Tuesday, November 30, 2010

BAC 10.99'ed Us!

How could you, BAC?

-0.93% on the SBA
-0.07% on the Roth IRA

In percentage terms, it looks painful. In dollar terms, it's still bearable. Get it, bear-able? LOL. Yeah, that was so bad.

Anyway, I'm getting ready for another evil plot... I'm getting ready to plan for Lehman exiting from bankruptcy. I know I may be a few years too early, but that's going to be the next big thing in two years. So to be able to do it right, I've got to plot.

I'm already in Lehman bonds and Lehman shares, but given previous experience, these are not guaranteed winners. I'm therefore going to use my recent 'sell the shovels, not the gold' insight and look for Lehman counter-parties or business partners that may or may not benefit from the Lehman bankruptcy exit. I'd then keep a close eye on these shovel suppliers for some gold-diggin' fun...

Monday, November 29, 2010

Wow, I Didn't Realise How Much I Missed NY...

... until I spoke to the leasing office at an apartment I'm looking to get into. This lady was telling me how people post fake real estate ads all the time and I (admittedly, naively) asked: why? I suppose I sounded like a spoiled princess too, because she answered: "I can’t explain to you all that’s wrong with the world." I kind of can't wait to get back, yet I'm still in the midst of arranging my relocation, which is a tiny bit stressful. I shall have to work on my retorts though. I'm nine years out of practice now!

I apparently answered to two potential fake ads so far. All I can say is if it looks too good to be true, then it probably is. If all the other apartments in new buildings are above a certain price and there's just one or two that happen to be slightly discounted, get ready to say no to the bait and switch. Now, I think my best course of action is to deal directly with the leasing offices situated in the apartments rather than going through an agent. I am happy to report that due to my own due diligence, I averted staying in The Octagon on Roosevelt Island, which used to be a hospital - or something. That's a little more Bwahaha than I can handle.

My three honey bees (BAC, C, HWD) lifted my portfolio today.

+0.88% on the SBA
+0.69% on the Roth IRA

Some really weird moves:

PHHM with +86.34% (even though it filed for Chapter 11)
FNVRF with +33.68%

Friday, November 26, 2010

Harry Just Might Have More Under His Belt...

I, for one, reckon he's got a lot more that we haven't yet seen. He got upgraded once again and most retailers have led the market the past week or so. TIF even broke above $60 a few days ago. I lament the fact that I chose NYX over TIF that summer of '09 when I had a choice between buying NYX or TIF. And I went with my head rather than my heart - and consequently missed out on an opportunity to basically double my money.

Although I saw a lot of upside with Harry too, I know it'll be some time before TIF gets back to the $30s again - if at all. This leads me to contemplate getting into more HWD in hopes that Harry will chase after Tiffany and we'll still get a happily ever after. So where should I touch Harry's prices?

The Sultan seems to have left the room too and now I'm left with a cold -6.96% on this BCS position. I know it was wrong! I should have taken profit ages ago when I had that run of QU luck, but I was stubborn and now, I've got to strategise on my next course of price action with BCS.

And now, the part you know you like best... I'm going into the Confessional Booth again and this time I'm reviewing my economic performance for the month of November so far. I'd love to chart my daily performance, but doing so manually may get very tedious. Still, I think it'll give me an unobstructed view of my actual trading performance and indicate to me areas I can improve on.

Anyway, this month... not only did I have 10.5 bad days and 7.5 good days, but my bad days are still worse than my good days. So, my target now is to try to get my good days to be at least twice as good as they are now because I know one's sunny days are limited according to the month's trading calendar.

The problem with portfolio rebalancing is that when I need to sell something at a loss, I often don't want to do it. However, I learned from selling my ABK bonds early in the year even though I didn't like doing it. Often times, you need to give up whatever is not working in order to gain something much more valuable back. And I did that with ABK and didn't get left holding the proverbial half-torn bag when ABK ripped off the bandaid and filed for Chapter 11 only after dragging investors through the mud for over two years. Recall that ABK was so close to $95 back in the day and is now only worth $0.143.

I set that money free just in time and even used it to do some quick plays with BAC and MS if I remember well. Those were the days! LOL.

Now, my trading has gone haywire once again and I'm looking to next week to redeem myself!

+0.05% on the SBA
-1.80% on the Roth IRA due to the Sultan's cruel and heartless retracement

Happy Weekend, Professors of Finance!

Wednesday, November 24, 2010

I Missed the Mark...

... by a very small margin. NASDAQ put in the best performance today with a +1.95% increase and my better portfolio only did a +1.91%. Yes, that little bit does matter to me - especially when you set up a certain expectation for the performance of your portfolio and then just fall short of it. Not that it's bothering me that much, but still, 0.04% is 0.04%. It's the difference between being below average and being on par with the market. And to a person who was Swiss in a previous lifetime, it matters. Harry pleased me most with a +2.11% advance. Soon, we'll be getting Harry's earnings announcement - something I'm very much looking forward to. Oh, Harry, will you please touch my prices at $14.57 once again and take that top out for me?

BAC bounced back slightly, but nothing too dramatic.


+1.91% on the SBA
+1.37% on the Roth IRA

Other than the financial sector, I'm into the retail sector as well with HWD and BULIF, but only one is a mover. If BULIF doesn't start doing something soon, it's going out the window with my next portfolio rebalancing!

Now I'm going to research some more stocks so I can decide how I'll invest that beautiful, magnificent moola.

Tuesday, November 23, 2010

The Market's Pace Put Me Back In Place...

Plus, I set it and forgot it and now I'm in it to win it with BAC. I entered at $11.18 automatically, cinematically. The 6 million bid sizes are back on C as well, though the bears left most of us in tears. We had two important announcements today - the Fed Minutes and US GDP. US GDP pointed to modest growth and other than existing home sales data being slightly off today, all the other news announcements globally were better than expected as well. The market obviously didn't think so and decided to focus on the indecision shown by the Fed Minutes as well as ongoing Eurozone woes.

Fed Minutes? Isn't that a bit of a lagging indicator to sound like a broken record? How can the market sell off like this when German and French PMI simultaneously painted a rose-coloured picture? And how did our Yen Friends manage a rally like that today? I wouldn't know about this stuff, but my price levels have still been in play and that's all that really matters. CENX turned out to be the one that got away when it tried for $15 and failed recently after I abruptly ended our affair involving the chart. Now I've gotten back together with another ex-investment, BAC to see if we've still got some trading synergy going on.

What else matters?

Headlines like these contradicting the ongoing fears:

Total Loan Loss Reserves Drop To Lowest Levels Since 4Q 2007
Share Of Unprofitable Banks Drops To Lowest Levels Since 2Q 2008
Total Banking Industry Net Income Totals $14.5B In 3Q 2010
US Banking Industry Profits Jumped Again In 3Q 2010

A report card like this:

-2.03% on the SBA
-1.81% on the Roth IRA

...doesn't mean that my trading ego is too big to fail... especially when BAC seems to be forming an Andrews Pitchfork one-year downtrend that's ripe for a reversal. Could this be the double bottom I've been waiting for? This time, I'm setting my initial target at $15 and my secondary target at a break above the 52WH of $19.86 on BAC even if the timing seems to be a little off. But I've got two main price drivers in my favour: Santa and the BAC earnings announcement on 21 January 2011.

Head high, HSFTs!

Monday, November 22, 2010

Your Pace Or Mine?

Over the weekend, I was researching some more high beta stocks and discovered that it's actually possible to have a beta that's slightly higher than 5. This specific stock, I'll keep to myself for the time being, but I'll share with you another insight that I had. There are only so many sunny days in a week, so when the market's hot, you have to get into the farm, work the fields, and get your subsistence harvest going.

I'm going to now take a small four figures and see how many times I can turn it into an 8% profit in a month. Is it actually possible to get at least a few percentage gain in one day? Is it possible to actually get a few different trades to profit a few percentage in a day? Is it actually possible that I'm actually mad?

I don't know how many times I've been told that it's already so remarkable if you're able to make a double digit gain consistently in the stock market on an annual basis. But if it were up to those people, you'd need millions sitting in the bank in order to get any decent ROI.

Now I'm going to aim higher... so, your pace or mine?

Whatever your pace, don't go by my portfolio's pace:

-0.74% on the SBA
-1.40% on the Roth IRA

I'm going to rebalance my portfolio with some high pace high beta stocks. Will I do a 5+ beta stock? It depends, but I'm dying to do something...

Friday, November 19, 2010

Protect Your Assets...

Today's market action didn't put me back in a trade with either BAC or C and I'm wondering if I'll be able to get back in before the trend takes off. There has been a two week sell-off so far and now that the holiday cheer is here, we may be gearing up for a beautiful rally. The moment I've been waiting for has occurred. Nikkei finally broke above 10,000 this week and I forgot to blah about it. I'm not sure how convincing the move is and whether it'll be sustained. But I'm starting to realise that when a rare move like this occurs, it must be a real move. Nikkei doesn't seem to move very quickly, which means that if it's able to hold the 10,000 level, this would bode well for overall market confidence. This would be about the fifth test of 10,000 on Nikkei since Lehman.

If we see Nikkei at 10,000 and Shanghai above 3,000 again, that'll really be something, wouldn't it?

Did Bernanke actually talk because it doesn't seem the market reacted very strongly to his commentary? I checked Extended Hours price action for a few financial sector stocks and notice that most of them are up at least slightly.

I'm going to wait a few more days to see if I can buy either BAC or C at my target levels. If there's no major move, I plan on doing a quick That Time of The Month Options-Based Play. Yes! It's near the end of the month and you all know what that means - market volatility...

Nothing major on the report card...

+0.12% on the SBA
-0.52% on the Roth IRA

Thursday, November 18, 2010

Volatility's Back...

Finally! But it was totally unexpected. I was thinking I'd be able to buy BAC back at my original entry of $11.18, but got left out of a minor move back up instead.

Still, my portfolio benefitted and I was able to beat the US market indices with what is my smaller account. If only it had been the bigger one, but I'm not complaining (or am I?).

I'm practically boiling over in anger still. I've got about one more month to go before I leave Belgium. I'm still at my job until then in order to complete three - turned into five- projects I'm working on. All of a sudden I got a last minute presentation and then I discovered if I'm going to remain professional, I've got one more thing to take care of before I leave other than the agreed upon three and then one thing led to another and now I've got a pile of work, which gets me just a little bit stressed out. When I do something, I want to do it right.

So today, some guy started criticising me on a very minor part of my work and calling it [a Bachelor's of Science degree - you're smart enough to know what it means]. And I was totally thinking... you know, this is why I'm leaving! Not only did I get underpaid, I have to put up with this disrespect all the time. I get the feeling my whole industry is like this, so I'm going to go to some place where I know people probably aren't going to be very nice. If you're going to get mistreated, you have to at least get paid for it.

Are there any good companies to work for?

+1.84% on the SBA
+1.26% on the Roth IRA

On another note... I found a job that seemed interesting enough and when I looked at the industry I would be working for, it was for "protective" products - their exact words. What's that supposed to mean? What I think it is?

Wednesday, November 17, 2010

I Found At Least Three...

...undervalued and overlooked stocks that are trading near their misunderestimated June 2009 lows. One of them is a bit of a stretch, but perhaps a few more days in the red will bring it closer to my liking in terms of pricing. BAC is already quite close to my original entry, so my buy order might get hit if my C buy order doesn't get touched first. So, I'm wondering out loud... should I set my buy orders even lower since we're at key psychological levels again with the major US stock indices? DJIA is near 11,000. NASDAQ is right below 2500. S&P 500 fell below the critical 1200 level again. Maybe it's better to duck just a little lower? That would be a bit too evil, wouldn't it? Bwahaha... take the 52WL and then do a further discount buy. LOL all the way to the bank even if it only tests previous resistance!

Another fun play? Check out currency pairs and see if any of them are trading near their June 2009 lows! I don't know if there are actually any, but if there are, then that could get exciting, right?

Nothing too exciting with my portfolio, but I reckon you guessed it:

-0.28% on the SBA
-0.38% on the Roth IRA

Earnings announcement alert: Harry's up next - well, at least very soon! My E*Trade trading platform says it's on 6 December 2010. However, I've never gotten the date right for some reason with my dearly beloved Harry.

Tuesday, November 16, 2010


I'm OK... today's sell-off didn't kill me, but are we going up or are we going down? From today's action, it seems my recent BAC sell wasn't such a bad move after all. However, the rest of my portfolio set me back and left me wondering if I should remain so optimistic even in the face of tremendous opposition. I suppose Thursday's unemployment numbers and Bernanke's Friday Commentary will give us definitive confirmation - at least until the next big news events roll around to save or deter my portfolio:

-2.59% on the SBA
-2.24% on the Roth IRA

Interestingly, I woke up this morning and I was totally thinking... you know, I have been making millions (OK, maybe million with no s) - just not for myself! So, I'm feeling like the next phase in my life journey should definitely include a lot more financial accountability for my wallet.

Even more interestingly, the net NFP figures I was referring to in yesterday's post are actually at a critical level! We've now created 10% of the total NFP jobs lost since Bear Stearns/Lehman. Therefore, being ever rose-coloured, I'm going to start looking for some undervalued and overlooked stocks that are still priced near their June 2009 lows. Why June 2009? It's not as arbitrary as it seems, but recall a few months back, we had that ridiculous report that said that the recession officially ended in June 2009. Is it a stretch to find a stock priced at that level? It might be, but if I happen to be buying another top, at least it won't hurt as much.

Monday, November 15, 2010

Shop Around...

Shop, shop, shop, shop with that pound. I mean, dollar... I've got a new perspective, so scroll down...

Today, retail sales were better than expected, but the rally I was hoping for did not materialise, although there are at least three noticeable W double bottom formations on major market indices around the world - namely the 5-day FTSE, Eurofirst, and Shanghai. S&P 500 looks like it's about to dubbaya as well.

Does it mean anything? Or am I jumping to conclusions here?

Nikkei also looks like it might try for 10,000 again and Shanghai faked everyone out and bounced back above 3,000. Treasury yields also apparently jumped - sharply.

This week's big event seems to be Bernanke's Friday Commentary, so I'm going to use the time between now and then to try to buy on a dip. I'm quite sure I got played with BAC, though I'm of the opinion that if I can get into another lot with C or a comparably priced stock, I'll be doing just fine this holiday season.

Sometimes, I don't get why Bernanke always has to blah, but I guess you won't get why I always have to blah either. My report card was definitely blah:

+0.19% on the SBA
+0.14% on the Roth IRA

I was doing my own homework this weekend and noticed that NFPs had a major pivot point back in April 2010 by breaking the downtrend with a major hiring spree. I'm going to watch out for psychological levels or when we get to a Fib level on the total number of jobs lost during the downturn. According to my calculations, we had a decline of about 6.2 million NFP jobs since Bear Stearns. Net NFP job creation since April 2010 stands at 629,000. When it gets to a psychological level such as 1 million, the momentum will most likely really get going. So, now I'm going to start my own market accumulation strategy and do the whole mini-monopoly thing even though short term, it might get scary.

I also found this article about Zoe Cruz, who was previously with Morgan Stanley. It was such a dated article, but it got me so inspired because she's got a fascinating story - especially the part about the trader who reported to her who ended up making more than she did - and I started wondering... can I do it too? Make millions... just like that?

I think I've already got the Czarina part down pat...

But the article definitely inspired me to think that if you've got talent, you need to stand up and defend that talent. And you definitely need to get paid for it! So what I'm doing by quitting my job even though I only have a small bike-sized account... it might seem crazy (and what about me isn't). But I know what I'm doing! (Darn it!) LOL.

Friday, November 12, 2010

Be All That You Can Be...

Maybe I should join the army? The army of the bears - that is. I took one step towards the initiation process by selling BAC almost on the day's low at $12.05. It was a moment of panic that I'm not proud of, although it did yield me +7% in three weeks. There's no logic to my selling though. Recall last week, I was at +12% in two weeks. In other words, I got played.

My plan is to either buy BAC back at my original entry of $11.18 or to buy C at a discount from its most recent resistance level of $4.50. Either way, a test of recent resistance will yield me another profitable run up - if we're not due for another few week sell-off, which as I've mentioned before, is totally something that Wall Street is definitely capable of orchestrating. Obviously, the main question is how low can we go this time? Shanghai fell -5.16% today. That's certainly enough to scare a fraidy cat!

Looking forward to next week's data, though, we have US Retail Sales due out on Monday, which means that if I got played, then the bulls will be in control if we get positive data.

My latest bright idea is to look for two penny stocks - one for the bulls and one for the bears. I'd then take a four figure position in each stock when the price is right and then sell on just a few cent move up. A few cent move up in penny stocks, remember, could be just as thrilling as a few hundred pip move up in the forex. I would focus on the goal of daily profit taking - no matter how small the amount is. I would trade the rest of my portfolio the traditional ForexDiva way.

The good news is that it seems much easier to find a good apartment in NYC than it is to find a good job. At least I won't have to be homeless! I don't know if the door to London is open to me at the moment, although I got the impression that there were at least three open doors within my industry. But I think switching industries at this juncture, whilst I'm still relatively young, wouldn't necessarily be a misstep. In fact, it could open up many opportunities to me, especially if I go into a field where the male:female ratio is much more favourable, if you know what I mean. My first priority is work though!

My report card today:

-2.71% on the SBA
-1.47% on the Roth IRA

Oh, will you be my Medicine Man? Because I think I need a band-aid on my broken ankle... LOL.

Have a good weekend, HSFTs!

Thursday, November 11, 2010

'Cause I'm Country Strong...

... but I won't stay down long...

And I am ticked off that the market sold off today only because Cisco was downbeat.
That must be a joke! Cisco has revenues of $40 billion and the whole market falls because a company with $40 billion revenues that has an overvalued market cap of $116 billion gave a subdued forecast. And the market thinks it’s worth $116 billion… What about companies that have $279 billion in net cash? They’re currently only worth a double digit billion market cap. I won't tell you which stock that is, but I'm thinking of buying it - and possibly a lot of it, or as much as I am technically capable of doing anyway.

Another thing that gets me ticked off? My portfolio:

+0.14% on the SBA
-1.39% on the Roth IRA

I need to blow off some steam and I think I can only do that by plotting up some way to run other people's stops in the forex market!

Wednesday, November 10, 2010

Yes, Please...

It was a lovely day for my portfolio as unemployment claims declined and the trade deficit narrowed. Not much seemed to happen with the broader market, but my portfolio sizzled - which is just the way I like it.

Still, I know that in order to be a successful trader, I need to push myself to systematically take profit. Here are my bimbo thoughts...

This year, I noticed a few different scenarios when profit taking is suitable for all investors (LOL):

1.When the broader market has reached a critical resistance level… like this recent touch of 1200 on the S&P.
2.When earnings season is about to end. Wow, that lull could be very painful. After BCS earnings season earlier in the year, I was holding onto a downtrend for the longest time.
3.When no other news is due out for a while – no economic data, etc. Data drives volatility. In the absence of data, other market forces take over price action and it’s usually not pretty.

4.When I’m feeling really smug… or when I feel like, yeah I could definitely day trade... that’s usually the time to take profit. LOL.
5.When a profit objective has been met… CENX was one good example. I kept watching the $14 to $16 level and when it hit $14, tried for $15, but failed, I should have taken profit. Failure of key psychological levels is a big sign to take profit.

These are just some of my ideas. I'm deliberately withholding some of my bimbo trading insight since I think this could give me a strategic competitive advantage and allow me to leverage my core competencies to drive my long term profitability. LOL.

+0.65% on the SBA
+1.55% on the Roth IRA


Tuesday, November 9, 2010

Did the Nikkei Really Move 500 Points In A Week?

I wasn't even really paying attention... and I'm wondering if it'll ever move back up above 10,000, which would be the strongest indicator that the recovery is really here to stay. It keeps testing just above 10,000, which has proven to be very strong resistance so far. I'm looking for this level slightly above 9200 on the one-year Nikkei to hold as horizontal support coinciding with the previous W bottom formation as the ultimate buy signal.

I think tomorrow's unemployment numbers will either propel us forward or push us back (duh!). If we've got NFP job creation going on and also receive an indication that unemployment claims are decreasing, that will be the final straw to break the bears' paws. So far this week, most numbers are failing to live up to expectations, so will unemployment be any different? I hope so! For the sake of my sanity... and my portfolio... and yes, here I go again, my future financial well-being.

Today was one painful day for my portfolio and the bears definitely got the last Bwahaha. I'm trying not to take it too personally. If I didn't study this week's data announcement lineup carefully yesterday, I'd be wondering if I should be selling along with the crowd. Now I'll take the wait and see approach and hope that we'll end up with some trend on trend tomorrow. If I step on the brakes now, I could be killing a trend.

-1.90% on the SBA
-1.32% on the Roth IRA

This, together with my recollection of a time when I thought gold could be a good sell as well as the Sultan's lacklustre economic performance, makes me feel slightly more bimbo than usual.

Interestingly, in a recent marketing webinar that I was watching, some guy was mentioning that during the gold rush, one of the richest men during the era was not someone who was digging for gold, but one who was selling the shovels.

That gave me a new investing idea to research companies that are based in sectors that service the sectors that are in play. I may still be able to buy them very close to their 52WLs, which makes the risk:reward very tempting. Don't go buying any tops! If you're going to buy, at least buy in undervalued sectors...

Monday, November 8, 2010

This Little Light of Mine...

... I'm gonna let it shine...

My Roth IRA started retracing today with the broader market, but S&P 500 still held onto the critical 1200 level. But for how long? For the trend on trend to continue, we have to receive confirmation that the US economy really is improving. This Wednesday, we'll get a glimpse of the latest unemployment claims figures and US trade balance. On Friday, we'll also get the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment report. Recall that we had some positive NFP numbers last week, which left the bears in total exasperation as S&P 500 zoomed past the pre-Lehman level of 1200 once again and managed to hold for several days now. If we get positive numbers again this Wednesday and Friday, then we may see the bull flag formation on the S&P 500 3-year chart take full Bwahaha effect.

But will it happen? Or will we have to wait for a third test of the 1200 level to rip off the bandaid?

Either way, I'm not fully invested enough. I've had a Don't Buy Don't Sell Policy going on for a while now.

My SBA is less than half the size of my Roth IRA. I haven't done much with my Roth IRA since adding more C to it back in late September. I recently added a small lot in BAC to the SBA at $11.18, where I'm experiencing about a +12.7% paper profit in about two weeks. I need to do more, but I'm not fully convinced!

I shall study the Crown Prince C from afar and see if I should get ready to do the whole few thousand shares thing with C - even above $4. My preference is to wait for a break below $4, but we may not get there depending on this week's data. I'm also going to look for some other opportunities besides C, although from the risk:reward standpoint, it doesn't get much better than this. Yet, I don't want to go all out with C only to have the Crown Prince flop during this year's Santa Clause Rally. Last week, I discovered that it's very possible that real investors are behind the move up in C. If there's very little call and put interest at price levels above $5, then when the move happens, things can get pretty heavy. No one wants to buy, yet no one wants to sell. The options players have basically given up. This is market accumulation happening right before our eyes.

Oooh, almost forgot my report card:

+1.04% on the SBA
-1.02% on the Roth IRA (ouch!)

Friday, November 5, 2010

I Totally Forgot...

... that it was Non-Farm Payday today! But I did benefit tremendously from the trend on trend price action. The US economy added 151,000 jobs, giving my portfolio some more impetus to move a little further north.

Crown Prince C gained another +3.7%, whilst BAC tried to jump towards $13, failing at $12.71. We had much higher volume than normal on both C and BAC, with volume on C closing above 1 billion. I noticed ask sizes were much larger than usual as well, with about $45 million transactions going on occasionally with C. So I did a quick options chains analysis and $4.50 is definitely a zone to watch on C, although I have to say that the amount of open interest above $5 isn't very compelling.

If we break above $5 and stay there, then it can only mean that people with massive amounts of moola are now supporting C. Therefore, I will now take any dip below $4 as a buying opportunity. The 3-year chart on C looks like an L, so when it takes off to the upside, the move will most likely be very fast. This is the part where if you have enough patience and hold onto C for dear life, you could probably see at least a high double digit gain in a very short amount of time. Oh, correct me if I'm wrong, Professors of Finance!

I'm also pondering how and when I should exit BAC. Options chains look much more intriguing on BAC as there is heavy open interest and volume on both the call and put sides. We may very well see $14 very soon. Yippee!

Today's report card was equally yippee:

+1.71% on the SBA
+1.77% on the Roth IRA

Thursday, November 4, 2010

The Beautiful World of ForexDiva...

Today's rally gave my portfolio a much-needed boost and S&P 500 finally broke above the critical 1200 level. I've been ranting about that level for a while and now, we've got to be patient to see if it's here to stay. If yes, then this could be the start of a potential bull flag formation on a 3-year S&P 500 chart - so bears beware.

Finally, I'm getting some price action...

+1.87% on the SBA
+2.71% on the Roth IRA

The most alpha stocks in my portfolio today:

Crown Prince C with +3.34%
Sultan BCS with +4.58%
Knight BAC with +5.30%

I'm not sure if I should be lamenting the fact that I sold CENX the way I did as I did manage to get out of jail free with BAC. I'm going to watch and see if CENX can break above $15 and hold. If it does, I might do a quick play since if $15 holds, $20 is probably not going to be such a far-fetched notion. If I were you, I'd do my own homework and at least run an options chains analysis first...

Wednesday, November 3, 2010

Tea Party In the USA

Bernanke set the record straight today with a $600 billion QE2 programme. The market didn't seem to do too much, but my portfolio hasn't had a day like this in a while:

+0.69% on the SBA
+0.68% on the Roth IRA

I looked at some of the biggest winners and biggest losers that I'm following and here's how the scene appears:

ABK +9.55% [housing sector]
FOLGF +7.63% [commodity]
LDK +7.03% [alternative energy]
TGB -24.23% [commodity]
PHHM -12.73% [housing sector]
FNVRF -9.28% [alternative energy]

It would seem that risk is on, but I'm not so sure. What's really happening is the stocks that got sold prior to the announcement got bought back up again and the ones that were overbought got sold again. Commodities, housing sector, and alternative energy were all implicated since politics and policy-making were at the forefront. C got bought up before QE2, but didn't do much today. People were taking some money off the table and then buying back again.

The question is: will there be QE3? I'm sure Wall Street wouldn't be above doing a few week sell-off in order to get Bernanke to pump up the volume on the printing presses again. I'll be looking at the forex market for some confirmation. If I see the JPY pairs going crazy, then it'll be the biggest indication of where the market is really headed.

For now, I'm not too worried about BAC. BAC is no longer a QU risk asset considering that it got sold off so much this year. We managed to touch a new 52WL, but haven't broken below it for good. So just a bit more patience is in order.

But am I buying? No, I'm not buying anymore, but I am riding this till Santa comes along. Oh, Santa... I've been such a good girl this year, so I'd like a happy shiny rally for Christmas...

Tuesday, November 2, 2010

Self-Sabotage 101: Forest or the Trees?

Lately, it seems I'm on my way to earning a Masters in Self-Sabotage. Things have really gone down the drain this year. But luckily, I'm starting to get a really good feeling about C once again. It was really, really bid today - as in over 6 million shares on the table in one shot types of transactions. Based on current market prices, that's more than $24 million on the line. Someone's wearing their heart on their sleeve.

Everyone's gearing up for Bernanke's Big Moment tomorrow. Will we get a letdown or will Benny B give us the rally we've been waiting for?

S&P 500 is sooo close to the 1200 level - less than 7 points away. Closing above that would have been too obvious... but are we going to see the upswing tomorrow?

One thing's for sure... the financial sector has got momentum. ABK, for whatever reason, was up +17.72% today. BGCP, who was part of my one-night band some time back was +4.34%. Sadly, BAC doesn't seem to be entirely cooperative and my portfolio consequently lagged the market.

+0.22% on the SBA
+0.55% on the Roth IRA

This can only mean that tomorrow, whatever Bernanke says will have a major impact on my portfolio.

I've been thinking more about the forest or the trees dilemma. When it comes to trading, do we care more about the forest or the trees? If the forest is our entire portfolio and the trees are individual positions, then which do you care more about? Till now, I've been caring more about the trees. However, I deeply feel that in order to be a successful trader, we've actually got to care more about the forest.

It's led me to conjecture... should I be doing some one-touch portfolio rebalancing any time I see a very dramatic increase in my entire account? And if I did that consistently, would I be better off?

Isn't that a very deep, philosophical question indeed?

Monday, November 1, 2010

Accountant Accused Marketer of Being Madoff, Caused Her To Resign

The only thing more ridiculous than a headline like that is a headline like: Madoff Trustee Spent $26.9 million, Recovered $849,000.

The clocks were set back one hour last night in Belgium and I subsequently lost one hour of trading that I would have really enjoyed. But I got to attend the Brian Dolan webinar today, so that more than made up for it. Brian Dolan mentioned that he is the lone voice in thinking there is a possibility that the Fed may not announce the QE2 measures that everyone is anticipating on Wednesday. He showed us some charts and what was most compelling to me is the USD/JPY Daily Chart, which showed an extended, unwavering downtrend. I'm watching this move and if it hits below 75, I'm going to try to catch a falling knife.

Brian Dolan also mentioned that although the official stance of the BOJ is that they will not further intervene in the currency markets, the BOJ is using unofficial agencies to halt JPY strengthening - including the Japanese Postal Something or Other. When Brian Dolan talks about the JPY, one should definitely listen! Actually, when Brian Dolan talks about anything, one should definitely listen!

+0.47% on the SBA
-0.44% on the Roth IRA

The move down on the Roth IRA is much heavier than the move up on the SBA and I've been complaining about the economic performance of my Roth IRA for ages. Therefore, I'm going to have to do some more portfolio rebalancing. I'm paying more attention to BULIF since the LVMH / Hermes rumours are heating up. BULIF has started bouncing and now would be a good time for me to try to sell in favour of my portfolio rebalancing exercise. I'm planning to get into one of my three stocks starting with a B with that moola.

My top secret restaurant stock that I got into back in February is already +50.91%... the problem with this is that the position is too small, so even on a +50.91% move, the monetary value is a bit of a joke. Positioning definitely counts... on a small position, a -50.91% move won't hurt that much. But a +50.91% move on a small amount isn't going to be that pleasing either.

Does anyone think that my investments in Lehman junk bonds and LEHMQ will pay off? I wonder out loud...

And I also wonder out loud... I've now got five courses of action regarding my new job search:

1. look for another job within my industry, which I've already got three new targets for. If I read the signs correctly, these companies have indicated to me on some level that they were interested in poaching me whilst my salary negotiations were going on. Now, let's see if we can take my salary to an ecstatic new level.
2. look for another job on Wall Street! Yes, I'm seriously thinking I can be a success on Wall Street even though my trading doesn't show it. But I can do marketing and with a track record like mine, anyone would be lucky to have me on their team.
3. look for another job in London... oh, wouldn't the GOLs be so lucky?
4. start my own business working within my industry. I'd be able to use very little startup capital as it would be a consulting business.
5. start my own luxury business...

If you ever meet me, you will probably think... how can this little woman who's not even 5'1" be capable of all the stuff that's on my resume? But... it's not about the height, it's about the fight!