Tuesday, August 31, 2010

I Woke the Neighbours Today...

... but not because of my trading, but that may change in the near future. Skip my JNSB and read on for a potentially beautiful new trade in the making.

Unfortunately, I had a bit of an incident (I love how the British call everything an incident) involving an overactive water heater located under the kitchen sink, which resulted in a major flood of epic proportions.

In any case, everything in my kitchen and living room got drenched. But I learned something about trading from this.

My portfolio has been flooded, but I still love(?) trading. Do I want to stand around and do nothing... or do I start cleaning up? I've missed some major profits by just standing by and doing nothing. I let the market ride me and I didn't like what it was doing. So, I'm going to invest some more moola later on in the year after I'm done with my PDO. Just about two more months to go! Go, go ForexDiva!

I just found an OMG type investment in the financial sector, but since I don't have any excess capital, I'm going to share with all my fellow HSFTs here. It's... (drum roll)... Charles Schwab (SCHW). Whoa, what a balance sheet!

$28.78 billion in cash and only $1.31 billion in debt. However, P/S and P/B are both high. So the question is given the new market circumstances, is this a buy yet? If people are waiting for better levels before they jump, the treasure trunk could be at $8. This would take P/S down to around 2 and P/B to 1.62 if I did my calculations correctly. If I have moola then, I might do some experimenting with SCHW.

And if I don't get in before it starts skyrocketing, then I'll blame it on people who arbitraged me. And if I get sold after getting in the trade, then I'll blame the stop-runners. LOL.

Excuses, excuses!

But seriously, now that I have had some time to do some deep inner reflection about my recent market failures, I now realise that I shouldn't mind at all about prices hitting a certain level of resistance. If prices reach a certain threshold and then retrace, then that also means our risk is relatively contained, doesn't it? Look back on the days when I bought a few market tops with BAC and C into the $50's. That was a lot more painful than a retracement from $19.86 to $12.18 or from $5.11 to $3.11. So, if the market stays this way, then it only means we have to redouble our trading efforts and readjust our strategy.

Oh, yes! We're going to be strategic from now on. We're absolutely going to be the Strategic Sovereign (that's still in debt but soon to be financially free as a bee)!

But today... still:

-0.59% on the SBA
+0.59% on the Roth IRA

Harry, I'm dying for you to fill my wallet...

Monday, August 30, 2010

Back In the Confessional Booth & In the Military Position...

Ouch! If I hired a portfolio manager like me, I'd have no choice but to fire her. I have to admit what a terrible trader I am today. This is getting so lame! My portfolio needs some major TLC and I think I need to start doing damage control with my Roth IRA. I have two positions that are in minor profit (namely Sultan BCS and C) and I can either take a profit now and figure out something better to do with the substantial bit of moola or I can let it continue to retrace just because I've got a major TETSOB + can't admit when I'm wrong self-defeating attitude. Recall that I was lamenting how I messed up by selling my Crown Prince C after Bernanke's JNSB. Now, I have to be all schizophrenic and wonder out loud about whether I should have sold more.

I don't know what I want to do. The problem with me is that I always start out a trade saying that it'll be a 21st century ORTT. Then, when it retraces, I never have the heart to take a loss. And when it finally goes in my favour, I never bank on the organic growth. How can you trade like that? I'm not even selling - only buying. The market was totally taking me along for a ride rather than the other way around. But isn't this what most people are taught to do by their stock brokers? They always tell you you have to average in. But my BFF forex broker never told me that.

Tomorrow, if my Sultan continues to consort with others (which gets me very jealous), I'll sell part of the position for a minor gain and take a wait-and-see approach. In all honesty, I can't let go of C though and it's only because I did my bimbo analysis some time back and still like the risk:reward very much. But having to give up my Sultan of Liquidity? That'll hurt too. Yet my Roth IRA can only move if either C or BCS moves. And I need that moola to move in my favour, which means I've got to do something else with it.

Now that I look back on my relationship with the Sultan, I see $20.52 as having been a critical level. I took the difference between the 52WH and the 52WL and then divided that by half, which is basically the 50% Fibonacci retracement. Since there was price weakness there, we're most likely on the way down now. I'm going to have to test out this theory a bit more. I said I would spend the weekend doing my own homework but ended up doing some other type of homework instead.

I miss my BFF forex broker so much today. I think he's a lot smarter than a lot of people - not least because he was one of the first to sell the EUR/USD way back when.

-0.74% on the SBA, which was recently rebalanced when I sold part of C and bought some CENX
-2.04% on the Roth IRA, which experienced no rebalancing lately

The show must go on even though the sovereign is still in debt...

Friday, August 27, 2010

Bernanke Must Have Swept the Street...

... before his speech. I'm not complaining though. We're the girl on top today. My portfolio got catapulted up a knotch and my Roth IRA beat the S&P slightly.

+1.33% on the SBA

+1.97% on the Roth IRA

My only regret is having sold my Crown Prince and now what was once my hottest position has taken a potential downturn. I sold part of C at $3.90 and part of C at $3.68. I kept part of C in both portfolios. I also jumped in with CENX at $10.25, keeping part of my moola as cold, hard cash. I inadvertently became a bear in hindsight and looking back on what happened after Lehman, it took about six months for the dust to settle down. This time around, we saw selling since late April and we're now four months into the sell-off. Over the weekend, I'm going to analyse some individual stocks to see if I gain any insight. We've got to do our own homework.

Stabilisation should start occurring soon, but in case I'm wrong again, I'm going to continue using forex to hedge my equities portfolio. And within my equities portfolio, I'm going to move back and forth between high beta and high dividend stocks.

Now getting back to the financial hypocrisy... doesn't anyone ever think if Bernanke & Co. would just keep their lips sealed, we would have already seen a very strong recovery? All of the market volatility is actually being caused by our FWFOCH. Trichet probably sold the EUR/USD at 1.57 and Bernanke probably bought all the US equities market bottoms.

Who knows? All I know is that even though he hit a homerun today, I still hate his batting average and don't get how he gets to go down in history as the one who saved Wall Street... Now books like F Wall Street are in fashion. I do own a copy, but haven't read it yet.

Next week, I'll hopefully get to be a major market slut again by jumping from trade to trade.

I reckon it'll be much more profitable than sitting out on the bench. There was a ridiculous article in FT about how all of the money flowed out of equities into bonds and that retail investors have got it right this time. The authors clearly got burned in the equities market or have loaded up on bonds themselves. Plus, back when no one wanted to be in Treasurys, the banks have already loaded up on bonds and are now cashing in on what could turn out to be a very mediocre investment for the retail investors who bought bonds at very high prices. Let's see what happens when Prime Time comes around later on in the year. The final trading quarter is when things start to heat up in the equities market. If Wall Street swept the street, then it can only be a matter of time before I become Queen again...

And if not, then I've got my forex hedging strategy as well.

And yes, this was written by a very bitter woman who clearly got burned in the equities market and have loaded up on bonds.

Happy Weekend, Fellow Stop Runners!

Thursday, August 26, 2010

I Want To Blah About Glencore...

So I opened up FT.com during my Lunchtime Fun session, which has been basically fruitless lately, and saw an article about Glencore posting some extraordinary profits. I was almost certain that my darling CENX would be able to finally get his levels on, but unfortunately that wasn't the case. In fact, I now see selling in Extended Hours Trading. But the people at Glencore obviously know what they're doing and since they seem to hold quite a substantial position in CENX, I'm going to follow their move. I'm admitting I'm small and powerless for once and following the Tall European Men on this one. Glencore's going on my permanent watch list.

I am so confused about the selling of CENX after Glencore's stellar results, but it's the fear of the bear at work. At least I don't have anything to moan about today after a long day of non-stop, stressful work negotiating with the Belgians, who obviously have TETSOBs. Once, I was negotiating with some French guy and he told me that I shouldn't depreciate him. That was the best line ever...

Anyway, my portfolio actually is showing some semblance of bullishness:

+1.78% on the SBA
-0.51% on the Roth IRA

Brent crude had a very nice pop as well...

Soon to occur... my BFF forex broker's going to most likely have daily webinars. How am I going to have a life? I can't possibly attend every one though. But attending the webinar today, I had a new Bwahaha insight and I might just use it to my advantage. Hopefully, it'll be to my advantage. I'll continue to attend the beginner webinars because actually, I can learn a lot from them. My heart is beating so much faster just thinking about it.

We don't have to be better than our forex broker. We just have to be better than the new traders, don't we. And if I can't be better than a new trader, then I might as well stop.

Crude Awakening...

Oh, Lord Almighty! Am I about to find out that I got played by C?

Oil seems to be holding too...

And this 5-day Brent Crude Chart looks kind of promising, doesn't it?

This was beautifully executed, oil traders! Now don't fade us to the downside...

Wednesday, August 25, 2010

My Trading Ego Cost Me...

... and I must now admit it. Oh, how I miss my BFF forex broker too!

I parted with the Crown Prince at $3.68 on another partial position at a minor, laughable profit. It was a moment of "I'll take what I can get," - very little financial dignity there. We're getting back to levels from EOY 2009 with C and if there's going to be a reversal, it's got to start happening soon. I saved a good part of my position so the door's slightly open, but slightly closed now. We might decide to give it one more try before the end of the year. The JPY crosses seem to be holding. I reckon currency traders must be the most intelligent traders ever - the good ones at least. And the bad ones? LOL. We get eatten for lunch by the GOL and the Real Men of New York. Unfortunately, I'm not one of the good ones - yet.

My whole portfolio of equity royalty got hit today - HWD, C, BCS, CENX, BAC. The Imperial Highness, the Crown Prince, the Sultan, etc. all got some major market bullying.

I refuse to give up though. I noticed some puzzling activity going on with CENX in Extended Hours Trading. We've got some charged-up bid sizes and I even saw a five figure bid size. So, I checked the options chains and the precarious situation from several days back looks much more balanced today. I'm waiting for the two-way winking to start happening on the $11 level and for prices to now start heading a bit higher. Could it start heading to $9 first? It might, but it's possible we might not get there. There's much bigger open interest at the $10 level now, so hopefully we're ready to go all the way with CENX. Who knows? Maybe I will be able to see my dream of selling at $12.35 finally get fulfilled.

The Extended Hours trade on CENX is still on. If I can sell within the next few days, I'll take that too. I've put my sell at a price that is much better than what I can get during normal trading hours.

I'll battle on with some of the cash I've freed up, but right about now, it looks much more compelling to complete the rest of my PDO. I've now got a credit score of 902 (go, go ForexDiva!). I went from 755 to 902 in about two years. I have another four figures of debt to go. By the time I'm done, I'll be officially five figures liquid net worth - equivalent to saving about four figures a year for twelve years. My balance sheet will be much, much smaller, but that's the trend, isn't it? And I'm determined to expand it.

Oh, but I had such high hopes for myself this year. I was hoping to be six figures at the minimum, so I'm really very disappointed.

Plus, now that my sister disowned me, I walk around feeling like everyone knows and that I've done something terrible. What about how she swindled, ahem, Madoffed, I mean borrowed five figures from me? So that's being a good family member - better than one who walks around with a bona fide Hermes Kelly and refuses to pay six figures for her brother's tuition, which he didn't even have the courage to lift a finger to apply for one scholarship for.

The thing to remember about bullying is that once any weakness is evident, people pounce on you like you're prey. And we want to be the huntress, don't we? Even if it's just the kind that ends up shooting themselves in the foot...

I'm done complaining about my family legacy and hopefully once my PDO is over, I could get on to the real fun of PPT - premeditated profit taking, every day, all day.

-1.8% on the SBA
-0.95% on the Roth IRA
Minus the trading ego...

Tuesday, August 24, 2010

The Broken Record Bears Said "Go to Sell"...

... and my portfolio suffered with disgrace:

-3.25% on the SBA
-1.87% on the Roth IRA

I'm still waiting patiently for my Extended Hours Trading sell on CENX to be triggered and am getting nearer and nearer to being filled on some potentially highly rewarding forex trades. I initially had a buy order on EUR/JPY placed at 105, but decided to move even lower when all these excuses from the past started resurfacing. This almost got hit - almost being the keyword. And I'm not going to tell anyone where I'm going to buy, but I'm looking to buy some JPY pairs and I'm going to make a play with Franc too.

No one gets remembered for having almost attended Brown University. We've either got to be the worst or the best. This year, I was the worst for having been the Woman Who Tried to Ride the GOL With An Account the Size of A Bike. I started out with big dreams and a small account and I was certain I would end the year with bigger dreams and a bigger account. Unfortunately... with less than four months of trading to go, I'm not sure if this is going to happen. But I'm going to keep trying.

Until oil touches $70 and I know for certain what's going on, I'm going to try the following:

1. Sell CENX during Extended Hours Trading (broken record... broke... en... rec...ord - OK, that's just so annoying that even I must admit it)
2. Try to sell a partial position of C on a bounce and then try to get into NGG... I'm then going to date both C and NGG by selling one and getting into the other - back and forth and to and fro. This could get hot. One's like the guy who likes experimentation and the other's sort of like the accountant type.
3. Watch out for 1 September 2010. It'll either be completely electrifying with Harry or a devastating brush with death. Which will it be?
4. Place some crazy bids on some crazy currency pairs. If oil doesn't hold, then I'm going to join in with the bears and release some best-selling broken records by belting out some Loonie Tunes. People are selling equities and moving into bonds as if, God forbid, Barclays filed for bankruptcy. Nothing's actually happened. Expectations are the only thing that have fallen flat. Since fear and optimism are the main drivers of the forex market, I am now waiting for the inconceivable levels to occur before making a move.

The bond buyers are going to get booed off the stage! Bonds are going to be like the next real estate bubble. When you think about it, it's almost as difficult to get out of a bond as it is to get out of property. One is essentially exchanging a lot of cash for the illusion of a future of steady cash flow. I learned this the hard way with my early JBQ trades (remember ABK?). This does not look good and maybe the best place to be is with His Majesty the King - Actual Cash.

But, I rant! Hmm... The weirdest thing since my sister disowned me is... the only thing that makes me happy is listening to Ghostbusters. I've changed the lyrics somewhat:

If your pips are small
And you risked it all
Who ya gonna call?
Forex Broker!

...Born in the USA...

... if you don't know me right now...

... be your teenage dream tonight...

This Makes Me Want A Swiss Bank Account More Than...

...that See You Later, Alligator Hermes Kelly wallet in the electric Bleu Roy (It's Not About the Shade, It's About the Style) colour...

I don't understand. If there are remarkable investments like NYSE:NGG around (8.45% dividend yield... 4.328 EPS) why are people fleeing to US Treasurys? Why?

I don't care as I haven't got the cash for a play like this... or do I? If I now sell two of my flailing positions, I could get into position with NGG.

I'm going to ponder this. Do I want the safety and security of being in those strong, muscular 8.45% dividend yield arms of NGG or do I want the unpredictable yet potentially romantic and occasionally infuriating smoking hot fiery passion of a High Beta HighFlyer?

Very potent question...

Monday, August 23, 2010

Action! Inspired by The Hung Parliament Down Under

I'm ForexBimbo and I missed the beautiful Hung Parliament in the Land Down Under since I was too entangled with my CENX play to notice that I could have applied the lessons I learned with Professor GOL for a decadent forex coup d'etat. I've got wandering eyes in the forex market, though, with about four crazy price buy orders. If I get plucked any more with my portfolio, I'm looking for downright revenge.

The options chains do not look encouraging on CENX and we closed below the critical $10 level. Together with oil prices that look like they're dying to touch $70, this could be a recipe for a Trading Floor Nightmare. If I didn't have a TETSOB, I would have had the marriage annulled long ago. Do I ever learn? Do I want to learn?

So, should I take the loss now or stand by and watch CENX slide down... down... down and unbutton all the prices all the way to the $7.50 level? I watched my E*Trade trading platform a bit and noticed that there were occasions where bid sizes slightly outnumbered ask sizes. This hasn't been very convincing lately though, as bid sizes on C are similar and we haven't seen C rise above any of the nonsense just yet. It could also be premature to consider further deflationary action on oil a done deal. The $70 level has held its own since about September 2009. But this terrifying time of late August and September when earnings announcements are not quite ready to be unveiled is typical Bear Territory.

I'm putting in a sell order on CENX in Extended Hours trading. With a little bit of patience and a little bit of luck, I might be able to get out without getting seriously plucked.

But I've apparently missed my chance at romance with BAC! CEO Moynihan bought 30,000 shares today, which means I seriously engaged in some self-sabotage by not keeping my trading legs crossed. Initially, I had wanted to use the proceeds from my recent separation with Crown Prince C to buy BAC at below the CFO's level. I decided to move my target price to infomercial levels of only $9.98, so my buy wouldn't have gone through. Now that I look at the options chains again, $9.98 still looks slightly intriguing in a very APKS way.

Now that I'm stuck with CENX, it could be a long wait till the next earnings announcement date of 27 October 2010. CENX is a bit of a loose canon though - being so high beta. Over the next several days, I'm going to place Extended Hours Trading orders on CENX. Wish me luck!

Harry and I have a special rendezvous on 1 September 2010 (subject to misunderestimation). I can't wait for my dear Harry to keep me warm and make me breathless with his high single digit daily gains again. Harry, brush my levels here, there, and everywhere please! Anywhere above the $10 belt is just fine...


-1.3% on the SBA
-0.19% on the Roth IRA

In case anyone's wondering... my Roth IRA is more heavily concentrated in financial sector stocks. My two HBH (High Beta Honeys) - CENX and HWD - are in the SBA.

Friday, August 20, 2010

Confessional Booth Time: Sell Something, Anything... Volume 200810

My CENX play resulted in very little trading plaisir, with my position experiencing a very minor +3% profit at best. This position did not hit the right spot and I entered hoping for some serious upwards momentum with the options expiry occurring on 21 August 2010.

Prices closed slightly below my initial entry level of $10.25 today and I am looking at the September 2010 options for some clue as to what to do. The $10 battleground remains relevant, but the upside doesn't look convincing.

If we do manage to break above $11, then $12.50 is likely. However, the question is will $10 hold? I think we won't know for certain until oil starts doing something definitive. In terms of seasonality, though, miners usually outperform towards the final trading months of the year. So, even though I wanted only a 21st century ORTT with CENX, I'm going to give myself till mid-September. I am going to prevent myself from postponing the sell indefinitely.

Here's what went wrong with this options chain...

I looked back on my notes from previous options chains inspired trades that I've done. Two-sided winking from both the call and put side has to be very prominent. Current prices have to be above a significant amount of put options and there also has to be significant open interest on put options above current market pricing. This means that fear will start driving prices up, resulting in very quick market action.

With the CENX play a few days ago, there was not enough option interest to drive the move up - particularly from the put open interest side. There was some call action, but not much was going on to put any fear in the bears. (So my Mom's actually got some newer dance moves than me, in case anyone's wondering).

What keeps my interest is that hostile bids seem to be dominating the headlines - BHP's hostile bid for Potash and Korea National Oil's hostile bid for Dana Petroleum are two recent examples. Companies have been hoarding cash - a well-known fact.

Maybe I'm delusional and schizophrenic, but my intuition says this could be a large-scale revenge move from the players who didn't get enough out of the previous market bottom that the Lehman bankruptcy caused. Those who didn't get in on the recovery are now going to pluck everyone and do a S&R to the upside. Pure, heartless evil!

M&A's are dominating headlines - not bankruptcies. And this is encouraging, considering that more than $50 billion of M&A proposals occurred this week according to FT.

Until oil gets battered, I'm sticking to my plan and holding onto my equities whilst looking to hedge myself with some timely Bwahaha type forex trades...

-1.45% on the SBA
-0.5% on the Roth IRA

Thursday, August 19, 2010

Comment Allez Vous You Too...

Oooppsss... apparently, it was Look Like A Bull, Act Like A Bear Time and I got it all wrong.

It got really, really ugly today and it left me wondering how much uglier it can get:

-3.21% on the SBA
-1.77% on the Roth IRA

I tried to sell some shares of C and realised I should have done it ages ago. Now, the only excitement I'm going to have over the next few days is a possible chance at profiting with CENX. I actually had a dream about CENX going through the roof and being able to get out at $12.35 after trying unsuccessfully to adjust my sell to $15. I hope this dream comes true. I wouldn't mind being able to sell at $12.35.

The earnings announcement from His Imperial Highness, Harry Winston, is only on 1 September 2010. I always get the date wrong with HWD, but with all the talk about deflation circulating the grapevine, I'm happy I decided to keep Harry in my portfolio. In a deflationary environment, hard assets are apparently supposed to be in high demand. Laugh all you want, but I think stuff like expensive handbags, diamonds (but only the huge ones), and especially art will be able to retain their value in case deflation actually happens. My only question is if this will include gold or not? Gold has been bought up due to inflation fears, but do deflation fears hold too? I do hope Bernanke gets ousted before we get to find out. I am going to start a Bernanke Hate Group if the EUR/USD loses any more value...

We hit The Sky Is Falling Down Levels on some JPY pairs and Franc is so muscular, which definitely makes me very, very scared.

Getting back to the market, I shall now focus on looking at the major miners. If the miners stabilise, then the rest of the market will stabilise.

I doubt the stabilisation will include me though. Let's see how CENX reacts tomorrow...

Wednesday, August 18, 2010

Truly, Madly Creepy: The Financial Hypocrisy Continues...

It's Look Like A Bear, Act Like A Bull Time and here are some indications amidst the financial fog:

1. Some news coming out about Spain's debt being much less costly than anticipated...
2. BHP becoming bitter about the Potash bid with some crazy price strategy...
3. GM being the ultimate financial hypocrite by filing for an IPO...
4. Sultan BCS estimating that Basel III will give US banks a boost, requiring much less capital than previously thought...

I'm not in any forex trades and actually haven't been for a while. However, since I'm so rose-coloured with equities, I'm keeping my powder dry on the forex front in case anything out-of-the-ordinary happens. With just one major move down on any of the overbought currency pairs, one can basically recover a lot of one's portfolio during a downturn. So, I'm trying not to be so bigoted here. There could be a lot of potential for some S&R fun again and this time I want to be a winning participant, not a spectator.

+1.21% on the SBA
+0.40% on the Roth IRA

I'm going to use my entry strategy to filter out some stocks that I should perhaps sell. My Sounding Like A Broken iPod Strategy so far has been to look for stocks that are trading with P/S and P/B values of below 1. So once these stocks start trading a lot more above 1, then it could be the time to exit if the overall market is sounding really fraidy. I'm going to practice with CENX, which is my first in a series of 21st century ORTTs.

So far, I'm still waiting for some more alpha with CENX.

Tuesday, August 17, 2010

I Want To Be The Sultan's Favourite...

... but unfortunately, it just didn't happen today - not even with the involvement of the new Love of My Portfolio, CENX, who stood up for our right to rally with a +6.05% secret handshake type move - closing the day nearly at its daily high.

We're inching closer and closer to options expiry on 21 August 2010 and the next few days should get very, very interesting - hopefully upside interesting. Notice that volume on many stocks is much higher than usual as well, so maybe I'm onto something with the options expiry play.

Crown Prince C did not cooperate, which is the main reason my portfolio has been losing steam. I put myself out there and was totally thinking C would get to $5. In fact, many stocks that I'm following in the financial sector seemed to end the day in the red today even in spite of the seemingly rose-coloured outlook occurring with the broader market. S&P closed the day +1.22%... FTSE +1.41%... but some miners (BHP, BP) headed south even as brent crude managed a +1.67% move higher. Perhaps the individual stocks got hit with some negative news.

I was reading some article about the Hindenberg Omen yesterday and I'm not sure what to make of it, actually. If it's so accurate, it should have predicted the global financial crisis, no?

But something seems out of place. The troops won't go on fighting if the general has surrendered. And in this case, the general is... Geithner, Bernanke, and our other FWFOCH. So if they say the stop light's red, the party's over and no one moves... and some people might accidentally shoot themselves in the foot.

+1.00% on the SBA
+0.53% on the Roth IRA

Why am I not happy? Because clearly, the Sultan's visiting the other stocks in the market more and they're getting a bigger share of the skyhigh pie.

Monday, August 16, 2010

Help... ForexDiva's Lost!

Skip my JNSB if you want... I do talk about trading towards the end.

So after throwing my family under the bus (in case anyone was wondering, my sister's 28 and my brother's 22 and in my book, if you're old enough and fiscally irresponsible enough to buy bottles at clubs, you're old enough to stand up financially), I had the decency to run off to the beach on Sunday even though the weather was horrendous and I had to travel more than three hours round-trip. I got up before 8:30 am, which by my standards, is very early. It was a dreary, windy Belgian day, but in the end, I was lucky it didn't rain and catching a glimpse of the beautiful alligator Hermes Kelly Wallet in Bleu Roy was well worth it. My heart stopped and I went into a financial panic at the thought of never being able to possess this extraordinary work of art priced at a shocking 6800 EUR. It was in one word: amazing, but I thank the Lord looking at it is free.

It was my first time at Knokke, a beach town which has been referred to by many as the Monte Carlo of Belgium; but to me, it seemed more like a very snobby, overpriced town resembling a forest with houses nestled in between tiny streets. The weather probably had a lot to do with this perspective, so I'll try to go back on a sunnier day. Apologies to the true Belgians. Here's what I liked about it. First, shops were open on a Sunday. Secondly, as I was walking down Kustlaan, I noticed the Arne Quinze Gallery, which I found very, very interesting. He reminds me a bit of Jackson Pollock in 3D. I visited Marie Siska, which is apparently home to some of Belgium's finest waffles. I had the wafels met aardbei en slagroom (waffles with strawberries and cream). I think they're actually better with just plain butter, but Belgian strawberries are possibly the best in the world. This was the first time I'd ever had a Belgian waffle in Belgium in all my nine years here. Talk about delayed gratification.

At the Sonia Rykiel boutique, all I could think of was how this cute little bag would totally be beloved by my sister. And every time I saw something with the word family, I got all bitter and teary.

Anyway, after walking around the more residential area, I was so afraid I'd get lost in the woods and no one would be able to find me. I swear there were more trees than people in Knokke. I was dying to try out the Michelin-rated Bartholomeus, but I decided to head back early after finally making my way out of the woods. No fun in the sun, unfortunately. At least I've got an excuse to go back since I haven't yet seen it all.

Today, I attended a Brian Dolan webinar and finally understood what's going on with the double standard in the USD. And something big could be headed the JPY's way. Apparently, the USD strength throughout the crisis had to do with strong demand for Treasury's, which are the ultimate safe-haven asset. People also wanted to get out of the EUR so badly that a USD long play is like an easy ride. It got my creativity going. We live in a capitalist, globalised economy and we don't do free rides! So if so many people are long USD, some of them will have to be plucked eventually. It's only a question of when. And isn't China one of the biggest fans of Treasury's?

In the meantime, I spent some time looking for $5 and under targets in the US stock market. And by this, I mean looking for stocks that are trading anywhere from $6 to $10 and then mentally unbuttoning their levels all the way down to about $5. When the WM finally happens, you jump. Is that heartless or what? Yes, but can you imagine the trading fun when they go back up to test previous resistance levels?

I'm still waiting to exhale with CENX and my portfolio was very uneventful indeed:

+0.13% on the SBA
+0.08% on the Roth IRA

I'm working on a potentially rewarding trade in a stock market that could potentially benefit heavily from further growth in China. It seems everyone's in agreement that the RMB only has one way to go and being the Awful, Bigoted Woman that I am, I'm not into directly investing in China or buying RMB. However... an economy that could benefit from further growth in China? I've got no issues with that.

Obviously, I'm not going to give anyone a free ride by letting you know what market in particular I'm looking at. Mentally unravel the mystery yourself!

Friday, August 13, 2010

Off to the Beach...

... on Sunday, weather-permitting. Did anyone manage to find the Elliott Wave thing on gold or was I totally being delusional and schizoprenic? It took over 8 years to form this wave and the next one could be almost as time-consuming, but doesn't the risk:reward look very compelling? I'm looking for at least another two technical indications to confirm the wave since I don't even know if I counted it correctly. I wouldn't mind being the Woman Who Struck Gold, but at the same time, I don't want to have a repeat of the HP Incident either.


-0.25% on the SBA
+0.79% on the Roth IRA

The 21 August 2010 options expiry should be fun for a lot of stocks, including CENX and Crown Prince C...

CENX: So Let's Switch It Over to The Fair Weather Channel...

...and talk about things like my right to be a Fair Weather Sister rather than my family crisis.

I got into a brand new trade today. I was totally going to wait for either BAC or BCS to hit infomercial levels, but then I started looking at some commodities and CENX tempted me to jump into the pool - mainly because I think oil's going to be able to stay above $70. CENX has got a beta of 3.7, so let's see if we've got any trading chemistry together. I got in at $10.25 due to some options analysis I was doing. Options are due to expire on 21 August 2010 and I think with a high beta like 3.7, we could be headed towards some price volatility.

We've got some relatively strong call interest from $10-$12 and there's some call interest at $13 as well. I'm looking to get out before $12, which would put me in line for more than a +10% gain between now and 21 August 2010. I will move my stop right before $12.

This is what the options chains look like on my E*Trade platform:

I'm putting a time limit on this trade - sell before 21 August 2010. Hopefully, I'll be able to be chaste on this trade and not let my profits all go to waste.

My BCS trade was so beautiful and I let the profits retrace by half... not the way to trade!

The Woman Formerly Known As My Sister

I took about two hours looking at charts today because I was just in such a state of shock after receiving some news from my sister that she was officially "disowning" me after our Jerry Springer incident. I suppose I'm more hurt than angry even though technically, I should really be the one doing the disowning. I'll get to the charts later, but you can skip all my JNSB, which is more for me to vent than anything.

My sister technically "borrowed" five figures from me to buy a house back in 2007. I had told my family not to do so back in July 2006. I distinctly remember telling them to wait until housing prices started heading downwards. Instead, I was greeted with a whole slew of name-calling... cruel, heartless, bitch, frog in a well. The typical Chinese guilt trip type of treatment. I gave in with a lot of resentment and I remember begging my Dad not to disown me. I was kneeling down on the floor when he told me he didn't even want to see me at his funeral. So, I had no choice but to give in and I don't even legally own the house.

Every few years, I'd get a request for five figures here and five figures there. Finally, on my recent visit, they requested that I help out with six figures for my brother's college tuition. I suggested scholarships and possibly finding out if it's possible to bypass some classes to get his degree - maybe even doing some stuff in the meantime to boost his income. I admit my delivery was way off. I'd been very defensive and resentful, but the name-calling from them got even uglier. I basically got psycho-analysed for free and I was diagnosed with being schizophrenic and delusional, ignorant, cruel, heartless, selfish, etc. Yes, I'm moodier than Moody's but hearing from your family that they think you're schizophrenic? Now, that's love!

I also was told that it's normal for me to have been belittled by my Dad in the way that I was treated all through my life. No, it's not normal and it was never normal nor will it ever be normal according to me.

According to their view of my life, I’m going to die husbandless, children-less, family-less and friendless. I can’t say that I don’t secretly harbour the same view and I probably wouldn't mind too much about the children-less part either. All my life, I’ve heard what a terrible person I am from my family and everyone else around me seemed to think I was the sweetest girl in the world. I was always Teacher’s Pet. But to my family, I was nothing. I told myself, I’ve got to stand up for my financial future because the economy is uncertain and this might be all I’ll ever get.

So my options were:

A. Pay them six figures so that I can be considered a “good sister” while sacrificing my own financial future and all the while getting the abuse that is customary from them

B. Getting disowned and keeping my six figures

I don't know if I can respect myself either way, really. I definitely can't respect myself by choosing A, but now getting hit with option B seems a bit too out-of-the-blue, although I was adamant about keeping my six figures - just without the disowning part. Have I become like the prisoner who's been set free and yet doesn't know what to do with her freedom?

I was in a family that never thought of me as family. If they thought of me as family, would they have ever called me all those names? To me, a family doesn’t do that. Did they ever think how selfish they are by asking me to give up another six figures for them? Then, they’ll come back to me and ask WTF I haven’t been able to save any money all these years even though according to them, I make a lot of money. Did they ever think they played a part in burning through it? Yes, I was making a lot of money that enabled five people to survive all these years. Did I even get a thank you? At least from Citibank, you get some Thank You points. From your family, you get an eff you. That’s what you get.

Anyway, after some crying, we're onto the effing charts! I've had it with the market too and it seems to be on its way to disowning me.

+1.39% on the SBA
-0.27% on the Roth IRA

I've been looking at all the major markets - S&P, Eurofirst, FTSE, Nikkei, Shanghai... and I was like... OK, I've got to stop and just look at our perennial favourites - gold and oil.

There's a very nice horizontal support line on oil at around the $70 level and on gold? Bwahaha... I'm getting ready for doing the Trade of the Century on gold. Get out your Elliott Wave Flags, people and start waving...

I did my own homework, but a Fellow HSFTs heads up to you... hint: look on the really, really long term charts!

Here's the one-year oil chart from FT.com:

That is pure beauty, isn't it? I'm not sure I have any inkling where oil would go, but I'm just going to keep an eye out for whether oil can hold at $70. And if it does, then we'll see you back on the way up, our dearly beloved Bears...

Wednesday, August 11, 2010

Oh, My Sultan... But You're Too Manly for BandAids, Aren't You?

Why can't Bernanke just keep his lips sealed? I got back from my Holiday and there's unfortunately nothing to celebrate here. Plus, I've got a bit of a sun burn since there were no cute cabana boys anywhere. So I think we got so close to breaking 10,000 on the Nikkei and so close to 10,700 on DJIA as well. FTSE went above 5400 and Shanghai has managed to stay above 2600 for some days. But it seems two critical markets - DJIA and Nikkei - haven't been in any mood to party. So the Real Bwahahas are in fact the Effing Bears and they're like... we're going to see you back on the Waterford Way down!

Sultan BCS got totally battered along with the GOLs and I ended up divorcing some shares of C at about +7% profit today. Honestly, everything looks very bid to me with huge bid sizes, but I thought... if I'm plucking wrong, I would have contained some of the damage here. I got out at $3.90 and now I'm waiting to buy BAC at not $12.99... not even $10.99... at only $9.98. Yes, I am! It's either BAC at $9.98 or BCS at a very top secret TBC price.

I almost broke up with Harry too, but don't forget 26 August is the next HWD earnings announcement. I don't mind waiting for my dearly beloved Harry. We go way back, so this love-hate on-off 21st century open relationship is going on until I find a cuter investment. But who can be more handsome and muscular than our Dr Harry Alpha Winston? And we've had so much toe-curling too.

It's more fun on the way up, but I feel a lot better after filing the papers for an amicable separation with CitiFrog on the grounds of irreconcilable differences.

Speaking of irreconcilable differences... I've had another Oprah / Jerry Springer incident with my quote unquote family. OK... it was more Oprah than JS initially, but now it's getting seriously JS. I won't get into the full details, but I have decided once and for all that my family has got to grow up financially. I got called high and mighty and was accused of being Miss Straight A's not wanting to see a certain family member succeed. I'll admit I was Straight A's all through high school, but certainly not university. And the second part? Even I wouldn't resort to that level of evil. In fact, I do consider myself more the Columbia University Reject / Brown University Wait Listed sort of student. Very embarrassing, actually.

Anyway, the bandaids are not out yet, but very, very close.

-3.27% on the SBA
-4.42% on the Roth IRA

Oh, that's very painful indeed. Dr Harry, I think I may need a straight up capital injection quite soon.

Stay tuned... I've got some new trading ideas courtesy of my first-rate jet lag...

Monday, August 2, 2010

Short & Caught: 1-800 Squeeze A Bear

The bears didn't stand a chance today and the Real Bwahahas are starting to come out on a day where the world's stock markets seemed to conspire to squeeze out each and every short. Brent crude was up +3.53% and the London Alpha Males are back in full force, propping up FTSE and GBP/USD, which had a very strong stop-run up to 1.5880's. I will hate them forever for leaving me out of the ride, but I can't blame them for my BCS profits, which are getting very, very charming. I wouldn't be surprised if we hit the BCS 52WH very soon, but I'm still keeping an eye on BAC as well. If BCS so much as blinks, I'll have to be ready to move, but I think we've got a very strong case here for staying the course.

I'd say this rally was beautifully executed. DJIA closed so very near the quintessential 10,700 level. S&P 500 has managed to close above 1100 on several sessions now. FTSE closed nearly at 5400. If Nikkei manages to conquer Mount 10,000, my heart will be soaring during my Holiday (Celebrate).

I'm flying tomorrow through LHR, my fourth home. You know you'll miss me, but you know I'll miss you too! Yes, I will... Sultan BCS... Prince Harry... and of course, my darlingest London Alpha Males and Spicy Sultry Scintillating Citifrog.

+2.38% on the SBA
+2.57% on the Roth IRA