Friday, July 30, 2010
So yesterday, one of the biggest news stories seemed to be Gold-diggers Anonymous banning some quote unquote inappropriate language from their email system. If that was big news, why should anyone be so concerned that the stock market might once again tank? I'm especially optimistic after seeing this article about investor sentiment improving. You will also notice that many FWF sector stocks are moving up as well, including debt-laden SKS (Saks).
I especially feel good about Sultan BCS. Barcap is apparently moving up, especially when it comes to global mergers and acquisitions. I'm still going to evaluate BAC and other stocks. I've become much more inclined to place price action first, balance sheet second.
Today, after seeing the GOLs get near 1.57, I wanted to use some inappropriate language myself, but if European currencies are moving up, then things are lining up for another leg up. As in... very firm profits could soon be making a lot of people's assets much more liquid. So, I hope the short-sellers will wake up one day and find themselves in very deep water.
Not much going on with my portfolio today and I'm going on holiday next week, so don't miss me and my bold-faced sighs too much! You know you will, oh Muscular, Alpha, Manly Sultans of Liquidity...
+0.35% on the SBA
-0.09% on the Roth IRA
Wednesday, July 28, 2010
Sultan BCS and Prince Citifrog both took a wrong turn today, leaving my portfolio with a bit of a twisted ankle when all I wanted was a tiny bit of upwards momentum:
-1.55% on the SBA
-1.10% on the Roth IRA
I have decided to do the following with BCS. I'm going to watch the levels carefully and if the opportunity arises, I may or may not switch gears and move in with BAC. Timing a move is very difficult to do with a high beta stock such as BCS. BCS has a beta of 2.7, which is even higher than HWD. The bid and ask differentials are often very big with high beta stocks, which is where the fun comes in. Winners win big and losers? Well, they can lose their shirt in basically one untimely WM Moment.
BAC has been hovering near the $13-$14 range for a while now and since I got out of that hundreds of shares position earlier in the year, I haven't had much going on with BAC for quite some time. So, I decided to look at some potential reasons to buy BAC. Options are not looking particularly pleasing and there may be some more downwards momentum - perhaps to sub $13. However, one very interesting thing about BAC is that the Insider Activity in BAC seems a bit on the compelling side.
Cotty Neil, an affiliated person, is planning a sale of 15,000 shares on 20 August 2010. The aforementioned affiliated person has sold numerous times since June 2010. I think it's right to disregard this as a bit insignificant. He's sold over 25,000 shares from what I could see. It could be seen as selling with everyone else, including CEO Moynihan, who also sold tonnes of shares.
On 22 July, BAC's CFO Noski bought 6,000 shares at $13.50 - $13.70. Now this is the compelling part. This purchase occurred a few days after the BAC earnings announcement and if I recollect correctly, BAC earnings disappointed. So, if I am forced to get out of position with Sultan BCS, then I'll see if I can get in with BAC below the CFO's entry level - perhaps coinciding with Cotty Neil's timely departure. The CFO getting in with some shares is significant to me - perhaps even more significant than the CEO selling. He's the guy who knows more about the real financial status of BAC - perhaps even more so than the CEO himself.
I will only get out of BCS if necessary. I like the Sultan's balance sheet a lot more than BAC, but price action wise, BAC could also be due for a jump on the treasure trunk.
Overall, I am a bit confused as usual. Shanghai closed above the 2,500 level and Nikkei even rallied +2.7%. FTSE and Europe failed to follow through. Gold and oil declined slightly. The greatest love story of all time in the foreseeable future would be Shanghai staying above 2,500... DJIA moving above 10,700... S&P keeping the 1100 level... Nikkei breaking 10,000... FTSE above 5500... Europe firmly above 1000. That would be a Major Bwahaha to the Short-Sellers to the 500 Quadrillion Power, wouldn't it.
I am going to start observing the direction of corn just to see if there's any correlation whatsoever. Who knows? It could be meaningful, or it could be a complete waste of time. But if I find something insightful by studying corn futures, it could give me an edge.
The important thing is that I am open and ready to learn about the market more once again! I am not going to have any secret fantasies (or try not to at least) about how we'll have unrelentless, unwavering growth for the next sixteen quarters and how all the short-sellers will be forced to join in the Rally of the Century.
Tuesday, July 27, 2010
Well, only when you're trading.
It was a beautiful day in my neighbourhood today and Sultan BCS had a summer party in my portfolio with a +6.87% straight up move supported by volume that's 2.29 times the 10-day average. In the middle of the session, when BCS retraced to slightly below $21, I got jittery and thought... should I sell? But then, in a moment of clarity, I checked LON:BARC and noticed that BARC had an even more stunning overture of +7.57%. BCS had only gotten to a bit above 5% then, and I decided then and there to ride it a bit more. I got paid!
My big question mark, as usual, is... now that I'm already +20.71% into the position, should I do more? A glance at the charts shows $24 as the Fraidy Cat Level where everyone started selling BCS around the Hung Parliament Incident. Around 29 April 2010, BARC was at 364.45 pence. With the GOL making GBP/USD so alpha, would I be nutty not to be so slutty? After all, it makes sense that all who were short at $24 would place their stops above $24 - unless they've already cut their losses (taken profit, rather). It's hard to tell. With volume so high and the BCS earnings announcement out on 5 August, BCS was decidedly bid up until the final trading minutes of the day. So, I'm thinking there's still more upside to this bull ride.
I see zero puts on BCS for August and calls are well supported with lots of open interest.
Whilst C could hardly be classified as an up-and-comer today, bid size on C was very, very tantalising. I'll put myself out there and spread some conjecture that it might get to $5. $4 looks well supported in terms of options analysis. We saw a lot of call volume at $4 and there are very little puts at $5. It all depends on the market's mood, unfortunately. At this point in time, $5 looks promising. DJIA is getting closer and closer to 10,700 and S&P closed above 1100 yet again.
No change on the SBA
+2.37% on the Roth IRA
In case anyone wasn't noticing, my Roth IRA is in the Honeygreen once again with a very firm profit. There's still a lot to be recovered on my SBA.
I'm keeping my options open on the forex front and ready to move if anything even slightly bearish starts occurring.
I'm still watching Shanghai very closely. I'll probably have to pay attention to HK Hang Seng as well.
Faster, please, GOLs...
Monday, July 26, 2010
Who would have thought that S&P would close above 1100 today? I have a faint recollection of some bimbo diva mentioning it a few posts back with very little conviction. Bwahaha to the perma-bears who will all hopefully get faked out. They deserve it after putting us through two years of their rap! As in...
Wake up in the morning feeling OTT
Grab my glasses, I'm out the door, I'm gonna hit The City
Before I leave, brush my teeth with some Listerine
When I leave for the day, the GOLs all make a play
I'm talking trades that curl our toes, toes
Ripping off all their foes, foes
Boys blowing up our phones, phones
Stop-running, playing our 5.01% APY CDs
Pulling up to Tea Parties
Trying to get a little bit tipsy
DJIA blow my speakers up
Tonight, I'm gonna fight
'Til we see the moonlight
+0.77% on the SBA (no thanks to Harry)
+3.2% on the Roth IRA (largely attributable to Sultan BCS who shot up +4.87%)
I have zero trading conviction whatsoever, so if anything untoward happens, I am going to look to sell something. Just what? I am still indecisive, but it'll be something in forex.
I'm also keeping my eyes on gold and oil. Oil will need to follow through with the rally in order for this to be sustainable. I'm also looking for Shanghai to stay above 2500, which it hasn't been able to hold for the longest time. If Shanghai holds and DJIA breaks above 10,700 too, the Real Bwahahas are coming out!
Hopefully, mine will be the loudest!
Friday, July 23, 2010
... in a kingdom far, far away, there lived a little diva with rose-coloured, out-of-season Bulgari glasses. Her trading legs were crossed and her profits were lost on the illusion of a beautiful fairy tale whirlwind trading romance with Prince Harry Winston. On a single day, a -10.08% drop caused more than one button to pop.
Knight KGC decided out-of-the-blue to break Harry's bank by selling its 22.5% interest in HWD, but retaining 7.1 million HWD common shares.
And even the darling Sultan of Liquidity, BCS, couldn't save the poor Damsel of Distressed Debt.
"Be smart with your darts," ForexDiva remarked as she swooned under the moon and could barely belt out a tune.
-5.17% on the SBA
-0.61% on the Roth IRA
ForexDiva decided once and for all to consider restructuring her long term trading strategy. One portfolio for the bears and one portfolio for the bulls, she mulled. One portfolio for the short term and one portfolio for the long haul, she called.
Will this story have a happy ending?
Stay tuned... and have a good weekend, HSFTs!
Thursday, July 22, 2010
At least for today...
+2.42% on the SBA
+4.68% on the Roth IRA
The most interesting and enigmatic gainer in my portfolio today is surprisingly not Harry, but Bulgari - with +9.87%. I have a feeling something is in the works with BULIF. Could it be a potential acquisition target... yet again? Rumours, rumours... Get on with the action already! I'd like an all-cash buyout, please.
Another delectable collectible in my portfolio happens to be BCS with +7.42% and very heavy bidding. Yes, woo us, BCS!
I have / hate to say that the ask volume on a few stocks is very high - especially with C. I'm wondering if I should exit now? But I don't think C is terribly overvalued. C is one of those stocks that I'm a bit excited by yet at the same time afraid of. If the upside materialises, the gain could be very high. However, the selling could get very aggressive at times. I am especially fraidy about the investors who have millions of shares - not thousands of shares. Still, I'm drawn to C in that if it hits $2.50, I'll buy some and if it hits $1 again, I'll buy some more way.
For people who are into alpha, check out FOLGF, but don't quote unquote me on it. No, it's not Folger's! It's Falcon Oil & Gas Ltd. I'm not really into penny stocks any more after having had a bad experience with my LEHMQ play, so I won't accuse anyone of arbitraging me if it goes up. I have now put a top secret crazy sell on LEHMQ. If it hits that level and my order goes through, it's going to be a five figure profit for me. Anyway, FOLGF gained +11.11% today. It's had a few days like this. Could it be a pump and dump? Who knows? And what if the recent sell-off was really a short and distort?
We're getting close to 1100 on S&P and 10,700 on DJIA. If those levels hold, I wonder how much more intense the short squeezing will get?
The bears were wrong on MS and this sent MS up over +20% in just a few days. So, if the same thing happens to BCS, it could get very, very decadent! If I'm wrong, I think the downside is contained and I might even buy more - depending on my mood of course..
I wouldn't mind another few sessions where I can be Queen of Green / Smokin' Vixen / Atomic Kitchen. But after getting hurt this badly, I'm still a bit fraidy to do anything seriously APKS. So, I'll just see how it goes. My eyes are pinned on C and BCS as these are my biggest (and hopefully hottest) positions.
Wednesday, July 21, 2010
Your batting average for equities is just too terrible, Sir! And your beard?
It sent my portfolio tumbling:
-0.58% on the SBA
-0.83% on the Roth IRA
I have yet to find out if moving into BCS by selling MS was good, which I'll finally know on 5 August 2010. However, I was highly enchanted by this guy who turned an old phone into a Porsche. It took him two years and 14 bats to accomplish this home run... so I'm going to give myself another two years in serious, dedicated, unwavering trading for a chance to turn five figures into seven. If I end up turning a Porsche into a Toyota, I'm going to have to definitively draw the line, sit out on the bench, and call my trading a play.
Come on, now! Keep batting! (Er, not you, Bernanke!)
I'm also waiting for the GOL to get in touch with their feminine side just a little bit more before I make my next move. I don't want to be like the Obama Administration on this one. More than one year after Lehman, the financial reform bill finally gets his seal of approval.
The GOL? Cameron's not even three months into his term and they're already "respinning their economy." They've got a vision, haven't they? They looked at their biggest markets and started planning with their razor-sharp bird's eye view, which is exactly what the US needs to start doing.
Fast forward to the spiciest scene already, Obama! Yes, the part where the most seductive two words get uttered: job creation...
So what do socialists do best? Point fingers!
Just what the Republicans and the Democrats do best, apparently!
Tuesday, July 20, 2010
I reckon profit taking is theoretically a bit like... well, you know... You would need to do it everyday in order to get the plaisir. If it were up to me, I'd do it at least once a day, everyday... profit-taking that is.
My portfolio basically took a nap today, but it seems many miners took the high road today. XOM only moved up +0.89% today, but traded in a range of $57.67 to $58.99. If you caught the low and sold the high, that would have yielded you a 2.28% gain - if I did the math correctly. So, I've got a new trading idea... and that is to look for some stocks that trade in a wide daily range and then formulate an accurate strategy to buy the lows and sell the highs.
This, my dear HSFTs, is my new Get Rich Quick the ForexDiva Way Honeygreen Money Making Scheme. Oh, what a dream!
Who needs the DJIA to move up? Who cares if so-and-so is saying this-and-that on CNBC? Who cares if some Gold-digger's profits plunged 82% and still managed to rally +2.22%? Speaking of which... that price differential in GS today represented a 5.77% Gold-diggin' Opportunity. I'm going to see if it happens everyday.
As for moi, it was a mediocre, sleepy, uneventful Hit that Snooze Button Again and Come Back to Bed kind of day worth:
+0.26% on the SBA
+0.56% on the Roth IRA
I need an impetus to trade rather than deliver meaningless sub-CNBC type Wardrobe Malfunction like sultry and spicy commentary.
My most important lesson today was realising not just to look at the % change, but to look at the daily range. And that is no laughing matter.
Monday, July 19, 2010
So I had some therapy recently - not for anger management, but I should probably try that, shouldn't I? I was told that people are often like a bottle of penicillin that others have put a poison label on. And it totally resonated with me. I was told to literally rip off the bandaid - the poison label, rather. So today, I'm ripping off the label of sore loser once and for all. Hopefully, I'm really on my way to being a reformed and better trader after spending all this time in the proverbial confessional booth and studying hundreds of balance sheets and getting no results. I also encourage people to rip off their own labels that other people have put on them.
Friday's market action was not only detrimental to my portfolio recovery, but it also caused a severe dent in my bike and consequently my self-esteem.
I didn't quite redeem myself today, but I think I'm much less volatile than last week:
+1.22% on the SBA
+1.36% on the Roth IRA
Volume on many stocks seems to be much lower than usual due to the summer holiday, so I'm not in panic mode just yet. I am seriously contemplating my next course of action with Harry Winston though. The thing about Harry is that I'm not sure what to categorise Harry as. Harry Winston has both mining and retail operations. One can't compare Harry Winston with Tiffany, Bulgari, or any other jewellery retailer and yet, HWD is also not just a miner. There's also the question of how I should factor in KGC to the equation since, if my information is still up-to-date, KGC owns a stake in HWD. It would therefore make sense for me to take into consideration HWD's valuation in relation to KGC.
There's also something very special about Harry Winston. HWD is the only "at-the-source" type stock in my portfolio. I was surprised to see that many miners have a higher market cap than all of the financial stocks I'd been following, which made me realise just how much I'd been neglecting to look at the bigger picture.
And some perma-bears are even speculating that the real unemployment rate is anywhere from 16.5 to 22%.
With the BP incident, right now would be a good time to look at oil companies more closely. I think most of the oil companies have experienced a sell-off and XOM seems to be at a pretty good valuation. If I had the moola, I'd buy into XOM - especially now that the BP incident seems to be contained - hopefully permanently.
I think it's encouraging that Shanghai rallied today and together with the Wen Jiabao EUR endorsement on Friday, I'm looking at placing some JPY pairs in my market cauldron.
Mirror, mirror on the wall,
Who is the wicked-est diva of all?
On a I don't have a life note, after doing some more subsistence farming, I realised that I'm actually quite good with gardening. I would rather be better at trading, but subsistence farming has its benefits as well. So far, I've been able to harvest two servings of lettuce every week along with two succulent, delectable baby zucchini. The carrots are still too tiny, but I've started some more zucchini plants along with some cantaloupe and pumpkin too. It's possible to get arbitraged in gardening too - what, with the birds and all. My subsistence farming made me question... I'm alive, but am I living?
I'll miss my Jardin Secret when I go on holiday, but hopefully I'll meet men like Fu'ad Aït Aattou! Oh, he can comment allez vous me any day...
Friday, July 16, 2010
For immediate release
16 July 2010 (Trading Ego the Size of Belgium). Five-day Powerball Jackpot Winner ForexDiva's portfolio was admitted to the DJIA Intensive Bear Unit today after experiencing chronic chart failure.
Today's market action had dire consequences for the diva, resulting in:
-2.92% on the SBA
-5.51% on the Roth IRA
"With high hopes and even higher expectations for earnings announcement from CitiFrog to further accelerate my portfolio recovery, I was extremely disappointed. It was all quote unquote luck," sobbed ForexDiva.
"Harry Winston tried to save me with a +1.11% BandAid, but a -8.17% move from BCS and a -6.25% descent on C outweighed Harry's efforts to resuscitate my portfolio," ForexDiva continued.
Ambulatory services rushed in and the portfolio is now still in critical condition.
When asked about MF and any next course of action, a glare accompanied ForexDiva's pointed response: "MF's not even in my portfolio. I got arbitraged! I will wait and see if it hits $4.50, but I regrettably missed out on the 20% move up. BCS earnings announcement on 5 August 2010 will be my next gold-diggin' opportunity."
"The only good news for me today is being able to access CNBC streaming news on my E*Trade platform. Please excuse me now... I need to examine Harry Winston now."
Thursday, July 15, 2010
I'm ticked off for three reasons today. First, some Benjamin Franklin look-alike offended me by telling me I have a strange walk. I glared at him and told him "It's not strange!" What I really should have done was compliment him on his pot belly, antiquidated glasses, receding hairline, and deodorant-less ways.
Then, my portfolio started spewing venom with:
-0.56% on the SBA
-1.22% on the Roth IRA
Finally, the icing on the cake? The GOLs demonstrated just how honourable and upright they were by getting back above 1.54? The Oedipus Complex Ministers of Finance who sold me at 1.54 know who they are and I better not see them in NY or London. I should have paid attention when Boris Schlossberg mentioned GBP/USD might get to 1.55 a few days ago.
So... just how much money do you need to crash a bike-sized account like mine? I reckon even an intern with a bit more than a $10,000 account can do it. On 100:1 leverage, that's a million dollar account. I better not find out whose account it was! That trade made me the market bottom of everyone's chart.
It's a good thing I have a rendezvous with CitiFrog tomorrow. I'm sure C's going to put me in a much better mood.
...on this wardrobe malfunction of an economy?
Obama Enlists Bill Clinton's Aid on Economy
Recall that even Sarah Palin mentioned the importance of job creation during campaigning. Sarah Palin...
Bill Clinton better get this right, or his legacy is basically ruined. We'll then only remember him for the dress and maybe the cigar...
Wednesday, July 14, 2010
Bernanke threw some more cold water at my portfolio, so how's his batting average? It depends on what you were investing in, doesn't it? If you were in Treasuries, then his batting average has been superb. For me, I'd like to tell him: Shut the Failure Up.
My hopes are pinned on BCS, which has reportedly been poaching (ahem... enticing with higher pay, better benefits, perhaps some more stock options?) executives from other banks left and right. That's my kind of company! Since Lehman left an unfathomable void in the US market and bonds have been the place to be throughout the Global Financial Crisis, I'm thinking BCS might have been a VGI (Very Good Investment) for me. I'm paying attention to the levels though. Right now, I closed the day at +9.19% overall on BCS. MF would have been a better and quicker play, but I'm satisfied that I made the jump from MS to BCS - at least for the time being. Bid sizes continue to be much greater than ask sizes on BCS, so I'm not ready to start checking out other stocks just yet. My head says no sex before marriage, but my charts say no marriage before sex.
-1.44% on the SBA
-0.83% on the Roth IRA
In just two days, we're getting earnings results from CitiFrog, Our Glowing Prince.
I read an interesting article from Elliott Wave International today regarding the Quadrillion Dollar Meltdown that they're predicting. I don't think the GOL are ones to shy away from fiscal responsibility and the Japanese will not allow such disorderly deleveraging to occur. Aren't the Japanese prone to intervention or is that more a Swiss thing? The Swiss mean business - at least the SNB does! And the GOL... they are definitely honourable, upright gentlemen.
But suggesting Treasury bonds as the safest investment? I don't buy it. I reckon the US would be the first nation to find a loophole to QU forgive Treasury debt. We'd brand it and patent it too.
If it does happen, which do you reckon would be the best currency pair to short? Gosh... just thinking about that sets my charts on fire!
Tuesday, July 13, 2010
Jesus! I missed out big time on MF... I think it's up over +10% so far over the past few days, which means my QU buying opportunity has gone down the drain.
My new plan:
1.Save up a stash
2.Buy after a crash
3.Capitalise on other people’s woes by turning it to more cash
Brush my pips… stimulate my economy… fill my wallet!
I'm A Honeygreen Money Making Machine Take 2... and this one's a go!
Yes, today's market performance was spectacular / stellar / sensational - even if I do say so myself. I'd say at least two gold-diggin' stars, wouldn't you?
+2.80% on the SBA
+3.56% on the Roth IRA
Yet... I'm still not thinking and definitely not acting like a real trader. Into the Confessional Booth I go and here's where I went wrong:
I had placed four crazy forex orders maybe more than a week back. I didn't get filled on any of these crazy orders and I still failed to dance with the market.
I have known since the earnings announcements back in April that earnings seasons in July could get very spicy and I failed to capitalise on it. If I'd taken profit back then, I would have been sitting pretty with a lot more moola instead of just recovering my account once again. Taking profit then buying back the lows... isn't that such a beautiful proposition?
Even more recently, since earnings season is here, I should have realised the risk currencies were going to be in play. I'm going to remember this lesson for next time.
Here I am with a fabulous trading day and my Roth IRA is still -0.15% overall and my SBA is still down in the double digits. The recovery has been fast, but it could have been faster if I'd played this right.
I've got to stop testing and start trading. Nothing beats real trading experience. It's like... fantasising about it is not the same as actually doing it, is it?
Lately, I've been reading GFT Commentary a lot more and I have to say that Boris Schlossberg actually has some good stuff. So does Kathy Lien! She was one of the first to mention that risk was on again.
Well, it definitely is and I hope it's here to stay!
Too bad they're not my BFF forex broker.
It really got to me, though, when reports started coming in about how the oyster industry will be adversely affected for years to come due to the oil spill. BP not only ruined the entire Gulf Area, but our beloved oysters?
I'm really not defending BP and I hate the fact that there's more environmental damage going on, but why do the Democrats have to go pointing fingers and making this a political play? Is it only because after the Big Bad Wolf Bailout, nothing else has been done by the Obama Administration to create more growth opportunities anywhere? What has Obama done but point fingers at the Republicans for policy failure? And the Big Bad Wolf Bailout... wasn't that more Bush's thing? Not that I'm giving any kudos to Dubbaya either.
In my bimbo opinion, the BP incident could be used by the Obama Administration as a job creation opportunity. Rather than going through criminal proceedings and pointing fingers, BP should be required to go into the confessional booth and repent for their sins by creating a certain amount of high quality jobs for the US economy. Wouldn't that be a win-win situation? We need some more change we can believe in and those two cents were not enough, Obama.
Of course BP has got to continue cleaning up the area. But from a marketing perspective, their brand would require some major Windex as well - if not a complete rebranding exercise and even an outright change of name. Apparently, their shares do not need any such resuscitation. I liked how Shell Oil tried to take advantage of the market void left by BP after the aftermath and came out with a mediocre campaign to try to win some green "new energy" credibility. The execution didn't look too appealing to me. One can't be half pregnant with a strategy like this.
The UK has already implemented fiscal responsibility measures and their Hung Parliament is still fresh in my memory. Fiscal responsibility is just what the US needs.
I should like to look at the GOL a little more seriously later today. I've been trying to get in their car for a while, but there has been no meaningful retracement for literally weeks. What? My prices are not seductive enough to the GOL, which is just an indication that I need to either look at a new pair or... pay up?
Monday, July 12, 2010
...but not today - unfortunately!
-0.76% on the SBA
+0.31% on the Roth IRA
I haven't been able to get filled on any of my four crazy forex positions. It's just as well that my levels haven't been able to please my BFF forex broker lately. Anticipation can be delicious, but tomorrow, I think I'm just going to have to jump in at a market rate. I've been out of the forex market for far too long now and it's Treasure Trunk Time. I think I fancy Franc, who has obviously been working out. So, will it be USD/CHF or EUR/CHF? I'm going to dream about it - possibly all night.
I had a good Friday, bringing my Roth IRA up to only about -4% or so. Still, I can't believe how I let all that moola pass me by. I was at one point up about +14.5% on this account. I'm not going to complain that I didn't bank it during the height of a very passionate + steamy + dreamy market encounter. I've learned the all-important lesson of banking it whilst you can during this recent brush with financial death.
Pulling the trigger is not as easy as it sounds. Take HWD... I hadn't realised it, but Harry Winston has been carrying my portfolio throughout these cold, dark trading days. So, today's dysfunctional performance is hopefully just a minor incident - one to forgive and forget about. But what if it's an intermediate market top and what if I'm missing out on a major opportunity to bank a serious amount of cash? I can't bring myself to end this beautiful, romantic, pleasurable trendship with benefits any time soon - even at +50.11% on the full position. I like looking at my +260% gains on the partial position that I bought almost at the market bottom. I like how Harry surprises me with those high single digit ultra-alpha daily gains. I even like the occasional wardrobe malfunctions because Harry and I - we have a love-hate relationship, don't we. His moves are better than flowers, I'll tell you that much. But seeing that +260% paper gain... that gets me burning... and unfortunately, it feeds my TETSOB.
The only thing left to do now is to force myself to evaluate HWD objectively and rationally. I'm going to do a comprehensive competitive analysis and see if I should bank Harry or keep on riding the waves of passion.
My next course of action now is to save up a sizeable stash, open a new account, and implement my new Honeygreen Moola Making Machine Strategy by banking daily single digit gains. I've had some experience investing in companies I know very little about with attractive, even irresistible, balance sheets. I find that I'm much less emotional about the profit-taking. We both go in knowing it's only going to be a few trading days of guiltless money-making fun. No one gets hurt. That's pure 21st century open relationship type, honest trading plaisir at its finest!
Fill my wallet, please...
Thursday, July 8, 2010
Wow! Yes, right there, Harry. LOL. HWD was +6.07% today - the absolute shining star of my portfolio. I'm so glad I touched his prices at exactly the right levels.
Today, I'm also glad I sold MS for BCS!
The thing I still don't understand is... with BCS' credentials, how can LYG still have a higher market cap than BCS? I just don't get it! Actually, with BCS' credentials, how can C still have a higher market cap than BCS too? Or BAC... or JPM? BCS is highly undervalued according to me and if it starts descending again, I'm going to buy more! BCS will be my new BFF.
At its 52WH, BCS only had a market cap of about $72.41 billion whereas C now has a market cap of $115 billion. LYG, meanwhile, has a market cap of slightly above $58 billion. If BCS starts catching up with LYG in terms of market cap, this means we could easily see BCS above $20 again quite soon.
+3.47% on the SBA
+1.50% on the Roth IRA
Does this mean we're in for a very hot summer? I think I'm feeling quite steamy already. Aren't you?
Something else I'm thinking of cooking up... MF. For real! I've been watching MF for a while and if it falls below $4.80, I'm in with a few hundred shares. With a book value of $9.25 and Price/Sales and Price/Book both well below 1, this position could be nice. However, I'm going to do some serious homework before I make a definitive move. I may just end up trading my usual Knights In Shining Armour - either C, HWD, or BCS.
I don't know yet, but I do know I missed out big time on RTP and BHP. It'll probably be ages before we see those beautiful undervalued levels again.
But the key to my financial future was staring me right in the face and I failed to realise the power of a small five figure account like mine. With just minor two or three percent daily moves, this could be the beginning of some serious cash. I need to start asking myself the best way to bank these moves on a daily basis. And not only that - I need to start banking already.
One can easily survive on a 2% daily move, isn't that true?
Laugh all you want, but I did the math:
$10,000 account (just as an example)
2% move = $200
Do that daily for 25 trading days straight and you've just banked $5000 or 50% ROI...
For those that like scale, this could easily be five figures additional income per month if you either get a 4% daily move or increase your original investment.
If that's not beautiful, I don't know what is. Perhaps it's more like a get-rich-quick sort of trading mentality, but... oh, it'll be so delectable when I finally make it!
Now, it's still one of my trading fantasies, but if I'm going to be six figures this year, I better stop blogging and start trading.
Wednesday, July 7, 2010
+3.54% on the SBA
+4.34% on the Roth IRA
Now this is what portfolio recovery is all about. DJIA, you can do that to me again any day!
My darlingest frog, BCS, was up +9.7% today and closed the day on the high. BCS was thisclose to making it on TheStreet.com's Winners & Losers today, but STT beat it by a fraction with a 9.87% gain. Darn! I thought that was quite a heroic performance already, but HERO (not in my portfolio) closed the day at +11.84% and BMJ (also not in my portfolio) closed the day up +33.64%. The grass is always greener, isn't it? I like observing what the rest of the market is up to as it keeps me on my toes somewhat.
If the GOLs are this hot on the trading floor, it really makes you wonder how hot they are elsewhere... such as in the Bentley... on Bond Street... on a British Airways flight?
I am still awaiting the time when I can bank gains like this every day.
If this was just QU luck, I'll take QU luck every once in a while... but that isn't the point of trading, is it? We are in search of a scientific way to bank high single digit or even double digit percentage gains on a frequent basis. The traders who can do double digit percentage gains on a daily basis won't be confiding how they do it, but I've got a secret desire to be like them one day!
Hush... our secret, darling HSFTs!
I hate this [Ministry of Finance + Bona Fide Oedipus Complex] GBP/USD Weekly Chart! I hate it. And I hate how I got the market bottom. OK, I'm done spewing venom...
Notice the corresponding RSI resistance. If it breaks above that RSI resistance, the GOL will most likely be majorly alpha again. I'm thinking we could get to 1.65 soon. I wonder if it'll be fast and furious.
My plan is to buy on a retracement as usual, but it's so hard not to want to jump on them already. I'm going to put myself out there and place a buy around 1.45 - or possibly higher. Only my BFF forex broker will know my secret levels. I'm sure I'll have to pay up though. The GOL are getting ready for their annual multi-week summer holiday. So, they'll want their GBP to be as alpha as they are, wouldn't they?
I shall straddle them and see what they do at 1.54. If they're alpha there, my trading legs will have to be fast and furious too!
Tuesday, July 6, 2010
Everyone's favourite diva, aka the Sweetest Chart to Happen to the Forex Market, is back! Did you miss me? I'm sure you did, especially since my portfolio is on again! (I hope no one's eating anything whilst reading this. One can easily require the Heimlich Maneuver as a result. LOL.)
+1.10% on the SBA
+0.47% on the Roth IRA
On Friday, it was:
+0.85% on the SBA
+0.31% on the Roth IRA
I'm still in dire need of portfolio recovery, but isn't NYC so lucky! HRH Queen Elizabeth II is visiting NY! I wish I could curtsy to the Queen... I absolutely love her. Why doesn't she ever visit Belgium?
Anyway, I took a few days off to not think about trading. I came across a quote by Andrew Carnegie in the interim: "No man becomes rich unless he enriches others." At first, I thought... that's so true. But then, I thought... well, what about women then? So, for women, it's more like: "No woman becomes rich until she becomes a bitch." - ForexDiva
Think about that and tell me it's not true. A woman is only ever called a bitch when she dares to ask for what she wants / believes in. Cave in for too long and you end up with nothing. So, no more Little Miss Virtuous Goody Two Shoes ForexDiva. I'm going to trade a lot more now and start proactively thinking about how to run some stops again. I was at a point in my trading where I was about to proclaim: Please, take me off life support. Only, I wasn't on life support, of course. So, I had to continue going, financially vulnerable as I was.
And so, instead of doing my usual three ridiculous forex entries at crazy prices, I added a fourth. Now it's EUR/CHF, EUR/JPY, GBP/USD, and GBP/JPY on a daily basis. I'm still waiting to get filled.
If I find that I'm still too conservative, I'm going to have to just do some trading at market prices.
My trading has gotten stale and I've got to turn the heat on once again - perhaps make some French toast.
I shall start every trading day by thinking: how can I make money? How can I please my forex broker today?
I think I've got some new ideas...
Thursday, July 1, 2010
I'm so ticked off!
Finally, I got into another GBP/JPY long at 132.18 last night. The trade was about +25 pips before I decided I needed to get to bed. I left it open and set a limit at 133.03. My Lunchtime Fun session today was no fun. My trade got to about -60 pips... and at times, even worse. But I held on because this is GBP/JPY. A 60 pip move is nothing.
Anyway, when I got home, I noticed I was suddenly in profit again - nothing major. About 15 pips and I experienced some slippage, so only got 11 pips. It looked like it was going to retrace and the GOL, who I now hate forever, were out celebrating their GBP/USD resurgence at the pub already. I hate them with all my chart! Every chart from the 15 minute intervals all the way through to the Weekly. This is a divorce waiting to happen! We've been in an on-again, off-again pipless marriage since the beginning of March and my account's the only one getting burned here. LOL.
I'm ready for more lots! I think I really am!
So if you want to know in 3:09 what forex trading is all about, this video on making baba ganoush about sums it up.
Sorry, but isn't it? Chop, chop, chop! LOL.
In case anyone didn't realise, tomorrow's Non-Farm Pay Day! And I, for one, want to get paid! In order to have a winning attitude, we all have to be thinking: if my forex broker's happy, I'm happy. Yes, as Allotta from China might say, the forex broker always comes first.
Seriously. You'll start enjoying prices from a different angle.