Wednesday, March 31, 2010
I've got a technical reason now! Four in fact.
Look at RSI, MACD histogram, MACD, and Stochastics - all showing bearish divergences.
I got in with a bullish divergence. Technically, I should have gotten out with a bearish divergence. DIDO = Divergence In, Divergence Out
See chart below...
GBP/USD 15 minute
OK... I admit it. Chinese guys aren't the only ones who take miscalculated risks. Chinese women do the same. In hindsight, I plucked myself three times with this recent GBP/USD trade. The eyebrow-less look does not suit anyone!
1. I got in at a Don't Touch the Stove, It's Hot Moment. My trade was down at least -350 pips. I then was able to correct this TETSOB mistake by getting in at a very good level of support, which I have the suspicion the bigger players are defending.
2. When the trade got to breakeven, I plucked myself by getting out of the trade and buying back only one lot at a slightly lower price because I thought I was offsetting some risk. It's true, but if I wasn't that scared at -350 pips, why was I all of a sudden afraid of a retracement now? And keep in mind my account is tiny.
3. I again committed another trading sin yesterday when UK data came out better than expected. Seeing no real follow through in prices, I got out pronto. I was so happy with my 97.4 pips profit, but looking at the market today, I clearly plucked myself not once, not twice, but three times! I missed out on at least another 110 pip move up.
My usual response to this would be... I want to get revenge and I'll short this pair just for no apparent reason. However, did I inadvertently become a Trendsetter / Go-getter / Farm Better?
Tuesday, March 30, 2010
Today's the second day in a row that my portfolio ended the day red.
+0.11% on the standard brokerage
-0.95% on the Roth IRA
+97.40 pips (yahooooooo!)
After trading for a while, I noticed that there's one day of the week that I always end up losing money if I trade and that is Thursday! I have no idea why that is, but I have since been avoiding any trading on Thursday. Is it superstition? Psychological? Blame it on the weather type phenomenon?
Avoiding it actually has saved me a lot of money. So, I pose the question to my fellow Happy Shiny Profit Takers: is there that one day of the week that you consistently lose money with your strategy? Why trade it?
If you're the Guys of London, then faster than I can ask: May I ride your trend?
I took profit on my long GBP/USD position at +97.40 pips during my Lunchtime Fun with the Guys of London session. I was hoping this would become a trendship with benefits. But then, I started noticing that an intermediate top could be forming and since there's no significant data due out until US ISM Manufacturing on 1 April 2010, I thought I better take profit. It turns out it was a good move since I hadn't noticed there was going to be the US Consumer Confidence announcement. This had the potential to reduce my profit, but in this case, it didn't do much. I missed out on an additional 20 pip run up or something. I also managed to pluck myself by getting out of one lot yesterday, thinking I'll offset some risk. No point crying over spilt milk.
I am still looking to buy on a pullback on GBP/USD. The dynamics have changed. UK GDP and Nationwide HPI both were much better than expected. Bernanke keeps whispering "extended period." Sayonara, Dollar Bulls! Bwahaha Halloween Type Evil Laugh...
The next Moment of Fun will be Non-Farm Pay Day this Friday. I am pondering whether I should trade it?
If Harry Winston does some more alpha male moves, I'll be in Financial Heaven...
Monday, March 29, 2010
Since I got to breakeven with my GBP/USD position, which admittedly went to financial hell and back, I got out of the position and I'm now in again at a few pips below my original entry level. My reasoning is mainly fraidy.
I was in this trade and I was thinking: I'm in this long GBP/USD trade and it has to go up because I'm in it. It was the whole TETSOB thing. Then, I realised... hey, isn't this the trade setup that I usually like to short?? And it was that very familiar setup indeed, but I didn't see it because I was long. So, I said, I'll get out, recover my money and try to get in again before the night is over, which I've done. I halved my original position and got in at just a few pips below my original entry - in case the Guys of London decide to try on some little black dresses just for fun. I'll be able to hold onto my beret (not that I have any).
I know how lucky I was and in hindsight, GBP/USD could have totally disregarded the bullish divergences. But the Guys of London did the whole Alpha + Tall European Muscular Men thing.
I don't want to go through another week of not knowing if I'll be able to withstand some more GBP/USD volatility, so I'm trying to keep my account flexible. After all, it's tiny.
If you're going to have a big account, it shouldn't be because you're afraid of overleveraging it. It's to maintain your financial agility and flexibility, isn't it. But don't be overly TETSOB - or overly fraidy!
I am so emotionally volatile though...
Good night and Happy Shiny Profit Taking to everyone!
How fast can one contradict oneself? If you're ForexDiva, then it'll only take a few minutes!
I almost missed out on some potential trend on trend action with HWD since Harry has something to tell us on 31 March 2010...
Now I'm thinking... will we see a much-awaited return to profitability for Harry? Will we finally break a $1 billion market cap?
This one should send the blood gushing again if tomorrow's UK GDP doesn't send the head spinning...
Just when I thought I had to change my theme song to Lascia Ch'io Pianga forever, the muscular Guys of London put the wind back into the sails of the GBP/USD long trendship with benefits trade. I am on the verge of recovering all my losses on this trade, being less than -20 pips down, and if it manages to stay above 1.50, I'm going to possibly hold onto it for longer. Tomorrow is the Big Scream It From the Rooftops event of UK GDP and it's really, really quiet right now. The market's hardly moving...
I have to ask myself what I would have done if this little red dress of a bullish divergence didn't work out today. Would I still be so calm and collected? Well, relatively speaking anyway. I'm always the type who appears frazzled and dazzled. One time, I was skipping along on the streets of Belgium and two women remarked that I looked like I was dancing. What? Can't a woman be happy for once? I just bought some macarons or something. That was then. This is now. I'm so serious all of a sudden and PDO and my portfolio are all I ever think about.
Oh, I don't want to be a One-Hit Wonder. I haven't had a good trendship with benefits in some while. The only open investment giving me any sort of plaisir lately was C, which is now retracing on the news of the Treasury sale. Nonetheless, this has the potential of being a Wake the Neighbours type trade for me if I hold onto it long enough. The profits are already very mesmerising, although I suspect my portfolio's going to close the day negative.
I've really sort of run out of inspiration though. I'm thinking about taking profit on HWD since I'm experiencing a shortfall in cash. I was expecting a bigger tax refund and will be getting only about half of what I anticipated. How much do I hate the IRS now? On a scale of 1 to 10, 10 being the highest, 1000. This will put my PDO off by a month, which means that I'll only gain my financial freedom after I turn one and thirty. Although I'll still have my Hermes Kelly as scheduled, I wanted to have a debt-free birthday, so if it means parting with my beloved Harry, I might have to ROTBA.
Do my analogies even make sense anymore?
At least my financial life is still on track - relatively speaking.
Since April is around the corner and more earnings announcements are expected for some of the stocks in my portfolio, I'm not going to be engaging in any high risk activity such as rebalancing my portfolio. I will have to be patient and keep my trading legs closed. Such a difficult thing for a nymphomaniac to do!
Lascia ch'io pianga
Mia cruda sorte
E che sospiri la libertà!
OMG... this song is so fitting, isn't it...
Sunday, March 28, 2010
One of the reasons I actually dusted off my feather dusters and got back into trading was that I read an inspiring article by Boris Schlossberg: Better Never Than Late. It got me thinking about the whole flight vs. fight thing and I thought to myself... is my instinct flight or fight? Am I really going to be a FWF to myself, my portfolio, my financial future? Of course, the mention of Salvatore Ferragamo always gets my attention too. I want Hermes and a lifetime of it. For God's sake, I want Harry Winston!
So, I got back in gradually and I promised myself I would take it slow and opt for open relationships with all my investments. However, it was not slow enough. This recent GBP/USD trade I've been in left me more scared than I should be. I once again allowed my emotions to control me.
My forex trading account is so small that if I threaten to trade with another forex broker, my broker would probably roll out the red carpet and tell me: There is a God! Please don't let the retracements hit you on the way out. So why am I so scared about every little pip?
Thursday, March 25, 2010
Like from every direction!
I had a good run up with my standard brokerage account and Roth IRA (as in +1.92% and +1.27% respectively), but I'm wishing I hadn't gotten into my long GBP/USD position, which is starting to bring more pain than plaisir. Whatever happened to my Inner Fraidiness? A Tall European Man gave me an Ice Ice Baby look that could melt any woman's portfolio and it went out the window.
-348 pips and I got into another lot at 1.4828... I'm looking to target 1.5050 before the US GDP announcement tomorrow. No smirking, please. It's a crazy price, but sometimes crazy prices work! It's either that, or I'm dying young and Hermes Kelly-less. And I'm still chaste, for God's sake! I'll probably get straight to Heaven then.
I'm thinking maybe I should get the pork out of here because this is the trade that could mark the end of ForexDiva, but I got into this trade with a Daily Chart setup, so I need to be able to withstand this fluctuation. My philosophy is since there's been a week's worth of selling, there must be some stops above the 1.5050 area. Moreover, there's a clear support level at about 1.4788. My risk is, in theory, low. And I've been lower than low this week.
My Big Problemo is that I've been seeing only what I've wanted to see with these charts. I have a bias now and a TETSOB as well. And that's very, very off-putting in trading.
I don't know if I can still trade my way out of this, but I'm going to give it my heart and soul because this is what capitalism is all about. You win some and you lose some, but at the end of the day, it's your responsibility.
I lowered my standards by opening my trading legs at any level and now I must think, think, think rather than hiding behind my usual coral reef. Coral is my Chinese name by the way. Seriously!
Please let the market get to 1.5050... please, please, please...
If I blow up my account, this is the end of my trading. I don't think I'll be able to handle the humiliation...
All my work has amounted to A Colossal Failure of Common Sense!
We like big pips and we can’t deny.
All your brothers are starting to sigh.
When a girl walks in with an itty bitty stop
And she’s buying all the tops…
I'm such a bimbo and I know it, but tomorrow there's a Scream It From the Rooftops Event - US GDP!
There's got to be a way for me to successfully get out of this GBP/USD trade before then if I manage to streamline my TETSOB even slightly...Rewrite your own disastrous trading history...
Wednesday, March 24, 2010
I'm back from beautiful CHF Land, where I saw a minimum of 6 different women with Hermes Birkins within the span of two days, and after several chaste encounters with Tall European Men who turned out to be meek and weak, I was just thinking yesterday: are there any real men left in this world? Turns out, they're all in the US and they're all long USD! Guys of London, you're not half the pound I thought you were...
I got back, opened my trading platforms, and was appalled at how I let my GBP/USD long trade get to this level of devastation and desperation. I promised myself I would be trading myself out of this mess and after a retracement that brought my account back to -50 pips from -135 pips, I was all happy and eyeing the Rolex instead of the forex. What a mistake!
Now I'm -265 pips and I am wondering out loud, with all my heart, who's going to save me?
Darling, save me, I say... and there Alistair Darling was with his modest and debonair budget!
Sunday, March 21, 2010
So it seems I wasn't the only one giving the Catholic Church a bad name, but I committed some more trading sins this week.
My feather dusters were all ruffled and this old trend, he played one!
-2.89% on the standard brokerage account
-1.83% on the Roth IRA
down about -135 pips on a single forex trade that I'm still in, which I have vowed to offset with a big winner
I got all jittery and panicky and reverted back to my "I need my Forex Broker and I need him now" ways. Unfortunately, or should I say fortunately, he wasn't in the office, so I couldn't be all "Oh, [Forex Broker's Name], woe is me. What should I do?"
I decided I wasn't going to be helpless this time. I'm going to trade my way out of this. To sound like a broken record, I traded my way into this mess. I'm going to trade my way out of this!
This is what has happened so far... I got into a MAT trade (think two correlated pairs involving European currencies) during my Lunchtime Fun with the Guys of London session on Friday. I was quite sure that risk would take off once again and I would then be in the moola with two beautiful double-edged sword countertrend trades. I kept the trades open even though I had to get back to work.
And I was wrong! They're the Guys of London and they don't do small pips! My account was probably down over 200 pips on both trades at some point, but I didn't get out. And it wasn't because I was suddenly Un-Fraidy Cat. It was because I didn't have access to my accounts. Anyway, it turned out that a retracement on one of the trades would bring me back to a minor 2 or 3 pip loss, which I took. My reasoning is not fear on this, but I wanted to maintain the flexibility of going in the right direction with this pair should my current trade run further into the red.
My challenge on this one is not to focus on how bimbo I've been. I know that part. I was up about +90 pips the past week and am facing a -135 pip drawdown. I allowed my TETSOB to take precedence once again. My challenge now is how to get into a big winner. I would then offset my current loss with the winner rather than using a fixed stop. I'm going to have to probably take a loss at some point with my current position, but when I do it, it's going to have to be fairly minimal. Why take a loss now when I can't be sure my next one's going to be a winner and that this current one's not going to retrace? Markets retrace all the time and I have to now look objectively at where it could potentially retrace to. I honestly don't know if I can do it, but I won't stop myself from trying!
This is also the part where everyone should be burning with venom and hatred at the CFTC for getting rid of the Point & Shoot functionality and forcing its unreasonable FIFO accounting standards on everyone. The only way I can trade myself out of this is with another pair instead of playing a potential retracement.
It's a big week ahead since I'm going to be in the Lovely Land of Neutrality / Tall European Men / Best Chocolate In the World for just a few days. I'm also going to have to get myself out of this trade - preferably alive. I don't usually trade forex on a Sunday, but I'll just keep an eye out today for any unexpected turbulence. But at least I've got something to look forward to. Switzerland is an absolute sanctuary for me. I'd say it's one of my favourite places on earth besides London.
Wednesday, March 17, 2010
I'm ForexDiva and no pip is too small for me!
Seriously... in hindsight, I could have gotten a lot more out of the market on these JPY crosses I have been trading. I mean they're JPY crosses and by their very nature, are supposed to be volatile and therefore yield price action. But I got all fraidy cat again and missed out on some major pips. Moreover, I feel like I'm keeping secrets to myself when the whole point of my blog is supposed to be about sharing my trading mishaps and successes with the handful of people who read my blog. That is, if I haven't offended everyone away with my off-colour remarks, including the one about not doing Chinese guys.
I digress yet again. So, let's take a look at what I've been doing lately since I've been rather vague.
But first, my results. Aujourd'hui, I got away with:
about +18 pips
-0.33% on the standard brokerage
-0.22% on the Roth IRA
I kept changing my mind every 10 seconds during my forex trades. I really should stay away from my computer and learn some set it and forget it. A politically incorrect colleague of mine recently mentioned I was micro-managerial. I'll admit it! And why shouldn't I?
Right... so it seems with the blink of an eye, my portfolio suddenly started smokin' like a chimney. It's still way off-base and I still have some major recovery to do, but I think I'm on the right track to board some more trendships with benefits.
First, I had a garage sale and got rid of the old, salvaging whatever I can from the junk that was in my account, including ABK, ABK bonds, etc. Whatever I didn't like, I sold. It was painful, but in hindsight, it seems to be worth it.
I then took the remaining capital and I topped up on some $10 and under plays, as well as high beta stocks - mainly in the financial sector. I literally analysed hundreds of balance sheets, scanning for stocks that were trading below book value with a low Price/Sales ratio. The Five Car Parking Lot idea proved to be quintessential to my portfolio recovery. My major lesson: if you can find a stock that meets your investment criteria that now trades at a lower price than your current stock and you feel like your current stock has met some resistance, it may be worth it to switch to the new stock if you can get more shares out of the new one.
I made some more mistakes along the way, including selling IPG, BGCP, AA, BNHNA (which I had written off for good) and BX all too soon. My major lesson: not recognising that by getting out straight away, I had also killed some trendships with benefits with the proverbial double edged sword.
I made some good plays as well, including catching some falling knives such as MS at $26.20 (very near to its recent support level - one gold star, no make that two) and sticking with C for a few years.
And now, for what I thought was my top secret super duper forex trading strategy... don't take it from me... it seems others, such as Todd Gordon, have been trading it for a while, which means I need to open my eyes and pay attention to what other better traders are doing.
The world is big and hiding behind a coral reef all the time doesn't work!
I need to start thinking about scale now.
Keep thinking big, Happy Shiny Forex Traders! The worst thing anyone can say about your trading is probably... your pips are too small.
I've really learned a lot from Rusty Vanneman's commentary over the past year.
Here he is again with some more insight into the future direction of the market.
Tuesday, March 16, 2010
Apparently, no one else traded FOMC. The price action wasn't even that intense. Instead of going for GBP/USD, I went for two high volatility pairs during my lunchtime fun session. I'm in bimbo limbo after taking profit on two My Little Pony forex trades today for a total profit of about 33 pips, which means I've still got two open positions.
My life all of a sudden revolves around trading and I even had a dream about meeting Brian Dolan and asking for his autograph last night. Seriously! This is definitely a sign that I should be getting a life. Thankfully, just a few more days until I visit the Land of Neutrality.
It was a rather good trading day overall:
+1.98% on the standard brokerage
+2.68% on the Roth IRA
Just a few more weeks and we'll get earnings announcements from the major banks. On my potential trendships with benefits watchlist:
BAC 16 April 2010
C 19 April 2010
MS 22 April 2010
I want to get to bed already, but since I'm in Bimbo Limbo, I don't want to be missing out on any major high calibre action.
Monday, March 15, 2010
I am planning out a trade, but I'm just too Fraidy Cat! Pick a direction, any direction. LOL.
I reckon there are a few times in the year when we shouldn't be so Fraidy Cat and this is one of them.
Deep breath... and the hyperventilation begins!
But I digress. Back to earth now... today, I was disappointed with:
-1.13% on the standard brokerage
-0.96% on the Roth IRA
Bernanke's getting on his soapbox on 16 March and that should end the "extended period" of range-bound action we've been seeing. Nikkei has pushed above 10,700 and I've been noticing that DJIA and Nikkei have basically been moving in very close alignment recently. Well, ever since I started paying attention to the 10,000 Maniacs anyway.
Call options are still looking strong on C, BAC, and MS. So I'm not too depressed. I'm still ticked off about missing out on that big move up on LEHMQ, but I reckon we'll see some more upwards action before restructuring. If it gets to even $0.5, I'll be OHD enough.
Daylight Savings Time is throwing off my trading schedule since in Europe, we're not on DST yet. I have to do some more tedious work for the IRS before going to CHF Land.
I'm thinking of getting in on a GBP/USD trade before FOMC, but am I ready for something like this yet, or should I keep my TETSOB in check and trading legs crossed?
It's a difficult choice, especially when I know there'll be lots of action right up until Bernanke's Big Moment. I think I'll take a cue from the Guys of London during my lunchtime fun session tomorrow before I make a choice.
Friday, March 12, 2010
I totally plucked myself with a few trades this week. All of a sudden, I became a forex nymphomaniac as well and the results are not stellar, but slightly encouraging.
But let's start with the worst trades first.
This morning, after seeing the news on Lehman's "accounting gimmick," I decided to place a sell order during my lunchtime fun session. I thought, why not do the crazy price thing and see if it works. Initially, I thought... why not arbitrariririly do it at $0.35? Then, I got even greedierer and changed it to $0.55. Well, it hit $0.3 today in case anyone else was paying attention and retraced all the way down to $0.11 at the moment. This is clearly a case when greed is not good!
Overall, my portfolio is so red I'm going to probably spend a good part of the weekend coming to terms with this.
-2.42% on the standard brokerage account
-3.28% on the Roth IRA
Since I feel so guilty about keeping secrets, I'll provide some additional clues on my new forex trading strategy. It involves trading two correlated pairs. I'll call it the Menage A Trois for simplicity's sake. What? It involves three currencies. If you want it to get even steamier, then trade two high volatility pairs and two lower volatility pairs all at once for instant trade appeal. I can only trade one correlation at a time since my account is so small. But so far, I've traded it twice this week and I was net about 38 pips. Since it took me some time to figure out, you'll need to do your own homework on this. If a bimbo can discover it, anyone else can.
If it wasn't for some stupid mistakes I made, as in getting too greedy and botching up the execution, this would have netted me at least 90 pips today and about 150 pips more the other day. I am not pleased!
I need to improve my trade execution. And moreover, I need to remember that a watched pot never boils as well as keep my inner fraidy cat in check.
I'm going to do some more smokin' hot trades next week... I can feel it!
Have a good weekend, Happy Shiny Forex Traders!
Thursday, March 11, 2010
C turned out to be such a good play for me. However, I made one critical Thursday Morning Cheerleader Mistake, which was I didn't sell my position in HWD in favour of another lot in C.
The way I now see it, I could be missing out on a lot of upwards price momentum that could potentially translate into another five figure position in the making with the right amount of shares.
The key word of course is potential. It's still just an APKS dream waiting to come true at the moment.
As for today:
+2.99% on the standard brokerage
+2.10% on the Roth IRA
I am trying not to let this inflate my TETSOB any further. Remember we're in a bull market run and a bull market always makes everyone feel so smart. However, since I know I'm bimbo, I'm going to control my TETSOB (and emotional volatility) first.
Third day in a row of trading volume in C running above 1 billion. Is this going to be a given from now on?
Wednesday, March 10, 2010
I couldn't visit a Web site today that didn't mention the news on Barclays looking for a US acquisition. I might not be adding to the conversation, but according to my bimbo point of view, with about $1.19 trillion in cash, Barclays could easily acquire any of the larger US banks with cash, including:
In fact, I think if the FWFOCH would allow it, they could look at two or more acquisitions, but that would probably be OTT.
I've visited all the retail banking centres in the US and unfortunately, none of them are very big on service. I wish one of them would realise that if they could get the client services bit right, they could be building a very sustainable competitive advantage, especially since people actually don't expect quality service from a bank. But I digress.
I don't actually know whether an actual acquisition by Barclays would benefit BAC or C (proud shareholder of both), but thank God they didn't decide to do this immediately after Lehman. This is definitely not going to be a distressed sale type deal and Barclays would need to pay up.
Speaking of C, it's the second day in a row where trading volume exceeded 1 billion. Is something up or what?
I've been accused of many things in my lifetime, including being accused of giving people half-baked ideas, being a back-seat driver, etc. However, having my chastity questioned has never been one of them. If people read my blog, that might be a different story, but really I was so excited about potentially joining the Mile High Club. Unfortunately, today's results were not as exciting as yesterday, so not so fast.
+1.9% on the standard brokerage
+1.38% on the Roth IRA
I might sound a bit... smug? But I'm really worried that all the bull market fun will all of a sudden get stalled. It's the whole once bitten twice shy thing.
I also took profit on my two forex trendships with benefits positions at a total gain of +40.89 pips. I shouldn't have been greedy though because it got up to +80 pips in total. I am glad I didn't have a TETSOB on this one. It would have been anti-climactic to say the least.
Tuesday, March 9, 2010
Average volume over the past ten days was about 259 million.
That's really unusual, isn't it?
Thank God my pain threshold is really kind of high because if I'd gotten out, I would be missing out on all the fun that's going to follow! And the best way to describe C is... it was kind of like an abusive boyfriend. It would give my portfolio a black eye every week and I'd still buy more. LOL.
There are enough call options from the $4-6 range to make my head spin. The $7 range is OK, but possibly not strong enough for the moment. OMG...
It was an incredibly tantric session that lifted my spirit and brought the toe-curling profits another level up. I do hope it gets better than this, although it was pretty much amazing. I'd like to do that again (and again - and then possibly again).
My three trading accounts all experienced some show-stopping, button-popping, couch-hopping inflation today. Oh, yes they did!
+ 2.72% on the standard brokerage
+ 2.16% on the Roth IRA
+ about 50 pips so far with the potential of two trendships with benefits on hand in the forex trading account (yes... it's really happened! Recall I've never made more than 8 pips profits...)
The one thing that got to me was Harry Winston, who really hasn't been performing as he once did. I would do anything to cheer Harry up again, but if I have to, I will get out of this position for good and go with another one since I decided to go ahead and do the whole open relationship thing with all my investments. I do have an emotional attachment to Harry Winston, but at the same time, I'm now looking for 5 carats with all my positions. I regret not taking profit when HWD was at about $12.87, but I was really hoping it'd get to $13.05 and break above a $1 billion market cap. Maybe not for some time.
I'm trying out something new with my forex trading. I won't get into the specifics since I'm trying to be more mysterious with strategies that can potentially make me OHD (One Happy Diva). However, it involves trading two correlated pairs and letting them both run. Do your own homework and discover your own uncharted territory. I love outside of the box thinking and experimentation!
Diva, indeed! Some would call it AAA-rated bitch and Moody's might even create a new dramatic category for me too, but diva is more politically correct, isn't it? Anyway, I like the sound of diva better...
Finally! I'm finally doing it! It's my Big Moment! And I'd like to thank my parents, my sister, my brother, my forex broker, and Brian Dolan, and everyone else I forgot, including any FWFs...
Monday, March 8, 2010
Not even a week away and I can't keep my trading legs closed! So, I'm back, but have decided to take my trading much more slowly now. And I'm thinking... open relationships with all my investments. I'm also going to Switzerland in about two weeks.
My nymphomaniac trading style has taken me far, but my self-pity / personal financial sob story have not!
Today's ForexDiva Portfolio Jackpot results:
+0.70% on the standard brokerage
+2.32% on the Roth IRA (not a typo!)
Whilst I was away, I've had time to think about what it is I want to do with myself and my portfolio.
At the beginning of the year, I wrote down a whole bunch of goals I wanted to achieve this year, including:
1. Be really, really happy.
2. Live a passionate life.
3. Be financially free before I turn one and thirty.
4. Have six figures in cash or cash equivalents by EOY 2010.
5. Buy Hermes Kelly or Birkin with matching wallet and matching watch - definitely very OTT.
The rest of the stuff, you don't need to know.
At some point last week, I found myself feeling really, really overwhelmed. I had been basically jumping from one trade to another from EOY 2009 through to a good part of February 2010 non-stop. Even a nymphomaniac needs a break every once in a while. It was getting exhausting and honestly, I thought my portfolio wasn't smokin' hot anymore.
But the thing that really, really got to me was this. I looked at my personal balance sheet and for the first time in at least a decade, my liquid assets have finally surpassed my liabilities - and I wasn't any happier. And it really started sinking in. I will not have any more excuses from this point onwards. I won't be able to say to myself I'm not happy today because my finances are a mess or I can't do this because my balance sheet isn't in order or even I'm such a bimbo trader because psychologically, the debt is taking a toll on me. Do you know what I mean? Maybe not, but everyone needs an excuse once in a while, but now I don't have one.
There was no turning back, so I turned around so to speak. I decided I needed to stop this for a while and then I realised I had the power to walk away now and be carefree if I wanted to. Now that's freedom!
So why did it feel so bad? I suppose there's always that adjustment period when one chapter ends and the next begins. But this time, I can really write what I want in this next chapter, so I've got to be slightly more thoughtful!
Then there's the thing about my family and here's the thing about holding the longer end of the stick during a recession. It doesn't matter if you've been in a recession all your life. When you're getting out of one and it appears you've got it better than other people, there's always the element of guilt involved even if your so-called personal triumph was just getting out of a financial fiasco you've been in for over a decade. Is that winning? It's just getting back to zero according to my diva standards. But hopefully, the party's just getting started. I've now got a few more months to go before my liabilities are completely erased PDO style.. At the end of that period, I will have still a good five figures in liquid assets. It may not be chart-topping, but it'll definitely be a good foundation for me to work with.
Delete all thoughts on the annuities I was considering before. I'm now considering purchasing bonds for my family so that the dynamic is more balanced - as in I'll be able to, in principle, keep the principal.
My favourite trade of the past week: LEHMQ... up +37.88% to date... seriously not a typo!
Messed up on: BGCP, BX, and IPG - should have moved my stop to exit on these trades since they all turned out to be mini trendships with benefits.
BNHNA: totally got fried...
To sum it all up, my most important financial lesson of the week was past performance is really not indicative of future results. I'm now officially in an uptrend!
Put all your equestrian skills to good use with all your trendships with benefits, Happy Shiny Forex Traders!
Tuesday, March 2, 2010
Lately, regardless of the performanace of my portfolio, I haven't been any happier. Sure, there were moments of bliss, but it seems it just isn't enough even when my portfolio has rebounded tremendously.
So, I started asking myself why wasn't I happy? And it turns out it has something to do with the red carpet treatment.
On deeper reflection, I found myself having rolled out the red carpet to be treated like a doormat in many aspects of my life. Where was my passion? Was I being true to myself?
And in one moment of clarity, it became clear to me. I was listening to everyone but myself, which is self-limiting to the extreme. My portfolio hasn't suffered that much, but I'm exhausted from all the Wake the Neighbours type trading.
So, I'm going to have to take some time off and really think about where I want my portfolio to go.
Who knows how long I can keep my trading legs closed? I could be back in the confessional booth much too soon. In the meantime, I'll no doubt enjoy some more toe-curling two hour massages.
Happy, Shiny forex trading to everyone!
Monday, March 1, 2010
-0.18% on the Roth IRA
Did anyone else see this trendship with benefits happening so soon with IPG? The thing is I missed the perfect storm. There probably won't be a moment like this again in some time. IPG closed the day with a $4 billion market cap. I am going to watch its industry peers closely. WPPGY and OMC both closed with market caps of $11.7 billion market each today. I've noticed that second runner ups aren't necessarily bad for one's portfolio if the semi-conductor industry is any indication. The volatility in INTC was much less compared to AMD. However, AMD was the one that moved.
I have been so inconsistent lately though. One minute I'm talking about the long term and the next, I jump out of a trade prematurely. It doesn't work! E*Trade gave me a Power E*Trade upgrade today out of the blue. It pays to be a nymphomaniac trader sometimes. That's the spirit, Rusty!
I might still need to do some more homework... BNHNA was no fun, but if LEHMQ goes according to plan, I will be able to recover that loss really quickly.
Yields in the bond market are slightly better than Friday, with the best yield standing at about 7.88% on Municipals A. The question is when does the bond market become too crowded, which would then lead to capital flows out of the bond market and into more attractive asset classes - such as stocks? Once interest rates start to rise, we should start seeing gold decline as well. I've been wrong for quite some time about gold though. My theory is that gold should see a very steep decline once the economic recovery takes place as investors will want to be in higher-yielding asset classes. Though we're on the brink of recovery, gold still hasn't sold off. I personally don't think inflation is high enough, but that's just me since I like things OTT. According to Oxford Economics & World Bank, US inflation was at 9.1% in 1975, declining to 3.6% in 1985, 2.8% in 1995, and finally 2.9% in 2007. That's hardly anything to be fraidy cat about.
I hate the way my portfolio has been performing lately. I think it's slowing down relative to the rest of the market, so I'm adding some more high beta stuff to it. Out with the BNHNA and on with the LEHMQ... I contradicted myself again. So what's new?
Some time back, I got on my high horse and said I would never touch common stock of a bankrupt company - not even with an eighteen foot pole - or was it a twenty eight foot pole?
Anyway, I sold BNHNA at about a 14% loss and got into LEHMQ. I think there will be more speculation with LEHMQ over the short term, which could cause the stock to move really fast. Whilst it is really difficult to determine the exact value of LEHMQ, it hit $0.73 back in December 2009, which indicates that there is demand out there for this stock. This is a position I want to hold for at least several months.
Additionally, I got out of BX and jumped into more C. There are a ton of call options from the $3-6 range, which shows me the short-sellers from before are now in a protective brace position. It's hard to tell how fast the stock will move. It could turn out to be like AMD though. I'm sure C will be a very heroic FTP one day, but only if I don't implement some old-fashioned self-sabotage along the way.
BNHNA served me some breakfast in bed: burnt toast. Meanwhile, IPG has me burning with fury because apparently, it could have become a trendship with benefits. It's up +8.53% so far. Why didn't I move my stop instead of just getting out?
Where's the fort?
Apparently, I missed the boat.