Wednesday, December 21, 2011

SENSEXual Healing...

All of a sudden, I received two new business leads from my 50-point marketing campaign. I'm really low on energy today, so I'm not yet sprinting ahead, but I am making the contacts. At this stage, I'm not going to get too overly excited either because anything can happen, but I am going to do my best.

One of my penny stocks, which I nearly forgot about - IDGG - managed a +172.73% jump today, leaving my SBA with a totally unexpected paper gain. IDGG signed a long term supply agreement with JBI Inc. I'm wishing for a major push in volume on IDGG.

WNR also closed the day very strongly on the back of uptrending oil prices.

+1.69% SBA
+0.22% Roth IRA

+0.03% DJIA
-0.99% Nasdaq
+0.19% S&P

-0.55% FTSE
-0.47% Eurofirst

+1.48% Nikkei
-1.12% Shanghai
+3.36% SENSEX (a +510.13 point rise - now that's why we call them Maharajas!)

+1.66% WTI Crude
+1.02% Brent Crude

-0.24% Gold
+0.65% Copper
+1.48% Corn

+8.57% VIX

Tuesday, December 20, 2011

SENSEXy Clause

9FM finally called me back and we spent a beautiful 18 minutes and 52 seconds on the phone this morning. He knows I blah a lot, so he cut our conversation short right at the height of open outcry trading ecstasy, leaving me desiring a little more time to explain what makes my unique selling proposition so enchanting. He was the one who brought up the topic of collaborating together again first, so this must be a good sign!

The beginnings of a negotiation are in place and I notice the pattern already. He offered a very low price, but I refused. So I spent most of the day working on a proposal for him rather than actively riding the mesmerising financial waves that left the bears drenched in one of the quickest retracements we've seen this year.

My portfolio still lagged the market, but it's such a relief to close the day in the plus:

+2.86% SBA
+2.03% Roth IRA

+2.87% DJIA
+3.19% Nasdaq
+2.98% S&P

+1.02% FTSE
+1.97% Eurofirst

+0.49% Nikkei
-0.10% Shanghai
-1.33% SENSEX

+3.66% WTI Crude
+3.20% Brent Crude

+1.29% Gold
+1.91% Copper
+1.04% Corn

-6.98% VIX (ho, ho, ho, bears!)

+0.58% EUR/USD
+0.99% GBP/USD (hey there, GOLs!)

+8.59% JRCC
+5.64% CENX
+4.19% WNR

Monday, December 19, 2011

Holy Dow! Save Me, Happy Shiny 9FM...

My market buddy / financial love of my life, 9FM, received the results from his key project today and he indicated to me that the project was a success! However, I have yet to hear his SENSEXy voice and find out all the crucial details since he was so elusive today. I will be calling him after I get some much needed slumber. I was nearly up all night with anticipation and today's market action was absolutely abhorrent.

We're going back to 2009 levels on BAC and most of my commodity plays have broken down even further with the political transition going on in North Korea and Draghi dragging on about Europe. Quite frankly, the new Dear Leader Mr Kim has me agreeing with the Fraidy Bunch - we should be worried since this is a guy who's into military action, or so it seems. Wouldn't oil make a potentially good play then during this ultra sensitive market moment?

Something else that really stood out is that corn finished with a strong push to the upside, accompanied by a horizontal consolidation pattern on the 5-day $DXY chart. My question is: is the stop-running finally done and will the Santa Rally soon begin?

If my time has not yet come, then when my BAC position in the SBA gets to -75%, I'm going to think about averaging in again... or should I wait until -99%? Neither of these are too far away - and if history repeats itself in the form of a beautiful round of Quantitative Easing, this could be the position that puts my portfolio back in the plus.

I'm going to also carefully watch for drastic changes in volume as this could be one of the key signals of the pivot point. I'm going to study this and memorise the patterns since it's a critical component of price action... It seems to me that when daily volume is significantly more or less than the 10-day MA, drastic price changes have a greater chance of occurring.

-3.70% SBA (how?)
-3.15% Roth IRA (why?)

-0.84% DJIA
-1.26% Nasdaq
-1.17% S&P

-0.41% FTSE
+0.06% Eurofirst

-1.26% Nikkei
-0.30% Shanghai
-0.72% SENSEX

+0.38% WTI Crude
+0.20% Brent Crude

+0.21% Gold
-1.14% Copper
+3.31% Corn

+2.59% VIX

-7.64% JRCC
-6.57% WNR
-5.56% CENX

Friday, December 16, 2011

In the Doldrums With ForexDiva...

About a week back, I received an email with a list of staff members who work at the building I live in with the deepest dread. I counted twenty three people on the list and noticed that there were quite a few that should also have been on the list who weren't yet included. My research about how much I should be tipping made me wish I was still living in Europe, where tipping isn't requisite and even a small tip is received with a lot of gratitude.

Given the way my portfolio has been performing and the tepid response from 9FM lately (we've been financially flirting, but it isn't as hot and heavy as before - at least not yet and I anticipate that will change very soon), I should really be as conservative as possible. However, after setting aside moola for my expenses next year and realising that I'm still a lot better off than other people, I decided to give as much as I can to the devoted staff in my building.

Strangely, when I got to it, it actually felt good to give. All year, I've been selfish and greedy and it feels nice not to be all Bah Humbug, let's trade the Japanese Earthquake...

One of the staff actually hugged me! I'm quite sure she didn't receive much since she's a temporary employee. Initially, I wanted to skip her, but then I thought about how - as a consultant - I'm a temporary employee too. So I included her.

I wish I had more to give - and when I do, I will. My 50-point marketing plan has to start paying off soon. Although I haven't implemented everything yet, a seed is starting to sprout and I have such a good feeling about this new plan that I have.

After the crisis hit, a part of my previous job that I really loved disappeared. And now, I've found a way to incorporate it into my new business.

It's only been a week since I decided to have new business hours and I'm still finetuning the precise hours, but it's been difficult. I'm really sleepy a lot of the time, but I feel a lot more productive being within a phone call's reach of the rest of the world.

Getting back to the market... something important occurred today. The Reserve Bank of India intervened in the currency markets. This is the third BRIC central bank intervention within a matter of weeks and this is just what the market needs. I think we're going to have to see some easing from China and India over the next few quarters.

So, I think coal is going to be a good buy. Once China and India start growing rapidly again, demand for coal will strengthen once more. It really got crazy with JRCC towards the final few minutes of trading. My SBA was knifing half a percent in either direction, plus then minus, plus then minus because JRCC was jumping from $6.90 something all the way to $6.50 something within seconds.

-0.34% SBA
-0.14% Roth IRA

-0.02% DJIA
+0.56% Nasdaq
+0.32% S&P

-0.25% FTSE
-0.51% Eurofirst

+0.29% Nikkei
+2.02% Shanghai
-2.18% SENSEX

+0.16% WTI Crude
+0.22% Brent Crude

+1.19% Gold
+2.78% Copper
+0.43% Corn

-3.27% VIX


Thursday, December 15, 2011

Celebrating 1000 Posts...

And still as bimbo as ever!

Finally, the bears couldn't push prices down with any meaningful drive - for the time being at least.

I researched several oil plays very quickly yesterday, but none of the stocks within my price range really appealed to me in a trade me right now, right this second kind of way.

Did anyone else notice that we're nearing the critical point of having recreated nearly 2 million jobs in the US since the onset of the global economic crisis?

I think that's pretty significant, though the progress has been slow. However, we've had a straight 14 months of NFP job creation. That's something to celebrate, isn't it?

-0.09% SBA
-0.07% Roth IRA

+0.38% DJIA
+0.07% Nasdaq
+0.33% S&P

+0.63% FTSE
+0.98% Eurofirst

-1.66% Nikkei
-2.14% Shanghai
-0.28% SENSEX

-1.43% WTI Crude
+0.16% Brent Crude

-0.69% Gold
-0.64% Copper
-0.30% Corn

-3.92% VIX

Wednesday, December 14, 2011

This Message Is Being Transmitted From the Great Beyond...

I'm way underground here... still digging, but still far from hitting gold.

Something is seriously not right here.

CENX and JRCC hit 52-week lows on 4 October 2011, corresponding with a VIX level of around 40. Here we are at VIX 26.22 and we're about 26% above the JRCC low and 20% above the CENX low. Higher prices, lower VIX...

We've had a drop in volatility over the past few days, but prices have also dropped on most commodities given the strength in the USD. Should I now be paying attention to the $DXY rather than VIX?

We're pretty much near the annual high on the $DXY. I'll be looking at this very, very closely as a break above the annual high at 81.31 could signal an even bigger directional move on commodities. And if the downslide continues, I better be ready with some bids on oil sector plays, which I anticipate will be the first to rebound upon a short squeeze, whenever that may occur.

Research time... but I'm way too tired from getting up so early these past few mornings. I got a tonne done though. I implemented about 17 points out of my now 48-point corporate marketing plan! I've got to get more momentum going though and am really surprised that the recent downturn in the trading has actually led me to get more fired up about my business. That - and in less than a week, 9FM and I will find out how deep our future fiscal union will be. Either way, I've got a plan to make it more satisfying than ever - unlike my portfolio...

Tuesday, 13 December 2011

-3.69% SBA
-1.85% Roth IRA

-0.55% DJIA
-1.26% Nasdaq
-0.87% S&P

+1.15% FTSE
+0.55% Eurofirst

+2.53% WTI Crude
+1.64% Brent Crude

-1.10% Gold
-1.99% Copper
+0.30% Corn

Wednesday, 14 December 2011

-1.45% SBA
-0.96% Roth IRA

-1.10% DJIA
-1.55% Nasdaq
-1.13% S&P

-2.25% FTSE
-2.10% Eurofirst

-0.39% Nikkei
-0.89% Shanghai
-0.76% SENSEX

-5.19% WTI Crude
-4.30% Brent Crude

-5.16% Gold
-4.73% Copper
-1.36% Corn

Check out Professor Paulson's commentary on FT... Europe Needs A Firewall To Stabilise Markets...

Alas, ForexDiva needs a firefighter to provide dollar liquidity to portfolio...

Cancelled PQ Bid @ $6.32...

Not buying until further notice...

The trading floor seems to be in need of some scented potpourri.

Tuesday, December 13, 2011

Out of PQ @ $6.6607...

Loss of $0.0693 per share...

Am attempting to buy if it dips to $6.32 - or a 1% break below today's low on the possibility that Bernanke will cause a fakeout and then knife above to form a new high, which would then give me an opportunity to profit on about $0.30 per share...

Stranger things have happened, so there's a chance this could occur...

Monday, December 12, 2011

Shopping Casket

Over the weekend, I decided to establish new business hours of 4 am to 4 pm in order to work with all different time zones from Hong Kong to India to Europe and the USA. After a beautiful bounce on Friday, I thought we'd have a promising segue into this important week, where we get to hear straight from His Royal Highness with tomorrow's FOMC Statement.

So this morning, I rolled out of bed at around 3:30 am to get ready for a big day ahead. I felt ultra upbeat and started implementing my 27-point corporate marketing plan with a tonne of energy and enthusiasm.

As soon as the market opened, I developed an instant hatred for David Cameron and all Tall European Men.

It turns out I dug my own grave and the market makers threw in a casket for free.

The more I looked at the market, the fraidier I became. This isn't the type of energy I want to subconsciously project onto my business, but the strangest thing is that VIX is now in the red. What? That's kind of a first, isn't it? I'm hoping and praying that this could be the first sign that it's now the bears' turn to be cremated. 25 on VIX is key. Will we see some further downside on VIX? And could it signal the market turn that I sorely require?

My latest play, PQ, closed the day near its daily high, which is all the more encouraging.

Keeping the stock market faith alive is so difficult at this point, but I'm already in so deep. I might as well see if I can start turning this grave into a tunnel somehow...

Friday, 9 December 2011

+2.64% SBA
+1.00% Roth IRA

+1.55% DJIA
+1.94% Nasdaq
+1.69% S&P

+0.83% FTSE
+1.25% Eurofirst

-1.48% Nikkei
-0.62% Shanghai
-1.67% SENSEX

+1.52% WTI Crude
+1.34% Brent Crude

+0.05% Gold
+1.91% Copper
-0.85% Corn

Monday, 12 December 2011

-4.83% SBA
-2.02% Roth IRA

-1.34% DJIA
-1.31% Nasdaq
-1.49% S&P

+1.37% Nikkei
-1.02% Shanghai
-2.12% SENSEX (leave my favourite 9FM alone!)

-1.27% WTI Crude
-1.22% Brent Crude

-2.85% Gold
-2.92% Copper
+0.26% Corn

-2.65% VIX, currently at 25.67

Thursday, December 8, 2011

E*Traders, Don't Change An Open Order...

I think that's how two PQ orders got in. I was changing an open order as the existing open order got hit, resulting in two orders.

Thankfully, I decided to cancel the $6.63 bid, or I would have ended up with a position double the intended size at virtually the same entry.

This just goes to show that anything can happen in trading - especially when a bimbo's driving...

Yikers, Bikers, We're On Rikers: Natural Gas Storage Disaster Day...

If you follow Professor Schlossberg every once in a while, he frequently talks about how people mistakenly put in buy orders when they meant to sell and vice versa in real life trading. I always think, oh yes, that used to be me. So when the Natural Gas Storage numbers came out at -20B, I set a buy order on PQ @ $6.73. I then changed it to $6.63 and finally cancelled it on the knee-jerk-reaction pop to $6.88 right after the news. I didn't think much about my 'cancelled order.' I specifically thought to myself that I would buy something - maybe PQ or JRCC - if VIX tries for 35.

So when I looked at my portfolio after the market closed since I was working on some other stuff for my business for a while, I was open outcry shocked to see my bid had been hit and that I am now stuck with another commodity play loss.

I swear I thought it was cancelled, but now that I look at my cancelled orders, there was another cancelled PQ buy order @ $6.63, so I'm glad the second one didn't go through.

How did two orders get in and how long will it take ForexBimbo to get out of this one? Worse yet, wasn't I supposed to stick to my thus far futile goal of trying to buy an LYG dress on a dip? Amidst the backdrop of the Eurozone bank stress tests, which showed that banks have a 115 billion EUR shortfall, LYG fell -8.33% today, but I still didn't get hit.

Though the implementation of my PQ entry was bimbo, I did have reasons for going into PQ. My research from a couple of days back showed that PQ had a very high short % float number [of 20%] and an even more significant Short Ratio of 8.3, which means that it'll take 8.3 days of trading volume for all the shorts to be covered. This is a long time and if the right dynamic shift occurs, the upside could be significant as the bears run for cover. However, the question is how bad can it get on the other side of the pond?

One thing I'm going to make certain of is that I'll move my free cash over to another account just in case I decide to inadvertently make any other bimbo moves. Cash is good to have in an account, but imagine putting in a buy order with a bid size of a 0 too many and then actually having it go through. On certain pricing, that can even happen with my bike sized account and something like that will even be more painful than my current situation!

Right now, the only thing that can save me is that the party over in the Eurozone ends with champagne rather than empty promises.

-3.58% SBA
-3.23% Roth IRA

-1.63% DJIA
-1.99% Nasdaq
-2.11% S&P

-1.14% FTSE
-1.51% Eurofirst

-0.66% Nikkei
-0.12% Shanghai
-2.30% SENSEX

-2.51% WTI Crude
-1.83% Brent Crude

-1.90% Gold
-1.95% Copper
+1.37% Corn

-0.56% EUR/USD
-0.47% GBP/USD

+6.94% VIX (now that's love...)

-9.39% PQ
-8.73% JRCC
-7.25% HWD
-5.81% CENX
-5.36% SLT

Treat Me To A New Treaty...

I don't understand why some people make things more complex than they need to be. I certainly have been guilty of this crime with my trading, but it seems Germany's insistence on treating the market to a new treaty has sent many market makers spreading rumours that we should all head for shelter in the midst of an impending thunderstorm, but the data clearly shows that very little running is actually being done.

The warning signs that tree branches might get knocked down and winds will be blowing strong have been issued. Will it turn out to be like Mayor Bloomberg's hurricane evacuation orders? What's the best thing to do but get in one of the GOLs' cars in hopes that they will drive us wild with their smart Burberry suits, dark-framed glasses, and forexy British accents?

I'm still stuck in a spell where I can't buy and I can't sell. Everyday that ticks by decreases my efficiency by a good margin. But as the market could still go either way, I'm reluctant to buy, though the Glencore Traders have been in a good mood - putting in a new high and closing strong.

The road's still paved with gold; we've just got to dig deeper!

Tomorrow's one of my favourite days of the week: Natural Gas Storage Day... There's also the BOE Rate Statement, ECB Minimum Bid Rate, US Unemployment - and after the market closes, there's China CPI.

I have this urgent desire to just jump into a trade that I think I need to suppress, but really, are the markets that bad?

+0.07% SBA
+1.12% Roth IRA

+0.38% DJIA
-0.01% Nasdaq
+0.20% S&P

-0.39% FTSE
-0.11% Eurofirst

+1.71% Nikkei
+0.29% Shanghai
+0.43% SENSEX (As long as the Maharajas are happy, I'm happy...)

-0.63% WTI Crude
-1.19% Brent Crude

-0.10% Gold
+0.14% Copper
-0.21% Corn

+1.92% VIX

Tuesday, December 6, 2011

GOLs: Designated Drivers In EU Summit Party...

The EU Summit Party's this week and I have nothing to wear! What I really want is an LYG dress, but I'm a bit disappointed I couldn't get it on sale today as my bid expired at market close.

On the surface, I'm not leading the same miserable trading life as I was before since I discovered the magic of profit-taking on my SBA. However, I haven't been able to buy and sell as freely as before - especially since the pain of my existence - the European debt crisis - has been haunting me with evil laughter every occasion it gets. I've been able to turn it into an opportunity about a third of the time, but there's a lot more untapped potential that I'm not exactly capitalising on.

My only hope for the imminent EU summit is for the deployment of funds from the European Stability Mechanism to begin much earlier than the market expects and that it can also have ECB loan facilities. Either of these will dizzy the bears enough for more upside, but only the latter will give us a Santa Rally armed with a steamroller large enough to send the bears stampeding into 2012. The bears have been well-fed this year, so how fast can they run?

But what if the EU fails? Does my portfolio have what it takes to survive?

I'm going to need to eye the GOLs very carefully. One 'see ya wouldn't want to be ya' move from the GOLs carries a tonne of weight since they're the most savvy traders on earth.

+0.37% SBA
+0.24% Roth IRA

+0.43% DJIA
-0.23% Nasdaq
+0.11% S&P

+0.01% FTSE
-0.36% Eurofirst

-1.39% Nikkei
-0.31% Shanghai
-0.25% SENSEX

+0.64% WTI Crude
+1.10% Brent Crude

+0.97% Gold
+1.02% Copper
+0.69% Corn

+0.04% EUR/USD
+0.02% GBP/USD

+1.04% VIX

It'll most likely be a sleepless night...

Monday, December 5, 2011

We Don't Speak German, But We Can If You Like...

The global markets were all 'we don't speak German, but we can if you like - and we might even try some French, starting with comment allez vous' after France and Germany reached a 'comprehensive agreement' on deeper fiscal union rules in the Euro rescue game. The most notable part underlines a commitment not to force private sector bondholders to take haircuts on any future Eurozone bailouts. Highlight the words future and Eurozone bailouts, meaning there is a commitment to rolling out more Eurozone bailouts, S&P. Separately, Super Mario Monti has already been warning the markets about aggressive ECB action day and night.

S&P stepped along just before the trading day ended, threatening to downgrade the outlook for 15 eurozone nations to negative, but it seems it's largely being shrugged off as European bank ADRs - including LYG and SCGLY - are still making a heavy uphill tread in Extended Hours Trading.

We've got to wait for the Japanese Housewives for confirmation, but although I was hoping for a severe retracement myself last week, I haven't been able to buy successfully yet. Three more days and we'll know. Failing the retracement, I'm going to look for an uptrend continuation pattern to buy over the course of the next several days.

The European leaders at all government levels have stepped up across the board ever since Thanksgiving. This is what we need to put the bears on the proverbial grill and the sacrificial lamb in the form of MF Global has already occurred!

Speaking of sacrifices, I'm officially done with my 3-day fast for 9FM! It was a trying time for me. In the midst of my 24-hour test-drive, I decided the only thing worse than doing a secret 3-day fast that 9FM isn't even going to know about is effectively doing a 4-day one because I'm actually bimbo enough to do a 24-hour test-drive. So I took it up a notch and went the full 72 hours on a water-only fast. Oh, but I roasted the duck and had the discipline not to even take one small bite on Friday, stashing it in the fridge after the cool-off period. I broke my fast last night after spending nearly the full day making a Santa Fe Chicken Soup with a sun-dried tomato and chicken broth base. It was as yummy as 9FM.

Tomorrow, I'm going to try a buy-on-a-dip with LYG and I'm going to continue to monitor my existing positions in BAC, HWD, JRCC, MFG, NMR, SLT, TGB, and WNR. JRCC and SLT seem to have a thing going for one another as their pricing has been moving very closely together. I'm going to consider it one position for now and it'll make me feel a little better about having sold JRCC $1 per share too early so far. Once the Maharajas start putting in their signature karma suture moves, my portfolio will start getting as sultry as Bernanke, who's been avoiding the spotlight lately.

I wish I was a little more like my idols, the GOLs. Are they psychic? They're almost always right on the money!

+0.78% SBA
+1.97% Roth IRA

+0.65% DJIA
+1.10% Nasdaq
+1.03% S&P

+0.28% FTSE
+0.80% Eurofirst

+0.60% Nikkei
-1.16% Shanghai (interesting... looks like China's got the Bwahaha)
-0.25% SENSEX

-0.41% WTI Crude
-0.54% Brent Crude

-1.37% Gold
-0.80% Copper
-0.81% Corn

+1.16% VIX

Friday, December 2, 2011

ForexDiva By Day...

... business owner by night! I know it should probably be the other way around, but it's just as well. I find I'm much more creative at night, which really suits my current arrangement. I've got to cast the net far and wide in order to make up for lost time, but I also feel this is the best time for me to venture on and I've got an excellent value proposition for many more 9FMs.

I've decided to secretly go on a 3-day fast for my first and most favourite 9FM. Fasting is something that's more suited to his religious beliefs, but I'm doing it for my own pious reasons - and in a way, it's very Catholic since Lent is a partial fast, isn't it. Aside from putting in my best work yet for him, I want to make sure that I've really done everything on every level for another 9 figures to come his way, so that's what my fast is about. That's how deep my financial love for him is. I'm on a 24-hour test-drive now and it's certainly not easy and I'm really looking forward to breaking my fast with some roasted garlic-rosemary duck later tonight, after which I won't be able to have another meal for three consecutive days!

Correct me if I'm wrong, but one thing I've noticed with my trading is that I haven't made one forex trade this year, which has actually resulted in a positive P/L overall, though I hasten to say that my paper losses are worse than ever.

I need one delectable buy-on-a-dip opportunity over the next week and I wouldn't mind two!

Though the unemployment rate dipped to 8.6%, we closed on the weak side after a surprisingly fantastic week, but still managed to close above yesterday's close across the board on BAC, CENX, SLT, and WNR. JRCC and TGB closed below yesterday's close, so I'm going to look to these two for buying opportunities.

+0.26% SBA
+0.93% Roth IRA

-0.01% DJIA
+0.03% Nasdaq
-0.02% S&P

+1.15% FTSE
+0.95% Eurofirst

+0.54% Nikkei
-1.10% Shanghai
+2.20% SENSEX (oooh, Maharajas!)

+0.79% WTI Crude
+1.01% Brent Crude

+0.60% Gold
+1.48% Copper
-1.35% Corn

-0.45% EUR/USD
-0.55% GBP/USD


Three Gaps & They're Trapped!

We've had three opening gaps to the upside this week on JRCC as well as CENX - [and even SLT].

I've clearly sold too early on JRCC, missing out on over +15%, but could we potentially see another buying opportunity present itself before the European Summit in Brussels on 8-9 December 2011?

They wouldn't be the bears if they didn't try to knife us back a few gaps with some TETSOB moves. Too bad I won't be in Belgium then...

Thursday, December 1, 2011

Missed the Market Today...

At an ungodly hour this morning, I decided to do some more proposals for my business, resulting in me completely missing my alarm - and therefore, Natural Gas Storage Inventories.

I would rather miss some minor market action than be so engrossed that I could potentially miss paving an even bigger financial path for myself though.

I've made up my mind: by Q1 2012, I'm going to have to bring in more business - and when I do so successfully, leaving my previous job would have been worth it both emotionally and financially. I've avoided discussing the emotional aspect of this lifestyle choice, choosing to hide behind a facade of anger. But in all honesty, behind the opera mask of being a diva, it hurt and though I'm sure my previous employer felt betrayal, no one can feel more betrayed than an employee who has put her heart and soul into her work for 9 consecutive years.

Finally, I felt like a gradual shift in philosophy occurred within me after my lovely business class journey on Cathay Pacific to Hong Kong. So I've been taking action ever since.

As I've got to get ready to meet my new BFF real estate broker since I may have to relocate depending on prevailing market conditions and whether I can find a better but yet more cost effective humble abode, I have to cut straight to today's report card:

+0.73% SBA
-0.07% Roth IRA

-0.21% DJIA
+0.22% Nasdaq
-0.19% S&P

-0.29% FTSE
-0.61% Eurofirst

+1.93% Nikkei
+2.29% Shanghai
+2.23% SENSEX (darn it, should have called 9FM!)

-0.38% WTI Crude
-1.34% Brent Crude

-0.13% Gold
-1.09% Copper
-1.08% Corn

+0.16% EUR/USD
-0.05% GBP/USD

-1.12% VIX

+7.06% WNR

Wednesday, November 30, 2011

You & Me: In the Confessional Booth Right Now...

Last night, after receiving a simple email from 9FM, I spent the night tossing and turning - unable to sleep. All I wanted to do was give him a quick call and tell him how we were financially made for each other. But I decided to wait it out since we've only got but a few more weeks to go.

After such a restless night, I certainly didn't expect the holiday surprise that His Royal Highness, the one and only, Benjamin Shalom had planned for the bears.

Today could have been even more beautiful, but I let go of JRCC way too soon and as I was doing it, I knew it, but I did it anyway. It's become a pattern for me and I've still got the blindspot. Perhaps I need a new prescription for my lenses? What am I not seeing here other than the fact that I'm buying too early during a downtrend and selling too early during an uptrend? Ultimately, this is what kills most traders and after spending so much time on the markets, it's still the single-most important factor that continues to undermine my success and market credibility.

Next time, I must remember: if I should have taken the third bullish signal on the way down, I must at least force myself to take the second or third signal to sell on the way up. It's only fair!
Oh, but those glorious profits were nothing to be ashamed of... yet, if discipline trumped desire, I would most definitely be a lot better off since JRCC ended the day +21.38%.

It's not often that we get global co-ordinated Central Bank Action, but this year, we've had at least two instances. This time, our benefactors included the Fed, BOE, ECB, SNB, BOJ, and the Bank of Canada, as well as emergency response from China. China has kept its cards very close to its chest, but two major Bwahaha movements have been revealed this week, including unveiling its outright desire to invest in western infrastructure as well as today's bank reserve requirement slashing.

Hopefully, these series of stabs were enough to keep the bears in despair. Brazil could take action shortly - and I wonder about India too? What type of karma suture fun could the Yummy Financial Maharajas be planning?

The FT puts it very succinctly: Banks Ready To Act Pre-emptively...

+5.55% SBA
+5.36% Roth IRA

+4.24% DJIA
+4.17% Nasdaq
+4.33% S&P

+3.16% FTSE
+3.60% Eurofirst

-3.27% Shanghai
+0.72% SENSEX

+0.45% WTI Crude
-0.40% Brent Crude

+1.83% Gold
+5.58% Copper
+0.67% Corn

+0.92% EUR/USD
+0.58% GBP/USD

-9.27% VIX

+21.38% JRCC
+12.90% CENX
+7.30% BAC
+9.57% HWD

Tomorrow's Natural Gas Storage Fun Day! I missed out last week, but I'm going to give it another go this week. We've also got Unemployment as well as ISM Manufacturing.

Oh, I Feel So Dumb Right Now!

I could have gotten out of the full JRCC position in the plus if I had just waited another 3 hours...

I wonder if buying on a dip will be considered wishful thinking now?

What the (Pending Home Sales)?

+10.4% m/m?

Someone pinch me for having sold JRCC so early...

OMG... That Was My 9th Time With JRCC!

And it's still as exhilarating as the first...

Profit taking really can be so much fun!

The Glencore Traders and I have only done it six times so far, but the most memorable by far must be with 9FM.

Out of Partial JRCC @ $7.54...

I know... I know... but I haven't taken profit in literally ages!

Will ride rest of the position through, though.

This was the partial entry @ $6.59 per share...

Profit [per share] of $0.95, or +14.41%...

Thank God for co-ordinated Central Bank Action!

Tuesday, November 29, 2011

Market Buddies... Janet's Yellen

Four Bankruptcies, But No Funeral...

Yesterday, I was reflecting on my quote unquote luck. Over the course of the past few years, I've traded my fair share of bankruptcies (Lehman, WaMu, MF, DYN) and have so far been able to avoid major funereal consequences - with the exception of my recent brush with financial death by trading MF. Today's AMR Chapter 11 could have implicated me as well since I had thought about trading it a few weeks back, but stopped myself.

In contrast, the paper losses I've suffered of late seem to have had a much more significant impact on my portfolio than anything.

I've figured out part of the trading equation, but if I'm suffering from paper losses more than half the time I'm trading, that's a very inefficient and inappropriate use of capital. There has to be a better way - and if anything, next time the market turns bearish, I'm going to trade the second or third bullish signal I get rather than the first since that might actually save me from stepping into too deep of a puddle. Watching VIX has definitely helped somewhat...

I placed a one-cancels-all buy-on-a-dip order on CENX, HERO, or SKS today that didn't get hit. I spent the rest of the day daydreaming about how 9FM and I are going to be like Europe and have a deeper fiscal union. In less than three weeks, we're going to find out the results of my first collaboration with 9FM... Just talking about it makes my heart beat faster! I'm breathless with anticipation of the beautiful fiscal harmony that awaits 9FM and I. Until we get those results, he will doubt my work, but the proof will be in the pudding. And if I'm all hot air, he will see. And if my work is really capable of catapulting him into a whole new stratosphere, it'll be equally apparent.

In my heart of hearts, gaining 9FM's respect will be the ultimate reward because he was pretty hard on me at times, just like the market. But he saved me and gratitude trumps any other feeling I have for him. I wouldn't mind another 9FM...

+0.15% SBA
-1.39% Roth IRA

+0.28% DJIA
-0.47% Nasdaq
+0.22% S&P

+0.46% FTSE
+0.75% Eurofirst
+2.30% Nikkei
+1.23% Shanghai
-0.98% SENSEX

-4.64% VIX

+1.71% WTI Crude
+1.67% Brent Crude

+0.23% Gold
+1.12% Copper
+0.84% Corn

+0.11% EUR/USD
+0.68% GBP/USD

Monday, November 28, 2011

Princess of China

My ultimate idols, Coldplay, wrote me a song! Oh you, use your chart as a weapon, and it Hurts Like Heaven!

Plus, China stepped in and saved the world - for now... Together with record Black Friday sales, the bears started heading for the hills as the bulls seized the fort and served them with an opening gap that must have sent the bears into a fitful hallucinogenic state that is at once painful and disgraceful.

Nasdaq 2593.32, or the annual 50% Fib level, is still 65.98 points away and if things get really crazy, the bulls can easily achieve this within just one session. The previous time we broke and closed above this, the battle got fierce! But the previous time, we also let the bears get away with a few days of chop, so they didn't have to lose their shirts. This time, we zapped them with an opening gap...

Will the move up to Nasdaq 2593.32 coincide with Brent Crude pushing past $109.50? That's been a significant source of resistance and if we break through this, WNR may still have a rebound opportunity.

+3.04% SBA
+2.41% Roth IRA

+2.59% DJIA
+3.52% Nasdaq
+2.92% S&P

+2.87% FTSE
+3.63% Eurofirst
+1.56% Nikkei (Go, go Japanese Housewives!)

+1.18% WTI Crude
+2.01% Brent Crude

+1.91% Gold
+1.98% Corn

I'm going to have to look at some more charts tonight... Due to a lack of discipline, my trading legs were wide open, leaving me with too many losses and barely enough capital to fight back. There's just enough, but I really need to deploy it well and at the right time or my troops will be eating soup for some time.

P.S. CENX +8.11%

P.P.S. VIX -6.79%

P.P.P.S. SENSEX +3.01%