Friday, June 28, 2013
It looks like the VIX is forming a MACD bullish divergence on the VIX 10-day 15-minute charts. Is it time to put more money under the mattress?
I want a one-way street in either direction, but the DJT has found some support above the key 6100 level and the Japanese Housewives managed to take the Nikkei up above 13,000 and the SENSEXy Maharajas got pretty worked up too.
It may look like I'm sitting on my hands with no sense of risk control whatsoever, but I'm waiting for the VIX to either hit 12 again or definitively head higher.
If I get out on my calls now, I'll virtually be the only volume on those issues...
Can't wait to watch Mike Khouw on OptionsAction!
-1.60% Roth IRA
+1.78% Hang Seng
-0.20% 10-Year US Treasury Notes
Thursday, June 27, 2013
I took a day off from the markets as my Significant Mother visited me today and it was just as well.
My portfolio has been heading south for far too long now and I'm growing impatient.
Maybe I just chose the wrong stocks or got into the wrong calls at the wrong time. Right now, even my CSCO and MRK calls have been seeing red.
I would have been better off staying in cash, but the most frustrating thing of all is that the VXX Market Makers aren't the least bit co-operative...
If the bulls are so adamant, they should take the SPY up above 170 and get me out of my calls...
-1.99% Roth IRA
+0.50% Hang Seng
-2.21% 10-Year US Treasury Notes
SEC Investigating Data Release From Reuters & ISM
Wednesday, June 26, 2013
Even ForexDiva has been hiring lately, but so far, I got stuck with a diva that's even more diva than The Diva herself. She's already said that I'm not her boss and after sending her to Las Vegas for business development recently, she now wants to travel to New York. So far she's working on a commission-only basis and even though I'm paying her a 20% commission, apparently, it's working for free according to her.
Little does she know that she's skating on thin ice...
+0.13% Roth IRA
+2.43% Hang Seng
-1.93% 10-Year US Treasury Notes
Tuesday, June 25, 2013
My horse and carriage poofed back into a pumpkin today as the short-sellers scrambled to cover their assets and the conviction bulls faded us amidst Central Bankers' reassurances on 'reasonable interest rates,' sending the SPY back up to close the day at 158.575, after having touched 160.10 briefly and once again closing below the daily 50% Fib level of 158.76. I knew things weren't good when the GOLs popped over 1% in the European session and even the Tall European Men chimed in.
It's evident that people who bought the run-up to SPY 169.07 are now selling calls, so I'm in an unenviable position for the time being. The irony is that I was one of the early semi-bears who bought pre SPY 150 puts. I even made money with one or two issues before the bulls officially became the year's De Facto Kiss the Ground We Walk On Rulers.
If the Advance / Decline Line is any consolation, there may still be a chance for the market to reach new heights over the next few months before it ultimately corrects further and deeper, but it may be thinking that is as wishful as a fairy tale. Will I still have a chance to offload the untimely calls I scooped up right before that fateful 22 May 2013?
Somehow, getting assigned on those UVXY and VXX short puts is becoming a blessing in disguise. If interest rates really are going up, then there will be no shortage of volatility over the summer. And it just so happens that the VIX ETFs comprise quite a big part of my portfolio.
We've all witnessed these things pop over 20% in a day, so once all the ducks get lined up in a row, it'll be duck duck go!
-4.71% Roth IRA
+0.21% Hang Seng
+1.61% 10-Year US Treasury Notes
The market was limit down for a few days on one of his long trades in the early days and he was losing 10% of his equity everyday.
I have a tonne of calls in my Roth IRA and they're still being knifed down in an uptrending tape.
Just hope that I can be like Mark Weinstein and bounce back to become one of the most accurate traders alive...
Monday, June 24, 2013
Ever since Amazon.com started baiting and switching us with their Subscribe & Save programme, I've been using Soap.com a lot more. Free Lightning Fast 2-Day Shipping With Minimum Orders of Just $35? 25% off sales every once in a while that make their prices even more competitive than Walmart's online prices? What's not to like!
If Quidsi Retail, the parent of Soap.com, ever does an IPO, I'll consider buying up...
I was up over 6% on the SBA this morning, but the Buy the Dippers completely drove prices back up and thwarted my financial plaisir.
The SPY still closed right below its daily 50% Fib retracement level of 157.08 though.
Is it time for the semi-bears to start screaming like Bill on CNBC: Whatever! It's still going down?
However the bulls may want to spin it, the DJT has broken and closed below 6100 and the VIX has broken and closed above 20.
After searching far and wide, I finally found one site that lists the NYSE Advance / Decline Line for free... and it looks like a top has formed. Let's see if the upwards trend channel breaks...
May the VXX Market Makers showcase their skills tomorrow...
+1.70% Roth IRA
-2.22% Hang Seng
+1.35% 10-Year US Treasury Notes
Still some open interest left on this issue and if these were put sellers, they will have to either take profits or get out as this sector could see some more downside with cries about potentially rising interest rates...
It looks like the Sell the Rippers are starting to gain some more market recognition...
At least for the time being...
Friday, June 21, 2013
The best thing I did yesterday was not doubling up on any positions, but unfortunately, my UVXY $10 calls, which I doubled up on, will expire worthless... The position was 17% of one of my standard stock position size and about 4% of my account size, which means I over-invested.
Other expiring duds:
FXY Jun 22 '13 $110 Calls
FXF Jun 22 '13 $110 Calls
NG Jun 22 '13 $3 Calls
NUGT Jun 22 '13 $13 Calls
SPXU Jun 22 '13 $30 Calls
WEAT Jun 22 '13 $20 Calls
XLF Jun 22 '13 $20 Call
I am going to have to reduce my position sizes from now on...
-1.93% Roth IRA
-0.59% Hang Seng
+3.93% 10-Year US Treasury Notes
Thursday, June 20, 2013
The semi-bears finally pushed the VIX above 20 today, hitting an intraday high of 21.32 and managing a close above 20. The S&P dipped and closed below the psychologically significant 1600 as the DJIA knifed down 353.87 points mercilessly.
No asset class was spared today and even my gold and silver plays got hit, but somehow I walked into CLWR calls just in time. Could DISH up their bid above Sprint's new $5 per share offer and put my $5.50 calls deeply in the money?
Are we finally at a new paradigm?
Michael Pento was the first guy on CNBC to mention that he is now going to short stocks and even said the D word (deflation). A few weeks ago, not even Marc Faber was willing to short the S&P. So maybe it's time for the semi-bears to come out of the sandbox now?
Thank God I held on tight to my VIX ETFs - and thank God for options...
-1.25% Roth IRA
-2.88% Hang Seng
+4.67% 10-Year US Treasury Notes
I pray that Santa will come early and that the UVXY will spike another +25% tomorrow - just in time for my birthday...
... and I don't have any more left!
The VIX ETFs aren't giving me enough upside just yet...
But dare I hope that these will become my biggest winners of the year?
These ETFs were all trading above $100 and all of a sudden, the bulls charged in and threatened to put the fund managers out of business...
Who's buying the dip?
Wednesday, June 19, 2013
The market isn't the only thing acting up today. I spent hours into the night rebuilding some PhotoShop files for a project that will hopefully soon become a major source of steady capital inflows for me. Unfortunately, there were some technical issues with the files I had created about a year ago and I had to rebuild 68 files all over again amidst a string of Error 43's and Error 36's.
Now I have to FTP them and every file is over 100 MB. This will take hours...
From now on, we know that Bernanke = Red Flag...
Why did I switch to Mac? Why me? Why today?
+0.47% Roth IRA
-1.13% Hang Seng
+5.91% 10-Year US Treasury Notes
Tuesday, June 18, 2013
I'm finding it impossible to locate the daily advance / decline line that was mentioned by David Ryan, one of the guys mentioned in the Market Wizards book I'm still reading. I sometimes read a few books at once, so it takes me a long time to finish reading a book unless it's especially gripping, exhilarating, breath-taking, or suspenseful.
In any case, the daily advance / decline line is supposed to be a leading indicator to market tops.
Will The Bernanke create another market top for me to escape from all my calls right before my birthday? Even Shanghai managed a slight uptick...
-0.43% Roth IRA
+0.51% 10-Year US Treasury Notes
Monday, June 17, 2013
... and I can't be found...
Ever since I bought calls at around VIX 13, I've been losing money left and right. Admittedly, I would have done better buying the 52WHs and selling covered calls, but my losses are limited to the capital outlay I spent buying these calls.
Some of my biggest options trading mistakes:
Buying $2 SPY puts
Buying $2 SPY puts again
Buying $2 SPY puts again and again (stop smirking...)
Missing the market top when I've been a semi-bear since February 2013...
In essence, I'm selling lows and buying highs...
In a way, this market kind of reminds me of 2007 - very spookily. Poor Peter Schiff just got shunned by Maria on CNBC. And it was hard to argue with her. Who's brave enough to be a SPY seller and admit that they're bearish on national TV?
I remember getting into a long USD/JPY trade that summer and totally getting liquidated as the USD/JPY went from above 124 to 112 over the course of a few weeks - if even a few weeks.
The major forex moves seem to always precede the stock market moves. So if we see further JPY strengthening, this could indeed be 2007 all over again.
Unfortunately, it took the stock market just a little over a year from the time the carry trade began to unwind in 2007 to finally correct. And I'm already exasperated.
-2.00% Roth IRA
+1.22% Hang Seng
+2.12% 10-Year US Treasury Notes
Friday, June 14, 2013
... but I think CNBC announced the UoM figures 5 minutes early too. LOL.
Losses offset gains today...
-1.57% Roth IRA
+0.39% Hang Seng
-2.21% 10-Year US Treasury Notes
And I'm not a Thomson Reuters elite customer either...
Thursday, June 13, 2013
A disastrous day for my portfolio with zero profit-taking and mounting losses.
The US markets completely ignored the Swooning Japanese Housewives and bought the dips as Retail Sales and Unemployment Claims printed modest improvements amidst whispers that Bernanke could be ready to dose out some more blue pills at next week's FOMC Meeting.
I went along and added PIR and CLWR calls to my EWJ puts and FXY calls, but no results yet.
It's either I've got to do something differently or I've got to be a little more patient...
The controversial Preliminary University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment figures are out tomorrow at 10:00 am. Apparently, there have been quote unquote private sponsors of this data for over 40 years now, so we definitely got the memo late.
I'll be watching the charts 5 minutes before the figures are released to see how the Liberal Elite Traders are playing it...
-1.47% Roth IRA
-2.19% Hang Seng
-2.51% 10-Year US Treasury Notes
Supreme Court: Human Genes Cannot Be Patented...
Incredible they brought it up to the Supreme Court!
-6.35% on the Nikkei overnight...
Wednesday, June 12, 2013
I've been faked out so many times that I'm not sure if this is a definitive move or not. VIX didn't break above its previous top with a strong enough move and the SPY hasn't broken below its previous support level either. FXF and gold moved up slightly, but not enough to give me profit-taking plaisir.
If we see weaker than expected US Retail Sales and Unemployment Claims tomorrow, these could potentially give the semi-bears leverage to kick things up a notch or two.
Just throwing a figure out here, but the VIX could hit 25 if things get really, really crazy...
Thanks to the reverse split on UVXY, the least expensive VIX ETF options have suddenly become a lot more expensive. So I'm going to have to find a more cost-effective way to play this.
-0.74% Roth IRA
-1.20% Hang Seng
+1.59% 10-Year US Treasury Notes
Tuesday, June 11, 2013
Every once in a while, I notice trades happening with the exact number of lots I'm trading in the exact same options issues. Kind of spooky when you think about it!
ForexDiva, we know who you are and what you're trading and how much you're risking...
Is Big Brother really watching?
Volatility is finally popping and this move to the upside feels a lot more fervent than the previous rounds. Perhaps the bears are finally gaining momentum and seismic shifts are beginning to occur after such a long wait.
My hope is that I'll be able to capitalise on the short term correction as well as participate in the longer term gains, but so far, repatriation is still a work in progress within my portfolio.
Whether we're able to break below the previous support levels will be key...
+3.01% Roth IRA
-1.20% Hang Seng
-2.78% USD/JPY (talk about running stops!)
-0.90% 10-Year US Treasury Notes
Monday, June 10, 2013
CORN and WEAT both ended the day slightly above their daily 50% Fib levels... Is it finally time for them to start moving higher and give me some profit-taking opportunities?
Other than another hit from UVXY in the form of a reverse split, very little action on my portfolios today, which disappointingly failed to repatriate much of Friday's losses.
Overall, the US market indices closed nearly flat. However, strong undercurrents may be on the horizon as gold managed to tick up and major forex moves occurred on the JPY crosses.
First it was the SPY; then it was the VIX. I'm 'Fed' up with getting dinged!
I just subscribed to the Investors.com Leaderboard on a two-week free trial. If it makes a positive difference to my trading, I'll rave about it on here. Otherwise, just from how my portfolio is reacting, it seems I would have done better continuing to buy puts - or to sell calls.
Thankfully there is a Time Premium on the majority of my calls, but it's still no consolation prize...
+0.19% Roth IRA
+0.18% Hang Seng
+2.50% 10-Year US Treasury Notes
P.S. It's incredible that someone's actually hedging their mortgage in JPY... Perhaps I should look into forex trading again?
Friday, June 7, 2013
One would think that I have a perma-bear portfolio by the way it performed today, but in fact, I had a tonne of calls.
Unfortunately, my T calls declined just as much as my SPXU calls by value.
Some issues registered a loss, but actually had 0 volume, which means no trading took place.
I'm not going to take any more haircuts yet as I have time until options expiry... If I bite now, I'll become bait...
The bulls must be laughing all the way to the bank and unfortunately, my semi-bullish SPY calls and UVXY puts did not offset my losses...
-3.94% Roth IRA
-1.21% Hang Seng
+4.14% 10-Year US Treasury Notes
P.S. The guy reporting looks like he's about to attend a funeral too...
Thursday, June 6, 2013
I hate the Buy the Dippers! My portfolio was firmly in the green throughout most of the day. Then, out of nowhere, the Buy the Dippers started throwing hand grenades and backed the semi-bears into a wall.
I was cornered, but thank the Lord I was able to run for cover, jumping into the proverbial nearby pond as I took profits on my UVXY $8 calls and got out of my UVXY $9 calls with a small haircut. Will I still be financially alive tomorrow?
Fearing I might have picked up the UVXY $10 calls at an intermediate top, I bought some UVXY $6.50 puts as a hedge at a 3:1 ratio in favour of $10 calls.
By the end of the day, the Buy the Dippers had turned my gains upside down, reversing my portfolio for the day, but if we go up again, this could be an opportunity for me to get rid of some of the calls I'm still holding on BAC, CORN, CSCO, DBA, MRK, T, PER, TC, TGB, LYG, MFG, MTU, NMR, PQ, SDR, SLT, as well as the newly added PAY, NG, and NGD.
-2.50% Roth IRA
-1.05% Hang Seng
-1.19% 10-Year US Treasury Notes
Buy the Dippers are coming back and boy are they fervent!
Every Thursday before Non-Farm Payday, we get a bunch of buyers coming in at around lunch time. I wonder if they get inside news from the the Bureau of Labour Statistics?
Maybe that's when the time-embargoed press releases with NFP numbers get sent out?
Profitable gold miner with both topline and bottom line growth...
Earnings will add to cash pile and the company is on the brink of piling up enough cash to exceed debt on balance sheet...
If sell-off is deeper than anticipated, then gold will once again begin to shimmer...
Wednesday, June 5, 2013
Oh yes they did! The market went down and the Market Makers took them to town!
Since I've got such a big chunk of my portfolio invested in VIX ETFs, one would expect my portfolio to be giving the conviction bulls a run for their money. But no! I had to be a few months too early and sit through a 30 to 50% off sale on UVXY, VXX, and TVIX...
Some of the calls I picked up along the way caused a massive drop in my SBA too, but I was able to take profits on EWJ puts and buy a few front-running puts at pennies on the dollar...
If the sell-off continues, SPXU (+4.29%) could become my best trend...
$40.37 is the 52 week 50% Fib level... don't know if it'll get there though.
Overall, I'm still up on the day by a small fraction... incredible, really!
+1.79% Roth IRA
+0.11% SENSEX (only overseas market that managed to get some green today)
-0.97% Hang Seng
-1.73% 10-Year US Treasury Notes
Financial sector was amongst the biggest sector gainers this year...
There was a lot of put selling on this issue, amounting to a tonne of open interest.
If the market declines further, there will be a lot of buying, which would drive prices back up...
A bit of green in a sea of red...
Ex-dividend date of 1 July 2013...
Like the fundamentals of the balance sheet too...
Tonnes of cash on the balance sheet, profitable with strong growth, good P/E level compared to other Nasdaq stocks such as GOOG or FB...
If other indices melt down, Nasdaq may be able to hold...
Like the risk:reward...
Tuesday, June 4, 2013
I finally got upgraded to Level III trading on my SBA recently and this morning, I woke up to additional purchasing power on my SBA in the form of margin, which I've never had before. It took a lot of effort not to utilise this margin, especially as my equity recovered a very substantial part of my recent losses today.
It is crazy how much leverage E*Trade is allowing me: Cash x 5!
I made a choice to take some profits off the table and re-enter positions trading below or quite near to my original entry prices. I took some losses and got out of the full SPY put spread I erroneously and naively put on a few days ago. This could turn out to be the best loss I ever took.
Whilst the market made a concerted repatriation effort, it appears the short sellers are gaining conviction.
Let's see if the Buy the Dippers can regain their pricing power...
After profit-taking on both accounts today:
+0.76% Roth IRA
+0.01% Hang Seng
+0.14% 10-Year US Treasury Notes
ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
Should I take profit or keep riding?
Pops on MRK, PER, and SDR calls...
On the one hand, I should really learn how to let my winners run whilst it's also beneficial to lock in my gains...
Thank God for the Buy the Dippers!
Haircut of $0.45...
I've learned my lesson about put spreads...
Will need to study more and stop trading such huge positions.
Good thing I had a massage and haircut booked today because the BOGO trade I thought I had put on turned out to be a real dud. As luck would have it, my FB fiasco was a timely one as it made me see just how bad my SPY put spread setup is. If I had found out what type of faulty thinking I was using to get into positions next Monday morning, I would be in hot, hot water. My position on the SPY is three times larger than FB and I also stand to lose a lot more, so getting out now is key. Essentially, someone paid me $0.29 to buy at SPY 167 and sell at SPY 165.50. And I fell for it!
I've been trading for 7 years now, so these types of rookie mistakes should not be happening any longer and I should seriously be minting money by now.
I'm going to have to run for my financial life tomorrow or the day after.
The bulls seem to have made quite a comeback though...
+1.42% Roth IRA
-0.49% Hang Seng
-1.39% 10-Year US Treasury Notes