Thursday, September 30, 2010

Baa Ram EU...

I haven't been paying that much attention to currencies lately, but today, I realised that I still loathe those Ministers of Finance that sold GBP/USD and dragged down my salary on the EUR/USD back in May... They better not let me find out who they are - those Liberal Elite Forex Traders. So we're essentially back where we started at about the 1.57 level and the GOLs have come full circle, which is what they do best.

One would think that CENX's rush for gold with another push +2.01% would make up for it. CENX officially bolted out When A Man Loves A Woman to me, closing the day above $13. This is promising and I continue to eye the $14-16 range. If I manage to close out the trade at the 52WH, I'd be close to +80% on the trade. However, I'm going to have to continue watching oil and other commodities very closely.

Overall, I think if Bernanke decides to Quantitative Ease Our Pain, it should bode well for the equities market.

I have been feeling quite demoralised ever since I bet the subsistence farm on that GBP/USD trade. This could end up being the worst year ever for me. Everything but the fashion front has experienced some sort of upheaval, so if things continue to go downhill from here, I am going to have to make some very dramatic changes myself.

Once my PDO is done (in about two weeks' time), I am going to seek my revenge on the forex world at large. And it would be perfect timing too - with the CFTC regulations due to take effect. Lots of stops will have to be run... I will play with their numbers, unbutton their prices all the way to the 50% retracement level, and ride their trend!

Is anyone else wondering... whatever happened to Rusty?

Report Card for today... another F:

-0.70% on the SBA
-0.29% on the Roth IRA

I have got to work on the positioning a little bit more...

Wednesday, September 29, 2010

Quantitative Ease My Pain...

Ever since I renamed my blog to ForexDiva's 2 Percent In Investing, I've been on a bit of a nosedive.

Today was no exception. CENX made a new high, but a rather unconvincing one, failing to close above $13. However, I'm watching a trendline on CENX. It has technically broken above the Brian Dolan Line on a one-year chart, so it may yet have some further momentum. We still have plenty of call options from the $13 to $14 levels. I would like to see some heavy puts positioned there as well, but let's see if the calls are enough to drive prices up some more. I'm about +23% on the position in a bit more than a month and the upwards push is not intense enough for me.

I added to C yesterday at $3.88, but it was a small lot. I am considering building this position up again to a financially dignified few thousand shares position, although I have to admit that when it comes to a solid balance sheet, there are much better picks. It's just that... well, I've fallen in love with the potential of C. Risk:reward wise, C is just too irresistible. If I find another stock in the same price bracket, I might have to rethink this strategy.

Report Card for today:

-0.85% on the SBA
-0.19% on the Roth IRA

Is anyone else wondering... aren't the Central Banks a bit like manufacturers who don't even believe in their own product? They're manufacturing so much money and yet go out and buy gold. So essentially, they're saying: even we know that our product is all about the marketing. How's that for confidence?

Yet without the marketing, all they've got are bits and pieces of paper.

Monday, September 27, 2010

Confessional Booth Time: Volume 270910

I've been feeling a lot more confident after getting back from my trip to HK. Usually, the city does that to me - except for when Lehman happened. In a city like HK, where shopaholism rules, it sometimes feels like one can do everything with just a tiny bit of moola. It seems everyone either has a Gucci or a Louis Vuitton bag. So, my Hermes Kelly + Twilly ruled the day - naturally, being the Sovereign In Debt and all.

Maybe I got too confident... because now I'm feeling a bit like I can't do wrong. Maybe I totally made the wrong call with my gold-diggin' analysis the other day. Especially after I read this interesting commentary from Boris Schlossberg. Then, I read on FT that Central Banks everywhere are buying gold. Doubts started sinking in.

So, I'm going to carefully step back and not doing anything about gold just yet, though I'm really almost dying to sell it. Just like I was dying to get some Chopard eyewear in HK, but decided to shop around instead. But that hurt so much. I literally felt a pang in my heart (for a whole week) when I couldn't bring home those beautifully crafted, oh-so-rare, take-off-my-glasses-now Sexy Librarian glasses. I decided the 1000 Euros I had to pay in HK was definitely worth the wait. LOL.

Of course, it seems I'd forgotten that in order to be a Sexy Librarian, one actually has to be smart. No matter! I already want these glasses too much, so it's only a matter of when. And if they happen to make me look smarter without actually boosting my IQ, that's fine too. Fashion counts. LOL.

My CENX (a meagre +0.32% today, but set a new 3-month high) will bring me one step closer, though the rest of my portfolio doesn't seem to agree...

-0.58% on the SBA
-0.79% on the Roth IRA

I'm going to watch CENX closely now. If commodities start flatlining across the board, then I might have to tell CENX au revoir mon ami, shut it and cut it.

Friday, September 24, 2010

I Would Be Totally Predictable...

... if I started sighing right now. But what else can one do but sigh when the trading plaisir is this magnificently breath-taking? Today's rally was pure poetry.

CENX hit the right spot with a +6.57% pop, bringing my paper profits to over +20%. I was watching the price action on this and at the $12.50 level, five figure bid blocks started stepping in. Is that a short-squeeze charged with electric magnetism or what? Beautiful work of art!

Harry joined in the chorus with a +3.57% gain whilst BCS appeased with +4.26%.

I've now got three high beta heroes - all fiery and charged up - all competing for the Junk Bond Queen's loving attention. I should like to take all their glasses off. Bwahahahaha...

+3.86% on the SBA
+2.50% on the Roth IRA

May the trading passion continue as I look to becoming a bona fide day trader!

Once my PDO is complete, I'm making an instantaneous switch to Honeygreen Money Making Machine Type PPT! Isn't that exciting?

Thursday, September 23, 2010

I'm An Idiot!

At least my portfolio's making me feel like an idiot...

My Sultan's got new clothes too. Apparently, BCS is not the only alpha bank in the world. I opened my eyes and looked at DB and this is a balance sheet that looks very much like love at first sight. $1.70 trillion in cash! That's $2,746.42 in cash per share. That's more than Brazil's GDP. That's... oooh la la...

My portfolio did not close the day with such fervour:

-2.46% on the SBA
-1.20% on the Roth IRA

Thankfully, my SBA is only a vestige of its former self in terms of value since I took out some moola after my recent portfolio rebalancing when I got grilled by C. This means that both the upside and the downside is much less than previous moves. However, this shall change once I get my hands on some more cash. There's also a nudging feeling that maybe I should bank something, but there's nothing that I can really half-in half-out with.

There's been so much selling this year that there's almost an inclination for the market to go up, but I've got an upside bias in almost any market.

CENX hit $12.33 today and nearly touched the $12.35 level I have been dreaming about. So close... yet so tantalisingly far away.

Gold-diggin' Professors, I Did My Own Homework...

... and probably yours too. LOL.

I'm an Awful, Bigoted Woman and I've got a bias that a gold bubble is bound to form - even if I'm the only woman on earth to think so. It's only a question of when. I started pondering what would signify that the bubble's about to burst and a few indications probably have to occur before this happens:

1. P/S or P/B or both on the majority of gold miners would have to really go postal, especially junior miners
2. the prices on a long term gold chart would have to coincide with a 5th wave formation
3. there would have to be indications of gold miners overproducing

The big question here is what is considered an overvalued P/S or P/B in a market that's clearly got a lot of momentum. Already, we see P/S values on some stocks above the psychologically important 10 level. Is a P/S of 15 enough to crash the cart or do we have to see 20? Note that GOLD's P/S is already trading above 18.

Here's my homework, Professor... don't give me detention!

Wednesday, September 22, 2010

What A Boar...

So the biggest news out of my trading session was CENX making a push up to $11.94, forming a new 3-month high. The rest of my portfolio is decidedly lack-lustre, but it looks like we're on our way to running the CENX short-sellers that started dominating the market way back in May, so I'm setting my sights higher. Note that CENX did end up hitting close to the $12.35 level I was dreaming of selling at. Now that circumstances have changed, I'm also changing and am pinning my hopes on the $14-16 range. A lot depends on the follow-through, or lack thereof, on gold, oil, copper, corn, and other commodities.

I'm contemplating rebalancing my Roth IRA. I have a choice of either:

a. driving myself completely mad by adding to C
b. or perhaps adding something that I'm slightly less attached to, but no less attracted to, such as SCHW at a rather opportune moment. It's been retracing and this could be the right moment, though I certainly wish I had more cash on hand.

I've been playing with numbers again and it goes a little something like this.

Take a balance sheet... any balance sheet. Subtract debt from cash. Compare current price with net cash. Do this with a few different stocks and choose the one that effectively buys you the most cash compared to current price. Is that a head-turner or what?

Unfortunately, my portfolio's not that much of a head-turner today:

+0.40% on the SBA
-0.99% on the Roth IRA

I'm going to step up my trading in October, my darling! Once the desperation level goes down, profits are bound to start going up...

Tuesday, September 21, 2010

Morning Gory...

Hello... Sultans of Liquidity and Partners In Rhyme. Comment allez vous? I'm back and I know you missed me very much, didn't you? So, on my flight back to Belgium this morning, I picked up a copy of the FT and noticed not only had the recession ended in June 2009, but DJIA was back up above 10,700 - my favourite level - and Nikkei is just on the verge of approaching 10,000. I'm looking to either Nikkei to stay above 10,000 or yields on 10-Year Treasury Notes to break above 2.8% for some definitive Bwahaha Momentum.

Apparently, the market moves on even when America's favourite sovereign isn't around. LOL.

I got back right in time. Bernanke said some stuff he didn't mean and the market ended the day nearly unchanged. My portfolio is better off without my micro-managerial ways, it seems. Overall, my entire portfolio's been up since I took off on my annual adventure to HK.

This time, I hopped into a taxi with a complete stranger who turned out to be tall, dark, and Italian who was headed to the same place - IFC Mall. What? I only did it because I was running late. We didn't hit it off, unfortunately, but I didn't care. Instead, I ended up more than a tiny bit disappointed after learning some other incredibly young, accomplished, inspiring, talented, successful, alpha Tall European Man with dark-rimmed glasses who I perhaps have a tiny bit of a schoolgirl crush on turned out to be a really big loser in a legal but unethical way. I knew he was smart, but I didn't think he'd be that smart. I seriously thought he'd be HWD CEO material. There might be a slight chance that he's innocent, but as they say, there can't be smoke without fire. If I wasn't so rose-coloured and desperate, I wouldn't possibly find him even more intriguing after this extra bit of knowledge.

Anyway, back to trading - where my portfolio's on fire. CENX has been climbing up ever since it entered my portfolio in mid August. I'm now +12% on the position and am watching the $14-15 level for some short-squeezing fun. So far, it feels like CENX is holding whilst AA is lagging. I've been watching these two and usually, CENX is the bigger mover either way. Based on what other commodities have been doing (corn is above $5... brent crude above $78... gold above $1280), there's a good chance that aluminum (aluminium to the GOLs) will follow.

I think I got played with C and am looking for a second opportunity to either get back into C or BAC.

+0.08% on the SBA
-0.90% on the Roth IRA

It doesn't look good today, but I'm looking at the overall picture and both portfolios are up from a week back.

In addition to being the proud owner of two new Hermes Twillys, I also recovered part of my cash on my Finlay Fine Jewelry bonds during my time away. All in all, some good progress. Well, except for the Tall European Man. I'm secretly hoping he's somehow innocent, but alas, legal is never a guarantee it's ethical...

P.S. My little brother's back in school!

Tuesday, September 7, 2010

Let's Do the Math...

... finally, some perhaps elementary trading insight after staring at my battered portfolio, which experienced another nosedive. Why everyone is so worked up about BCS, I haven't a clue.

I closed the day:

-1.75% on the SBA
-2.93% on the Roth IRA

I was especially staring at my idiotic position in BAC, which I unfortunately bought at the highs back in February 2007. Yes, I am still carrying this deadwood around even though I banked some profits on BAC earlier in the year. Anyway, I was pondering why is it taking me so forking long to recover this loss, which is but four figures? Then, as I was contemplating the meaning of trading, it hit me like a beach ball.

I can recover this unrealised loss with my next trade. How? If I stand to make 25% on my next trade, I would have to make sure the profit on my next position offsets my unrealised loss on BAC. I'd then close out both positions and call it a draw. So...

x = my quote unquote drawdown on BAC
x / 0.25 = initial amount to invest in order for 25% profit to equal unrealised loss on BAC
I'm going to do it! I'm going to recover my portfolio - and then some!
And now, I must pack to get ready for my palatial escapade where I'll be in the same time zone as our Yen Friends. Of course this is a business trip, but it doesn't stop me from enjoying the vibrant city life with shops that are open till at least 11 pm. I like to keep things light as logistically, one can do a lot more shopping if the suitcase is relatively empty to begin with. Unfortunately, the wallet's a bit empty too. And perhaps so is the head.
Don't long for me too much, my dear HSFTs...

Friday, September 3, 2010


... or not... At least, not when it comes to my dearly beloved HWD. Today, we had a bit of a disconnect as Harry got upgraded by RBC, broke yesterday's high, and subsequently got sold. HWD closed the week down -2.54% today after having had a stellar + amazing double digit daily gain yesterday. Today's action was far from ditto.

In Extended Hours Trading, I noticed a +2.15% pop on HWD, so hopefully, next week will see a continuation of Harry's Rise to Market Prominence.

I started out my day on a high as well, thinking about how I went from making [a certain amount of money] to now soon-to-be saving [a certain amount of money]. It's a complete turn-around and I keep telling myself I can cross the finish line. Now, I'm ending the day on a bit of a low, pondering about my brother. It's September and he should be going back to school soon. Now that the dust has settled a bit, I'm wondering if I should have taken a different approach recently.

I was the Woman Who Tried to Ride the GOL's Trend with A Bike-Sized Account, but worse yet, this year, I'll also go down as the Woman Who Stopped Her Brother From Pursuing Higher Education as well. That's a bit heavy, isn't it. I would have to borrow the money anyway, so it's either I get weighed down or my brother gets boxed in a low-wage situation until further notice.

I'm not sure I'm into giving away the subsistence farm anymore though...

-1.08% on the SBA (way below par... Nasdaq was the best-performer with +1.53%)
+2.31% on the Roth IRA

Everyone has something to look forward to, though. Starting some time next week, I'll be travelling for some time and will not be blahing so much - if at all.

Why do I get the feeling that you'll miss me, dear HSFTs? Don't run too many stops without me... I want some of the fun too!

Thursday, September 2, 2010

My Toyota's Hot, Hot, Hot!

Is my wallet getting big? I reckon it is...

SBA closed the day +8.86% thanks to my one and only, His Imperial Highness Harry Alpha Winston
Roth IRA a meagre +0.04% (spelling it like the GOLs... LOL)

CENX and HWD are like my Teenage Dream Team now. I was so scared that Harry would use the I love you, but I'm not in love with you excuse on me. Instead, it turned out to be our most enthralling position yet.

If we're headed into another bull run, which might be premature to declare, then my portfolio's stronger than it's been in a while - with the probable exception of LEHMQ, which has been unbearably dull even with Richard Fuld being so bold. Small position, potentially very big gain.

Shall I rename my blog to... ForexDiva's 2 Percent In Investing yet?

Let's see if this is sustainable first. This time around, we shall not count our chickens before they hatch.

I am keeping an eye on CENX especially since this could either be a nascent uptrend in the making or I'd have to take a very quick profit on it.

Does it matter that I'm still deep in a double digit loss with my SBA? As long as Harry, CENX, and the Crown Prince move in my favour, I still have a chance at becoming Miss Equities 2010 / the Sovereign That's No Longer In Debt / Junk Bond Queen / ForexDiva et al.

Oh, yes...

Whoa Is Me...

I had to do a double take and I usually don't blah during the middle of a trading session, but with something like this happening, I can't help but be just a tiny bit smug and tell the bears Bwahaha!

My wish is Harry's command today and Harry's been brushing many of the right levels on volume that is about 6 times higher than normal, pushing prices +17.93% thus far. If we close like this, or even higher, this would be one nice ride! The Sovereign of Burgers, BKC, is stealing our thunder, though, with a prevailing +24.2% move.

And this morning, I was just saying to myself I'll buy HWD on a retracement.

Overall, my SBA's up over +8% just because HWD has proven once again how truly desirable it is to be high beta.

Stay tuned for more chart breaking news...

Wednesday, September 1, 2010

Harry's Up +5.07% in Extended Hours Trading...

... yes, fill my wallet, Harry!

What exceptional work there with the $0.21 per share profit...

Obviously, Frederic de Narp has done something right on the retail front. I prematurely judged a book by its cover with my earlier posts calling for a CEO under the age of 33. Only I know who I had in mind and now I'm not sure he would have done a better job, though his French accent seems to be a bit more appealing.

Keep it going, Harry!

I Got Arbitraged...

... LOL. Whoa, that intriguing balance sheet of SCHW did not get overlooked in today's market rally. +6.11% in one day on a low beta stock - not an everyday occurrence by any stretch of the imagination. But I wasn't in the trade, so I'm going to remain aloof and instead look at what occurred in my portfolio.

And though the rally included me, my portfolio only followed the movement of the market at best. Sovereigns don't like average performance, so my portfolio increases, though nothing to be ashamed about, are nothing to be excited about either.

Interestingly, Burger King, aka BKC, (terrible pun intended) increased +14.65% today on a buyout report. Most people are content with annual gains like this, but I'm on a quest to be one of the best. I'm feeling a tiny bit more upbeat now and will continue to aim for high single digit and occasionally double digit daily gains. Repeat: daily gains.

At times, I might have a bad run like I just had for, oh the past three to four months, but we've got to keep running, batting, and confessing our trading wins and sins, haven't we?

+2.56% on the SBA
+2.98% on the Roth IRA

It was about time, wasn't it?

As they say, every cat has their day.