Thursday, January 31, 2013
Short NTI Feb 16 '13 $25 Put @ $0.50...
Already in a covered call position...
If I get called, this is a chance to make an additional $0.50 per share and I definitely don't mind if I get assigned on the buy side since it has a high annual dividend...
Wednesday, January 30, 2013
Sold NOR Feb 16 '13 $5 Call @ $0.95...
Not happy about this... if I get called, I lose over $0.50 per share.
But fraidy about the potential downside too...
Out of SEED @ $1.94...
Had over a +17% run so far, so am taking the whole position off until after the Bernanke settles...
Tuesday, January 29, 2013
Yeah, Rick Santelli... You Point Your Finger At Them On The Trading Floor!
Gotta love those dark-framed glasses...
Monday, January 28, 2013
Sold SPF Feb 16 '13 $8 Call @ $0.57...
Just in case I bought the market top!
Effective gross call price of $8.57...
Friday, January 25, 2013
Just Did More Math...
That 675 acre purchase could add at least another $2 billion to SPF's top line over the next few years...
If I haven't purchased the market top...
At the Risk of Buying A Market Top: Into SPF @ $8.2482...
The company just acquired 675 acres of land, so if we just get 1200 houses out of this and sell for $250,000 it could add $300 million in sales to the top line...
If we get 2700 houses and sell for $150,000 this could add $405 million in sales to the top line...
One acre equals 43560 square feet, so we can get a lot more houses out of this.
Earnings announcement on 31 January 2013...
Thursday, January 24, 2013
Into CRZBY @ $2.24...
Trading above 50 day SMA and looking for it to test its 52WH...
P/B below 1...
Wednesday, January 23, 2013
Into SOHOF @ $0.86...
Not my usual P/S and P/B below 1 type of trade, but I am awaiting the 50 SMA to cross above the 200 SMA on the 5-year Shanghai Composite Chart, which is supposed to be really bullish when it happens:
Out of JBLU @ $6.302...
Looks like the bull flag formation on the Dow Jones Transportation Average is completing on the one year chart and am fraidy about having potentially purchased a market top:
Sold NTI Feb 16 '13 $25 Call @ $0.40...
Effective gross selling price of $25.40 if called...
Cuts my purchase price to $23.65 if options expires...
Into NTI @ $24.05...
P/S below 1...
Very high dividend yield, which according to the E*Trade web site is 36.68%....
On 18 January 2013, the company announced it is issuing an additional 10.7 million common units at $24.46.
Will sell calls on this one...
Short JRCC Feb 16 '13 $3 Put @ $0.15...
Hoping I can get assigned with an effective purchase price of $2.85 right before its next earnings announcement on 25 February 2013...
If this put expires again, gross gain will be 5%...
Tuesday, January 22, 2013
Those Existing Home Sales Better Be Good...
Otherwise, I might have to have to do a lot of call selling...
Assigned Left & Right: Don't Put Me Down By Saying I'm A Call Girl...
Calls
AMD $2 Call with effective selling price of $2.58
NMR $5 Call with effective selling price of $5.95
SEED $1 Call with effective selling price of $1.50
Puts
FULT $12.50 Call with effective purchase price of $10.36
JBLU $7.50 Call with effective purchase price of $6.0277
NLY $16 Call with effective purchase price of $14.80
NOR $7.50 with effective purchase price of $6.5077
XIN $5 Call with effective purchase price of $3.8177
Expired
JRCC $3 Put
PQ $4 Put
PKD $5 Put
Friday, January 18, 2013
Assigned On Half AMD Calls...
Effective selling price of $2.58...
Please let the rest expire without getting called...
Thursday, January 17, 2013
Is It Sustainable?
That must be the question on everyone's mind.
One major metric I saw on CNBC today is that there are still over 10 million mortgages that are 'under water' - roughly 26% of the market.
The question is whether these people will continue to dig in their heels - or will some of them become foreclosures in the near future?
It seems my market top has come early and one thing I regret is not selling calls on more stocks when I had the chance. This, of course, is in retrospect.
My Roth IRA has increased circa +24% over the past three months and over +42% over the past six months after having dipped to record lows and effectively deemed a graveyard portfolio a year before.
If the market somehow continues to trend higher, I will continue to sell calls and puts. But if it goes down, am I protected?
As it stands today, my daily Roth IRA loss of -0.77% is negatively correlated with the broader stock market indices.
DJIA +0.63%
Nasdaq +0.59%
S&P +0.56%
Dow Jones Transportation Average +0.66%
Is this the basis for a cautionary tale or a buying opportunity?
Only Bernanke can tell...
Rally? Not In My Alley...
BAC -4.16% for the greater part of the trading day...
Let's see if we can close above the daily 50% Fib level.
It would take a very big push upwards of $11.435...
Tuesday, January 15, 2013
Into More SEED @ $1.5592...
Used part of the cash from selling my calls for this partial position...
Will not sell calls on this lot in case I get called on the earlier lot.
Sold SEED Jan 19 '13 $1 Call @ $0.50...
May be able to bank some money without giving up my shares...
Into SEED @ $1.56...
P/S and P/B both below 1 and Monsanto has been a name that people have been talking about a lot on CNBC. If agriculture really goes up some more, SEED could be also be lifted up with the entire industry.
Also, it is trading near enough to its 52WL...
52WH is at $4.49, so like the risk:reward ratio - even if it only tests 50% Fib level of $2.895...
Short NOR Jan 19 '13 $7.50 Put @ $1.05...
+14% potential return on options expiry...
Effective purchase price of $6.45 if assigned...
P/S below 1
Short XIN Jan 19 '13 $5 Put @ $1.24...
+24.8% potential return on options expiry...
Effective purchase price of $3.76 if assigned...
Tonnes of China data out on 17 January 2013, including GDP...
P.S. Usual P/S and P/B below 1 type of setup
Scary Thought: Obama Third Term...
Scary Thought: Obama Third Term...
P.S. I am not in any way affiliated with this Stanberry Research guy...
Closed Out CIM Jan 19 '13 $3.50 Put @ $0.75...
Gross loss of $0.05 per contract...
It turns out the company has been postponing 10-K filing for ages.
Monday, January 14, 2013
HWD: Double Acquisition Possibility?
Since HWD is only selling the Harry Winston brand, could its mining assets become the target of a second acquisition some time in the future?
I don't want to let go of my shares just yet and will try to sell some calls on HWD if the price is right. I'm targeting higher levels than the pre-market high of circa $18 this morning.
Harry's Getting Married!
My dreams of a merger between TIF and HWD have been officially dashed!
Swatch to Buy US Jeweler Harry Winston for $1 Billion
"The deal doesn't include the mining activities of Toronto-based Harry Winston Diamond Corp., Harry Winston's ultimate parent. Harry Winston Diamond Corp. will change its name to Dominion Diamond Corp. when the transaction is completed."
Friday, January 11, 2013
Short FULT Jan 19 '13 $12.50 Put @ $2.25...
Earnings announcement on 15 January 2012...
Company is still in the midst of a share buyback programme...
Closed Out TC Jan 19 '13 $5 Put @ $0.85...
Just about breakeven after commissions...
VIX has not been moving much and there has been very little upwards momentum after AA and WFC earnings announcements.
Not sure if I believe the upbeat optimism so much.
Wednesday, January 9, 2013
Short JBLU Jan 19 '13 $7.50 Put @ $1.53...
Earnings announcement on 21 January 2012...
Potential return of 20.4% on options expiry...
Effective purchase price of $5.97 if assigned...
P/S and P/B both well below 1.
Short CIM Jan 19 '13 $3.50 Put @ $0.70...
Potential return of 20% on options expiry...
Effective purchase price of $2.80 and dividend yield of circa 12.95% if assigned...
P/B slightly below 1, which is rare for an REIT...
Tuesday, January 8, 2013
Closed Out AES Jan 19 '13 $12.50 Put @ $1.77...
Loss of $0.22...
Fraidy - just not sure about it anymore!
Monday, January 7, 2013
Short PKD Jan 19 '13 $5 Put @ $0.21...
Potential return of 4% on options expiry...
If I get assigned, effective purchase price would be $4.79 per share...
Friday, January 4, 2013
Short NLY Jan 19 '13 $16 Put @ $1.31...
Potential return of +8.1%...
Effective purchase price of $14.69 if assigned...
Dividend yield of 12.26% if assigned...
Hoping it will break above 3 month resistance!
Sold 66% of FOLD @ $3.70...
Loss of -$1.04 per share, or about -23%...
Kept some shares for longer term trading in case of a rebound.
Learned a very valuable lesson: biotech puts could be toxic - especially if you don't read press releases carefully...
Short TGB Jan 19 '13 $4 Put @ $0.86...
Potential 21.5% return on options expiry...
Effective purchase price of $3.14 if assigned...
I noticed a tonne of call open interest and comparatively few puts, so the market may gravitate towards the upside.
P.S. Here's a snapshot of open interest as of now. Note thousands of contracts on the call side and only hundreds of contracts on the put side.
Short TC Jan 19 '13 $5 Put @ $0.90...
Potential return of 18% on options expiry...
Effective purchase price of $4.10 if assigned...
Wednesday, January 2, 2013
Short AES Jan 19 '13 $12.50 Put @ $1.55...
12.4% potential return...
Effective assignment price = $10.95...
P/S way below 1...
Kicked the Can Down The Road: Three More Fiscal Cliffs Are Looming...
If it doesn't make sense when translated into Chinese, it doesn't make sense in Congress...
Fiscal Cliff Deal: Three More Fiscal Cliffs Are Looming (Courtesy CNN...)
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