been right; I failed to execute and trade it. Now I'm going to do it.

We ticked up on Nasdaq on the close, but it fell 2.27 points short of broaching its daily 50% Fib level of 2457.27. Similarly, CENX also failed the daily 50% Fib test by 4 cents. It took some effort not to use my Swiss jokes here, but a fail is a fail.

The waiting continues for the tides to turn in the bulls' favour. Get your surf boards ready... we're going to continue trading and riding the waves!

-6.06% SBA (losses are already less than yesterday, which I feel is a sign of slowing selling pressure)
-4.39% Roth IRA

-3.51% DJIA
-3.25% Nasdaq
-3.19% S&P

-4.66% Eurofirst 300
-4.67% FTSE (GOLs... naughty, naughty!)

For now, I'm off to see more prospects... wish me luck - or the pluck to face the world with losses like mine!

Thursday, September 22, 2011

6.14% Dividend Yield On CS...

I didn't even notice this before, but is that the bears illogically taking it to the extreme?

CS is already trading at below 1 P/S and P/B levels with a tonne of cash on the balance sheet.

Throughout recent European debt talks, it has rejected its 52WL of $22.23. This level looks very close to its 2009 5-year low and no one has even defaulted just yet - if ever.

If CS goes up, or even remains stable, and JPM is able to reject its most recent low, that's a good enough indicator for me to give it another shot.

Wednesday, September 21, 2011

ForexDiva, Take Off Your Jacket...

Let's face it... I didn't even have time to take off my jacket in today's episode of Sell's Kitchen. Someone mysteriously took off my glasses, unbuttoned my price levels, and pushed me gently into the wave - or The Twist, rather. And that someone, unfortunately, was me. Here I am in Hong Kong, thinking I'd have some fun along with my business development, sleeping through most of the trading day since my 9 am is Wall Street's 9 pm, but instead, the profits I was hoping to make ended up in someone else's portfolio in a big time Machiavellian world class way. Seriously.

I need to do something... but what? At the very least, I know that when Fisher, Kocherlakota, and Plosser ever speak, I should watch out.

I've only got one option in my arsenal, and that is to average in to the strongest stocks at the moment of greatest pain. That is one thing I didn't do right when Lehman hit, which in hindsight, I should have done.

If I theoretically cut all my recent losing positions right now, I would reverse most of my recent gains and be left with some pennies... should I do it tomorrow?

No, I'm not going to do it just yet. Something significant has changed today - and that is, volume ticked up by a whole lot on most of the stocks I've been watching. It may appear in the form of selling pressure, but if anything was missing over the past few weeks I've been stuck in this Dante's Inferno Paolo & Francesca type of position, it was volume. And now it's back - for better, or for worse!

JPM was sold down to $30.34 (-5.92%) today and if it breaks below $30 to the $20's, I'm going to view it as the bears illogically taking it to the extreme. I think around $24.99 on JPM is going to be my signal to act - and I've literally got one bullet left...

-8.07% SBA
-4.09% Roth IRA

-6.72% CENX
-14.57% JRCC
-7.54% BAC

-2.49% DJIA
-2.01% Nasdaq
-2.94% S&P

If I were dead, I would be rolling over in my grave... Wait, I might already be dead? How are my vitals, Doctor? Come closer and have a look...

Friday, September 16, 2011

Come In the Confessional Booth With ForexDiva

I confess... I was too greedy and I shouldn't have gotten into two positions on the same day (i.e. JRCC + CENX). I had a chance to sell JRCC earlier, but refused to back down when it got rejected at $10.50 and am now suffering the consequences. It's been 10 days since I've taken profit and boy am I yearning and burning. The more savvy traders are already firmly in the money and I'm left with the crumbs.

The bears dished up some Peanut Butter & Smelly in today's episode of Sell's Kitchen, leaving me feeling so exasperated. I'm stuck right in that area where I can't get enough profits, but can't leave my positions for fear of missing out on some key data announcements next week. That fear of missing out is what's getting me now - and something has to give.

It'll either get really fun or really painful. From the way CENX prices keep breaking and closing higher, it appears we've got enough bulls in our corner. $11.38 is the daily 50% Fib level on CENX and we not only closed above it, but also closed above the key psychological level of $11.50. Will there be more upside next week?

But JRCC leaves me so ticked off it's not even funny. I tried selling yesterday, but E*Trade fed me some excuse about not being able to cancel my current sell order, which prevented me from placing an Extended Hours trade. Either way, I've got to solve this Regulation T conundrum. My Dad suggested that I switch to a margin account whilst only trading on cash. I don't trust myself enough to do that. In case I make one trade too many - and that trade turns out to be a losing one - I'll have a bigger problem than the one I've got now. What do I do?

-1.82% SBA
+0.73% Roth IRA (hoping, praying for the Roth IRA to keep going up)

+0.66% DJIA
+0.58% Nasdaq
+0.57% S&P

I'm going to test out a new theory... if I've been in a position for 10 days, I'm going to look at the 10-day chart. If I've been in a position for 100 days, I'll look at the 100-day chart.

Right now, what's sure is that my profits are barely there and I can't just stand still like this.

Happy Shiny Weekend... off to HK on Monday - and that truly excites me!

This Just In...

ForexDiva's portfolio is suffering from a chart attack after having been knifed both ways on JRCC, TGB, BAC, and CENX.

"The bears were fast and fierce, but what I don't understand is how UBS is still +4.03% right now. UBS... the one that's in a $2 billion mess..." the diva remarked in disbelief, pools of tears slowly forming within eyes reminiscent of a deer in headlights.

"I had wanted to sell before traveling to Hong Kong, but since there's some manufacturing data early next week, I may have to hold on until after FOMC - perhaps right before HSBC Flash Manufacturing PMI," ForexDiva reflected with a sigh, secretly whispering: "What is that by the way?"

Thursday, September 15, 2011


Since JRCC closed in the red today, right on its 50% daily Fib level, I'm going to attempt to sell in Extended Hours Trading, then use the proceeds to trade the financial sector - if I can get in before FOMC next week.

Failing that, I might buy JRCC back on a retracement.

I missed some opportunities with JRCC - could have sold yesterday, but was waiting for a break higher...

It Was Exciting!

The bears got a dose of co-ordinated Central Bank action today from the Fed, ECB, SNB, BOE, and BOJ to boost liquidity in the global marketplace. So Paul Revere literally came riding through, turning the bears into headless horsemen in an instant.

My new favourite level to watch - the 50% daily Fib level - is proving to be a blessing. With the exception of JRCC, which didn't form a new high, all other stocks I've been following have broken through resistance levels today. Could more bullishness be ahead?

The key question is... since there was co-ordinated Central Bank action today, will that lessen the impact of Bernanke's Twist next week - or will it strengthen it? If today's action was a success, then the bears will certainly be more jittery than usual. They do not want to be short with Twist just around the corner, do they? I need to be in a play that's got a lot more short interest than the ones I'm currently holding. The greater the short interest, the more bears to grill. Gotta do some more research tonight...

For now, here's a list of 50% daily Fib levels for the stocks that are still in my portfolio [that I am actively trading]:

BAC $7.235, closed above it
CENX $11.37, closed above it
JRCC $10.15, closed right on it at the last minutes of trading - this one was exciting to watch
TGB $3.489, closed right above it
BCS $10.095, closed above it and pretty near daily high

We appear to have strong prices - backed by Central Bankers who are ready and willing to give the market the liquidity it needs. I'm in stocks that are ticking up, but not enough! For more pleasurable price action, I think I need to get into some more financial sector stocks. BCS may not have been such a bad buy after all, but let's see if we get to roast any more bears before we pass any judgment...

+1.79% SBA
+1.58% Roth IRA

+1.66% DJIA
+1.34% Nasdaq
+1.72% S&P

Bid & Ask Sizes No Longer Accurate Indicator on CENX

Or so it seems. Yesterday, CENX knifed through several resistance levels with very heavy ask blocks. Today's trading volume also appears lighter than normal given we have just one hour left to trading. Volume at this point hasn't even reached half of the average volume over the past 10 days and yet prices keep edging higher, albeit very slowly.

3-month average volume is also considerably higher than 10-day average volume on CENX, which makes me think that the downwards price spiral we had encountered over the past few months could soon be a thing of the past.

If we can close above the 50% daily Fib again today, I'm going to move my target sell up a bit higher - perhaps to target the 10-day charts.

Out of PAL, Into TGB

Just read on the PAL web site that the company is aware of a potential lawsuit, so got out of PAL and got into TGB.

TGB entry @ $3.53...

Wednesday, September 14, 2011

I Started Out the Day...

feeling pretty helpless and dejected after missing the opening sell. Retail sales disappointed, but the GOLs were still pushing prices higher with their optimistic rose-coloured but dark-framed glasses. So I thought... it's scary out there, but if the GOLs aren't compromising, I shouldn't either.

So I held onto my positions and the bulls united in declaring war on the bears, thinking if the 5-day 50% Fib levels hold, then there'll be financial liberty and justice for all.

We closed the day by knifing our way towards a powerful break of a highly stubborn resistance level at about $11.14 on CENX, which just opened the flood gates for further upside, reaching a new high and closing the day just 4 cents above the 5-day 50% Fib level and $0.105 above the daily 50% Fib level.

JRCC moved in a similar fashion, but closing just a mere $0.00885 below its daily 50% Fib level and about $0.15 higher than the 5-day 50% Fib level.

On the PAL front, we closed $0.05 above the daily 50% Fib and $0.04 above the 5-day 50% Fib.
I continue to remain in position, hoping for the best, but will be selling at the first chance I get since I want to be out of some positions right before Hong Kong. I need to play my cards right. I get one shot before Regulation T ties me up again, so if I sell at a level that's too low, I'll need to wait one week before more action.

My trading is playing its role of limiting my negative cash flow situation, boosting my confidence slightly, and just making me feel a lot more productive overall.

But my heart is in making my business grow - and showing the world what ForexDiva is all about. I'm working on new sales collateral, a new Web site, and a business plan to help me focus. I need to crystallise what I really want to be doing with my business. And HK will be another step forward for me.

+0.88% SBA
+1.07% Roth IRA

+1.27% DJIA
+1.60% Nasdaq
+1.35% S&P

Nasdaq closed above its 5-day 50% Fib level, so it appears we may have more bullishness ahead.

Will we make history tomorrow by taking out those 5-day highs? Who should we cast as Paul Revere in this epic made-for-television market drama? It appears both Bernanke and Trichet will speak tomorrow...

CENX: Declaration of Independence

OK, I was looking at the 5-day chart on CENX. If it closes above the 5-day 50% Fib level of $11.14 today, I'm going to keep my position. But if it fails, I'm going to have to call it a play - perhaps after Philly Fed. I've got my doubts, HSFTs - especially since Philly Fed gave my cent a dent last month.

There's literally a mob of selling before me on CENX and with weaker than expected retail sales, I'm left wondering whether tomorrow's US CPI and Philly Fed will do anything to resuscitate my soggy froggy of a portfolio.

Help... Coral's stuck in kelp...

Too Many Crooks In the Kitchen...

... can't even get a bid in edgewise.

So started thinking... maybe I should look into something to trade that is correlated with US Treasuries since Bernanke wants to play a game of 'Twist.'

Then, I found this on the NY Fed Web site detailing the very interesting notion that the NY Fed has presented about Treasury yield curves being leading indicators to future economic activity.

What Are the GOLs So Happy About?

I missed the opening sell and now I'm going to try to break 1% above it on some positions...

I don't want to be holding onto anything before I go to HK, even though it's very tempting with the Bernankees up for bat in just a few days.

Tuesday, September 13, 2011

Bearly There

We left the bears with a full frontal retracement today as prices rose alongside glimmers of hope driven by China's potential investment in Italian bonds and more US data on the horizon tomorrow, including retail sales and PPI. Out of the UK, we have Professor King speaking. Will he say something helpful or will the GOLs continue to knife BCS?

I must have sounded drunker than usual yesterday, but I discovered a new strategy to be in the market all the time more profitably without being a bear. Essentially, I need to find a way to buy profitably even with the bears' omnipresence. My idea is to use the 50% daily Fib level as a way to guess whether we'll have more bullish or bearish conditions the day after. I've noticed that the 50% daily Fib level has been quite accurate at indicating further upside or potential downside on the morrow.

So if we close above the 50% daily Fib, I'll continue riding until I see a bearish sign - such as flatlining prices or a news event that may increase volatility. And if we close below the 50% daily Fib level, I'll need to target buying the daily low of the following trading day. Right now, I'm going to use arbitrary percentages and previous support levels as price targets since I don't have a better way of catching a market bottom.

I have to give credit where credit is due. I first learned about a similar strategy by reading Ed Ponsi's forex trading book. He has a trend riding strategy where he uses - I believe it was MAs - as a gauge. [I added the evil bit about buying a dip and I'll try to sell at an arbitrary percentage in an effort to give the bears a retracement they won't soon forget.]

What do you think, HSFTs? Will my new Bearly There Strategy work? I'm going to try it out. Anything must be better than sitting through pins and needles with your capital all tied up through a financial mini maelstrom such as the Obama Jobs Creation Speech + G7 Meeting + two days of very light data.

+1.31% SBA
+1.42% Roth IRA (still haven't decided what to do about this naughty portfolio... Harry, are you there?)

+0.40% DJIA
+1.49% Nasdaq
+0.91% S&P

I was wondering why Shanghai and HK appeared to have sold off today, but it was because there was a bank holiday and they weren't even open. Duh! And I'm Chinese. I'm supposed to know this stuff. Uh oh... I forgot to call my parents even though we had dinner this weekend... I'm naughtier than my Roth IRA!

P.S. Ed Ponsi has openly denied being related to the scheme in case anyone's wondering.

Monday, September 12, 2011

If There's A Kill, There's A Way

I've been experiencing mifi issues, so I'm blahing from my phone right now, which just shows if you're passionate enough about something, you'll find a way to make it happen in spite of the circumstances. Please excuse my formatting and any typos though. I'll get straight to the point! Am I ticked off with the bears and their sell hath no fury ways? Sure. But I also made a pretty important discovery - and that is a potential way to be in the market every day without being a bear! For we hate those short sellers, oh we do! If anyone thinks this will turn me into a bear, think again. We happened to close above my favourite level on CENX, PAL, and BCS today, although JRCC still remains weak. Overall, I nearly got baked, but I'm feeling a lot more relieved and slightly more bullish upon discovering that in the market, if there's a kill, there's a way! -0.74% SBA +0.15% Roth IRA +0.63% DJIA +1.10% Nasdaq +0.70% S&P... And tomorrow's kill? Could it be the bears? Get the market.cauldrons ready, market buddies!

All Bears Are Not Created Equal

It's turning out to be beary scary as we endure another trading session with very light data, but also very light volume - so far.

I thought I would look to the GOLs for a clue as to what we can expect next.

They started out the day with a frantic nosedive of a market open, hitting a low of 5059 on the FTSE and closing the day at 5130. However, that's still 7 points below the 50% daily Fib level. Is it a clear enough rejection of the 5000 level or will more tears be shed?

Why are we doing this, GOLs? I just renamed my blog to ForexDiva's 2 Percent In Investing... don't make me rename it to ForexDiva's Death In Day Trading!

What the Luck!

It seems my recent lucky profit-taking run was just that - quote and unquote luck - as I struggle in today's trading session with another string of paper losses the likes of which I haven't seen in quite a while.

If I learned anything by taking profit, it's that % gains or losses on the full account are obviously much more substantial compared to those taken on partial positions.

So to suddenly see a greater % loss on the full account is painful.

I'm going to have to keep an eye on volume to determine if I should to sell something today.

Friday, September 9, 2011

Night Mare

Little Red Riding Hood is back and we're going to go riding into the night - or the weekend, rather!

It got bad today - just as I feared and worse! In hindsight, the best thing I could have done was sell during Extended Hours Trading yesterday, but how would liquidity have been? I didn't notice that much volume yesterday.

I learned something major today. CENX and JRCC both hit a high today and what I could have done was sell then - or close enough to it - to buy back on a dip. If I had done that, I would have taken a small loss and I would have gained back more profits on the way back up if I had caught the low. The keyword is if. If I got it perfectly, I would have gained. If not, then I would have been knifing left and right and just aiming into hot air. The only gainer would be my market buddy E*Trade.

I'm going to study this theory a little bit more and see how I can put it into practice.

Another question mark I have is whether there will be any impact on CENX relating to the SNB Franc action. Glencore Traders must be trading with the Franc. Will currency movements affect my long term prospects of trading CENX - or will I need to look for a new play?

One thing's certain. To be able to day trade, I need to build up a stronger personality and move with market action. Prices still closed veering towards the weak side today, with CENX closing 4 cents below its daily 50% Fib level and JRCC 7 cents below its daily 50% Fib level. My only hope is the strong bidding volume on CENX where I noticed an alpha bid block of 5 figures during the final minutes of trading. Did it mean anything or will the 50% daily Fib level take precedence?

Based on the uncertain political environment, how the G7 Meeting will play out is anyone's guess - particularly the ECB drama with Professor Stark's resignation.

I didn't do enough homework, but if I had seen the G7 Meeting on the event calendar, I wonder if I would still have traded the way I did.

Next week's a new week as we look towards the All Important Day of 21 September 2011 when the Bernankees will hopefully do a better job than they did yesterday.

-1.91% SBA (it hurt)
-3.48% Roth IRA (that hurt even more)

-2.69% DJIA
-2.42% Nasdaq
-2.67% S&P

Happy Shiny Weekend - don't knife me next week... I'm aiming to rebalance my Roth IRA!

Do You Wanna Be PALs?

Into PAL @ $3.4399...

I Missed One Key Detail

I overlooked the G7 Meeting this weekend.

Right now, I really, truly hate my Roth IRA and I'm going to have to put my conniving, manipulative side to good use by scheming up ways to kick it into high gear.

I'm seeing triangles - but that's only based on the premise that there's going to be support. And right now, I can be as delusional as Obama.

But other than not being concrete enough, I thought Obama actually showed his patriotic side quite well. Who knew he could be so hawkish?

Do what Bill did minus Monica Lewinsky: free trade agreements, raise the minimum wage. Go one step further... there are more people using illegal drugs in the US (22 million) than there are unemployed (14 million). But there are more people consuming alcohol (133 million) than there are drug users and unemployed put together (36 million). I say raise taxes on alcohol, add free trade agreements, raise the minimum wage, economic incentives that make it easier for foreigners to invest in US real estate. If we really get desperate, legalise some forms of drug use like the Netherlands. (And obviously tax it.)

I'm going to do my part by watching support and resistance levels - and also praying that I'll be able to fly under the radar today. But with BAC, BCS, CENX, and JRCC on the balance sheet in a major way, things are looking heavy. I hope I don't get... smoked (gulp).

Thursday, September 8, 2011

I Need To Be Very Careful

With today's buying spree, I am on the verge of investing too much capital. Even though it appears I've been trading a lot, till today, I have kept a bit of a buffer and have maintained my discipline. Technically, my investable capital has increased by about +32.7% with my recent profit-taking. However, if I invest it all, I also risk getting hit.

And now, I'm even trading imaginary trends. That's a very dangerous game - that is.

Not only did I miss my original bid of $11.11 on CENX by being a bit too bullish, I also bid JRCC up. I could go on the chopping block tomorrow because prices are still weak. If approval ratings are any indication, no one really believes in Obama anymore, so it could get bad tomorrow. The doubts are starting to surface, but if I'm right, the profit taking could get really fun too.

Still I would like to know: who $9.99'ed me on BCS? I didn't get to $9.99 anyone and I'm pretty ticked off about that!

My Roth IRA seems to be in a downwards spiral and I was so close to selling off NMR or MFG and getting into a hotter play, but something stopped me - maybe the 90-day Regulation T rule had something to do with it. If I'm going to sell, I'm going to try to sell on a day when the market's up because I would have a greater chance of getting a better price - maybe, sort of. So maybe, sort of is totally my thing with 9FM. We always say it. Sort of.

-1.37% SBA
-2.66% Roth IRA (I hate my Roth IRA and I need to shape it up!)

-1.04% DJIA
-0.78% Nasdaq
-1.06% S&P

Gotta get some lunch...

Into JRCC @ $10.25

Bid it up slightly based on the premise that the market sell-off isn't as sharp as expected.

Plus, O'Bahama, I mean Obama, is giving a job creation speech about 3 years too late today and the speech is expected to touch on infrastructure.

I thought about getting into a steel company, but coal is used not only for electricity, but also steel production.

Hopefully, I didn't overpay!

Into CENX at $11.23

Really wanted to go for $11.11, very near my original entry, but as this could turn into an ascending triangle in an imaginary trendship on the 5-day chart kind of way, I wanted to be holding something that's proven rock solid for my profits lately.

P.S. Moved my JRCC bid down a bit to adjust for taking on extra risk with the Glencore Traders...

Added One-Cancels All On

TGB and PAL for potential retracement scenario...

OMG... 6 more minutes till the Professor comes...

The Glasses Are Off: Where's the Professor?

It seems everyone got to the classroom a little early today and Professor Bernanke's class only starts at 1:30 pm.

Volume appears in favour of the bid side so far, but prices aren't moving much - with quiet whispers amongst the stock market studious spreading conjecture and contemplation about what could happen with today's market lecture. All ears are eager for 7 o'clock as the Principal has hinted at an extra credit assignment that can boost our score by many pips.

I'm concerned that I won't get to play in the sand today, but I'm in the pool with BCS already - and at the deeper end of the pool is BAC. Judging from the GOLs' reaction to LON:BARC today, it's slightly chilly out there. Anyone have a fluffy Ralph Lauren towel?

Did I get in the right play? It remains to be seen as my conniving JRCC and CENX potential retracement buy orders have yet to be hit. Will the market go straight up? And should I get in before class?

Wednesday, September 7, 2011

General Foe's Chicken

The bears went from sell-ebrate to celibate in a heartbeat today, but I sold CENX and JRCC on a profit-taking binge that I hope I won't come to regret tomorrow. Usually, these are the types of bullish conditions that I love to buy, but profits were on the table and instead of ordering in, I ate what was in the fridge. I've still got some BAC left...

I bought BCS today with the aspiration that the GOLs will rise to prominence for tomorrow's BOE/ECB rate decisions and a string of other UK data through to next week.

Tomorrow's game plan: buy CENX and JRCC back on a retracement before or after Bernanke. If anything's a sure thing, choppiness should be a given and I'm looking to play it.

Right now, what I'm banking on is for there to be more volatility tomorrow. If there isn't, then I might have been better holding onto my shares today. But either way, there's risk - risk getting paper losses or risk missing out on more profits. I pray I did the right thing, but just in case, I'm going to have to spend time tonight thinking of other potential courses of price action.

+1.97% SBA (does not include profit taking, which is now 'off-balance sheet')
+2.17% Roth IRA

+2.47% DJIA
+3.04% Nasdaq
+2.86% S&P