Thursday, October 29, 2009

Shut Up & Trade: Trade Review 281009, Trading Ego Central

Not only has my blog become Trading Ego Central, it also seems like I'm on a secret mission to lose money, doesn't it?

I stopped myself out of this trade with a Stop & Reverse, which I promptly closed out with an additional small loss. Total loss on this trade was -24.72.

The thing I'm most ticked off about is that USD/CHF finally did start to break down after I got out of the trade. I know this sometimes happens, but how does one distinguish between a trading ego and trading conviction? It's a very fine line isn't it. I think my mistake with this trade was being emotional and inconsistent. I always wait for the break to happen before getting into the trade, but this time, I jumped in head first too soon and hit the bottom of the pool.

For those that secretly smirk about my mini-lots, there's nothing wrong with having a small account and big dreams. Still, I am looking to develop a scalable strategy and since I'm still experimenting with my trading, I'd rather continue with mini-lots than have any unwelcome surprises.

I'd been condemning myself since last night, but then finally realised that we are not only as smart as our stops, but also as dumb as our stops. So, my previous Bimbo Trading the Wrong Side of the Road Trade was only a -1.97 pip bimbo trade whereas this USD/CHF trade turned out to actually be more bimbo from a money management perspective even though the trade philosophy was actually sound. Whatever your reason or bias for being in a trade, sometimes, I think trading conviction actually ends up hurting us more than we realise.

After a stream of expletives, I'm finally a bit calmer. The positive US GDP report and my portfolio being +3.57% so far do help.

I've got to at least do better than minimum wage on my next trades. Otherwise, this would all be a colossal waste of time, wouldn't it?

Guys of London, help me out here!

Wednesday, October 28, 2009

Shut Up & Trade: Volume 281009, Don't Trade The Wrong Direction

Today was a major disaster for the equities market. My portfolio was -4.03% in a single day.

I’m thinking safe haven… maybe USD/CHF?

Or... maybe the USD will be the safe haven beneficiary?? It would make sense… EUR/USD, GBP/USD, et al have all flopped… I think there may be further USD strength to come - like Rusty says. I'm looking at USD/CHF though and I feel CHF will strengthen against the USD unlike other pairs like GBP/USD and EUR/USD. It could make sense since EUR/USD and USD/CHF are mainly negatively correlated…

USD/CHF 15 minute

Here’s what I’m going to do…

I’m looking for the little horizontal level to break in either direction. However, I have a bias this time and it’s for USD/CHF to break down in favour of CHF.

Major support level at 1.0035…

From current level, that’s more than 250 pips. I'm short @ 1.02578.
Stop above 1.0285

First target = 1.02

Ultimate target = 1.0035, but if there’s even more bearishness there, I’m going to move my limit some more. Greedy? Bwah haha… Halloween-type evil laughter. LOL.

Round Two...

Wow, if this is the Buy the Dip Moment I was waiting for, it sure does hurt. -4.03% today. Definitely hard to swallow and a doubly painful day considering the breakdown in commodities currencies that I missed by bimboly trading in the wrong direction. Oh, my trading attempts really are futile. Will I ever make a good trade?

I'm going to try again because it's certainly too late to stop now.

Harry Winston? He hated my serenading too, turning into the hero that ran -10.81% the other direction whilst I was all damsel in distress.

I think I'm going to try to keep the powder dry like the Guys of London like to say. Am I going to seem too conservative if I say I want to wait for a 50% retracement to buy anything now?

High beta is not always going to be so fun, is it?

Shut Up & Trade: Trade Review 271009, Trading Ego In Overdrive

This just in – woman trading on the wrong side of the road got out with barely a scrape, just -1.97 pip. Other traders secretly smirked as woman continued trading in the wrong direction for almost two hours – barely batting an eyelash.

Trading ego: the size of Belgium.

Trading philosophy: oil is about to break down, so short commodities currencies. Look for stop-running potential. Get super-excited and even start serenading in out-of-tune, squeaky voice.

Currency Pair: USD/CAD

Execution: Fatally flawed.

Trading Ego Magazine: What were you thinking – trading in the wrong direction for two hours straight?

ForexDiva: I am not going to even start making excuses for myself. I tend to use my innate bimbo-ness as an excuse for poor trading, but find that after two years of serious forex trading where I studied technical analysis with all my heart, I should definitely stop hiding behind the fa├žade of being a bimbo. It’s only hurting myself and I could have caused some serious bandaid ripping incidents too.

Trading Ego Magazine: How do you feel right now? Are you still going to continue trading?

ForexDiva (tears in eyes): Honestly, this could have been the final straw that broke the diva’s back. However, as I said before, I have been trading forex for two years now and although it appears I haven’t been completely serious about it at times – or even respected the sanctity of trading very much, I do put in the effort and have been dedicated. I will have to perhaps simplify my future trades somewhat. Directionality and math are not my fortes. When I’m in NYC, I have to ask for directions all the time. This whole oil south, USD north thing… wait, did I even get that right? So, yes, I don’t know left from right there, but strict money management, a little bit of luck, and a trading ego the size of Belgium saved me on this trade. If I had a trading ego the size of China, that would have been a different story. But let’s be politically correct here.

Trading Ego Magazine: Are you feeling any remorse at all?

ForexDiva: Yes, definitely. I told myself, I’ll be able to forgive myself with this trade by taking a conservative hit because I clearly didn’t think this trade through completely. I still don’t get it. If oil’s going down, then USD has to be going up. So that means I have to be long USD/CAD, right? Why did I short it? Looking at it from the technical analysis perspective, it says to short because I see the stop-running potential is greater with a short. But maybe the stop-running potential dates back from way back when… Plus, I just was trading the wrong direction. No excuse for not knowing left from right.

Trading Ego Magazine: Any other remarks?

ForexDiva: The road to profits is clearly paved with good losses. This was a good loss. And I’m going to do my best to redeem myself. Three more trading days till the week ends… But, could someone please hold my hand? I think I need a hug too. (faints)

Tuesday, October 27, 2009

Shut Up & Trade, Volume 271009: Something Kinda Ooooh...?

USD/CAD 15 minute

Things are lining up here...

Rusty said money has been flowing out of the equities market and into the commodities market.

So, I looked at a few commodities currency pairs et voila! Profit potential everywhere. Oil is potentially bearish to me, so I'm looking to short commodities currencies.

USD/CAD seems a bit more convincing...

I am trying not to be prejudicial / prejudgmental / bias-ist (?) here... I have to look for levels from both sides...

But, it seems like USD/CAD has been in a bit of an uptrend for quite a few days now, so there must be a lot of stops building up there too.

The question is… do I have to wait for oil to break down before I sell USD/CAD?

Pondering aside...

Shorted @ 1.0641
Stop above 1.0668
Limit = 1.056

I don't know whether USD/CAD is one of those slow pairs, but if it is, I'd probably need to go back to JPY crosses again. Not a very patient woman.

Yeah, seems like this pair doesn't move very much either.

Arrggghhh... not another few hours in a trade. I like the wham, bam, thank you ma'am ones...

In the meantime, this song Something Kinda Ooooh... totally was written for Harry Winston, especially since he brought my portfolio down another -1.27% today!

Gosh, I didn't do the wrong trade did I?? Was I supposed to go long? Bimbo? It wouldn't be a first... OK, whatever, I'll just stay in the trade and see what happens...

Monday, October 26, 2009

Serious Depression...

I'm seriously depressed. My portfolio's down -2.58% so far. Is the fun over?

Too big to fail jokes aside, my BAC position has been one of my best moves so far. I went from minus four figures to plus three figures with this position. However, after two consecutive retracement days - or was it three - I'm wondering if I should be using my non-conventional, bordering on lunatic strategies - serenading for one and eyelash batting for another.

I'm going to take some more decisive action with C too. Yes, I've decided to nurse this position.

Here's why... when you think about it, there will come a day when BAC and C will start increasing their dividends again. When that happens, my dividend yield on those stocks will improve. If they double their dividend, I've effectively doubled my dividend yield on those stocks. Moreover, there's also going to be considerable share appreciation - hopefully, anyway.

Let's take BAC as an example. Back in the day, BAC's quarterly dividend was about $0.64. Let's suppose BAC's quarterly dividend grows to $0.64 again at some point. At today's prices, that's a future dividend yield of 16.66%! Woohoo!

I've got till early next year to contribute to my Roth IRA. I'll fill it up with as much BAC and C shares as possible...

But first, premeditated debt obliteration...

Sunday, October 25, 2009

Some More Rusty Says...

I've been following Rusty Vanneman's E*Trade market commentary for some time and find that he's had quite an excellent grasp of market directionality for at least the past two quarters.

Last week, I attended another one of his webinars. Here are some notes - and I hope I'm not putting any words in his mouth, because admittedly, I was a bit sleepy, but here goes:

1. We're officially in a bull market, which is defined as a move of +20%.
2. The typical bull market run yields +114% and lasts about 47 months. So, given this, the current market has a good chance of running further. We might see a bit of 'the greater the drop, the greater the bounce' type thing going on.
3. Typical perma-bears are good for marketing, but not for investing. LOL.
4. Valuations still tend to be low at this point in time, so basically if we're careful, we can still find good value for our money. Sectors he's looking at: healthcare, technology, consumer staples, and energy.
5. Apparently, a lot of money has been flowing out of the stock market recently. Seems the beneficiary has been the commodities market. However, in general, investors are in a 'buy the dip' kind of mood.
6. Rusty's bullish on the USD at this point in time.
7. In previous crises, 2.6% of GDP was the typical stimulus response. During this crisis, stimulus levels have reachd about 10% of GDP.
8. Low GDP / Low CPI, believe it or not, leads to good stock market returns.

Rusty, we love you! Oops - perhaps a bit too enthusiastic there. For God's sake, he's married. Get a grip, ForexDiva!

Coin Toss

What's the score? I tallied up my Shut Up & Trade entry results. If I had traded my plan, I would be net +269.2 this month, which leads me to believe that I should definitely start trusting myself more.

Right now, my probability is a coin toss, which would be a 50% win rate.

I needed to go through this phase in order to gain a perspective on what's working and what's not working.

What's not working is clearly my trading psychology. Now that I see for myself that even a 50% win rate could result in an overall net gain, I am going to take more decisive actions in my trading. My forex broker had been telling me this all along and it had always been in one ear and out the next.

The most interesting things to note are:

1. The majority of my trades have a risk:reward ratio of 3 or above.

2. My stop losses are all below 45 pips. The ability to be a fraidy cat is perhaps the most important part of my money management strategy. I have used bigger stops before - to my detriment. Therefore, I have become very diva about keeping very strict stops.

This Week: Plan My Trade, Trade My Plan (Hopefully For Real) Week

We're all going to make it one day!! At least, I know I am. LOL.

Tuesday, October 20, 2009

Harry Winston: Failure to Perform

Gosh, that's some failure to perform, Harry Winston! Down -5.24% so far today, dragging my entire portfolio down by -1.08%.

Speaking of failure... another book on the Lehman failure is being published today. Should be an interesting read.

I'm putting my trading ego aside today and considering taking a potentially more bullish stance on GBP/JPY. However, I am admittedly not in a very alert state of mind today. Sooner or later, when someone googles futile trading attempts, there'll be a link to my blog. This is obviously taking a psychological toll on me. That Ion Media restructuring fiasco did not help. This morning, I was half wishing that European Summer Time would end already since I'm definitely not a morning person. Perhaps the best thing for me today is not to trade.

But the ultimate rejection? I'd imagine it would be someone who actually ends up building a tremendous net worth and then getting rejected by Coutts as a client. The British are the original divas, I'd say.

Monday, October 19, 2009

Montblanc Etoile Mysterieuse Again

Finally, Harrods emailed me back with pricing on the Montblanc Etoile Mysterieuse. It's available in a fountain pen and a rollerball. Both are £ 8,000 each - so about $13,095 USD. Small price to pay for perfection, huh?

This is obviously not a matter of need... it's a matter of want!
I will have to do either a lot of saving or a lot of good trading!

That Was Pretty Amazing, Harry Winston!

+10.99% in one session?

Smokin' hot!

All other positions seem status quo, but somehow Harry Winston carried my portfolio again, giving me an overall +1.92%.

I hope HWD's headed further north! That would definitely make up for that GBP/JPY trade, which I'm still fuming about. Once I cool down, I'll look for other, hopefully better trades.

Ion Media: When Junk = Junk

It seems like I've been missing out on a lot of news lately. Apparently, Ion Media issued its joint plan of reorganisation in relation to its Chapter 11 bankruptcy filing back in August. Where was I all this time? Correct answer: Bimbo Land.

Anyway, it does not look good for low priority bondholders of CUSIP 46205AAB9, such as myself.

Basically, they are proposing the following:

Class 1 Creditors will more or less receive the full amount of their claims in cash (page 22).

Class 2 Creditors will have the $150 million debt that Ion Media owes them exchanged for 62.5% of new equity in the reorganised Ion Media. This seems like a good deal for them in my opinion when you consider what the rest of the lower priority creditors get. Class 4 and Class 5 Creditors are funding this entire reorganisation (see below).

Class 3 Creditors receive a 37.5% share of equity.

Class 4 Creditors will receive warrants to purchase 5% of new common stock for $1 billion. If I did the math correctly, this means that anyone who exercises these warrants is effectively paying for the company as if it is worth $20 billion.

Class 5 Creditors will receive warrants to purchase 5% of new common stoc for $1.5 billion. Here, we are paying for the company as if it is worth $30 billion. LOL.

And according to Ion's own Web site, "all outstanding ION equity interests, including common stock, preferred stock and any options, warrants or rights to acquire any equity interests, will be cancelled and extinguished and holders thereof will not receive a distribution."

This is worse than my GBP/JPY trade from Friday!

Unless, for some odd reason Ion's new stock skyrockets and its market cap exceeds $30 billion. I wonder how old I'll be when that happens?

Sunday, October 18, 2009

Shut Up & Trade, Trade Review 161009

I wore my little black dress to my Lunchtime Fun with the Guys of London trade and not only got booed, but stopped out. Apparently, they have no fashion sense whatsoever. Never mind that my little black dress is a few seasons old. A classic is a classic.

What happened?

On Friday, 16 October 2009, I sold GBP/JPY at 148.73, targeting 146. I wasn't even 30 minutes into the trade when it got to about +15 pips or so, at which point I had to head back to work from my lunch break. Therefore, I set my stop at 149.11 and due to a minor break above 149, I was thrown out of the trade and became water under the GBP/JPY bridge.

In hindsight, I allowed my greed to get the better of me. I looked at the profit potential and ignored my most important money management rule, which is never to allow a retracement hit me on the way out.

I'm still so ticked off even though I only trade mini-lots, which means my loss was about 41 pips. Not that I'm a sore loser (OK, perhaps a bit), but I'm still convinced that there's massive downwards potential on this trade. Sometimes, I wonder if I was Swiss in a previous life. I mean, if I have to care so much about a 41 pip loss... (No offense to the Swiss, but they're just very... exacting).

The way I see it is this: the Guys of London started selling this pair the moment they started trading. About the time they started heading to the pub, they'd only tracked a day range of a bit over 130 pips. That's nothing in GBP/JPY World. They don't call it a day just like that.

Something is going on here and therefore, I'm convinced that the coming trading week will see more action.

One time, I was at a Brian Dolan webinar and he mentioned something about a self-limiting circuit breaker. It got me thinking... I'm so like a self-limiting circuit breaker with my trading.

I've got to do better!

How much farther now, Papa Smurf? Not far now!

Thursday, October 15, 2009

More Drama with Lehman?

I found out late, but this could potentially be good for Lehman bondholders... According to my calculations, the $46.2 billion that the Fed collected ahead of the bankruptcy filing could add another $0.38 on the dollar to Lehman's recovery value - for bondholders, that is.

The Fed should definitely get back in line with other creditors!!

Rusty Says...

This week was supposed to be Plan Your Trade, Trade Your Plan Week, but instead turned into another All Talk No Action Week. But no worries, because Rusty's back with some bullish views.

If he's right, then my portfolio's going straight up!

Still, I'm looking for my Lunchtime Fun with the Guys of London trade tomorrow. Maybe I'll be able to redeem myself with a good GBP/JPY trade...

All Talk No Action, Trade Review 141009

This cannot happen again! I didn't get in this trade and again, I missed out big time. I'm not even going to pretend that I tried very much to get into the trade. After my blog yesterday, I basically waited not even two candles and shut my trading platform down. My lack of self-confidence had a lot to do with it, but at the same time, I really believe that a good trader probably wouldn't get very much sleep.

If I were a Hell's Kitchen contestant, Gordon Ramsay would not only be shouting expletives at me, but telling me: "Not good enough, ForexDiva! Now take off your jacket and leave Hell's Kitchen." Thankfully, my cooking is better than my trading, but I'd much rather be making some extra money at this point, although I'd imagine it would be possible to be both a great cook and a great trader.

Anyway, I digress and am skirting the issue. From now on, I've either got to set a trade alert or learn to programme my own automatic trading strategy. I hadn't even realised there could be so many good forex trading opportunities until I started doing this All Talk No Action online trading journal of mine.

I am such a semi-trader! This has got to change.

Wednesday, October 14, 2009

Shut Up & Trade, Volume 141009

Ooohhh... Just had my weekly 90 minute massage. My portfolio’s +2.28% today. I got an unexpected discount whilst shopping. So, in essence, life is good.

I looked at a few charts today and nothing convincing on either USD/CHF, EUR/USD, GBP/JPY, or GBP/USD.

Then I switched to EUR/GBP, 60 minute chart and saw something slightly compelling.

I want to either:

Sell a break of 0.92995
Stop above 0.93207
Target = 0.9165
Risk:Reward = 6.34


Buy a break above 0.9355
Stop below 0.93293
Target = At 0.94, watch what happens… If bullish conditions are evident, bring target to 0.955.
Risk:Reward = 1.75 if it gets to 0.94, 7.58 if it gets to 0.955

Slight bearish divergence favours the selling, but at the same time, it looks to me like either a bull flag or a double top could form.

It would be nice if I can both get in the trade and stay in the trade, wouldn’t it?

Tuesday, October 13, 2009

The Life In A Pocket Tie From Hermes...

Includes a hidden pocket designed to hold a condom - seriously...

If it wasn't for charity, that would be pretty hilarious. OK, maybe even if it is for charity, it's still pretty hilarious, but obviously still very fashionable in three different colours.

Click on "committed tie" for details.

Wow, I suddenly feel less bad about that USD/CHF trade...

Pattern Anticipation & Market Concentration

I'm not going to shut up and trade today because I didn't find any suitable trades on either USD/CHF or GBP/JPY. But I did notice the DJIA has been in a bull flag pattern for a while and we are nearly reaching the top of the bull flag projection.

For me, this means I should pay very close attention to how DJIA holds up, especially since the majority of my stocks are high beta stocks.

I'd like to get more into pattern anticipation and will need to find the right tools for this. I suppose Elliott Wave could be one of the tools. What else could work? Hmmm...

On another note, I think market concentration has a lot to do with why the market rebound seems to have been unbelievably rapid. When you think about it, the market is now in fewer hands since Lehman collapsed and Bear Stearns and Merrill were acquired. There are a lot less players and if the structure of the market has changed, this could hopefully have positive implications for stock prices. However, again, it could be the proverbial double edged sword, depending on how the last few standing have positioned themselves.

Shut Up & Trade, Trade Review Volume 121009

This trade should have been called The Big Oh (No)! Three hours into the trade and the most it got to was about +9 pips. I got out with exactly none and not only was I ticked off, but pretty emotionally volatile and clearly disappointed. Good thing I'm not the violent type. Oh, just a few expletives will do for me.

When it was at +9 pips, I was thinking: 9 pips in 3 hours... this isn't even minimum wage. I have to get out with more financial dignity than that! Then, it started retracing and I was back at zero in no time. At that point, I considered my breakeven point a new high and didn't want to take any further risk. Big mistake. After being stuck in a price rut for a few more hours, USD/CHF finally broke down and now I regret not staying in the trade as it quite nearly hit my target 2. It is my own fault for being such a fraidy cat, but honestly, USD/CHF is like the slowest pair ever. I probably have to go back to GBP/JPY quite soon. With GBP/JPY, a lot happens in 3 hours. I require action!

The trouble with my trading is that I only trade one mini lot, so 9 pips is just $9. Therefore, I need to look for a very high reward to make any substantial gain.

This trade is worse than say, waiting three hours for a guy to show up and he barely buys you a drink? Next time, I better look around and bat my eyelashes at another guy who will. USD/CHF is a bit of a snooze button.

Come to think of it, my new strategy of looking for two or three misses in a row is kind of like those old ladies who stalk slot machine losers and end up winning the jackpot. OMG, I'm using old lady strategies already. This can't be the beginning of the end already?

I suppose the worst thing anyone could wish anyone in trading is "don't let the retracement hit you on your way out." Oops!

I'll have to reassess... It's clearly my trading psychology here: too afraid to lose, but too greedy to only accept 9 pips. If only I didn't want that Montblanc pen so much.

Monday, October 12, 2009

Shut Up & Trade, Volume 121009

So no more I'll do the talking, you do the walking. I really want to do a trade today, but un cafe s'il vous plait! I'm ready to Zzzzz...

I do see a potential bear flag formation on the 15 minute USD/CHF.

Current level is about 1.0263. I am short, stop above 1.028. Limit = 1.0228.

If more bearishness presents itself at 1.0228, I'm moving my limit to 1.019.

Risk:Reward = 3.49 if it goes to 1.019... 1.65 if it only gets to 1.0228.

The reason for my trade: H & S failed and this is a second bearish sign. Plus, I really want that Montblanc pen! If this trade ends up failing, I'll look for a third bearish pattern and try again.

The Montblanc Etoile Mysterieuse

After a busy week, I had to work part of the weekend. So, imagine my delight when I discovered that Montblanc recently launched the Montblanc Etoile Mysterieuse at Harrods.

They didn't list a price on their Web site, but my guess is that it would be somewhere in the five figures since the
Montblanc Gandhi was priced at 17,000 Euros. I emailed them to find out the price, but I suppose what they say about the need to ask for a price equating to one being unable to afford something could be true in this case.

Alas... but I really want it!

Sunday, October 11, 2009

Am I Better Off Today Than A Year Ago?

Getting into the global financial crisis, my portfolio was in really bad shape. I had committed financial suicide with:

a. shopaholic tendencies
b. a substantial forex trading loss
c. terrible portfolio diversification
d. all of the above

Now, a little over a year after Lehman collapsed, I am asking myself whether I am better off today? Did I learn enough? Did I do enough?

Throughout the crisis, I invested another high four figure sum into my equities portfolio. After all this, I am better off percentage wise (+6.93% to be exact), but not in dollar terms. However, if I had just sat back and let the market take its course, my entire portfolio would be -70% today with no recovery in sight. That's a scary thought.

I've had some winners and some losers. But all in all, when I had averaged into a position, I ended up better off the majority of the time with the exception of C. I've got to turn this one around.

When I think about it, I still might have got it all wrong. I mean, I spent more on my Big Holiday than I did investing in my portfolio.

The bigger question, I suppose, is will my JBQ strategy work? And that takes time to ascertain.

I wish Rusty would say something - anything...

In the meantime, I keep telling myself that the darkest hour is right before dawn.

Friday, October 9, 2009

I'm Done With KO...

Sold it at a very, very minor profit. But I'm going on with my debt obliteration process. If I hadn't done the whole Big Holiday thing this year, I would have been about 5 figures better off. Yes, I really know how to spend!

Honestly, KO was a good way to save some cash. If I'd had the cash in hand, I would have probably traded my cash for some trash.

This is a time where I'm focusing on paring down all the excess baggage from my life. I'm already getting ready for the New Year as December is practically around the corner. Isn't everyone looking forward to a new year?

My HWD position is also back on track, which gets me very excited. However, I'm definitely looking to keep HWD for the long term. It's my absolute favourite position so far - other than BAC and perhaps NYX.

C is another story...

Shut Up & Trade, Trade Review Volume 081009

So my entry target from yesterday's trade idea was a miss and the trade totally ran the other direction. Just as well? Maybe not. But I'm going to stop with this brown paper bag over my head business and start building my own confidence levels. So this trade was a miss. There will be another, perhaps even better, trade.

Next week is Plan Your Trade, Trade Your Plan Week - at least for me. I'm going to start actually putting my money where my mouth is - or at least try.

No point in doing all the analysis if I'm not going to learn from it or act on it.

What did occur to me is that I should pay more attention to what the market is doing at the levels I've pinpointed before I take action. I have to stop myself from being so impulsive. How are prices reacting at my ideal entry levels and at the levels I want to place my stop?

I have to learn how to read market behaviour more accurately. And not only is hindsight important, but foresight is perhaps even more important.

When I look at my trade setups from both the bullish and bearish perspective as I'm formulating my trading plan, I have a much clearer view. It's a lot more work, but I think it's work that'll pay off.

Good luck with your trading! We're all going to make it one day!!

Thursday, October 8, 2009

Shut Up & Trade, Volume 081009

So, I've been all self-contradictory again lately. I haven't either shut up or traded. But that's OK.

I see a potential H & S formation on the USD/CHF that looks slightly intriguing.

I usually don’t like H & S patterns, but this one actually looks like it might break. MACD looks increasingly bearish.

If it breaks below the mini triangle formation, I might sell a break below 1.0249.

Target 1.0171.

Stop above 1.0272.

3.39 Risk:Reward

Wednesday, October 7, 2009

Shut Up & Trade, Trade Review Volume 061009

Oh, dear God! Considering that I'm the woman who brought you the Tossed A Pair of Diamond Earrings Down the Drain Incident, it should come as no surprise that I managed to do something really bimbo with this trade - and that is not to get into it.

I guess I could toss you an excuse such as, well the breakout only occurred at 2:30 am my time, which leads me to ponder... am I really that serious about trading? And why am I using my bimbo-ness as an excuse again?

Well, the highest USD/CHF got to was 1.036 - so this is like losing 77 pips for me. Missing out is just as bad as losing.

I did cover my assets by doing the whole double take with my analysis, but I think I'm starting to like that approach. How many times have I not taken a trade because I was set on a bullish or bearish standpoint? Now, I'm emulating my forex broker's fine example and not really being so opinionated on direction, but levels. Speaking of my forex broker, he just started hosting trading webinars on Thursdays. He did a really good job last week - such a smart guy!

Anyway, 77 pips might not seem like a big deal to you, but usually, I get out with 10 pips and under. Yes, I'm running a dime store with my trading. Can't buy Harry Winston, but that's OK. Speaking of Harry Winston, I think I might be in love with him again? +1.14% so far - no wilted flowers there, but not exactly moonlight and candles either. Oh, but he had me at bonjour!

At the very least, the brown paper bag can come off now. I'm going to now test out my new trade setup some more, but all I really want to do is dream about Harry Winston, really.

Shut Up & Trade, Volume 061009

Ooohhh... buy 1 get 1 free?

This pattern on the USD/CHF 15 minute looks awfully familiar.

Yesterday, I wanted to go long and only someone crazy would go long again after encountering the abject failure top flop scenario I encountered yesterday.

But this looks like a buy 1 get 1 free offer to me - something to seriously consider.

For one, MACD support seems to be prominent. Things might be different this time around since MACD is getting stronger.

I'm thinking a break above 1.0283 warrants a long with a stop below 1.026 and a target of 1.036 with a conservative trailing stop.

I'd add a Scene 2 to this trade setup: break below 1.0236 and it could be deja vu. Short @ 1.023 and target 1.017 with an initial stop at 1.0247, trailing conservatively along the way.

I'll try and try again... One day I'll make it!

At the least, I'll learn from it!

Tuesday, October 6, 2009

OMG, This Must Be More Embarrassing Than My Trading!

I am not ready to take off the brown paper bag from my head, but I officially do not consider myself Gen Y if the 80 Million Strong Movement is going to ruin our good name! The question is to what extent are they asking for a bailout? Why don't they try trading? Or enter the FT Essay Contest for a chance to win $7500... And I'm semi-serious here. What's the government going to do but tax the people who are working to death?

On another note, this here could only mean one thing: higher taxes and greater bureaucracy.

Am I the only one noticing the growing socialist movement happening across the world with all governments? Kind of scarier than my trading, really...

Harry Winston, Harry Winston, wherefore art thou?

Shut Up & Trade, Trade Review Volume 051009

Oh, no! I'm a second runner up. Does anyone have a brown paper bag I can borrow? I need it to cover my face in shame.

My very first Shut Up & Trade journal and it gets stopped out.

Lessons Learned:

1. Heed divergences.
2. Figure out when to Stop & Reverse

The only thing that would have hurt more would have been if I'd actually done the trade. I hope no one else listened to me.

Gosh, I might even have to shorten this section to simply Shut Up.

I'm still going to try... we've got to be in it to win it, right? And this totally makes me take trading more seriously.

Monday, October 5, 2009

What Am I Going to Do With Harry Winston?

Last week, he sent me wilted flowers. Today, he was all +7.21%.

Since I've got the wilted flowers already, I might as well do the whole 'he loves me, he loves me not' thing. But, I'm really not into wilted flowers. And don't the wilted flowers speak louder than words? I'd have to wait until at least 14 December 2009 before I take further action as that's the next earnings date.

Overall, my portfolio was +2.49% today.

Small consolation prize, I suppose, in return for my hero Ken Lewis leaving BAC.

Shut Up & Trade, Volume 051009

Here goes... my very first Shut Up & Trade journal entry.

I've never done a USD/CHF trade, but after looking at a 15 minute chart, see something quite interesting. I don't know whether I'll actually take the trade since I'm such a fraidy cat.

But this looks like a breakout waiting to happen. I want to wait for a break above the little horizontal line around 1.032 and target 1.04. Stop would be below 1.03...

I'll do a trade review - possibly tomorrow.

I'm a bimbo you know... Do your own homework!

Thursday, October 1, 2009

Je M'Appelle ForexDiva

Just when I thought I might as well take some time to learn some French beyond Hermes et un cafe s'il vous plait, I've been awaken from my beauty sleep - and not by a prince turned frog.

After months of inactivity, I'm seeing some of the forex market footprints that I recognise. Is my charming yet seductively smokin' hot knight in shining armour just around the corner? He wouldn't happen to be... Bernanke or Tim Geithner would he?

Oooh... this puts me in a much more gung ho mood!

I'm going to start doing a new section called Shut Up & Trade. This will be a trading journal type thing where I list out all my practice trades with exact entry and exit levels as well as a trade review. If you want to make a good trade, just do the opposite of what I'm doing. LOL.

Change or be changed is what they say. Here I am sitting on my laurels all summer. I've got to start doing some more homework. And this is it! I'll test out different pairs and be much more experimental. I won't just be all Little Black Dress and Little Red Dress.

Champagne? Oui.

Profitability? S'il vous plait.

I don't know why I'm in such a good mood considering that my portfolio's down -2.86%, but I suppose the French language is just very poetic.

On the fashion front, the weather is just about right to pull out the Burberry Trench Coat. If only I wasn't so poor, I'd perhaps be able to afford one... Someday...