Wednesday, November 30, 2011

You & Me: In the Confessional Booth Right Now...


Last night, after receiving a simple email from 9FM, I spent the night tossing and turning - unable to sleep. All I wanted to do was give him a quick call and tell him how we were financially made for each other. But I decided to wait it out since we've only got but a few more weeks to go.

After such a restless night, I certainly didn't expect the holiday surprise that His Royal Highness, the one and only, Benjamin Shalom had planned for the bears.

Today could have been even more beautiful, but I let go of JRCC way too soon and as I was doing it, I knew it, but I did it anyway. It's become a pattern for me and I've still got the blindspot. Perhaps I need a new prescription for my lenses? What am I not seeing here other than the fact that I'm buying too early during a downtrend and selling too early during an uptrend? Ultimately, this is what kills most traders and after spending so much time on the markets, it's still the single-most important factor that continues to undermine my success and market credibility.

Next time, I must remember: if I should have taken the third bullish signal on the way down, I must at least force myself to take the second or third signal to sell on the way up. It's only fair!
Oh, but those glorious profits were nothing to be ashamed of... yet, if discipline trumped desire, I would most definitely be a lot better off since JRCC ended the day +21.38%.

It's not often that we get global co-ordinated Central Bank Action, but this year, we've had at least two instances. This time, our benefactors included the Fed, BOE, ECB, SNB, BOJ, and the Bank of Canada, as well as emergency response from China. China has kept its cards very close to its chest, but two major Bwahaha movements have been revealed this week, including unveiling its outright desire to invest in western infrastructure as well as today's bank reserve requirement slashing.

Hopefully, these series of stabs were enough to keep the bears in despair. Brazil could take action shortly - and I wonder about India too? What type of karma suture fun could the Yummy Financial Maharajas be planning?

The FT puts it very succinctly: Banks Ready To Act Pre-emptively...

+5.55% SBA
+5.36% Roth IRA

+4.24% DJIA
+4.17% Nasdaq
+4.33% S&P

+3.16% FTSE
+3.60% Eurofirst

-3.27% Shanghai
+0.72% SENSEX

+0.45% WTI Crude
-0.40% Brent Crude

+1.83% Gold
+5.58% Copper
+0.67% Corn

+0.92% EUR/USD
+0.58% GBP/USD

-9.27% VIX

+21.38% JRCC
+12.90% CENX
+7.30% BAC
+9.57% HWD


Tomorrow's Natural Gas Storage Fun Day! I missed out last week, but I'm going to give it another go this week. We've also got Unemployment as well as ISM Manufacturing.



Oh, I Feel So Dumb Right Now!


I could have gotten out of the full JRCC position in the plus if I had just waited another 3 hours...

I wonder if buying on a dip will be considered wishful thinking now?



What the (Pending Home Sales)?


+10.4% m/m?

Someone pinch me for having sold JRCC so early...


OMG... That Was My 9th Time With JRCC!


And it's still as exhilarating as the first...

Profit taking really can be so much fun!

The Glencore Traders and I have only done it six times so far, but the most memorable by far must be with 9FM.



Out of Partial JRCC @ $7.54...


I know... I know... but I haven't taken profit in literally ages!

Will ride rest of the position through, though.

This was the partial entry @ $6.59 per share...

Profit [per share] of $0.95, or +14.41%...

Thank God for co-ordinated Central Bank Action!




Tuesday, November 29, 2011

Market Buddies... Janet's Yellen






Four Bankruptcies, But No Funeral...


Yesterday, I was reflecting on my quote unquote luck. Over the course of the past few years, I've traded my fair share of bankruptcies (Lehman, WaMu, MF, DYN) and have so far been able to avoid major funereal consequences - with the exception of my recent brush with financial death by trading MF. Today's AMR Chapter 11 could have implicated me as well since I had thought about trading it a few weeks back, but stopped myself.

In contrast, the paper losses I've suffered of late seem to have had a much more significant impact on my portfolio than anything.

I've figured out part of the trading equation, but if I'm suffering from paper losses more than half the time I'm trading, that's a very inefficient and inappropriate use of capital. There has to be a better way - and if anything, next time the market turns bearish, I'm going to trade the second or third bullish signal I get rather than the first since that might actually save me from stepping into too deep of a puddle. Watching VIX has definitely helped somewhat...

I placed a one-cancels-all buy-on-a-dip order on CENX, HERO, or SKS today that didn't get hit. I spent the rest of the day daydreaming about how 9FM and I are going to be like Europe and have a deeper fiscal union. In less than three weeks, we're going to find out the results of my first collaboration with 9FM... Just talking about it makes my heart beat faster! I'm breathless with anticipation of the beautiful fiscal harmony that awaits 9FM and I. Until we get those results, he will doubt my work, but the proof will be in the pudding. And if I'm all hot air, he will see. And if my work is really capable of catapulting him into a whole new stratosphere, it'll be equally apparent.

In my heart of hearts, gaining 9FM's respect will be the ultimate reward because he was pretty hard on me at times, just like the market. But he saved me and gratitude trumps any other feeling I have for him. I wouldn't mind another 9FM...


+0.15% SBA
-1.39% Roth IRA

+0.28% DJIA
-0.47% Nasdaq
+0.22% S&P

+0.46% FTSE
+0.75% Eurofirst
+2.30% Nikkei
+1.23% Shanghai
-0.98% SENSEX

-4.64% VIX

+1.71% WTI Crude
+1.67% Brent Crude

+0.23% Gold
+1.12% Copper
+0.84% Corn

+0.11% EUR/USD
+0.68% GBP/USD



Monday, November 28, 2011

Princess of China


My ultimate idols, Coldplay, wrote me a song! Oh you, use your chart as a weapon, and it Hurts Like Heaven!

Plus, China stepped in and saved the world - for now... Together with record Black Friday sales, the bears started heading for the hills as the bulls seized the fort and served them with an opening gap that must have sent the bears into a fitful hallucinogenic state that is at once painful and disgraceful.

Nasdaq 2593.32, or the annual 50% Fib level, is still 65.98 points away and if things get really crazy, the bulls can easily achieve this within just one session. The previous time we broke and closed above this, the battle got fierce! But the previous time, we also let the bears get away with a few days of chop, so they didn't have to lose their shirts. This time, we zapped them with an opening gap...

Will the move up to Nasdaq 2593.32 coincide with Brent Crude pushing past $109.50? That's been a significant source of resistance and if we break through this, WNR may still have a rebound opportunity.

+3.04% SBA
+2.41% Roth IRA

+2.59% DJIA
+3.52% Nasdaq
+2.92% S&P

+2.87% FTSE
+3.63% Eurofirst
+1.56% Nikkei (Go, go Japanese Housewives!)

+1.18% WTI Crude
+2.01% Brent Crude

+1.91% Gold
+1.98% Corn


I'm going to have to look at some more charts tonight... Due to a lack of discipline, my trading legs were wide open, leaving me with too many losses and barely enough capital to fight back. There's just enough, but I really need to deploy it well and at the right time or my troops will be eating soup for some time.

P.S. CENX +8.11%

P.P.S. VIX -6.79%

P.P.P.S. SENSEX +3.01%



Friday, November 25, 2011

Their Majesties, the GOLs!


It was another sorrowful day for my portfolio. Unfortunately, due to an overnight Black Friday shopping excursion with my family, I missed today's trading session. Seriously, my shopaholism is hereditary!

But what better deal is there than the stock market - with so many stocks trading at nearly 70% off their annual highs?

This is not last season's merchandise and we've even got some high-end, beautifully crafted balance sheets at fire sale prices here. JPM is trading at just 62% of its book value and with just another 15% decline, we're going to get it at a P/S level below 1.0. But I still insist $24.99 is the level to watch on JPM - and we may not even get there, fellow bargain hunters!

My feeling is that the rebound is imminent for several key reasons:

1. the GOLs managed to push FTSE to end the day above the 50% daily Fib level
2. the Tall European Men pushed Eurofirst to end the day above 900, ending the day above the 50% daily Fib
3. Nikkei ended the day with a -0.06% loss that is only symbolically in the red, meaning the bears have very little power left to push further
4. Italian bond yields are already at 8%... By comparison, Corporate AAA bonds are only yielding 4.99%... Municipals A bonds are only yielding 7.86%. If I had a bunch of moola, I wouldn't mind investing in some Italian debt right now - and neither would my Dad.

True, the Belgium downgrade occurred after the GOLs closed the day, but I'm quite sure all the savvy European traders had already heard rumours from all their market buddies before the announcement and had already taken action beforehand accordingly.

I say the First Amendment Rights People have gotten out of control. I can't wait for the day the Eurozone leaders finally step up and serve them a EUR-denominated bailout fund big enough to whip their pips into submission. They don't even deserve to be tied with Hermes scarves either, but Death by A Thousand Slices, another severe form of Ancient Chinese capital punishment? Perhaps.

Let's see how the Japanese Housewives react to this news, though. It'll be our first indicator as to just how much more bearishness is ahead since they're usually fraidier than fraidy.

-1.00% SBA
+0.40% Roth IRA

-0.23% DJIA
-0.75% Nasdaq
-0.27% S&P

+0.72% FTSE
+0.94% Eurofirst

+1.20% WTI Crude
-1.06% Brent Crude

-0.24% Gold
-0.11% Copper
-1.32% Corn

-0.04% EUR/USD
0.00% GBP/USD (further indication that even if the GOLs are spooked, the bears may be wielding a very small sword now)


P.S. My sister's turkey sure was good!



Wednesday, November 23, 2011

Cornography


Let's take a look at corn, one of the most fundamental economic building blocks of the global economy, once again.

I thought corn had already bottomed out yesterday when it managed a very meagre rebound - something it hadn't been able to do in literally days.

However, based on today's market action, it seems the bears have some other plot in mind for this made-for-television real-life trading epic.

Do they want to strip the corn traders all the way down to the one-year lows until everyone's voice turns all husky? If you like puns, there's a bad one for you.

So if the one-year lows are really being targeted, we've still got some more downside to suffer.

We're very close to the October 2011 lows right now, which means the effects of Twist and the European EFSF market action, which is nearly $1 trillion worth of government action, is being mitigated and only new triggers can save us.


I'm thinking QE3 should be just around the corner... and if Bernanke really loves us, we might even get this as a Christmas gift since there are going to be very little hawks left in the Fed and Obama is becoming increasingly open to the idea of economic stimulus.

For now, we need some semblance of consolidation to signal that the bears have finally started to take profit, but I jumped into some more JRCC today.

Two key reasons for my trade:

1. slight MACD bullish divergence
2. from the time I previously sold JRCC, there's already been more than a -35% decline from the top.


-3.12% SBA
-2.78% Roth IRA

-2.05% DJIA
-2.43% Nasdaq
-2.21% S&P

+6.29% VIX

-1.29% FTSE
-1.31% Eurofirst

-2.17% WTI Crude
-1.91% Brent Crude


For this Thanksgiving, I'd like to thank my market buddies - you know who you are - as well as 9FM and Bernanke. Without their monetary protection, I would have been toast ages ago!

Happy Thanksgiving to all - even to the bears...

P.S. Day's trading range... so far, the only pattern I'm noticing is pricing on a downwards trajectory...




Into More JRCC @ $6.59...


'Averaging in' with half my original position size...

Noticed slight MACD bullish divergence on 10-day 15-minute chart...



Tuesday, November 22, 2011

Mmm... Maharajas...


Is it time to open the treasure trunk?

SLT closed the day with a close above yesterday's close, ending in the green - an encouraging sign. During the final few minutes, I kept praying and praying that it would end the day above its 50% daily Fib level of $8.04 too, but unfortunately, all the Maharajas started selling at the last minute - leading to a prominent six figure ask block.

I might be able to have a moment of ecstatic profit taking if this upside on SLT continues.

On the weak side: BAC, JRCC, and WNR.

-0.61% SBA
-0.90% Roth IRA

-0.46% DJIA
-0.07% Nasdaq
-0.28% S&P

-0.30% FTSE
-0.60% Eurofirst

-3.71% VIX, hovering near 31.69

+0.98% WTI Crude
+2.05% Brent Crude

+0.08% Corn

Thank the Lord corn has stopped declining and the spread on WTI and brent is starting to increase again. There may be hope for WNR yet...

P.S. Daily ranges:



Come In the Confessional Booth With ForexDiva


I have been missing in action most of the day in an effort to get some rest to aid my recovery from the flu. I finally succumbed to taking antibiotics - something I never do.

My time-out didn't stop me from praying for two key things to happen now in spite of the downwards revision on US GDP today - and those two key things are:

1. for today's close to be higher than yesterday's close
2. for Nasdaq to close with a higher % gain than its counterparts

Pray with me, HSFTs for we have a little more than 20 minutes to go till we call it a day!


Monday, November 21, 2011

I Hate the Bears!


And I reckon they hate me too. Even with strong selling pressure, I continued to hold onto my shares - something I wouldn't be able to do by trading on margin. That is the power of cash, a power that I wish I could hold onto forever. Yet, if 9FM decides not to fill my wallet, the trading fantasy that I have will become as distant as the gap between current market pricing and the price I paid for my CENX shares.

So what are the bears so fussy about? I thought that even if there's no supercommittee deal, there's going to be an automatic across-the-board deficit-reducing plan worth $1.2 trillion? Now, the FWFOCH are threatening to block even this tiny bit of financial dignity we've got left.

If Bernanke ever decides to run for President, he's already got one vote - mine!

Most of my commodity plays closed the day above the 50% daily Fib level and VIX continues to retrace significantly downwards. We touched slightly above 35 today, but it's becoming evident that this 35 level is very strong resistance.

I wonder if I have missed my opportunity to buy a market bottom? If so, SLT is the closest thing I've got to a market bottom and I'm going to have to become chummy chummy with the Omnipotent Maharajas, Born Rulers of the Future Global Financial Epicentre / Inventors of Tremendous Open Outcry Trading Plaisir...

I'm holding onto the rest of my cash as ammunition in case we do see a break above 35 on VIX, which has the potential to trigger a rise to 45 - at which point, I'll most likely buy again.

-3.16% SBA
-2.75% Roth IRA

-2.11% DJIA
-1.92% Nasdaq
-1.86% S&P


Here's today's edition of the daily range on the stocks in my SBA. One of these days, some of these stocks will become the Crown Prince of my portfolio once again... But when?



The Previous Time There Was A Market Sell-off...


I had a beautiful trading distraction in the form of a luxury-filled trip to Hong Kong, where I met the mouth watering 9FM and spent my time sprinting around the city in the most adorable Hermes sandals.

This time around, it's not as fun as I battle a flu and face a dwindling account - with very little buying support from my market buddies.

I put in some worst case scenario bids and will be watching corn, oil, and JPM. Last time, I believed that the $24.99 level on JPM would be the one to watch for the ultimate sign of extreme bearishness.

I'm going to watch these levels for a clue as to when I can start arbitraging the bears...

This is just the beginning - and not the end - of my profit-taking!!



Friday, November 18, 2011

Why Aren't My Dead Cats Bouncing?


I'm going to be SLT-tier than ever and keep my positions over the weekend. I want to try something new and document the price ranges of the stocks I'm (supposed to be) trading. Over time, this could yield some trading insight as I have a new theory that psychological levels occur in pairs - maybe, sort of.



-0.42% SBA
+0.03% Roth IRA

+0.22% DJIA
-0.60% Nasdaq
-0.04% S&P


Supercommittee: Will We See More Downside Next Week?



I heard many are long BAC and I'm going to look for an opportunity to buy again - perhaps @ $4.99.



This Might Sound Corny...


... but corn prices are now very close to the lows made in October 2011, at the height of bear profit taking frenzy... In comparison, VIX hasn't yet reached the 45.45 level it touched in October 2011. What could it mean?



Fitch: IMF deal for Hungary would be positive step


Probably backed up the truck and swept the street before making this statement...


Into SLT @ $8.4194...


I'm not proud of my wanton desire to make money...

I'm really not. But I hope there's some trading plaisir to be had for being so SLT-ty.



Thursday, November 17, 2011

A Sight For Four Eyes...


My portfolio is in scandalous disarray, having been given a major wardrobe malfunction by the eyeglass-wielding and sarcastically poetic Shakesbears.

We had a day with some beautiful economic data too - the only negative being Philly Fed, which fell short of expectations. Notice how my prices always get unbuttoned during Philly Fed.

Tomorrow, I'm keeping to my virtuous vow of taking one additional position a day on a smaller scale and with smaller profit objectives to align myself with the choppy volatility that has characterised the market of late. I'll force myself to sell the new position before the day ends and I'll attempt to do this everyday, which should get my BFF Stock Broker, E*Trade, really worked up.

-2.53% SBA
-1.56% Roth IRA

-1.13% DJIA
-1.96% Nasdaq
-1.68% S&P

-1.68% FTSE
-1.31% Eurofirst

+3.10% VIX, spiking past 36 at one point today...

-6.85% CENX
-7.24% JRCC
-4.82% TGB
-9.84% WNR (one would think that the stock is called Weiner, but it's actually Western Refining Inc.)


Though things aren't ideal as I ride through several losing positions at once, I'm really proud of the way I've handled my portfolio so far in H2 2011. I banked more profits than losses on my SBA this year and darn it, I made money with my own set of hands and my own pair of glasses.

What really made a big difference was adding one additional metric to my trading - the VIX - and adding one additional tool to my analysis - MarketWatch.

Now, I'm going to take it up a notch with 1-minute and 5-minute charts! Perhaps I'll switch back and forth between the two on an intraday basis... Maybe that's how the professional open outcry traders do it on the trading floor?



Out of PQ @ $6.83...


Loss of $0.04 per share, or -0.58%...

Don't want to be stuck with facing more losses tomorrow...



Dude, In This State of Heightened Volatility...


I'm switching to 1-minute charts...

I probably should have done that ages ago!



Into PQ @ $6.87...


I shall not comment on my current psychological state and do not appreciate anyone who judges me...


Wednesday, November 16, 2011

You Wicked Fitch...


Here I was, pondering where I would go for my first NYC Michelin rated restaurant experience since like many other traders, I was quite confident a Santa Rally will be imminent - as in every other year before us. Now, I'm not so sure, though if the Eurozone was truly doomed, I wonder why we aren't seeing the 1.18 level we last tested when all sell broke loose last year? Pray tell, Professors of Worldwide Finance!

VIX tried to get past 33 towards the final few minutes of trading and for the moment, it seems to be breaking past that resistance towards higher ground. Will we see a further push tomorrow with Unemployment Claims and Philly Fed on the horizon?

I ended the day in pain as CENX (-6.41%), JRCC (-2.91%), TGB (-3.12%), and the newly added WNR (-13.53%) all broke new lows at once. An investor has 5 days to meet a margin call before their broker can place them on the chopping block. CENX and JRCC have been falling for about 5 days. Will we finally get the rebound that I so desire soon?

I declared my intent to day trade yesterday, but failure marked this attempt, exacerbated by a bullish stubbornness that has suddenly overtaken any prevailing logic that has ever guided my trading - if any. The ultimate stab was letting go of HERO too early yesterday, then picking up WNR right before it fell some more.

As I study my entries more carefully, a very interesting pattern seems to be evident. My CENX, JRCC, TGB, and WNR entries were all made below the $0.50 levels on retreating price levels. This seems to be the hallmark of my weak foray. I wonder: if I had chosen my usual evil $0.99 levels, would I have a better chance at redemption?

Thank the Lord that I am still about 46% cash, which leaves me with enough capital to fight back with several bullets if necessary. But I'm not going to feed the downwards frenzy unnecessarily. My eyes will be on VIX and maybe even DXY.

Personally, I think that a stronger dollar would indicate broad-based demand for US denominated assets - including stocks. With oil prices so strong, it's only a matter of time before other resources start to rebound.

-2.35% SBA
-2.94% Roth IRA

-1.58% DJIA
-1.73% Nasdaq
-1.66% S&P

-0.15% FTSE
+0.04% Eurofirst

+7.34% VIX, breaking past resistance at 33 by a slight margin

36 is the next level I'm watching on VIX...


So This Is Why WNR Fell So Much Today...





Behold: His Majesty, the King...


the Peerless Benjamin Shalom Bernanke...


OMG... Why? Why?


What are the market pirates up to?

And WNR just got upgraded to a Conviction Buy by GS too.

How is this happening?



9FM... Is That You?


I hope it is... when will you fill my wallet again? Come closer...





Into WNR @ $14.10...


Almost had a chance to buy it @ $13.99 - almost!

Taking a chance as it's pretty close to the low and who knows why it dropped by about 10% earlier on?


Tuesday, November 15, 2011

There's Potential...


... but I don't like how I'm not taking profit more often since a tonne of capital is still tied up with CENX and JRCC. Imagine the day when I can take profit on all my positions! What a day it'll be...

I'm going to experiment with some other strategies that'll enable me to truly day-trade, starting with tomorrow. But first, I must get out of CENX and JRCC on a profit - and I reckon that day will be arriving quite shortly as both were able to defend their 50% daily Fib levels with poise today.

I'm also waiting on TGB - and as usual, BAC. My Dad and I were discussing BAC one day and we decided that it might make a lot of cents to day-trade BAC. At one point, BAC was putting in directional moves of up to 9%, although lately, it's been less moody.

I'm not so concerned about the lack of upside in my portfolio today, opting instead to look at the potential for more momentum tomorrow - particularly since Nasdaq is showing a lot of fervour and the velocity of the decline coming from European markets is starting to slow drastically:

+0.19% SBA
+0.69% Roth IRA

+0.14% DJIA
+1.09% Nasdaq
+0.48% S&P

-0.03% FTSE
-0.54% Eurofirst

+0.29% VIX

Oil closing above $99 for the first time since July...


Out of HERO @ $3.96...


Had my original target sell @ $4.05, but saw it retracing fast around $4.00, so moved it down gradually to $3.96.

Profit of $0.11 per share, or +2.85%.

Had to act today as I've noticed the past two Crude Oil Inventories sessions, oil equipment companies got served with retracements.

Plus, I want to play Natural Gas Storage Day and am freeing up some cash for both a buy on dip on HERO tomorrow and some NGSD fun on Thursday!



Monday, November 14, 2011

Super Mario (Monti), May I Place My Head On Your Shoulders?


Since it was a very light day in terms of economic data, I decided to look at the 15-minute VIX chart and noticed the following H&S within an H&S formation (note the beautiful colour coordination). Oil, Nasdaq, FTSE, JRCC, HERO, and CENX all ended below their 50% daily Fib levels - spooky, spooky!

However, the JRCC MACD bullish divergence is still on, with Money Flow edging slowly and gradually higher.

I'm holding my ground and patiently waiting for Money Flow on CENX and JRCC to continue to build momentum.

The ideal trigger to put us into a more bullish mindset would be an unexpected increase in retail sales, wouldn't it? If we see that on the morrow, then I expect a drop in VIX just based on this chart alone. VIX can't seem to get past 33 and unless severely negative news comes out of Europe, the bears will need to yield the trading floor.




For now, the bears are still driving and I don't like where we're going:

-1.98% SBA
-0.42% Roth IRA

-0.61% DJIA
-0.80% Nasdaq
-0.96% S&P

+4.63% VIX

-0.47% FTSE
-0.93% Eurofirst

-1.02% WTI Crude

My one regret: not getting hit on SKS, PAL, or WTSLA.



I'm Only Crying Because I'm Cutting Onions...


Who am I kidding here? Today's retracement has been painful, but I'm holding on for dear life even though my portfolio's being knifed and I'm battling a minor flu...

I'm adding three stocks to my watch list today:

SKS (retail sales + earnings announcement play...)
WTSLA (ditto...)
PAL (just because...)

If any of these hit my evil levels, I'm in today!



Friday, November 11, 2011

Hello... Where Are All the Open Outcry Traders?


We had a scandalous start, but a lacklustre finish - with barely any meaningful price action from the open outcry traders towards the end of the day, with choppy price action through and through.

We did manage to hold onto some of the day's gains, but not a lot knifing both ways - particularly on the seemingly landlocked LYG, which has been stuck at one critical psychological price point, not really breaking below - nor breaking above.

I sold early in the day as this is the territory of the market making sharks.

I end the week with a tonne of positions and pray that next week will bring the upside that I miss so very much.

+1.70% SBA
+1.74% Roth IRA

+2.19% DJIA
+2.04% Nasdaq
+1.95% S&P

+1.85% FTSE
+2.18% Eurofirst


Another big day for oil as NYMEX traders close on a 3-month top...

HSW, HSFTs!



Market Buddy Alert


Check out the 1-day 5-minute charts on MarketWatch!

This one's for LYG. Seriously, how cool is this? I say at least try to fake out today's lows - if not yesterday's lows!




Out of LYG @ $1.84...


Profit of $0.11 per share, or +6.35%...

Am looking to buy on a dip...

P.S. Tonne of large ask blocks @ $1.85.

Into JRCC @ $8.4692...


Have been waiting for oversold signal on Money Flow coupled with a MACD bullish divergence - finally happened...

Taken together with better than expected UoM Consumer Sentiment and evidence of more capital expenditures from US corporations such as Caterpillar, there could be more upside for JRCC, which has been selling off for the past several days.

Here's the chart...




Thursday, November 10, 2011

Here's the LYG Chart...


We're on the brink of a MACD crossover.

Money Flow appears to be oversold as well with a daily close above the 25 SMA...

Interesting that the prior month, we had 7.01 million shares short, whilst with the latest figure I could find on short interest (dated 14 October 2011), 5.33 million shares were short. Is this the turning point where the bears are starting to become bulls?





Three Doves, But Not A Lot of Love...


I suppose the FOMC member speeches weren't very important today as it didn't cause a lot of upside to my portfolio. However, I was able to take profit on LDK, which I'm quite happy about. I really wanted to target $3.93, but a tiny voice told me not to be greedy, so I did a quick exit on that one and am looking to play a retracement.

I also had a chance to sell HERO at breakeven, but didn't do so - especially as oil continues to break new highs. Today, oil closed above the 50% daily Fib level once again, so will there be more upside?

I've got several other trades in the SBA oven, including BAC, CENX, EATR, HERO, IDGG, LYG, MFGLQ, and TGB.

I'll have to do more research as I'm not entirely happy with the direction my portfolio has been taking the past week.

I'm eyeing HWD as a potential buying opportunity as it's been listless lately. Oh, my dear Harry... is it because you didn't see me in my Halloween costume?

+0.34% SBA
-1.45% Roth IRA (yes, this portfolio is as good as done and I'll just let it be for the moment since I'm focused on recovery in the SBA)

+0.96% DJIA
+0.13% Nasdaq
+0.86% S&P

-0.28% FTSE
-0.27% Eurofirst

-9.26% VIX


UK PPI and UoM Consumer Sentiment tomorrow...



Into LYG @ $1.73...


Noticed it's been trading in a tight range, so if it tests $1.90 again, this could be a good play...

P.S. Of course, the MACD bullish divergence on the 10-day 15-minute chart appeared quite compelling as well.


Out of LDK @ $3.80...


Profit of $0.25 per share, or +7% gross...

Yippee!!

As usual, looking to potentially buy on a dip if I can do it before Earnings Announcement on 15 November 2011...




Obama: Napolitano can restore market confidence


Plus, U.S. October budget deficit $98 billion vs. -$107.5 billion expected...

This seems to be precisely the time for market makers to knife yesterday's lows by a mere few cents, then drive prices forward once again, doesn't it?

Taseko Mines Beats by $0.05


Still holding onto the position from yesterday as was unable to sell during Extended Hours...

GOLs look like they're in a cheery mood today!

P.S. Jobless claims fall to seven-month low of 390,000 - and US Trade Balance better than expected!!



Wednesday, November 9, 2011

One Way Project: Bernanke, Evans Yellen


One of the craziest trading days to date where all major global stock indices - save for Nikkei and Shanghai - colluded in a spooky downslide that most likely sent all the 9 Figure Men in the world running for the hills. Here I am buying the volatility spike I have been craving for days... I even had CNBC streaming live on my computer - something I never do.

At the risk of adding to yesterday's CENX and HERO losses, I welcomed LDK and TGB to my portfolio today. If I had a greater risk tolerance, I would have been adding some of the day's bigger losers such as NILE (-32.80%) or NOG (-16.06%) - perhaps even BCS (-11.20%).

With LDK, I decided to go with my favourite P/B and P/S below 1 criteria. Moreover, the 10-day 15-minute technicals appeared to be aligning for upside based on MACD bullish divergence as well as an imminent earnings announcement due on 15 November 2011.

Overall, I'm currently 54% cash on the SBA - enough leverage to punch back at the right moment if necessary.

-2.51% SBA (CENX -7.97%)
-4.23% Roth IRA (HWD -7.08%)

-3.20% DJIA
-3.88% Nasdaq
-3.67% S&P

-1.92% FTSE
-1.79% Eurofirst

-2.00% EUR/USD
-1.04% GBP/USD

+31.59% VIX

I'm placing Extended Hours sell orders for TGB and HERO...

Tomorrow's going to be a big day with BOE Official Bank Rate, US Trade Balance, Unemployment Claims, US Federal Budget Balance, and commentary from Bernanke, Evans, and Yellen.



Into LDK @ $3.55...


Oil is trading nearer to its daily high again, suggesting the downside should be relatively contained given today's double digit VIX spike. And notice the bullish divergence building up on the 10-day 15-minute MACD on this LDK chart...

Plus, earnings announcement out on 15 November 2011. It's been selling off for 10 days, so some of the bears will need to take profit soon.





TGB Earnings Announcement Today...


... after the market closes.



Into TGB @ $3.42...


Entered the order yesterday and got hit today...

P.S. Earnings announcement tomorrow!



Bernanke does not discuss rate policy in speech


No!

And I was just debating whether I should use this photo as my wallpaper...