Monday, September 30, 2013

I Can Hear Gordon Ramsay Screaming: 'Shut It Down!' In the Background...


Chef, October's going to be a big month - and I mean yooooouuuuujjjjjjj!  

In addition to the mess on Capitol Hill, I'm expecting some distributions from my Lehman bonds to hit the bank account on 3 October 2013...  I had a dream recently that my accounts skyrocketed due to my Lehman bond payouts.  

Plus, Earnings Season will kick off on 8 October 2013 with AA and I've already got some AA straddles going on.  

I left a lot of money on the table for the Market Makers with FB's ride up.  I played all the levels from $45 through to $51.  It seems to be hitting against a brick wall at the $51 level and if a steeper decline is in store, I've still got $47, $49, and $51 strike puts.  The best case scenario for me is if a breakdown hits just as the Conviction Bulls have been piling in.  This would put my $49s and $51s in play - full throttle.

Come on, Market Buddies... step in and bail me out!  Especially Dear Carl Icahn!

-4.57% SBA
-1.52% Roth IRA

-0.84% DJIA
-0.27% Nasdaq
-0.60% S&P 

-0.77% FTSE
-0.59% Eurofirst
-2.06% Nikkei
+0.68% Shanghai
-1.76% SENSEX
-1.50% Hang Seng

-0.54% WTI
-0.29% Brent
-0.50% Gold
-0.21% Copper
-2.75% Corn

+0.32% GBP/USD
+0.32% EUR/GBP

1.10 Put / Call Ratio

-0.23% DJT
+7.63% VIX

-0.57% 5-Year US Treasury Notes
-0.15% 10-Year US Treasury Notes

37% Advancing Issues on NYSE                       |   30% Up Volume
60% Declining Issues on NYSE                        |   68% Down Volume
3% Unchanged                                             |   2% Unchanged
84 New Highs   |   38 New Lows

44% Advancing Issues on Nasdaq                    |   37% Up Volume
54% Declining Issues on Nasdaq                     |   62% Down Volume
2% Unchanged                                             |   1% Unchanged
130 New Highs   |   25 New Lows


Today's Major Headlines

Washington Shutdown Looms As Deal Hopes Fade

S&P To Hold Fire On US Credit Downgrade - For Now




Out of VIX Oct 16 '13 $14 Calls Executed @ $2.10...


$0.04 haircut...


Into TLT Oct 25 '13 $106.50 Calls $1.44 + Into TLT Oct 25 '13 $106.50 Puts @ $1.79 = $3.23...


Debt ceiling debate could cause more volatility on the TLTs...

Last time, when Bernanke was centre stage, I didn't play the TLT, but it was the one that moved a few handles whilst the VIX stayed more or less unchanged...

Don't want to miss this one!




From CNBC To C-SPAN...


C-SPAN...


I Can't Believe People Are Still Buying the Dips!


Hmmmmpppppppphhhhhhh...


Into SPY Oct 04 '13 $168 Calls @ $1.39 + Into SPY Oct 04 '13 $168 Puts @ $1.19 = $2.58...

Into FB Oct 04 '13 $51 Calls @ $1.21 + Into FB Oct 04 '13 $51 Puts @ $1.07 = $2.28...

Out of FB Oct 04 '13 $49 Calls @ $2.44...


Original straddle = $2.71...

Expecting this thing to retrace as the calls are getting sold, so will get into the $51 strike straddles...

$1.11 per share gain on this leg, or 83.45% gross gain...

If puts expire, then loss will be $0.27, or 9.96% haircut...



Out of SPY Sep 30 '13 $170 Puts @ $2.01...


Oooh, did this thing retrace!

$2.75 was the high...

I got out by a hair with $0.34 per share, or 20.35% gross...


Friday, September 27, 2013

Bulls Make Money, Bears Make Money, But Fraidy Cats Get Slaughtered...


Trying to put in a 'Do Not Exercise' on those FB $50.50 calls... didn't close them out on time and E*Trade said they would 'Do Not Exercise' on a 'best effort' basis.  

No more of these last minute.com style trades.  I know they don't work out and I still do them anyway.  Am I subconsciously into financial S&M?  

Market Makers, stop spanking me!  I would rather be doing the financial kama sutra...

That FB last minute straddle was clearly not a good idea, but maybe the bulls will get so crazy that I'll end up making money on this if the 'Do Not Exercise' falls through...  if...


-8.77% SBA 
-0.04% Roth IRA

-0.46% DJIA
-0.15% Nasdaq
-0.41% S&P

-0.81% FTSE
-0.23% Eurofirst
-0.26% Nikkei
+0.20% Shanghai
-0.84% SENSEX
+0.35% Hang Seng

-0.27% WTI
-0.73% Brent
+0.94% Gold
+0.36% Copper
-0.77% Corn

+0.65% GBP/USD
-0.78% USD/JPY
-0.52% EUR/JPY
+0.40% EUR/GBP

0.94 Put / Call Ratio

-0.60% DJT
+9.96% VIX

-2.36% 5-Year US Treasury Notes
-0.91% 10-Year US Treasury Notes

32% Advancing Issues on NYSE                                |   28% Up Volume
64% Declining Issues on NYSE                                 |   70% Down Volume
4% Unchanged                                                      |   2% Unchanged
74 New Highs   |   27 New Lows


36% Advancing Issues on Nasdaq                              |   44% Up Volume
59% Declining Issues on Nasdaq                               |   54% Down Volume
5% Unchanged                                                       |   2% Unchanged
106 New Highs   |   18 New Lows


Today's Major Headlines

US Senate Approves Short Term Budget




Into GS Oct 19 '13 $150 Puts @ $0.96...


Earnings announcement on 17 October 2013...

If there's a sell-off before then for whatever reason, this could go deeply, deeply in the money and I'm not risking too much...


Into JCP Oct 11 '13 $9.50 Calls @ $0.63 + Into JCP Oct 11 '13 $9.50 Puts @ $0.66 = $1.29...



FB Straddles Getting Way Too Expensive...


I might look at some unilateral plays from now on... or just focus on AAPL!


Thursday, September 26, 2013

Yoo Hoo, Moo Moo...


I threw away a few winning lottery tickets the past week or two: 

AAPL calls on Friday right before the big move up on Monday (tonnes of Twitter chatter yesterday about a guy whose AAPL shares would have been worth over $50 billion, but he sold them back in the day for $800, so I feel for him...)

FB $45 and $47 calls


Next time, I'm going to pile in on every break of a new level, but I'll hold onto the winning positions until I see some call selling or put buying.  But on AAPL, I can only afford to be unilateral for now.  The puts are way too expensive.

This $170 level on the SPY is also no fun, but I'm watching GRPN because it could be the next FB if it gains some momo.

Tonnes of Central Bankers speaking tomorrow:

Draghi
Evans
Rosengren
Dudley


-3.61% SBA
-1.15% Roth IRA

+0.36% DJIA
+0.70% Nasdaq
+0.35% S&P 

+0.21% FTSE
+0.05% Eurofirst
+1.22% Nikkei
-1.94% Shanghai
+0.19% SENSEX
-0.36% Hang Seng

+0.25% WTI
+0.80% Brent
+0.18% Gold
+0.81% Copper
+0.49% Corn

-0.33% EUR/USD
+0.50% USD/JPY

0.70 Put to Call Ratio

+0.40% DJT
+0.36% VIX

+3.55% 5-Year US Treasury Notes
+1.11% 10-Year US Treasury Notes

60% Advancing Issues on NYSE                      |   56% Up Volume
36% Declining Issues on NYSE                       |   41% Down Volume
4% Unchanged                                            |   3% Unchanged
118 New Highs   |   25 New Lows

57% Advancing Issues on Nasdaq                   |   64% Up Volume
39% Declining Issues on Nasdaq                    |   35% Down Volume
4% Unchanged                                            |   1% Unchanged
142 New Highs   |   17 New Lows


Today's Major Headlines

Shanghai Gambles On New Free Trade Zone




If FB goes to $51, I'll Pile In Again...


I let go of my $45 and $47 calls way too soon!


Out of GRPN Sep 27 '13 $12.50 Puts @ $0.51...


$0.10 haircut, or 16.39% gross on this leg...

It looks like GRPN may see some upside and I'm worried if it gets to $12.50, my puts will get sold...




Into AAPL Oct 04 '13 $505 Calls @ $1.69...


Dear Carl Icahn,

Please tweet about it...  please tweet about it before 4 October 2013...

Love,

ForexDiva


Into AAPL Oct 11 '13 $510 Calls @ $2.62...


Sue Herrera on CNBC just said Carl Icahn and Tim Cook are doing lunch next week?



Into FB Sep 27 '13 $50.50 Calls @ $0.50 + Into FB Sep 27 '13 $50.50 Puts @ $0.49 = $0.99


The past two to three weeks, I got freaked out of a few FB straddles that would have ended up making money, so I'm trying this last minute straddle to see if I can capture some more gains...

My 4 October 2013 $49 FB straddles are just about breakeven...

So if this thing gets really directional today or tomorrow, this will boost the upside...



Wednesday, September 25, 2013

Dear Carl Icahn... When Will You Tweet About Dinner With Tim Cook?


My feet still hurt from walking around Fifth Avenue for my meetings yesterday.  I ended up meeting 4 companies.  3 of them are interested in the project I was pitching, but I decided I only want to work with 2 of them.  I need 4 other companies to get involved and will be meeting two other companies next week and calling a few others this week.  Let's see if a 'telephonic conversation' - in 9FM's words - can be as effective as an actual meeting.  

In the interim, my AAPL calls are getting 'cooked.'  The worst part is that I had a chance to take profits the day before, but I decided I wouldn't get faked out this time and continued to ride a trade that has lost its momo.   

I'll continue watching AAPL though.  I want to pick up some more calls right before Earnings Announcement and if I can get into a straddle, I will.  Otherwise, I'm staying unilateral.  I'll negotiate with Iran, but won't talk to Congress...

One day, people will be saying: 'Don't fight Carl Icahn!'


+1.02% SBA
-2.80% Roth IRA

-0.40% DJIA
-0.19% Nasdaq
-0.27% S&P

-0.30% FTSE
-0.10% Eurofirst
-0.76% Nikkei
-0.41% Shanghai
-0.32% SENSEX
+0.13% Hang Seng

-0.86% WTI
-0.63% Brent
+1.45% Gold
+0.26% Copper
+1.17% Corn

+0.40% EUR/USD
+0.52% GBP/USD

-0.66% DJT
-0.50% VIX

0.96 Put / Call Ratio

-2.61% 5-Year US Treasury Notes
-1.47% 10-Year US Treasury Notes

48% Advancing Issues on NYSE                     |   49% Up Volume
49% Declining Issues on NYSE                      |   49% Down Volume
3% Unchanged                                           |   2% Unchanged

45% Advancing Issues on Nasdaq                  |   58% Up Volume
50% Declining Issues on Nasdaq                   |   40% Down Volume
5% Unchanged                                           |   2% Unchanged



Today's Major Headlines

Barclays To Retreat From 100 Wealth Markets

US Could Run Out of Funds By October 17

Alibaba Abandons $60 Billion Hong Kong Listing

Skyscraper Index?



ASNA +16.22% So Far...


And my calls didn't even move so much...

Hmmmmppppphhhhhh...



Out of BBRY Oct 04 '13 $9 Puts @ $0.86... Original Straddle = $0.76...


$0.10 gross, or 13.15%...

Not sure about this $8 level... it looks bullish, but can't be sure, so I'll try another straddle - maybe...



Into ASNA Oct 19 '13 $20 Calls @ $0.59 + Into ASNA Oct 19 '13 $20 Puts @ $0.60 = $1.19...

Out of ASNA Oct 19 '13 $17 Calls @ $2.94... Original Straddle = $2.55...


$0.39 per share gain, or 15.29% gross...


Tuesday, September 24, 2013

Into FB Oct 04 '13 $49 Calls @ $1.33 + Into FB Oct 04 '13 $49 Puts @ $1.35 = $2.68...

Out of FB Oct 04 '13 $47 Calls @ $2.32... Original Straddle = $2.58...


$1.15 per share gain on this leg, or +98.29% gross...

Will buy more straddles at this level as puts are not being as aggressively sold, so bullishness may be contained, but in case of upside, will ride it up to the next level...



Will An AAPL A Day Send ForexDiva To Bombay?


I had a meeting on Park Avenue in the afternoon, so I had to run out in the middle of the trading day, then strolled around my neighbourhood retailers.  

When I got back, I saw that my BBRY calls had been sold down mercilessly by the Market Makers.  

Thank Heavens I was able to take profits on my AAPL calls and that I had any left at all.  I was so freaked out on Friday after some issues got sold.  If I hadn't gotten out of those, one issue would have at least doubled and another issue would have been over a +200% profit.  I had some in both the SBA and the Roth IRA. 

Mind you, these aren't even in the money calls.  In monetary terms, the upside is much more delicioso than other calls due to the higher price levels of AAPL.  So we're talking about $2 to $6 gains per share - plain caliente.  I'm grateful I was at least able to bank one and may there be many more!   I decided to buy some more out of the money calls in case there's some bullish momentum continuation on AAPL.  It's about time!

Dear Carl Icahn, thank you for taking me along for the ride!  I'll be there to buy some more AAPL dips and pray that you'll be tweeting about your dinner plans with Tim Cook soon...  

I can't wait for tomorrow's KBH and ASNA earnings announcements, though I have 3 meetings scheduled tomorrow, so it'll be pretty crazy.  

What's even crazier?  I managed to end the day extremely in the red and yet my equity still went up, up and away thanks to those beautiful, beautiful AAPLs!

-7.13% SBA (BBRY straddles here)
-0.42% Roth IRA

-0.32% DJIA
-0.25% Nasdaq
-0.47% S&P

-0.59% FTSE
-0.51% Eurofirst
-0.16% Nikkei
+1.33% Shanghai
-1.79% SENSEX
-0.56% Hang Seng

-0.16% WTI
-1.12% Brent

-0.61% DJT
+9.07% VIX


41% Advancing Issues on NYSE                   |   34% Up Volume
56% Declining Issues on NYSE                    |   65% Down Volume
3% Unchanged                                         |   1% Unchanged
77 New Highs   |   34 New Lows

42% Advancing Issues on Nasdaq                |   32% Up Volume
55% Declining Issues on Nasdaq                 |   67% Down Volume
3% Unchanged                                         |   1% Unchanged
135 New Highs   |   27 New Lows


Today's Major Headlines

BBRY Agrees To Sale In $4.7 Billion Cash Deal To Canadian Investment Consortium 

JPMorgan Faces US Charges Regarding MBS

Chrysler IPO In the Works



Monday, September 23, 2013

Into BBRY Oct 04 '13 $9 Calls @ $0.44 + Into BBRY Oct 04 '13 $9 Puts @ $0.32 = $0.76

Into ASNA Oct 19 '13 $17 Calls @ $1.32 + Into ASNA Oct 19 '13 $17 Puts @ $0.615


2 puts for every 1 call...



Earnings announcement after market hours on 24 September 2013...

0.21 estimates vs. 0.31 year ago...



Into AAPL Oct 04 '13 $510 Calls @ $2.55...

Into FB Oct 04 '13 $47 Calls @ $1.17 + Into FB Oct 04 '13 $47 Puts @ 1.41 = $2.58...

Out of FB Sep 27 '13 $45 Calls @ $1.91...


$0.71 per share gain, or +59.66% on this leg...

Full strangle = $2.27...

Will leave $45.50 puts on the back burner and get into current level straddle or strangle...


Into KBH Oct 19 '13 $17 Calls @ $1.06 + KBH Oct 19 '13 $17 Puts @ $1.07 = $2.13...

Out of KBH Oct 19 '13 $19 Puts @ $2.47...


$1.02 per share gain, or 70.3% gross profits on this leg...

Full straddle @ $2.45...

Will get into current level straddle and leave the $19 calls on the back burner...



Into SPY Oct 11 '13 $170 Calls @ $1.90 + Into SPY Oct 11 '13 $170 Puts @ $1.92 = $3.82...

Out of SPY Sep 30 '13 $172 Puts @ $2.22...


$0.66 per share gain, or +42.30% gross...


It's Real: Out of AAPL Sep 27 '13 $490 Calls @ $9.00...


$6.66 per share gain, or 284% gross gains...

Wishing I hadn't gotten faked out on Friday, but I'm really happy about this one!!



Friday, September 20, 2013

Big Apple...


I got chopped up by AAPL, but overall:

+3.39% SBA
+0.11% Roth IRA

-1.19% DJIA
-0.39% Nasdaq
-0.72% S&P 

-0.44% FTSE
-0.26% Eurofirst
-0.16% Nikkei
+0.29% Shanghai
-1.85% SENSEX
+1.67% Hang Seng

-1.59% WTI
+0.40% Brent
-2.83% Gold
-1.06% Copper
-1.96% Corn

-0.52% DJT
-0.30% VIX

1.05 Put / Call Ratio

-0.34% 5-Year US Treasury Notes
-0.58% 10-Year US Treasury Notes

27% Advancing Issues on NYSE                         
71% Declining Issues on NYSE
2% Unchanged

45% Advancing Issues on Nasdaq
52% Declining Issues on Nasdaq
3% Unchanged


Today's Major Headlines

Blackberry Warns of Near -$1 Billion Loss

Bullard: Decision Not To Taper Was Borderline



Dear Carl Icahn, Are You The One Selling My AAPL Calls?


I'm going to become an AAPL Buy the Dipper!


Out of AAPL Oct 25 '13 $545 Calls @ $2.07...


Haircut of $0.53 per share, or 20.38%...


Out of AAPL Oct 19 '13 $520 Calls @ $2.04...


Haircut of $0.39 or 16%...


Into AAPL Oct 19 '13 $520 Calls @ $2.43...


In case AAPL skyrockets right before earnings announcement...


Into AAPL Oct 25 '13 $545 Calls @ $2.60...


AAPL earnings announcement on 22 October 2013...



AAPL Up +1.51% In Pre-Market Trading... Will We See A +4-5% Move Today, Dear Carl Icahn?

Thursday, September 19, 2013

Do You Vacay In Bombay?


Overnight, the Maharajas helped spike the Kool-Aid with an intoxicating +3.43% push higher on the SENSEX - a smokin' move that will surely go down in financial kama sutra history as pretty epic.  There was very little followthrough on the EPI though, which ended the day slightly in the red much like the SPY and the DIA.

All day, things were looking good for my Roth IRA, but then it appeared the Naked Call Sellers started coming in to take a bite out of my SPY calls.  

I will most likely look back on this week and lament the fact that I sold my KR calls, CIEN calls, and even FB calls way too early!  

A lesson from the financial kama sutra: I've got to control myself for lasting financial plaisir because it's clear you can't vacay in Bombay with the SBA and Roth IRA by letting your losses run and taking profits prematurely!

-4.61% SBA
-1.03% Roth IRA

-0.26% DJIA
+0.15% Nasdaq
-0.18% S&P 

+1.01% FTSE
+0.60% Eurofirst
+1.80% Nikkei
+0.29% Shanghai
+3.43% SENSEX
+1.67% Hang Seng

-1.69% WTI
-1.70% Brent
+4.64% Gold
+1.92% Copper
+0.82% Corn

-0.71% GBP/USD
+1.57% USD/JPY
+1.59% EUR/JPY
-0.75% EUR/GBP

0.76 Put / Call Ratio

+0.31% DJT
-3.16% VIX

+2.99% 5-Year US Treasury Notes
+1.48% 10-Year US Treasury Notes

40% Advancing Issues on NYSE                        |   37% Up Volume
57% Declining Issues on NYSE                         |   62% Down Volume
3% Unchanged                                              |   1% Unchanged
341 New Highs   |   13 New Lows

43% Advancing Issues on Nasdaq                     |   56% Up Volume
52% Declining Issues on Nasdaq                      |   43% Down Volume
5% Unchanged                                              |   1% Unchanged
240 New Highs   |   21 New Lows


Today's Major Headlines

JPMorgan Hit By $920 Million Whale of A Fine




Carl Icahn On CNBC: Market Very Overvalued, But AAPL Very Undervalued...


Not Twitter, but CNBC could also work!

Let's see if there's followthrough tomorrow...


Into More AAPL Sep 21 '13 $490 Calls @ $0.21... Average Price = $0.8633


Who knows?  Maybe Carl Icahn will tweet about the meeting he's supposed to have with Tim Cook or something?  

I doubled up very modestly in case a catalyst starts driving upwards momentum on AAPL...

Into KBH Oct 19 '13 $19 Calls @ $1.00 + Into KBH Oct 19 '13 $19 Puts @ $1.45 = $2.45...


Earnings announcement on 24 September 2013...

Case Shiller + FHFA Housing Prices on same day...

Analysts are expecting a huge increase in EPS, but the company has been operating at a loss.  Either way, there will be volatility - and hopefully a lot of it.

Looked into LEN too, but KBH options were much less expensive and KBH has a higher beta...

A move up to $21.45 or a move down to $16.55 would put me in the money...




Out of FB Sep 21 '13 $44 Calls @ $1.51...


Original straddle = $2.57

Haircut of $1.06 per share, or 41.24%...

Not happy about this one, but now I see where I miscalculated the entry...

This straddle would have required a move above $47 or a move below $41 for me to make money...


Into FB Sep 27 '13 $45 Calls @ $1.20 + Into FB Sep 27 '13 $45.50 Puts @ $1.07 = 2.27...

Into GRPN Sep 27 '13 $12 Calls @ $0.56 + Into GRPN Sep 27 '13 $12.50 Puts @ $0.61 = $1.17...

Out of GRPN Sep 21 '13 $12 Calls @ $0.32...


Good stuff!


Gotta do the calculations, but this was one of my remaining duds from a successful straddle.  I had taken profits on the puts and thought that I might be able to get out of these calls on the way back up...


This means I end up profitable on the full straddle!



P.S. $1.10 exit on full straddle = +$0.27 per share, or +32.53%...




Into EPI Oct 19 '13 $16 Calls @ $0.93 + Into EPI Oct 19 '13 $17 Puts @ $0.92 = $1.85...

Out of EPI Sep 21 '13 $16 Calls @ $0.50...


Breakeven on straddle...

Getting into a straddle further out...


Wednesday, September 18, 2013

9FMmmmmmmmm... Bring Your Copy of the Financial Kama Sutra...


While all eyes were on Bernanke, 9FM's hometown quietly rocked the financial world as the EPI pushed up 5% to end the day above $16.  Faster, Maharajas!  Faster!  


I was as fraidy as Bernanke and ultimately ended up not pushing the button on the TLT straddle.  It was just as well because option prices seem little changed on the issues I was looking at.


I'm still waiting for the VIX to move in wild gyrations.  The day following Bernanke's previous stint, the VIX turned decidedly directional.  Will there be a sense of deja vu tomorrow?


For the first time in a while, I actually liked the bulls as I was able to take profits on my SPY calls and then get into another straddle whilst still holding puts.  The upside on the calls is limited, but my ultimate goal is to have the puts in my portfolio anyway.  


There will be one of those days where they could all get hit on the back of an unexpected pullback that nobody saw coming.  And in the meantime, I can have some fun riding the Conviction Bulls.  Do they have some new financial kama sutra moves to show us?  


The next big thing, according to Larry Kudlow on CNBC last night, could be Obama's appointment of the next Fed Chair on Monday, 23 September 2013...



-3.11% SBA (most VIX positions here)

-0.15% Roth IRA

+0.95% DJIA

+1.01% Nasdaq
+1.22% S&P 

-0.17% FTSE

+0.46% Eurofirst
+1.35% Nikkei
+0.29% Shanghai
-0.27% Hang Seng

+2.49% WTI

+2.18% Brent
+2.41% Gold
+2.87% Copper
+0.44% Corn

+1.17% EUR/USD

+1.39% GBP/USD
-1.12% USD/JPY

+1.54% DJT
-6.47% VIX

-10.81% 5-Year US Treasury Notes
-5.08% 10-Year US Treasury Notes


84% Advancing Issues on NYSE                     

15% Declining Issues on NYSE
1% Unchanged


61% Advancing Issues on Nasdaq

35% Declining Issues on Nasdaq
4% Unchanged


Major Headlines Today


Investors Drive S&P To Record Levels As Fed Continues QE Forever - For Now


Google Launches Healthcare Company


Top Republicans Harden Line In Budget Showdown



Into SPY Sep 30 '13 $172 Calls @ $1.34 + Into SPY Sep 30 '13 $172 Puts @ $1.56 = $2.90...

Out of SPY Sep 30 '13 $171 Calls @ $1.69...


$0.60 per share gain, or +55.04%...

A lot of slippage...


Tuesday, September 17, 2013

Kick the Can Down the Road? Or Rip Off the Band Aid? That Is the Question...


I'm still thinking of doing a TLT straddle, but just haven't pulled the trigger yet.  Besides, the 5-Year Treasury Notes seem to be moving a lot more.  So I'll see if there are any options on pertinent ETFs that I can straddle.

Will the market be singing 'Hit the Road, Jack!' to Bernanke tomorrow?

I'm paying more and more attention to the Advance / Decline Line to see if previous support could become resistance.  

Change in game plan: straddle the SPY and sell calls when I think the Naked Call Sellers are coming in, then keep my puts in case the reversal finally happens.


-0.87% SBA
-1.23% Roth IRA

+0.23% DJIA
+0.75% Nasdaq
+0.42% S&P 

-0.80% FTSE
-0.46% Eurofirst
-0.65% Nikkei
-2.05% Shanghai
+0.31% SENSEX
-0.31% Hang Seng

-1.01% WTI
-2.08% Brent
-0.58% Gold
-0.02% Copper
-0.55% Corn

+0.24% EUR/JPY

0.77 Put / Call Ratio

+0.11% DJT
+1.04% VIX

-1.53% 5-Year US Treasury Yield
-0.73% 10-Year US Treasury Notes


64% Advancing Issues on NYSE                              |   70% Up Volume
33% Declining Issues on NYSE                               |   28% Down Volume
3% Unchanged                                                    |   2% Unchanged
166 New Highs   |   34 New Lows


64% Advancing Issues on Nasdaq                            |   76% Up Volume
32% Declining Issues on Nasdaq                             |   22% Down Volume
4% Unchanged                                                     |   2% Unchanged
137 New Highs   |   18 New Lows


Today's Major Headlines

SEC Charges 23 Firms In Short-Sale Crackdown, 22 Settle

Millennials Changing the Rules of Investing



Out of GRPN Sep 21 '13 $12 Puts @ $0.78... Original Stradde @ $0.83...


Expecting the $12 calls to start making money over the next few days...

Still have $12 calls and $11 puts...

$0.38 per share gain, or +95% gross profits on this lot...

If $12 calls expire worthless, then this would be $0.05 per share haircut, or 12.5%...



Monday, September 16, 2013

Larry Summers Early Withdrawal Fires Up the Bulls


I threw in the financial towel on Friday and had two back to back meetings at the Soho Nespresso last week, so couldn't blah.  Little did I know people were knifing me in the back as my calls and puts got simultaneously sold.  

When in doubt, sell calls.  When things seem bullish, sell puts.  That's been the money making strategy all year and I still don't get it.  

The financial mayhem continued today and twice, I stepped up to, then stepped back from, a TLT $103 straddle.  I might step up to the plate on Wednesday.

I was also going to add some VXX $14.50 straddles too, but decided not to do any more positions for the Naked Call Sellers and the Naked Put Sellers are hanging me out to dry.  I'm banking on my VIX calls going deeply, deeply into the money after Bernanke's Final Act, but anything can happen.  

My most painful positions include AAPL calls and PANW strangles and boy do I regret them.  Next time, I'm not getting into any more straddles or strangles that cost me more than $3.  I actually kind of prefer the ones that cost less than $2.

My FB straddles are just starting to see some directionality, but do I hold onto them and hope that they'll go into the money just like the ones before or do I get out with about a 50% loss for fear that the puts will get sold for whatever reason?  

A string of losses has got me down, but somehow, I'm more determined than ever to forge ahead.

Good Lord!

-3.06% SBA
-3.17% Roth IRA

+0.77% DJIA
-0.12% Nasdaq
+0.57% S&P 

+0.59% FTSE
+0.65% Eurofirst
+0.12% Nikkei
-0.22% Shanghai
+0.05% SENSEX
+1.47% Hang Seng

-1.90% WTI
-1.87% Brent
+0.28% Gold
+0.56% Copper
-0.44% Corn

+0.32% EUR/USD

+1.13% DJT
+1.55% VIX

0.90 Put / Call Ratio

-4.11% 5-Year US Treasury Notes
-0.83% 10-Year US Treasury Notes


67% Advancing Issues on NYSE                    |   64% Up Volume
31% Declining Issues on NYSE                     |   34% Down Volume
2% Unchanged                                          |   2% Unchanged
244 New Highs   |   32 New Lows

52% Advancing Issues on Nasdaq                 |   52% Up Volume
43% Declining Issues on Nasdaq                  |   45% Down Volume
5% Unchanged                                          |   3% Unchanged
202 New Highs   |   17 New Lows


Today's Major Headlines

At Least 13 Killed In Washington Navy Yard Shooting

Sales of 3.3 Billion GBP Lloyds Shares Seen As Vote of Confidence In UK Economy



CNBC: Options Trading Hitch Again!

Out of SD Jan 18 '14 $7 Calls @ $0.27...


$0.06 per share gain, or 28.57% gross...

This thing has not moved much and I've been in it forever...

Will look into a straddle right before earnings announcement in November...


HSFTs, I Can't Wait For Earnings Season To Kick Off!

Into AMD Oct 19 '13 $4 Calls @ $0.24 + Into AMD Oct 19 '13 $4 Puts @ $0.36 = $0.60...


Earnings announcement on 17 October 2013...



Out of AMD Jan 18 '14 $4 Calls @ $0.45...


$0.17 per share gain, or +60.71% gross profits...


Into AA Oct 19 '13 $8 Calls @ $0.33 + Into AA Oct 19 '13 $8 Puts @ $0.17 = $0.50...


Earnings announcement on 8 October 2013 and it seems to be moving already...



P.S. And these are so inexpensive!


Trying To Strangle The SPY: Into SPY Sep 30 '13 $171 Calls @ $1.09 + Into SPY Sep 30 '13 $170 Puts @ $1.67 = $2.76...

Out of KR Sep 21 '13 $37 Calls @ $2.83... Original Straddle @ $1.99...


My best straddle so far!

+$0.84 per share gain, or +42.21% gross profits...




Thursday, September 12, 2013

Knife, Camera, Action!


The speculation about whether the Fed will taper continues and based on price action over the past few days, the rise in the SPY has been met with a rise in volume, which some technicians view as a sign of exhaustion and people wanting to get out.  

The SPY 50 SMA is also above the 25 SMA, pointing to a potential shift to the bearish gear, my dear!

Will my puts make it this time?  I'm tired of trying and trying and then getting rejected...

The payoff better be worth the wait!


25 SMA = 1662.76
50 SMA = 1669.72
200 SMA = 1572.20


-1.94% SBA
-1.19% Roth IRA

-0.17% DJIA
-0.24% Nasdaq
-0.34% S&P 

+0.01% FTSE
-0.02% Eurofirst
-0.26% Nikkei
+0.64% Shanghai
+0.15% SENSEX
+0.07% Hang Seng

+1.05% WTI
+1.28% Brent
-3.04% Gold
-1.46% Copper
-0.99% Corn

-0.45% USD/JPY
-0.49% EUR/JPY

-1.08% DJT
+3.47% VIX

0.85 CBOE Put / Call Ratio

-0.45% 10-Year US Treasury Notes


33% Advancing Issues on NYSE                    |   33% Up Volume
64% Declining Issues on NYSE                     |   66% Down Volume
3% Unchanged                                          |   1% Unchanged
142 New Highs   |   63 New Lows


34% Advancing Issues on Nasdaq                 |   29% Up Volume
62% Declining Issues on Nasdaq                  |   63% Down Volume
4% Unchanged                                          |   7% Unchanged
129 New Highs   |   12 New Lows


Today's Major Headlines

Unemployment Claims Better, But Could Be Due To Processing Delays?

Dell Shareholders Back $24.8 Billion Buyout



Out of GRPN Sep 21 '13 $11 Calls @ $1.11...


Original $11 straddle entry price of $0.87...

Gain of $0.24 per share, or 27.58% on position...


Into GRPN Sep 21 '13 $12 Calls @ $0.43 + Into GRPN Sep 21 '13 $12 Puts @ $0.40 = $0.83...

Out of VXX Oct 19 '13 $16 Puts @ $2.26...


+$0.78 per share gain, or +52.70% gross profits...


Into VIX Oct 16 '13 $14 Calls @ $2.14 + Into VIX Oct 16 '13 $14 Put @ $0.46 = $2.60


VIX must close above 16.60 or below 11.40 in order for break-even... 

And if it closes significantly above or below these levels on the expiry date, then I'll get a cash settlement...



Out of VIX Oct 16 '13 $17 Puts @ $2.35...


$0.68 per share, or +40.71% gross profits...


Out of DIA Sep 21 '13 $154 Calls @ $0.52...


$0.11 per share gain, or 26.82% gross profits...

Looks like calls are getting sold, but might just be fraidy...


Wednesday, September 11, 2013

Happy Birthday, Maria!



I Can't Believe I'm Not Butter...


The bulls have been whipping me up and as the markets continue to churn, I still haven't learned.  I wanted to be great, but I still ended up being market making bait.

I suppose the worst part is I actually had SPY $166 calls, but they were for the 6 September 2013 expiry date and I unfortunately let go of them the day before and didn't get into any more.

The trick to options trading: timing, timing, and timing!

And I've got to get better at this!!


+0.25% SBA
-1.75% Roth IRA

+0.89% DJIA
-0.11% Nasdaq
+0.31% S&P 

+0.07% FTSE
+0.32% Eurofirst
+0.01% Nikkei
+0.15% Shanghai
00.00% SENSEX
-0.17% Hang Seng

+0.31% WTI
+0.34% Brent
-0.18% Gold
+0.11% Copper
+1.16% Corn

+0.33% EUR/USD
+0.55% GBP/USD
-0.54% USD/JPY

+0.03% DJT
-4.68% VIX

-1.32% 10-Year US Treasury Notes


58% Advancing Issues on NYSE                     |   59% Up Volume
40% Declining Issues on NYSE                      |   39% Down Volume
2% Unchanged                                           |   2% Unchanged
179 New Highs   |   69 New Lows


45% Advancing Issues on Nasdaq                  |   57% Up Volume
51% Declining Issues on Nasdaq                   |   40% Down Volume
4% Unchanged                                           |   3% Unchanged
172 New Highs   |   16 New Lows


Today's Major Headlines:

Verizon Borrows $49 Billion In Record Bond Sale

Southeastern Takes 11.9% Stake In News Corp

Fears Over iPhone Price Hits AAPL Shares, But Carl Icahn Told CNBC He Bought Today...


P.S. Lehman's creditors apparently still own 49% of Neuberger Berman.  Why shouldn't we as bondholders get a share of Neuberger Berman as part of the settlement?  




Into More VIX Sep 18 '13 $16 Calls @ $0.25... Average Price = $0.4825...


I've got the VIX and VXX straddles going on, but if they don't work out for some reason, then this trade could give me another potential route to financial ecstasy...

Last time Bernanke took the stage, he was the source of massive spikes in the VIX...