Friday, January 28, 2011

Boom... Boom... Boom... Even Brighter Than the Moon, Moon, Moon...

... Remember that USD/CAD trade I was in sometime ago where I had the right trading philosophy, but still ended up driving on the wrong side of the trade? I got out of jail free on that one, but that ZZ position I got into yesterday was a quick way to lose -4.3% today. I felt like I dialed 1-800-MATTRESS, but then I didn't leave off the last S for savings. LOL.

I wanted to sell anything and everything today, but then I decided to look ahead to next week's event calendar - just like my BFF forex broker taught me to do.

Chew on this:

ISM Manufacturing... 1 February 2011
Unemployment Claims... 3 February 2011
Non Farm Pay Day... 4 February 2011
Unemployment Claims... 10 February 2011
Core Retail Sales... 15 February 2011

Now that I'm in ZZ, the one I'm most concerned about is Core Retail Sales. If toe-curling profit-taking is possible between now and 15 February 2011, I'm going to trade in my mattress for some fast cash - no Western Union required.

For now, I'll continue believing Sealy's promise: "Whatever you do in bed, Sealy supports it."

I trade, but my portfolio isn't so Sure:

-2.65% on the SBA
-1.79% on the Roth IRA

Happy Weekend, Professors!

Thursday, January 27, 2011

ZZ... That Joke Was So 5 Minutes Ago...

... do I have any new ones?

In fact, I don't. But I just got into a new position that involves many different types of mattresses. LOL. Look into Sealy Corporation (ZZ) and arbitrage me if you'd like. I got in at market, which was $2.79 a few minutes before. I tried to outsmart other people's prices with a buy at $2.33 in an effort to break its 52WL, but when it's this bid, you have to either get in at market or stay out. And I opted to pay up for this trend ticket and got in. This one just hit its 52WL in August and the past few days, it's been very bid with bid sizes greatly outshining ask sizes by a large margin.

I proudly jumped the queue at a cent greater than the most recent bid price, so tomorrow's market action will tell whether I did the right thing or whether I was too optimistic with trying out a new position with so many beds at stake. Sealy's new line: the Stearns & Foster Luxury Latex Line. I wonder what that's all about. Apparently, it's all about unsurpassed comfort. Hmmm...

Why did I choose this balance sheet over the others in the queendom?

1. Trading near its 52WL and its 52WH is at 4.24 - which means I stand to gain almost 52% if we hit the 52WH and my bias is that we'll break above it... perhaps it might even hit $7.50!
2. Placed in a sector that has been greatly overlooked. The mattress is the last thing you think about replacing in a downturn. But now that prospects have gotten a lot better over the past few months, people who haven't been taken out of the job market yet will think about doing something about those sleepless nights.
3. Strong revenues... P/S is only 0.22... number of shares outstanding considered low according to my standards
4. Distribution in the Americas and Europe, which I think will really take off based on my First In First Out economic recovery principle
5. Although in debt with a negative book value, has net income available to common shareholders
6. 50 day SMA is above 200 day SMA, which means it has the potential to trend even higher.
7. Earnings out on 28 March 2011. It may be a little bit of a wait, but this is a high beta stock we're talking about.
8. Daily bid and ask spread is high, which means I can even do some day trading with this stock if I am so inclined.

Other than that, report card for the day:

+0.78% on the SBA
+0.79% on the Roth IRA

Wednesday, January 26, 2011

You Can Still Be A Snob Even Though You Don't Have A Job...

I love FreshDirect - especially their carrot cupcakes, but I'm not really too crazy about the stuff I got at Target, especially this comforter I got. So, since I don't have a mattress topper yet, I'm thinking of using it as one once I get my hands on a better comforter. I would really be careful about all the hype about Target being the next Walmart too. You have to live up to the hype - and whilst this comforter was ok, it wasn't that much better than what you can get at competitors such as Amazon. In fact, I found some 1000+ thread count stuff at Amazon for much less than anywhere else, so once my cash flow scenario gets better, I'll basically jump at that opportunity. Anyone in the market for $100+ stocks should really consider Amazon. I subscribed and saved and will be stimulating their economy for some time to come. In all my years shopping at Amazon, I've only had two orders where I've had to complain - and this is good considering I'm so difficult to please. I'm going to look for buying opportunities if it falls into double digit pricing territory again for whatever reason.

By being too legit to quit, I've effectively stopped my cash flow voluntarily over the short term, but I am not going to lower my standards! Over the past few days, I've been focused on other sources to generate some income stream over the next quarter. By being employed, you basically hand over your cash flow management to your employer. By now being jobless, I've got to take over my own cash flow management. So I now have to look at my trading and ask: how am I going to be a cash flow control freak here and generate income over the next quarter?

My new cash flow strategy is three-tiered:

1. researching stocks and other investments (stop smirking!)
2. starting a new consulting business
3. lining up some higher quality job interviews in my industry

I don't know what my next step will really be, but if you have to try too hard with anything like I did with my previous job, it was never meant to be even though it lasted over nine years. I want to take it easy until Chinese New Year to give myself some rest since I basically haven't stopped working since age 17.

As far as investing goes, I want to be Lady Blah Blah with a stock I found whilst I was doing my own homework, which I really like to do.

The balance sheet is VLOV, Inc. (VLOV.OB) and it is not, I repeat, not one I'm going to buy, but by looking at it, a few thoughts occurred to me:

First, a balance sheet needs to be alive - meaning, a company has to be transparent enough to be filing SEC reports. This balance sheet really struck me and it's possible it's because it's being traded OTC, but it could really happen anywhere. There's a risk with companies that are late or do not file SEC reports - especially in penny stocks (like my recent EATR buy, but I have a goal with that play and that is to trade a news announcement with it, so I'm going to stick with that plan). Even though VLOV looks like it's got a fantastic balance sheet, this could potentially be a red flag if you don't look at the date that the company last filed a financial report.

Secondly, you've got to have net income available to common shareholders in order for a stock to be worth a buy - so why not look at Net Income Available to Common Shareholders as a % of revenue whilst I'm doing my analysis?

Finally, if a company is cooking their books, what would their balance sheet look like? I guess I have more questions than answers there, but if you put that question out there, you'll start finding the answers very soon. All things have to line up, but if it's too perfect, does it mean something? For instance, why is this stock being traded so thinly if it's such a good buy? Volume divided by shares outstanding is pretty low there, isn't it, Professor?

Anyway, my report card today:

+0.48% on the SBA
-0.31% on the Roth IRA

I'm ignoring what Bernanke said. I put in a top secret buy on a top secret consumer cyclical stock that is trading near its 52WL. I've got that 1 million NFP job creation number to look forward to. By addressing job creation head on in his speech, President Obama must have his ducks all lined up already. Even though I'm semi-Republican, you can tell that he has that type of personality that's sort of like he won't reveal anything until it's a done deal. I think job creation is going to pick up more quickly than expected, so let's see if we'll get some Pop Secret there. I'll make the announcement shortly so you can try to arbitrage me and give me some trading plaisir as well as help me with some liquidity...

State of the Diva: Karma Sutures

Harry has got "this boy is not a toy" written all over him, but I'm really not liking Harry's latest move and based on my recent theory/conjecture about high beta stocks being a potential leading indicator to overall market direction, I'm planning to call it a play with HWD by selling a partial lot at a test of the $12 resistance level and re-buying at the $9.99 level. If it now goes straight to $9.99 and holds, it is a pretty good sign that the Andrews Pitchfork 3-year uptrend is still in effect - and if so, I believe with all my chart that we're going to be headed towards $20 this year. These are super sensitive areas because, roughly speaking, $9.99 is the 38.6% fib level on HWD's 3-year chart and $20 is the 61.8% level. Plus, they are obvious psychological levels.

I've also been noticing that there has been a tendency for stocks to reject the 3-year median price level on a broader basis. This has been the case with many stocks (BCS, MS, HWD - to name a few) that would be considered higher risk. Essentially, stocks are failing the 50% fib level on the 3-year timeframe. The funny thing is that Nasdaq has just started broaching its December 2007 level. I hate the bears more than anyone else in the world, but this sends shivers up my spine just a tiny bit here. Is it now time for me to be a Short Term Cycle Bitch and start selling some stuff to buy back on a retrace?

Some lower risk stuff I want to get into:

Retailers trading at or near their 52WLs
Any banks that are below their 23.6% fib levels on a 3-year timeframe

The economic landscape will continue to improve. Whatever the pace of the recovery may be, if you can get a retailer near their 52WL and a bank near its 23.6% fib level, it's still a good buy.

I can't wait for the next Non Farm PayDay on 4 February 2011. We'll find out then whether I am on the right or wrong track about the 1 million NFP job creation mark. My feeling is that April will be a really big month as far as the job market is concerned.

For now, though, I'm not getting paid and that dynamic has to change:

-1.38% on the SBA
-1.24% on the Roth IRA

Though the beautiful world of ForexDiva seems to be on the decline, even if the whole world is down on you, you can't be down on yourself - even if the retracement hits you on your way out in a very major WTF sort of way.

Friday, January 21, 2011

O'er the Ramparts We Watched...

Harry, my dear, are you trying to be unpatriotic with me? That -5.00% move today makes me wonder if my paramour HWD is headed for a downtrend? On a 3-year chart, the bull flag that could have been looks more than a tiny bit wobbly now, but it could just as well become an Andrews Pitchfork uptrend. I also have a feeling that high beta stocks are more prone to doing triple tops than double tops - something I'm going to do some more research on. Right now, I'm going to pay attention to see if HWD hits $15 once again, observe what happens at that erogenous zone, and then if necessary, do some partial profit-taking. Obviously, I'm also watching the critical $9.99 infomercial level, which I've been eyeing for some time.

EATR held that $0.0002 level and IDGG, my other penny stock (besides LEHMQ), has been stuck in a range as well.

Last night, whilst I was lying in bed, I had an insomnious (I had to look that one up) trading insight. A trading month comprises about 20 trading days. So in order to give myself a winning chance, I'd have to be in about 20 stocks so I don't have to feel so bad about profit-taking. I'm only in about 10 and most are fair weather territory type plays. This weekend, I'm giving myself a second goal since I failed my first goal of taking profit this week and that is to research stocks that have a high negative beta to balance my high beta ones. These are really hard to find because after looking through hundreds of balance sheets, I've only really seen one or two negative beta stocks. So to find one that's a high negative beta one could be really challenging. But I realise they are necessary to my long term trading success and I'm going to put my moola where my mouth is and test out this theory in reality trading.

Where does my portfolio stand today?

-1.79% on the SBA
+0.92% on the Roth IRA

Happy Weekend, HSFTs! Don't you love it that I'm back to my textual harassment type blogging ways and better than ever before, my darling honey bees?

Thursday, January 20, 2011

ForexDiva In the Library...

So what's up with my portfolio, Professors?

Here's a sexy library update on what's been going on with my trading:

EATR maintained the $0.0002 level on volume of 125,000. Will we see an increase in volume or was that my last chance to sell? Based on technical analysis alone, it looks like it's doing a dub-dub-dubbaya double bottom on the one year chart. I'm thinking based on this chart alone, and based on the Andrews Pitchfork effect, it could potentially hit the $0.0004 level very soon and if it breaks it, $0.0006 is a distinct possibility even though the price action could be due to the pump and dump effect. Check it out, but be smart with your darts! Volume has been tapering off and this is potentially perilous.

As far as the rest of my portfolio is concerned, I got out of that partial position of BAC a few weeks ago and admit it was a big mistake since I missed the earnings announcement play trying to outsmart the market by re-entering at my original entry of $11.18. I missed out on a +30% move and took a little more than 3% and I admit... I have trading-sinned and I belong in the Confessional Booth for that!

I got into HERO, banking about +14% in 9 days. I then got into GEN, which has been roughly +7% since I entered the position at $3.8598. GEN has earnings announcement out 25 February 2011 and I might stay the course with GEN just to see whether the cold winter will boost GEN profits or not.

I have a party to head to and hopefully I won't be the ugliest girl at the party! Apparently, not only is there a fantastic library here in the building, but a monthly party as well. Not to mention a sky deck, business centre, valet service, and the cutest 24/7 security guards / doormen in NY. Whether I get to continue to stay in such a fantabulous place depends on whether there's any demand for ForexDiva's strategic marketing competencies.

Professor, will you hire me? Or at least brush my pips?

+1.62% on the SBA
+0.88% on the Roth IRA

Wednesday, January 19, 2011

Chunk of Junk or Treasure Hunk?

The biggest news out of my portfolio today (aside from the Sultan and C both retracing) was surprisingly... EATR! So is it going to be a chunk of junk or treasure hunk? It remains to be seen. The so-called upwards price action of +100% on the day was based on volume of only 500,000. On penny stocks with outstanding shares of over 2 billion, that's very negligible. It's all relative, isn't it? Just because there's 2 million volume on a penny stock that's worth $0.0001 per share, doesn't mean there's a lot of moola behind the move.

A good site I found on penny stocks is, which I combine with market research from my BFF equities broker, E*Trade with stuff I find through my BFF perennial favourite research resource, Yahoo Finance, to make my bimbo trading decisions.

This week, I've got one goal: to take profit on one or two positions. I am going to force myself to do so, otherwise I'm no better than a market spectator, which I have really admittedly been throughout 2010. In 2011, I'm reinventing myself and I'm going to be a quote unquote successful momentum player!

I missed out on that nice move with BAC since I was trying to outsmart the market, but I'm not going to pay a lot for any mufflers anymore.

What I learned about momentum today is something elementary once again. The high beta stocks that I trade move faster than the market. So any time there are signs of stagnation going on, it's time to take profit. And when they start moving faster than the market, it could be time to start getting into lower beta stocks or even more of the high beta ones for some extra credit since the movement of the high beta stocks could then be considered a leading indicator of sorts. I'm testing out this new theory of trading relativity!

Relatively speaking, my portfolio was an underperformer:

+1.47% on the SBA
-1.47% on the Roth IRA

C you at $5 again soon? LOL.

Tuesday, January 18, 2011

I Slept On It Too Long...

OMG... did anyone else see that Red Bull confessional commercial? LOL.

Anyway, I've been spending way too much time at the library in my new apartment building since there's free wifi here, not to mention a very comfortable chaise as well as a beautiful, warm, and cosy fireplace. My studio is nice, but I have literally no furniture yet and I'm pondering actually leaving it so. I admit I not only shopped at Crate & Barrel, but also Target - online and on sale of course! I know... but they have 700 thread count stuff. I have yet to see if I need to reject any of their stuff, but so far, the library is a very seductive alternative to my bare apartment!

The other day, I must have walked in at an inopportune time as there was a couple here, obviously looking forward to some alone time. They weren't about to get any. The woman was literally sprawled on the couch and the guy looked like he was about to read her a story. LOL. Then, I walked in. Ooops...

What was I supposed to do? All I wanted to do was research stocks and I needed Internet access, so I stayed - and they left. I looked through tonnes of balance sheets and the high that I got from researching balance sheets was exhilarating. Something even more exciting occurred to me! There are actually negative beta stocks. And I might have to get into some.
I've been really into high beta throughout the crisis, but beta also changes. Even Harry has been stuck in a price rut lately and today, just when I thought I could finally be C's Sultana this year, C came out with earnings that missed analyst estimates by $0.04 and there was a broad-based sell-off of -6.43% that had me floored. I definitely slept on that a bit too long, but noticed that there's still some buying on C, so C can still count me in. We're in it to win it! Plus, the latest news is that C's $247 billion cash treasure trunk even trumps JPM's $90 billion in cash...

So, essentially, negative beta stocks move in inverse correlation with the market and I think I might need some suitable ones to temper my spicy portfolio. I'd then have the best of both worlds. When the market's up, my high beta stocks will break new highs. When the market's down, my negative beta stocks will be my sunrise. Or that's the plan at least! I might throw in some low beta ones for good measure.

Don't follow me into the precarious / perilous / petty EATR though. I might have inadvertently gotten entangled in a pump and dump type deal there. Volume seems to be tapering off and if volume freezes, that might be the end of my 1 million shares. LOL.

Something I can't laugh about:

+0.22% on the SBA
-3.42% on the Roth IRA

C is just very, very, very naughty! Belongs in the confessional booth, I might add...

Thursday, January 13, 2011

Diva... Wouldn't Want To Be Ya...

Moola to ya, Professors - and Happy New Year!

I'm blogging from my new apartment, and as usual, there's only one thing on my mind... forex.
Just in case anyone was wondering, over the past few weeks, I showed myself that principle is much bigger than moola and I earned myself some self-respect. To anyone else, quitting my job and moving back to my country (yes, the one that started the global economic fire) might be the worst move for anyone to make. To myself, it was a move I had to make regardless of cost. Now that I can respect myself, I have a feeling things can only get better from here and people won't have to secretly think: Diva, wouldn't want to be ya...

But who would have thought that C would end up being my destiny? C deserves a special mention today. C broke above $5 yesterday and managed to close above $5 for a second day, which is great news. I am starting to ask myself, does this position still make sense? This is one of my biggest (and best) positions. Whilst I didn't catch C at the ultimate all-time low, I did get in at a good enough level. I stocked up at around the $3 to $4 range throughout the crisis and now have a sizable position in C. C is the only major US bank that hasn't broken above double digit pricing yet, so psychologically speaking, it has some more upside. But, it makes up almost half my Roth IRA in value and I'm starting to contemplate selling part of the position - and not to get into penny stocks! I'm going to sleep on it... should I keep riding this?
One thing's for sure... I'm officially putting my penny stock strategy on hold - as in I'm not buying any more until I can prove that it works. I got into another penny stock several days ago and I'm not sure that was my best idea, but let's not be too judgmental, Professors. Even if this one doesn't work out, it taught me an important money management / positioning principle that may be applicable to other markets in which I trade. It may be a bit elementary to the Professors out there, but eureka for this little diva. Anyway, I got into Eastern Asteria (EATR) for $0.0001 per share. And I got into a full 1 million shares. Do the math on my risk. Hahaha... but in my diva opinion, if I end up selling it for a nickel, that's like a 5% profit on a $1 million trade.

Is it likely to happen? No, but could it happen? Anything can happen and the possibility of it going any lower (i.e. going to zero due to ceasing operations, filing bankruptcy, or whatever) is just as likely as it going higher. Here's why:

Based on my understanding, $0.0001 is the lowest possible price for any stock. After a conference call that happened in July 2010, Eastern Asteria stock has been on a steady downtrend. Basically, any possible news announcement from the company at this point would be considered good news - even if it's bad news. It had been selling off due to a lack of transparency and a news announcement is what I'm looking to trade with this stock!

1 Year High = 0.0015
3 Year High = 0.15

Possible price points to watch: 1 year high, breaking above its 1 year high and trying for 50% retracement of its 3 year high. Isn't that compelling?
After a beautiful rally that brought my Roth IRA back in the green, I ended the day:

-2.11% on the SBA
+0.11% on the Roth IRA

The Sultan, BCS, is starting to get alpha again and I'm going to view any pullback as a potential buying opportunity because I have a personal bias for the European banking sector to rebound in 2011. I think what's secretly happening is that money from emerging markets such as China and India will now move back into the US and Europe, but that's just my conjecture and who listens to ForexDiva? LOL.