Long & Wrong...

My poor portfolio! It closed out the week:

-1.10% on standard brokerage
-1.06% on Roth IRA

Harry Winston really broke my heart on Friday… -6%.

On the way up, I allowed my emotions to get the better of me. I bought into a Bimbo’s Rally and I bought too much. I became almost as greedy as the PIIGS. But is it really a Bimbo’s Rally? DJIA did not break below 10,000 yet, but USD/CHF seems poised to decline. This is very precarious in my opinion. If USD/CHF really starts declining, then this indicates to me that capital is flowing out of USD into what is deemed a safe haven currency. So the sell-off in US equities would be real and not just related to profit-taking or investor uncertainty. I don’t know too much about currency outflows, but if I’m correct, then this means that investors are basically closing the door. Mind the gap, like they say in the UK.

However, there is MACD bullish divergence on the 15 minute DJIA chart. The most important economic data coming out of the US this week is unemployment and NFPs on Friday. I’m ignoring all the manufacturing data and looking at the single most important factor that would really indicate to us are we looking at a speedier recovery six months from now or is unemployment going to continue to drag the economy down?

We might have to sit through another week of range-bound action and it’ll put a lot of investors in a highly anxious mood and potentially bring DJIA down to break the 10,000 level. If this happens, I’m sure I won’t be the only one crying a river. But I’ll feel your pain. Yes, I will.

What will indicate to us whether we’re really long and wrong? The profit potential in US equities has probably been insufficient for larger investors during this 10-month rally, so if this sell-off is really a bluff – meaning people are taking profit at an intermediate top, scaring out the weaker longs, and then buying back larger quantities again at lower prices, then we’ll all get played like... yes, air piano again! A USD/CHF breakdown, however, would disprove that theory and tell us to hit the parachute. Not literally, though. Any smart guy should know that if they want to break up with me, all they need to do is mention that I go skydiving, backpacking, skiing, or any other such activity with them and I’m out the door. Go yourself, thank you…

But who’s driving here? When we’re trading, we’re the only ones behind the steering wheel. There might be back seat drivers (am I really?) everywhere crying out for us to buy this or sell that, but ultimately we’re the ones driving. And whether our portfolios become a Porsche or a Toyota is really up to us.

In order to keep my sanity, I have to be setting some new standards for my trading.

I either have to say, from now on I will set aside some cash for longer term positions and set aside some cash for short term positions, or if I’m really unsure about the fundamentals of a stock, I have to get out. The problem with me is that I get into a short term position, but once it turns too quickly against me, it becomes a long term position indefinitely. I need to be moving faster.

I’m also looking to offset my stock market pain with some forex trading gain. But I’m looking at February and March to start building some longer term positions in fx.

Even though I didn’t take profit on at least a 10% overall portfolio gain and got into some other stocks at the wrong time (BX, AA, IPG), I don’t regret my portfolio rebalancing. I learned a very important lesson. There are some stocks that just don’t move and unfortunately have nowhere to go but down. So, we have to free that money and keep trying to put our money in stocks or other investments that are going to move. Even if we have to say, you know, we were long and wrong with this one.

I am going to have to keep trying, although I was ready to say: go on without me, Happy Shiny Forex Traders. But then, over the weekend, I got the very expensive idea of owning a yacht, or even any sort of luxury boat would do. I want one with a steamy hot sauna cabin that’s smokin’ hotter than my portfolio. I know… my shopaholism just keeps getting worse.

I Am Worried... Do I Look At the Long Term or Go For the Short Term?

This market really isn't looking that hot. Such good news on GDP, such good news with MSFT and AMZN and yet very little upwards sustainability. Not for the sectors I'm really into anyway. BAC hasn't moved much, which shows me that anyone who is short isn't all that scared. It couldn't even stay above yesterday's high. Oil has been retreating somewhat.

Getting out of DFS turned out to be a bit of a mistake. AA hasn't moved much for me either and BX turned out to be an even bigger disaster.

Money seems to be flowing from financials into healthcare. It has been for a few days. The question is who is buying? We would need to see a retracement in healthcare stocks for the money to flow back into other sectors unless new capital is being injected into the market. I suspect after tax refunds come in, we'll see another peak higher.

My options now are to get out of HWD and a partial position in BAC whilst I've still got a profit on those positions, or to stay the course.

The thought of the market breaking below DJIA 10,000 has me very frightened. I think I officially bought into the proverbial Bimbo's Rally.

But if I jump out of C or BAC now, I might be killing my portfolio recovery prospects. And I love Harry Winston way too much.

Thankfully, I'm off for the weekend, so I can't watch the market as it closes the week. Let's hope I'm just being a fraidy cat and that there really isn't much to worry about. But even I am starting to doubt it.

I'm More Upbeat...

Even though DJIA closed on a very sad bring out the violin sort of note, Amazon and Microsoft surprised the market with some more upbeat earnings results.

Who cares about Bernanke when AMZN and MSFT are doing so spectacular?

After hours trading sees AMZN and MSFT both up slightly. I noticed a bit more upwards movement in some of my stocks in after hours trading as well, including BAC and AA. Nothing worthy of couch-jumping, but I think I'll be able to sleep tonight.

If BX didn't have such a good dividend, I'd be out of the trade already.

Sweet dreams involving lots of price action of the upwards variety please...

Timber!

So are they throwing the Bernanke out with the bath water or not? DJIA closed in major negative territory. My portfolio didn't really do much - down slightly.

Why do they tantalise people like that? Now we have to wait till God knows when before the market moves in a single file upwards again.

This was my favourite quote: "Bernanke fiddled while our markets burned," said Senator Richard Shelby...

Oh, yes he did! My portfolio was in a fever - one that only Dr Harry Winston could cure...

As Kylie Minogue would say: "So tell me what do you prescribe for these symptoms... A heart beating faster and work is a disaster..."

Asset Allocation Fun!

I've always been terrible at math. When I was six, my Dad was helping me with my homework. He was so frustrated that I didn't get addition and subtraction back then - not that I'm very good with it now. Anyway, I still remember having to literally count beans to learn basic math. The memory of it brings me to tears. Having to do math still makes me feel dumb.

So, the following might be a bit bimbo. I finally kind of get it after three decades.

I was just thinking this morning… technically if I have $3000 and I spend it on a stock that is $3 and purchase more shares of that stock vs. a stock that is currently $18, each $1 increase in share price is worth more with the $3 stock. Exactly how much is it worth? I think about 6 times more! Each $1 increase in the $3 stock is worth a $6 increase in the $18 stock. Isn’t it? Yes, it is! Of course, the proverbial double edged sword effect is also going to apply when a downwards move occurs.

So, I'm now going to pay more attention to quality stocks that have a very low entry price.

Nothing Short of Spectacular...

After a few days of annoying retracements, today was nothing short of spectacular!

-0.33% on the standard brokerage account
+1.59% on the Roth IRA

Plus, I also won an item on eBay! I know it's not a real auction, but I'm so excited about it. I won a miniature marble replica of the Antonio Canova Eros & Psyche statue on exhibit at the Louvre. I know I've gotten a lot of replica art lately and maybe it's hypocritical of me since I keep saying I hate replicas, but this is too beautiful and too romantic not to want a replica of. I'd love a full size one in my living room if I become fabulously rich after C starts skyrocketing like mad!

On another note, if I'm here digging my own grave instead of digging some gold with my stock market buying spree, do send me a comment here...

But I think I'll still be in a buying mood even if this is the proverbial Bimbo's Rally. I feel my portfolio's in a good place. I now like all of the companies in my portfolio. Whether they actually start performing is another issue.

Oh, Happy Shiny Forex Traders! We'll all make it some day!!

Amen! Thank the Lord!

We got some lights, camera, price action after FOMC. The next wild card is Obama's State of the Union address.

I was on the verge of a nervous breakdown today. I thought maybe we would get back to Lehman style hysteria once again. This post could easily have been: Nurse ForexDiva Requires Resuscitation from Dr McDreamy & BandAid for Trading Ego the Size of Belgium or something equally dramatic. My portfolio was clearly in critical condition.

We'd have to wait for the market close to see if we've really weathered another storm. But I feel a bit less anxious after the Fed confirmed that interest rates will stay low for an "extended period." That is good news for my BAC, C, and potentially BX. It would also make sense that since so many Fair Weather Friends on Capitol Hill own BAC, that Obama's proposed financial regulatory overhaul might not actually gather up enough momentum to be enacted as legislature.

I am going to keep adding to C. It might be painful for a bit, but if I get this position right, the potential reward may be worth the temporary discomfort.

I hope this is one step forward for Divakind! The long term is what matters...

Obama's War On Capitalism: Where Wall Street Is the Axis of Evil

I expect some more portfolio drama today... FOMC rate decision + Obama State of the Union = double whammy. I am feeling so jittery, especially after noticing that DJIA is hovering near the key psychological level of 10,000. Just one more bad session could potentially put more investors in a panic.

When will people realise that Wall Street and Main Street are but two sides of the same coin? If the financial infrastructure of an economy fails, what hope is there for any sort of recovery? It is an economic civil war we do not want to be fighting.

Yes, Wall Street has been portrayed as the Axis of Evil in this financial saga, but rather than waging a war on capitalism, what has happened to the war on poverty? Or the war on drugs? And the war on incompetence?

Er, speaking of incompetence... on the portfolio rebalancing front, I sold DFS in exchange for AA. I took a small loss of about 4% on this DFS trade. I feared that I had purchased another second runner up. I know potentially what I could be getting into.

DFS has a high EPS, low P/E, and positive ROE. I am exchanging DFS for a company with a negative EPS, negative ROE, and huge debt commitments. However, if the financial sector is sinking, I could be looking at a painful downhill slide. DFS could get sold even though it's got a strong balance sheet. Commodities, on the other hand, might make a solid comeback.

AA still has a negative EPS, but it's got a Price/Sales ratio of 0.72, which means that revenues are higher than market cap. Even if the Chinese economy slows down, if AA's market cap reaches parity with revenues again, I'm looking at a minimum gain of 45%. A stock does not need to have positive EPS to increase in value. Rather, sometimes, the anticipation of EPS growth is more enticing than actual EPS results.

This, by the way, is the top secret mining company of choice I was referring to.

If I know anything about miners in general, it's that they have huge bargaining power. So, hopefully I've made a good choice.

Oh, C!

Why can't I ever get it right with C?? It's a high volume stock, so it must be a crowded market requiring a lot of patience. I would need a box of Kleenex if it gets to $1 again, but I'll still buy. I'll cry, but I'll buy. The more I think about it, the more I feel that each stock must be treated like a different market.

Today's hot air led to:

-1.44% on Roth IRA
-1.26% on standard brokerage account

And I thought it would go straight up!

Even my dearest Harry Winston couldn't save the day. I have to learn to keep my trading legs closed. I'll be the biggest market slut ever if I don't develop some discipline.

This position is either going to get really exciting fairly soon or bring me to my knees!

Wow, if I have to do some more portfolio rebalancing, this isn't going to be easy. It'll be like being caught between a rock and a hard place. If C can stay above $3, the call options at $4 greatly outnumber the put options at $4. The $3-4 range is a hot spot in terms of options for C and I think it'll have to test $4 at some point because there's so much interest there. If I'm wrong, we could be looking at $2-3 range for some time.

Flat on my face kind of ouch!

I'm So Into C...

I was going to buy my new top secret mining company of choice, but then, a tiny voice inside me whispered: risk to reward with C is much better. I could get a lot more volume for the same amount of risk. It goes back to the five car parking lot idea. With this position, I could park a lot more shares in the same amount of space, if you will.

This morning, I realised that I now have a few different strategies for getting to six figures before the end of the year. However, I neglected to implement some strategies for recovering all my trading losses to date. I didn't run the numbers on how to recover my trading losses. A 36% gain with my top secret mining company of choice is nice, but isn't a 100% or 200% gain even better?

From the risk:reward perspective, C is still very attractive - Obama and all. So I did it!

I know I should be diversifying. I know! But when the risk:reward is this good...

Yes... Yes... Yes!!!

Yes!! The UK economy is finally out of recession!! Congrats to the Guys of London!!

Speaking of guys... how the little guy ruined Wall Street...

That's a bit rough there, David Weidner. Didn't get to buy at the market lows, did you?

Oil has headed further south today, so I'm doing my best to keep my trading legs closed for my top secret equity of choice purchase. I might be able to get in at an even better price. How good can it get? After looking at some options chains, I put in a limit order that is way below market price. Let's see if it goes through. And if not and price holds, I'll have to get in at market.

Surprise Us, Rusty!

Rusty's potential surprises for 2010...

Yes... Yes... No?!

Oh, dear! My portfolio closed just where I didn't want it to - with a retracement. Talk about short of expectations!

The gains are so minor, it was like the rally never happened.

I wonder if I should be doing something else with my account instead of just nursing positions all the time. When I first started trading, I kept moving my money from stock to stock, taking very small gains. I might have to start doing that with at least a part of my capital later in the year. Once the market starts ranging, we'll need to compensate for a lack of price action with more frequent trading.

I have to say it may be difficult to find stocks that will straightaway increase a few hundred percent in this environment. I'm wondering if I'm not doing enough homework here. However, I do know the biggest buying opportunity of our lifetime has probably already passed us by. Perhaps there'll be another prime stock market sale in another decade!

I'm so torn between adding more to C and buying my new top secret stock of choice...

Work It, DJIA!

But someone tell me that they're going to throw the Bernanke out with the bath water? That would be my ultimate dream come true.

Finally, my standard brokerage account is +0.59% and my Roth IRA is +0.69%! When the tide rises, the whole market moves. But after last week's declines, my portfolio's far from smokin'. I want a passionate portfolio! I think lukewarm won't do now, especially since my portfolio's still far from recovery.

There isn't that much follow through with DFS price action. It seems people sold on the "good news" that Discover is entering a strategic alliance with BC Cards. This tells me that I might have to get out soon if it doesn't hold its own above today's high. The question is how long I have to wait.

Since I have to wait for some cash to settle from my BAC sale last week, I can't get into my new top secret stock of choice yet. However, it isn't moving too much, so hopefully I'll be able to buy it at a good price. With this one, since it's a mining company, I'm going to have to pay attention to oil prices. If oil declines, I might wait to buy it and get in at an even better price.

I Did My Own Homework This Weekend...

And I noticed some companies with a Price/Sales ratio that is below 1 with positive EPS in this market, which means I want to buy again!

IPG is one of them and depending on whether I actually get to buy the other one, I'll disclose it here. I'm looking at a 36% gain if market cap reaches parity with earnings. What's not to like with that stock?

Sadly, BX wasn't one of them, so I might have totally bought it at the wrong time. I think I got lucky with DFS though. Hopefully the market will be in a better mood today.

For now, I have to get back to work, work, work!

Obama, You're No Robin Hood!

I agree with AdAge that you're not living up to your, ahem, marketing.

Two words: job creation!

Gen X & Y: The Next Sandwich Generations?

This is a topic that the politically correct world would never bring up. But I'm politically incorrect, so here goes. You can also skip all my je ne sais blah and get to the moral of the story in the last few paragraphs...

In addition to my Harry Winston nightmares, I also had nightmares about leaving my family behind whilst I was carrying my Hermes Kelly handbag. This has been a recurring nightmare for me for some time. I've had similar dreams in the past, even before I actually went out and technically purchased a Hermes Kelly. I know I have to do something about this financial guilt whilst at the same time not compromising my own financial future.

My financial vulnerability started when my Dad's business collapsed. It changed him as a person and I doubt he ever really recovered. Looking back, I grew up in an environment where failure was acceptable. My Dad has lost a fortune at least three times and I have been afraid on some level of doing something similar. So, when I entered the workforce, I found myself suddenly entering a world where success was the norm. It was exhilarating yet a bit frightening. According to me, everything needed to be perfect and failure was not an option. As my income grew, I found myself shouldering a lot of the financial responsibility in my family and finally, I had to say enough is enough recently.

2009 is the first year I actually focused on my own financial goals for a change. In an ideal world, we wouldn't have to choose between money or family. But if it isn't money or family, sometimes the battle could be between what you want vs. what your family wants you to want. So, I think it's practically one and the same.

Anyway, I think most people in the Gen X and Gen Y demographic wouldn't need to think about this since so many are luckily trust fund babies. For the unfortunate few, myself included, who do have to think about this, Gen X and Gen Y could be the next Sandwich Generation. We could, at one point, find ourselves suddenly trying to shoulder the responsibility of raising a family and then at some point trying to care for our parents as well.
Bummer, to say the least. And here I was thinking I could retire in a few years due to my beautiful Le Grand Plan. But alas, out comes Obama from left field and the US equities markets are once again temporarily out of service.

To get back to this very serious topic of becoming the next Sandwich Generation, I haven't actually come up with a solution yet. However, I was thinking annuities could be one option. It wouldn't be an ideal solution, but perhaps it could be worth exploring. Another thing to seriously consider is long term care insurance.

Some more reading:

Prepare yourself now to help care for parents later


Monthly Checks for Life: 5 Rules for Immediate Annuities


Income for Life: 7 Best Annuities


From what I can see, $0.5 million in savings will only yield a very mediocre lifestyle for a couple in retirement.

What's Your Level of Desperation?

I love negotiating - other than shopping, that is. Last December, my colleague and I were discussing negotiation strategies and he wanted to know why I had gotten such an incredible deal on an advertising programme in early 2009. I explained to him that at that time, the market conditions were different and the market was much more desperate back then. It would be close to impossible to get a deal like that today even if you're the best negotiator in the world. Obviously you need to be a good negotiator in the first place in order to be able to get to a good deal, so congrats again to my trading ego. However, the desperation level of the seller must also be very high in order for this to happen.

During my visit to New York in December, I also saw first hand that the US economy has improved. How did I know? I remembered seeing a sign that said: "Recession Special... $1.00" back in May 2009 in some fast food place. In December 2009, I noticed they had put up a new sign that now read: "Recession Special... Save $1.00." The difference is big. It means even mass marketers have started becoming less desperate.

That was the main reason for my recent equity market buying spree.

I have been in a bit of a panic this weekend. I finally ended the week with my standard brokerage account down -1.17% and my Roth IRA down -3.11%. My Roth IRA had a lot of BAC. I kept thinking to myself: what if I end up holding a hot potato again? What if I'm the only one left standing in the game of musical chairs? What if...? You get the point.

I had nightmares about Harry Winston and I kept thinking: what if I had done this or that? Would it have been any different? Though I'm still in some bit of semi-denial, after running the numbers, I can clearly see I am still about 2% better off at Friday's market close than I was 22 days ago. But my biggest mistake was being too greedy. I had thought the recession is finally over and that investor confidence had returned full force.

I suppose the good news is that I still have some cash even with my IPG and DFS purchases. Since I'm uncertain and definitely jittery, I am going to hold off on further buying until the market gets clearer direction on Obama's idiotic proposals. The biggest problem with a panic is that once investors start seeing dramatic declines and fear starts being the predominant market force, even sectors that aren't affected by the proposed banking regulations will experience selling pressure.

I am also wondering how desperate the market will get now. For me, I am a lot less desperate than before because even though I am not yet financially free at the moment, I've travelled a long road and there are but a few more steps. The light at the end of the tunnel is finally becoming brighter for me so I am not going to sell myself short this time.

I Don't Know If I Should Be Regretting This?

Back when Lehman happened, I spent some time trying to catch falling knives as well. HWD turned out to be one of the knives I caught.

The question now is how scared should everyone be about Obama's idiotic proposals?

And is this going to be as bad as Lehman?

I was careful with MS and BAC (partially), but once I had some cash, I wanted to trade.

Should I have just kept my trading legs closed? Earlier in the week, I was congratulating myself on having some sort of trading discipline when I didn't do a USD/CHF short since it hadn't broken out yet. I saved 100 pips because of that.

But now, the prevailing mood in the market is obviously sell, sell, sell. So I am trading against the trend. Moreover, does DFS have too much idle cash? TIF just announced a share buy back programme and a dividend increase when it has far more debt than cash. I think DFS should do a share buy back and dividend increase too. It's got enough cash.

Poor BAC! Even with all the Fair Weather Friends on Capitol Hill owning BAC shares, it still got killed.

A Warm Welcome To IPG & DFS...

Another sad day for my portfolio. My standard brokerage account is surprisingly +0.31%, but my Roth IRA is -1.82%.

I took this as an opportunity to add IPG (Interpublic Group) and DFS (Discover Financial Services Company) to my Roth IRA.

IPG is something I want to keep in my portfolio when the broader economic recovery actually happens. It has a lot of room for topline growth. WPPGY, an industry peer, has a $12 billion market cap whilst IPG only has $3 billion even with almost double the amount of outstanding shares. The advertising industry is going to see growth again at some point and when it does, IPG will definitely be a beneficiary. If WPPGY sees a pullback, I'd like to be a buyer as well. At some point, there will be some more consolidation in the advertising industry and IPG may become an acquisition target - hopefully to Sir Martin Sorrell. The advertising industry runs on inspiration and innovation, and IPG has enough cash to weather a second storm, if one is actually coming.

DFS is trading near book value. It has 6 times more cash than debt and $19.944 of cash per share, which makes it one of the stronger companies in the financial services sector.

I might be catching a falling knife, but for the longer term, I heart IPG and DFS.

Rise & Shine

This morning, I didn't really want to wake up. I was so tired from the dramatic decline of my darling portfolio, which has been the light in my life for a good few weeks. Did it really happen? Did I really lose so much in a day? Did I really allow my head to get too big for my Miss Equities 2010 crown?

Well, I've done much worse in the past and I thought to myself the only thing worse than having a small account and a small brain is having a big account and a small brain with an ultra large trading ego.

Know why your brain is so small (i.e. your worst trading mistakes ever) and learn how to control these factors. Your brain won't get bigger, but your account might.

For me, it's a battle between Inner Fraidy Cat vs. Trading Ego the Size of Belgium.

So, rise and shine! Especially my dear, sweet Harry Winston - the star of my very own portfolio drama!

Whoa... Wayne's World, Party Time!

Jesus! -4.91% on the Roth IRA and -3.29% on the standard brokerage account.

I'm kind of glad I heeded my inner fraidy cat, but my stops weren't smart enough again. I took 32% of my cash out over the past few days, which just goes to show how little cash I had. However, I am going to be much smarter about this money.

Some of the regional banks are the clear beneficiaries so far, but is that necessarily the right way to go? I think cash is still His Majesty the King and the smaller regional banks tend to have a lot more debt than cash.

This weekend, I'm going to have to do a lot more thinking. When you've got a small brain and a small account, you have to spend a lot more energy analysing your next plan of action.

I'm thinking: undervalued + overlooked as well as substantial cash holdings, which translates to not being at the mercy of their bankers. Another plus would be not requiring a lot of cash to sustain the business. Do I live in LalaLand? Not quite. It's DivaLand!

No Need to Wait Four Years... I Regret Voting for Obama Today!

Yes, right this very moment. I regret it with my heart and soul! And this is what happens when you get too greedy... -4.67% on the Roth IRA and -2.71% on the standard brokerage account so far. I've got to do some damage control because this has the potential of being far from just a minor wardrobe malfunction if I let it get out of hand. Run for cover!

I got out of some more BAC on my standard brokerage account. At this point, I don't mind if I find out tomorrow that I've been played like air piano because if this was all a facade, then I could get back in soon enough. How bad could this get? How fast should one run away from an undercover socialist regime? I'll wait a few minutes before the market closes to see if I should get back in again...

I've still got enough BAC in my Roth IRA and there will be opportunities.

In fact, why not look at the opportunities in other sectors of the economy that this could open up? I'm going to think long and hard about that.

This is what they call being penny wise and pound foolish, our dear Obama.

Do Not Despair, Harry Winston... Nurse ForexDiva Is Here!

There, there, Harry Winston! There's no need to be in such a mood. ForexDiva's here and I'll cheer you up. You're just having a minor wardrobe malfunction with the -5.71% movement. Nothing that a little dose of APKS (Agent Provocateur fill in the blank) won't be able to fix.

There's no need to drag my standard brokerage account down -1.85%.

The Roth IRA, on the other hand, is +0.87% today...

Competition makes the heart grow fonder, so step up the smokin' hotness, Harry Winston, and meet your new competition: BX and BAC. MS is most likely going back in my Roth IRA over the next few days.

You're still my favourite and don't you know it!

BAC's Case for Equities: Risk Appetite At 4-Year High...

BofA Merrill Lynch Fund Manager Survey Finds Risk Appetite at Four-Year High as Investors Embrace Equities

I hope I bought the right ones!!

Out With the MS, In With the C...

I have been sitting on pins and needles over the past few days, wondering how good (or bad) my new position in MS would be. It turned out good enough, with just a few days in the trade. Factoring in the commissions, I was about +1.38% on the position and considering that earnings are due out tomorrow, 20 January 2010, I didn't want to be tied to any unpleasant surprises if MS comes out short of expectations. Moreover, I really want to deposit that money into my Roth IRA before tax season hits. Since I'm also getting ready to nurse C now, I'm out of MS completely and will be getting into some more C over the next week. I plan to add lots of C, BAC, and maybe BX to my Roth IRA. Depending on how MS reacts, I might get back into it at some point in the near future. It wasn't anything personal, MS.

Aside from the real estate recovery theory, I really like BX from the marketing standpoint. The company's got personality and spirit! However, not much cash... and debt exceeds cash by 38%, so I'm not going get into a very big position. It is still 22% above book value and since there are still companies trading below book value in this market, I'm going to look for those even if it means more research. At the moment, I'm in a small position with BX and if there are good buying opportunities, especially if it should fall below book value, then I'll nurse it some more.

My priorities for now are still C and BAC, both trading below book value with lots of room for market cap growth.

So far, the standard brokerage account is +1.39% and the Roth IRA's +0.27%...

If this were my dating style, I'd be considered a slut, wouldn't I?

My Very First Hermes Kelly: A Diva's First Instinct Is Still A Credit Card?

I had a fun Saturday. I visited my local Hermes boutique and spent forever there, adding another two beautiful Hermes scarves to my collection. So welcome to Winter Walk and New Springs. This makes it three Hermes scarves in one week, or five Hermes scarves in less than five weeks, bringing my overall collection to ten. Yes, we can (shop)!

Although I used cash to finance these scarves, I am now also technically the owner of a Hermes Kelly handbag in the classic Sellier style in black box leather with palladium hardware. Here's the story...

The appeal of purchasing a Hermes handbag is partially the exclusivity and partially the bespoke aspect - having something completely custom made to your exact specifications and having to actually wait for it. But when I stepped into Hermes and saw this perfect Kelly handbag, which was the absolute perfect size for me, I knew I had to have it. Since I (a) don't have the cash saved up yet, (b) didn't want to wait 12 months for a handbag, (c) would have the money in a few months anyway, I (d) summed up the courage to ask them to set this fabulous Kelly aside for me for a few months rather than turning to my first instinct of presenting them with a shiny credit card. This turned out to be my formula for shopping success!

So, before I turn one and thirty, I will not only be financially free, but will also have the most perfectly fabulous Hermes Kelly ever!!

Usually, people first buy the Hermes Birkin before getting a Hermes Kelly, but I really don't mind. It was absolute love at first sight with this Hermes Kelly...

I'm excited beyond words. Now I'm going to be dreaming about this bag and being on the Hermes Kelly diet for a few months. It'll totally be worth it though. The matching Hermes Kelly Wallet will have to wait till about summer time. This is the (only?) good thing about not having a boyfriend. You don't have to explain to him why you spent so much on a handbag or listen to him justify why a Porsche is worth it while your Hermes Kelly isn't. What's up with the double standard anyway? It's like I won't question your Porsche if you don't question my Kelly.

Anyway, this is total bliss, oh, bliss!!

Yes, More Portfolio Rebalancing!

My portfolio has been diva positive this week, but not today! And I was just dreaming of being in the Guinness Book of World Records for most amazing portfolio recovery... What? I've always admitted to the gigantic trading ego.

-1.41% on my standard brokerage account and -2.21% on my Roth IRA so far...

I did some more portfolio rebalancing. Yes, again! I added MS to my account and I think I got in at a good price. MS has a lot of cash - about $489 per share. It is trading about 12% above its book value. To get into this position, I sold part of my BAC shares at about a 5-6% profit and combined the capital from my partial NYX sale with the partial BAC sale.

I hope I'm making my portfolio a lot more exciting, although I have doubts about whether I should be as bullish as I am on the financial sector. Getting into the financial crisis, I was really heavy into financial sector stocks. So, my philosophy is that getting out of the crisis, this will be my route to quick and magnificent portfolio recovery.

I'm still thinking my portfolio needs a bit more balance, but if I'm right, then my portfolio should recover much faster than if I add some low beta stuff to weigh it down. I need stocks that move really fast and so far, the high beta has only done my portfolio good.

BX and MS - hopefully my new heroes of the highest calibre!

Blackstone's Byron Wien: The Surprises of 2010

Interesting to say the least...

Leading Cause of Global Warming...

Hopefully my portfolio will be the leading cause of global warming soon - and not just from hot air. I rebalanced my Roth IRA today, exchanging some shares in C and the proceeds from my Tribune Company bonds for some BX shares. I did well on the Tribune Company bonds, making more than 300%. But since it was a small position, the profit itself wasn't substantial. I also sold part of my NYX position and am going to evaluate what to do with this capital over the next few days. Should I use it towards PDO or should I contribute it to my Roth IRA?

I want to build up a larger position in BX over the short term. I now have a good position in BAC, C, and HWD - as everyone on earth knows. I think BX should be very profitable for me if the recovery in commercial real estate starts gathering momentum.

So it's full smokin' hot steam ahead!

Bair Witch Project

Call me bimbo, but I still don't get why WaMu had to be shut down by the FDIC. Yes, even after all this time. And since I hold grudges, I haven't taken a particular liking to Sheila Bair. Now, I think I've got more reason to dislike her.

If someone's being bullied, they can blame the bully. And clearly the bully is wrong. However, do they ever stop to think that by allowing the bullying to go on, they are actually acquiescing to the bullying?

So, why can't the Fair Weather Friends on Capitol Hill admit their mistakes as well?

Because as wrong as the bankers were, the FWFs on CH were just as wrong.

What's Capitalism With A Heart?

+1.22% on my standard brokerage account and +1.09% on my Roth IRA.

Now Roth IRAs were developed with capitalism in mind!

I hope the tears are over for my portfolio - that is, if Harry Winston would stop tantalising me! How could Bulgari have a higher market cap than Harry Winston? Harry's got his own diamond mine - well, partially anyway!

I'm still looking for some new trading ideas to balance out the high beta dynamite in my portfolio!

Socialism Is Like Everywhere?

I was absolutely appalled when I visited NYT.com this morning. Unfortunately, I have to bring up Sarah Palin and refer to them as the liberal elite media. Apparently, they agree with the Fair Weather Friends on Capitol Hill about taxing the banks. I think it's not just socialist, but financial discrimination and definitely financial hypocrisy! The Fed had a windfall due to this crisis as well.

I knew Obama was an undercover socialist!

What's next? A Chanel tax?

I think we should bring back capitalism with a heart! Four years from now, when McCain is still alive, we will be cursing ourselves for basing our votes on age discrimination!

The Masterpieces of John Tremblay & Dale Chihuly

I'm usually not into contemporary art, but I actually found some of John Tremblay's art appealing. He's the second contemporary artist who would get the ForexDiva Seal of Approval besides Dale Chihuly, whose glass sculptures I absolutely adore.

This one's OK, but I was reading Florida Design and noticed a fantastic one that I wish I could buy right now! It was white, very subtle, with some purple and green.

So does a lot depend on my portfolio recovery? That's a resounding yes!

My Dear, We're Slow Dancing In A Burning Room!

Yes, my portfolio's really, really red today... my standard brokerage account is -3.49% and my Roth IRA is -2.53%. I don't feel so smart today. Was I ever?

So this is what happens when a high beta portfolio gets moodier than Moody's.

I'm still better off than I was 12 days ago, so hopefully this is not the end of my portfolio recovery.

So much of my portfolio depends on BAC, C, and HWD. It's the proverbial double edged sword again!

Why doesn't the market think Harry Winston is worth a $1 billion market cap? TIF's book value is approximately 53% higher than HWD and yet TIF's market cap stands at more than 6 times greater than HWD. I think I'm either looking at an undervalued gem with HWD or TIF's due for a correction. If TIF does drop a lot, I'd like to buy though and if HWD goes any further south, I'm in for some tears.

OMG, Chandler Bing!

I'm probably going to be as annoying as Janice from Friends, but that's OK because my standard brokerage account is +0.98% and my Roth IRA is +1.73% thus far...

So, at what point does this stop being smokin' hot? I wish it was like this all the time.

I don't mind... the pleasure's all mine today! Harry Winston totally hit $12.87 today and that remains my favourite position of all time. Is that as close to $1 billion market cap it'll get, or will it break past the magical moment of $13.05 and get even more enchanting?

I've started thinking about the different markets I trade and strategising on when to move money from one market to another. I'm thinking the majority of my cash has to be in the market that's about to move the most. This is another good step forward for me. I'm looking at my trading from the bird's eye view now and that is going to help so much with my profitability. I just need to anticipate different scenarios happening though because trading doesn't always go according to plan. So I want to be prepared.

And I want to keep it ultra exciting!

Good News, Bad News... The Highs and Lows of ForexDiva

First, the bad news... I just calculated all my losses from my stocks, bonds, forex trading, tuition from attending university, and shopping and it's far from pretty - six figures. My actual losses from all my trading is five figures, something I think I can recover fairly soon if I keep doing the right thing.

Now, the good news! How exciting is this? Over the past eight days, both my portfolios increased by about 9.7% through my portfolio rebalancing efforts. Is it just luck or am I actually doing something right for once?

Maybe it's a combination of both. I wouldn't mind doing this more often. I am quite certain I would still be complaining about my portfolio if I hadn't taken action.

Wow, exchanging frogs for princes is pretty amazing. But Citi may still have some more frog days before it becomes Prince Alpha Male Charming again.

Today's Prince Alpha Male Charming? Harry Winston!!! HWD was up +10.05% today. Nothing short of amazing / fabulous / intense / smokin' hot... you get the picture.

To end the week, my standard brokerage account was +1.59% and my Roth IRA was -0.81%.

Correction on Bulgari Emerald & Diamond Necklace...

It seems those emeralds on the amazing Bulgari emerald and diamond necklace aren't unpolished. They seem to be tumbled emeralds, which means they are semi-processed.

Still beautiful though...

And here's some more fabulous diamond and emerald jewellery from FT... I do disagree with the article that emeralds are more fabulous than diamonds. Diamonds are definitely a diva's best friend - especially of the fair weather variety!

I have so much to learn about High Jewellery and hopefully by the time I'm able to actually afford it, I'll know much more about this fascinating subject!

It Had To Happen Some Day...

My portfolio's not that smokin' today! -0.12% so far on my standard brokerage account and -1.01% on my Roth IRA. I think it'll get redder at around market close. C and BAC are moody today and I'm stuck here nursing these two positions. I have to tell myself the long term is what matters! Otherwise, I'm going to kill two potential five figure positions.

HWD is doing a good job helping to offset some of the decline. +4.66% so far. I wonder if it'll get to $13.05 over the short term, which would bring its market capitalisation to $1 billion. I have even higher hopes for HWD.

I do need to look for other stocks to invest in. I can't be too concentrated in high beta. Just a bit of balance is necessary since people are still talking about a second wave of panic potentially occurring. However, unless C or another big player is going down, I don't think we'll see a very substantial pullback. There wasn't much of a panic with CIT or Dubai, so what else could happen besides Bernanke splashing some cold water about every once in a while?

Should I be such a fraidy cat then?

Cold Water...

I hope Bernanke's not going to splash some cold water on my portfolio any time soon!

My portfolio's only starting to recover, which means in spite of my rose coloured glasses, it's still down in the double digits. So, we've still got a long way to go!

But I'm convinced I did the right thing by diverting the remaining capital from my ABK double band-aid (shares and bonds), CPB shares, AMD shares, ED shares, etc. into BAC and C.

I've already recovered the losses on my CPB and ABK shares. If this uptrend continues, I stand to recover the losses on my ABK bonds. And if C goes according to plan, I could be six figures fairly soon.

So, Bernanke, don't go raining on anyone's parade, s'il vous plait!

Now that I'm starting to undo my earlier investing mistakes, I've also got to start implementing growth strategies simultaneously. The stupider you've been in the past, the smarter you have to be in the future. And I've been bimbo! Sigh.

I'm Going To Be Totally Immodest, So Where's That Steam Coming From?

From my portfolio, of course! It's smokin' hot...

+2.77% on my standard brokerage account so far...

And +2.81% on my Roth IRA...

The market's far from being closed, so this might change.

Oh, please don't stop! LOL. A few more days of this would be bliss, but the fraidy cat in me is already somewhat concerned.

Now I'm wondering if I should be taking partial profit on BAC or should I continue to ride this trend? Wait... I've been here before and last time, I got played like air piano by BAC, it was because I got out of the trade straight away. So, this time I have to control my self-sabotage and at least set a relatively safe stop and hope to be taken to new heights in terms of more upwards price action and way more profits.

Still, a part of me is wondering how it could be so easy. A part of my BAC position is +11% in less than two weeks.

I kind of wish it would always be like this, so am noting down everything I could have possibly done right on this trade so that I can attempt it again in the near future.

Keep doing your own homework because if you fall asleep in this market, you could wake up and find yourself having a very bad dream!

ForexDiva Awards 2010

Welcome to the First Annual ForexDiva Awards, where being fashionably late is the trend you call your friend.


Cutest Fitting Room Ever

Whilst I was doing my Christmas shopping, I noticed two guys smiling outside the Victoria’s Secret in SoHo. I thought, well that gift was obviously meant more for the guy than the girl. A few days later, I found myself in need of some holiday cheer, so decided, well if Victoria’s Secret made those guys so happy, it might work for me too. In I went and not only did I get a fair idea about what those guys were smiling about, I also discovered the Cutest Fittest Room Ever. So, this year’s ForexDiva Award for Cutest Fitting Room Ever goes to… Victoria’s Secret in SoHo. Much, much more cost effective than Agent Provocateur, I might add.


Most Beautiful Necklace Ever

Bulgari Diamond and Emerald Necklace… this is not your mother’s estate jewellery (no offense to anyone's mother). Look at how beautiful the unpolished emeralds are and there will be no two pieces exactly identical. That is what a collector’s item is all about. Oh, now this is divine! I would need to have an 8 figure net worth to be able to afford this one, I’m afraid.


Most Beautiful Hermes Scarf Ever

I can’t decide… do I really need to choose? It’s between Offrandes D’un Jour, Attrape tes Reves, and Faubourg Express.



Most Durable Handbag Ever

What hurts more than spending four figures on a handbag that you think could be a classic, but having it look all beat up before the season’s out? It’s happened to me so many times with leather handbags (high-end, I might add, but that should have been a given) and the most damage usually occurs during air travel. Overhead compartments are not very leather handbag friendly. I finally gathered up enough sense to find a solution. For everyday use, get a Prada gabardine nylon tote. It is so inexpensive and I swear I have thrown mine everywhere and it only started looking a bit tarnished after two trips to NYC. Now that’s durable. I would have recommended Louis Vuitton if I liked Louis Vuitton, but it’s one of my least favourite brands in the world. Prada is perfect for everyday use. It’s just expensive enough that people will know you have some sense of luxury, but not expensive enough that you’d cry if it starts showing some wear. Save the Hermes Kelly or the Birkin for business meetings or social events. I am totally getting one with a matching wallet. Oh, yes I am!


At this point, I’d like to thank all our FWFs… well, you know who you are!

It Seems My Mid-Life Crisis Is Officially Over...

And by that, I mean the bitterness and the insecure need to go through my life detail by detail trying to change everything. Slowly and gradually, I have been implementing changes in my life and I recently started asking myself whether I should go back to business school for my Executive MBA, move to London, or implement other such mid-life crisis type endeavours. Is 30 too early for a mid-life crisis? I don't think so. I have one every few years. I'm still thinking about the London one - just to keep my options open.

Being an expat, I've got a tax advantage that provides me a post-tax net salary that would be equivalent to a good six figure gross salary. I evaluated the expected income figures for various MBA and Executive MBA programmes and decided that given my situation, an Executive MBA actually wouldn't help that much in terms of a post-tax salary boost without some serious sacrifice. An MBA definitely wouldn't help. How many six figure marketing jobs are there out there? Not much, actually. And the ones that are usually would require living on an airplane, which I'm not prepared to do - ever. I hope my boss doesn't see this. I mean, I know I've got it pretty good in terms of my salary, but I daresay I'm worth it. This year, I'm determined to prove it.

If I get my investment plan right, I wouldn't need to invest in a few additional years of school, plus a six figure tuition, which would set back my financial freedom deadline by another decade or something. If I do go back to school, I would have to do it on full scholarship and even then, I probably wouldn't want to invest the requisite time. It'll all bring back memories of how I felt so inadequate during university even though I can now afford much more than I did back then. What? People were carrying Louis Vuitton handbags during their undergraduate years. Not that I even like Louis Vuitton (actually never did), but still.

Other than that, check out the six-figure salaries that our Fair Weather Friends On Capitol Hill earn. Now that's smart! Work less, earn more!

By the way, my tax advantage is totally legal and accepted by the Fair Weather Friends at the IRS!

The Two Hour Massage Is Back!

Better times are here... at least for a while. I decided to treat myself to a 120 minute massage rather than my usual 90 minute massage. So far, my standard brokerage account is +1.41% and my Roth IRA is +1.2%. I took another loss - this time, on CPB. I exchanged the remaining capital for some more C.

I'm trying to keep a level head and not get too worked up over C, but it might turn out to be my one-way ticket to six figures providing I build up enough shares. The way I see it, not that anyone asked, is that C is one of the few remaining financial sector stocks that is still priced close to the low it made during one of the worst moments in economic history, so I’ve got to buy while it remains low. Even if it doubles, it’s a huge profit and its book value is about $6. I used to be wary of share dilution, and admit I was probably a bit too conservative. Since it has issued more outstanding shares, this might actually boost its market capitalisation. It is almost certain to test at least book value and if it does, then C's market cap will be at least $170 billion. I wonder if BAC will need to issue some more shares to compete.

According to me, not having bought more of C when it was even lower could turn out to be the dumbest mistake of my life. I really regret getting played by BAC and not buying more of HWD as well, but you only kind of know in hindsight.

My Dad could be right for once. Perhaps I should be thinking thousands of shares.

I do not want to get too greedy nor too aggressive. From the money management standpoint, I've already invested too much in C. However, I know I've got to follow my own rules this once because the risk:reward seems immensely promising.

I'm Dreaming Of Six Figures...

Oh, yes I am! Yesterday, my standard brokerage account ended up being +2.95% and my Roth IRA ended up being +3.12%. Today was another good day for my portfolio, although not as exciting as yesterday. So far, my standard brokerage account is +1.18% whilst my Roth IRA is +2.51%. Jerry Maguire should totally be telling my portfolio: "I will not rest until I have you holding a Coke, wearing your own shoe, playing a Sega game featuring you, while singing your own song in a new commercial, starring you, broadcast during the Superbowl, in a game that you are winning, and I will not sleep until that happens."

I am quite certain I was too late to catch on to the possibility of C being a very strong money magnet. It's been going up rather rapidly the past two days. So, I hope I'll still have a chance to add some more to my position before it skyrockets. I've done all I could in terms of rebalancing my portfolio and investing as much as I can in C and BAC. I had even taken a few serious losses (serious as in I never take losses unless I'm forced to), such as ABK shares and a small position in BFLY. It seems only George Soros could make money from BFLY.

I'm also going to try out a new money management strategy. I've now got two possible routes that my account could eventually become six figures. I'd like to add a few more. The first route is through my equities portfolio, mainly comprising C, BAC, HWD, and NYX. The second route is through my JBQ Strategy. JBQ has me rather nervous because I'm not sure I bought the right issue of Lehman bonds. I do know that my Finlay bonds could see a very good recovery. So, I'm crossing my fingers there.

So, the new money management strategy I'm going to try out is to map out a few plans that'll all potentially lead me to six figures. I'll treat each one as a separate strategy and kind of group different assets together. This way, I'll increase my chances of becoming six figures. Sooner or later, it has to happen and I prefer this year than next. And I will not sleep until that happens... well, I do rather require beauty sleep. So, I will not rest until I'm holding Coke? No one ever went broke holding Coke...

Yeah, yeah... I let go of KO too soon.

I Reckon Trading Is Full of Innuendos...

Should I be so excited? The first trading day of 2010 and my portfolio appears to be much more emotionally volatile than 2009 already. This is, mind you, after I did some aggressive rebalancing of my portfolio, adding to high beta plays such as C and BAC. So far, my portfolio's +2.68%!


Very smokin' hot, indeed.


Even HWD's up +5.08% thus far.

I am expecting HWD, C, and BAC to carry my portfolio for the rest of the year - unless I decide to do some more rebalancing before then.

For me, I hope this is just the start of some more good news for my portfolio, but I know what to expect with high beta plays now. You've got to take the good with the bad. After all, trading is full of innuendos and promises of stellar rewards for very little risk. What finally happened to my portfolio after all my rebalancing? I ended up with just a +0.5% gain (TBC) due to a horrifying loss on ABK bonds and shares. And this is not including my minor forex losses, so I'd probably be negative all in all for 2009. Oh, that's painful, especially after all my work.

I decided to get out of ABK once and for all (out of both bonds and shares) and go all out with C and BAC. It was a difficult decision to take, but I finally did it. I wanted to go into the New Year with no more excuses for mediocre investing.

If I did some creative accounting and consider bonds as a separate investment class, I would have been +9.4% with my equities, but that would definitely be self-deception and would moreover require the establishment of DAAP (Diva Accepted Accounting Practices).

Go on, laugh!

Is This Chart Full of Innuendo Or What?

The trading week has just begun and after work, I'm going to pore over lots of charts to look for major profit potential. I think it's better to be a follower this week unless you're a billionaire already.

I thought this USD/CHF 15 minute chart was rather interesting. It is full of innuendo according to me...

The Five Car Parking Lot

OMG… it’s not only a new week, but a New Year! Before I get into my ‘this year’s going to be so different’ thing, I want to talk about The Five Car Parking Lot. My trip to NYC was mostly a disappointment, but I had a bit of fun attempting to get myself into a more positive frame of mind for the New Year.

Some of my best moments were spent window shopping. And by that, I mean researching luxury retailers, of course. I went to Tiffany to try out some diamond earrings that were 1.7 carats each. They looked nice enough, but I actually thought they could have been slightly bigger and preferred my pair for now, which I daresay is much more sparkly. I told the sales representative I’ll call him when I make a ton of money in the stock market this year, which I am totally going to do for the price tag on those was a good five figures. I’ve decided this is the year I am going to break out of my five figure mode and become six figures. I’ve been five figures for the past three years, so as I move out of this PDO phase, I’m going to go into my PPT phase (premeditated profit taking). I could say I’d like to become a millionaire straight away, but that would probably require winning the lottery.

I also visited lovely Harry Winston. I had the audacity to step in there this time and at least get myself a preview of what’s to come. I loved their window displays. They created a beautiful winter wonderland with snow and tree branches and of course fabulous diamond jewellery and it was all so magical. I thought to myself: this is why we do marketing – to bring consumers beautiful experiences if only for a second or two. When I was in the boutique, I experienced the premeditated snobbishness that luxury retailers are known for. Quite frankly, if those sales representatives were making so much money, they wouldn’t be trying to sell me stuff now would they? So what’s up with the nose up in the air bit? We’re going to try to sell you, but you’re going to have to work for it? Trading ego at its finest. I digress. I think I missed out big time. I should have invested in TIF. I have no regrets investing in HWD, but I should have bought up TIF when I had a chance to. So, I’m going to look for opportunities in TIF.

In any case, I also nearly got myself murdered by some psycho bitch in the SoHo area. My sister has a penchant for choosing off-beat, quirky eateries and found a Thai place on Christopher Street. As I was walking to this place, I encountered this woman nearly twice my height who out of left field pointed her cane at me and yelled out: “Get out of my way.” It nearly left me in tears because though I am a diva, I cannot compete with a screaming woman who is twice my size carrying a cane. It definitely reminded me NYC is full of psychos. No offense. I loved the smokin’ hot ultra spicy Thai food and the jaywalking though. Next time, I’m choosing the restaurant!

Anyway, I’m going to now get to the moral of the story. I saw a five car parking lot whilst I was in SoHo. This isn’t the type that is part of another business, but a real self-sustaining five car parking lot. And it made me think… how do they even make money? And, then I thought, hey isn’t that a bit like our portfolios? We’ve only got a limited amount of trading capital, i.e. parking space. Once we’re in a position, we’re kind of stuck for a while. So the only way we could be making money is to decrease our rent and charge more for the cars that park in our Five Car Parking Lot. Ultimately, though, we’re going to have to find a bigger parking lot!

This year, I hope everyone breaks out of their Five Car Parking Lots and adds a few more zeros to their accounts!