Monday, May 31, 2010

So This Is What Delayed Gratification Is All About...

I had my first subsistence farm harvest today and am pleased to report I'm a much better gardener than a trader. There was more than the handful of lettuce required for making a salad and so I did what any Awful Bigoted Woman would do and made a very nice salad served with a self-invented spicy lemon truffle oil vinaigrette and warm goat cheese. If the presentation were any better, I would be my usual TETSOB self and show my lovely salad off. Gordon Ramsay would have no complaints though. In terms of flavour, he would probably have thought it was spot on.

I now have to wait about another month before I can do another harvest, but I'm willing to wait. I'll have an entire month to think about what to do with that lettuce. Maybe I'll do a nice salad served alongside my signature chicken grilled in Provence herbs. It's awfully gratifying to be harvesting my very own lettuce, but I do have to say it wasn't that much work for me. So much easier than trading. Just sow the seeds and water every once in a while.

If only trading could be a guaranteed harvest, but this bit of subsistence farming I've been doing has shown me that not every seed becomes lettuce or arugula or whatever. I've had some arugula that's refused to grow.

So, even though I recently proclaimed that I'm a diversified, financially dignified woman, it made me think maybe I've got to diversify some more with my portfolio. Nearly all my investments are still heavily biased towards the FWF sector. I did some more homework this weekend and another undervalued + overlooked sector could be electric utilities, especially since many investors are selling now due to some proposed tax increase on dividends. I won't go off on a tangent on how unfair taxation is since I'll be all Naomi Campbell again. Anyway, recall that I've been waiting for a buy signal on AEE and AEP for a while. Dividend yields in many electric utilities are now approaching 6% and could even get a bit higher if there's further selling. At this level, they're almost like municipals bonds with the potential of share appreciation as well. Place these in a Roth IRA and they've got instant trade appeal.

I'm still waiting to catch two falling knives in the forex market. At this point, my forex trading is kind of like one of those work at home type propositions that never sort of crystallise. Even more ridiculous is this story... You've heard of the golden parachute, but a golden coffin?

I was so flattered when Morningstar's Matthew Warren recommended BCS as a buy though. I'm still doubting whether I made the right move jumping into BCS by selling MS. Perhaps I could look for another buy signal on MS. For me, JPM could only be considered attractive at around the $30 level.

I ended last week with:

-1.17% on the SBA
-1.3% on the Roth IRA

To digress, I don't drive since the roads are much safer without me, but if I did, I wouldn't mind a ride like this... found on the same street as the FWF car I saw last time. Don't judge a street by its potholes. Plenty of these in this part of Belgium and even more after the global financial crisis, I might say. Why don't I ever bump into their owners? Why?

Thursday, May 27, 2010

Reinventing the Squeal

I missed out on the move up with the GOL, but how can I complain when the rest of my portfolio had such a beautiful performance?

+5.34% on the SBA
+3.51% on the Roth IRA

This gives me a bit more confidence to try to march on and try to recover my account. So much to recover... so little time. After all, in a few weeks, I'm going to turn one and thirty. I have no excuse to act like a child any longer.

I hope there won't be any further retracements, but you never know.

I promised myself I'll look at some more charts this weekend even though all I wanna do is have some fun. That and the GOL of course. I'm going to ride their trend and they'll be my new BFFs. We'll make it into the Forex Peerage together... oh yes we will...

A heads up on Harry Winston - he's alpha again!

+8.08% today... earnings report due 2 June 2010...

Keep it up, Harry. We're counting on you to give us some more Ohs and of course 0's...

Tuesday, May 25, 2010

Whoa... Did I Really Promise Everyone Oysters On My Previous Post?

I should totally be ashamed of myself considering all the negative price action we saw the past few days. Unless you were short, you wouldn't have had any plaisir at all...


-0.42% on the SBA
-0.62% on the Roth IRA

I also had a Those Pips Were Made For Wokin' Moment with the GOL today. If I didn't get all fraidy again, I would have had another 60 pips or so... I got in at 1.428, right near the day's lows. I had been waiting I don't know how many days for this moment, but I got out at +62.20 pips. Not much of a trade considering I had lost over 900 pips the last time our pips intertwined.

I absolutely love the Queen - and who knew that lettuce would grow so fast even in a subsistence farm!

I'm going to now try to buy back again at or near this 1.428 level. Hopefully, my GOL and I will soon be singing that song from Laissez Faire soon:

You are the sun,
I am the sky,
Together we'll live in [financial] paradise...
Our hopes and dreams will come alive
In [financial] paradise...

Oh yes!

But right now, the GOL are singing that John Mayer song, I Don't Trust Myself (With Loving You) The GOL Remix... Seriously! They've been to 1.425 so many times recently. It's like... just do it already!

John Mayer... talented guy, but way too narcissistic.

Sunday, May 23, 2010

Confessional Booth Time, Volume 230510

OMG... it's my third anniversary of forex trading! And I'm still acting like a forex trading virgin / bimbo and being absolutely naive! I know they say that angry sex is supposed to be really hot, but I wouldn't know. All I know is that angry trading is not.

So, I'm going to try to put this recent blow by blow blown up account incident behind me once and for all by first resenting with all my heart and then repenting. I'll take my fellow HSFT through a new trading fantasy towards the end of this post and hopefully, we'll all be having oysters very soon.

There's nothing we can do to change the past, but there's a technique we can use to trick ourselves into doing better on the next trade. The principle is that we go over everything that went wrong on this trade and then ask ourselves: if this were the perfect trade, what would I have done? This then focuses your mind on taking responsibility for the trade and then hopefully winning the next time round. It opens your mind to new possibilities as well. Expand your perspective, expand your bottom line - that sort of thing.

First, the resenting! I was recently doing some research for something totally unrelated and found some woman named Mrs Forex advertising the fact that she didn't know anything about forex trading, but was making six figures a year just by using a forex trading robot that does all the trading for her. It got me so ticked off that I was spending all this time and QU tuition on learning about forex trading, attending every webinar / event that I could, looking at charts almost every day and all I have to prove it are a total five figure loss and 554 pages of a forex trading journal where my BFF forex broker will always have a special place in my charts.

I further resent the fact that I spend all this time holding other people to a supposedly higher standard by criticising the FWFOCH for going all pork-wire and my Dad for taking miscalculated risks and abusing me. With my recent trades, I have become a FWF to myself and my financial future. I have succumbed to pork chops myself via my TETSOB. Moreover, I have become a bona fide financial hypocrite for running other people's stops for a month complete with the Bwahaha HTEL and the moment my pain threshold got hit, I became a raving two-year old Naomi Campbell with an anger management issue. I forgot what made me successful: a clear head and objective, rational thinking. I am highly disappointed in myself because this moment in my financial history is Total Second Runner-Up Material. I was emotional and I walked away from objectivity when the writing was clearly right there on the wall.

After my loss, I became like that Harvard imposter. I wasn't true to myself and I wasn't true to my principles, which should have been the true embarrassment. The loss itself didn't need to be embarrassing, but stepping away from what I believed in and not trading it was. The truth always come out - especially in trading.

So there! I think I've had enough of my resenting and should like to do some repenting for all my trading sins. If this were the perfect trade, it would go like this:

It would be about the time I'm in Switzerland checking out the Rolex (and the Tall European Men) instead of the forex. I am in a GBP/USD long from around the 1.51426 area. I average in at 1.4828 and get a very nice retracement back up. This time, instead of shooting myself in the foot by getting out of one mini lot prior to the Scream It From the Rooftops UK GDP announcement on 30 March and taking profit for only +97.4 pips, I allow the Guys of London to brush their pips against mine some more and get out on any of the bearish divergences happening on MACD at the 1.53 area, leaving me with over +300 pips.

I would then slip into my little red dress bullish divergence at 1.515 again and start brushing my pips against the Men of New York with my little black dress bearish divergence at 1.55, banking another +350 pips. Since people started talking about the GOL's Hung Parliament around the time of mid April and we had the European Debt Crisis mounting at that point, so I could probably have done a S&R with the Men of New York at 1.55 and used all that downwards momentum in favour of my account instead of against my account. We would be doing something totally daring and innovative, but the potential trading plaisir would be too tempting to resist.

This would have been especially relevant when I first noticed Bernanke floating the USD bull boat on 27 April. The more alpha me could have sold even then at 1.53 something, riding the Men of New York instead of the Guys of London for a very tantalising spin that gives us a minimum +1100 pip win.

By this time, I'd be up +1750 pips with a bike sized account, which is my version of Financial Heaven. I'd be my BFF forex broker's biggest client. Well, maybe not quite.

My toes would be curling, I'd probably be noisier than usual, and I would be the bona fide Queen of Pips + JBQ + Miss Equities 2010. All of the GOL would be buying me drinks and all of the Muscular Men of New York would be giving me winks. I'd reject them all except, possibly, for the most special one.

So back to forex trading reality... this proves to me that I could have been a lot more disciplined with this trade. I could have been a lot more imaginative too. It also shows me that there's still money to be made by just doing what I've been doing all along- only with more variation. Who cares if that Mrs Forex is really making six figures with her trading robots? My positions could still be very hot if I just once in a while put the TETSOB aside.

Tomorrow, I've got a day off and I'm going to spend an hour of it attending Professor Brian Dolan's webinar. I am looking forward to growing up now and becoming an adult in the trading world. I may still be chaste, but all of my hard work won't go to waste.

Last Friday's report card:

+3.41% on the SBA
+2.70% on the Roth IRA

This week, I have to make my way back from Fool to Cool.

Friday, May 21, 2010

Do You Have Your Glasses On?

Or perhaps some number 2 pencils?

The market's oscillating between panic and manic, but the GOL are saying: "We shall not go for a ride until the fear subsides."

I have been wanting, needing, waiting for the GOL to justify my love since 1.54 something. They ignored me all the way to 1.42 something and took away an important part of my trading identity. They do touch me on every level in the most profound SPF kind of way.

I shall now wait for them to start up the car and then make a jump for their treasure trunk. This one should hopefully take us all the way to 1.70 at the minimum and if they get up to 1.80, I'll want to take off their glasses and perhaps maybe they'll be the ones with the wardrobe malfunction...

Timing is everything now since my bike is smaller than ever.

Thursday, May 20, 2010

Bernanke... We Like Your Beard?

Today can only be described with one word - the F one...

I was not only the mistress, but an effing poor man's mistress by jumping into BCS. Perhaps it wasn't such a bad move since I moved from MS into BCS and had some low cut barely there single digit profits with MS. MS broke my entry level today, so I would have been plucked either way.

-4.05% on the effing SBA
-3.14% on the effing Roth IRA

Does anyone need any other effing proof that I'm from effing Brooklyn? LOL. I'll stop with the Fs now, but I should like to think that pretty soon, the USD bulls will be getting some QU punishment. The most important economic data besides Bernanke's JNSB - US unemployment - came out much worse than expected. Now the tides are going to turn, so USD bulls, don't be like the PIIGS.

I didn't take the one trade I should have taken... the EUR/CHF Daily bullish divergence I was looking at. So, now I have to plot my revenge because I'm like a volcano that hasn't erupted in 100 years. I got slapped in the Facebook and ended up StumblingUpon a Tweet announcing I Dugg up a bona fide cubic circonia - then got stopped out right before what I still think will be the biggest reversal to hit the GOL since the Hung Parliament Incident. Stubborn? Yes!

My colleague from New York stopped by my office and broke down in tears after we started discussing the EUR. I've been in the presence of two adult men over the past six months who have not been able to suppress their financial pain and they cried in my presence. I can't help it if I radiate that Nurse ForexDiva kind of vibe.

My financial pain is nothing compared to these people, who are a minimum of 15 years older than me. One is even more than twice my age, on the verge of retirement.

C'est comme ca! Even if you work hard, it doesn't mean you'll get rewarded.

But if we give up, we're done. So, I say even if we end up fighting for a hollow victory, it's better than being hollow and having no passion.

25 May is Bernanke's next Big Moment. Do you ever wonder what's going through his mind when he QU testifies? It could be something like... we're going to huff and puff and run your stops now!

Wednesday, May 19, 2010

10,000 Maniacs... From Yes to Mess...

Last night, Germany told us: "We have nothing to fear but bears itself," resulting in a very precarious see-saw type sell-off in EUR/USD. GBP/USD did not hold onto the resultant losses and after US inflation data disappointed, we're seeing the 10,000 Maniacs again in DJIA. Nikkei, not surprisingly, is now also nearing that level.

Is the tide shifting again? Remember the previous time we saw a retracement back to the 10,000 Maniacs, a lot of people and their WTYMs got faked out. So we'll have to wait and see if this level holds. S & P 500 is near the 1000 psychological level, which Eurofirst 300 already broke. This article totally piqued my interest today, not least because it reminded me of my trading several weeks back when I committed semi-financial suicide with my long GBP/USD trade. I was just like King Canute in this story and I, Queen of Pips, got soaked. Now, I'm already daydreaming of riding Professor GOL's trend with an even smaller bike even if the recent turn in events had me singing "I can't pip... if pippin' is without you."

Still, it's got me thinking about why I always get affected by retracements and it hit me like the tide. I am a collector by nature and I've been asking myself... has this inclination hurt my portfolio in any way? And the answer, of course, is a straight, resounding, loud as a belle yes!

I went from yes to mess because my instinct is always to buy. So in order to avoid this in the future, I'd have to make a conscientious effort to rebalance my portfolio every once in a while. I should like a SPF who's a perma-bear to counter my eternally bullish rose-coloured-glasses trading style.

Trading fantasies aside, the most absurd thing about this sell-off is that people went from selling off European assets to purchasing US Treasuries for low cut, barely there single digit yields. That's like selling APKS stuff for hundreds of pounds - low production cost, high profit margins. LOL. That, my friends, is the power of a brand. And unfortunately, it's very possible that Europe has lost its lustre - at least for the time being.

Oh, no! Don't tell me I'm going to miss out on my chance to ride my Professor GOL's trend on trend...

I must get back to my charts!


-0.82% on SBA
+0.42% on Roth IRA

Tuesday, May 18, 2010

Don't Break My Chart, My Achy Breaky Chart...

I want to hide behind a coral reef! I don't even know WTF happened today. It seemed everything was fine during the European session and then all of a sudden, someone turned on the stove and everyone's on fire. UK inflation should have been fanning the GBP Men flame, but the London Alpha Males still have their trading legs zipped.

My report card would be all F's today and my SPF would probably be telling me we should do some one-on-one QU tutoring tonight:

-2.66% on the standard brokerage
-2.28% on the Roth IRA

My big question remains: will the GOL run for the 1.35 hill?

And should I put my TETSOB aside and try to bank some moola by going with the Muscular + Stellar Men of New York?

Oh, dear God! EUR/JPY and EUR/USD both look scarier than my portfolio. What I'm not seeing is the chop that usually precedes the pop on any of the pairs I'm looking at. I will wait for this flatlining chart and then take action. I don't want to jump into a short at exactly the wrong Don't Break My Chart, My Achy Breaky Chart timeframe.

This is a moment to remember: If your account is big, don't be a pig. If your account is small, don't risk it all.

Hahaha... the Short Sellers are getting blamed again. Let them sell like hot cakes... we can then buy C at $1 again or BAC at $2 something or... the list goes on and on. The Short Sellers will get hit with a retracement on their way out!

I'm officially a bearish divergence again... assets and self-confidence going down + trading ego going up.

I should have waited to buy BCS at $17... this would have added at least another 10% profit potential if it tests the 52WH, but I had to be the ultimate market slut didn't I?

GOL or MONY or hide behind a coral reef? That is the question...

To My BFFs... Especially The Ones Who Sold Me at 1.54...

Sorry the street isn't very appealing, but it's the car that matters.

Monday, May 17, 2010

Rusty On International Markets

Oh, gosh! Rusty thinks the USD will continue going up too?

At some point, I was about -3% on each portfolio today. I hid behind a coral reef and ended the day still in negative territory, but did not sell any other stocks...

-1.49% on the standard brokerage account
-1.71% on the Roth IRA

I wonder if jumping from MS into BCS was a good idea at all. Time will tell!

I am not going to touch the GOL until later this week, but when I do, their stove will be very hot. I'm hoping to cook up some pips a la GOL extra spicy. I do wonder if they'll run towards the 1.35 hill since EUR/USD broke Lehman level lows and GBP/USD hasn't yet. The EUR/USD would probably be leading this dance for once, so I'd have to watch the EUR/USD rate and once there's a slowdown in the descent of the EUR/USD, it'd be much safer to be in a GBP/USD position then.

I'm noticing smaller and smaller candles on EUR/CHF Daily, which means that the action should be settling down soon. There's a nice RSI bullish divergence on EUR/CHF Daily right now. Hey, maybe that's my new Bwahaha?

Arrggggghhhhh... USD/CHF went up to 1.1455 after I got QU liquidated?

This is a moment I hate being a small account with big dreams! But I am and I shall have to adapt. I should like to have fetal positions, but adult profits! Risk very little, but have a lot of the upside! Be a S&R momentum player all the time!

Oh, professor!

Stubborn As Miu Miu

I watched my salary decline minute by minute today since half of it is tied to the bullish performance of EUR/USD. This time, I don't feel as much financial pain as I did when I was paid only in USD and was living on the EUR and had to pay as much as 57% more for everything, which becomes much more exacerbated if you're a shopaholic like moi.

That was a painful part of my financial history that I'd much rather forget. However, I like to think that with all the technical analysis I'm doing, it's going to pay off one day for me big time. Strategy was not what killed me on my trade; it was trading ego and poor money management. My open relationships philosophy went down the drain as soon as the market started moving in my favour ever so slightly. I lost my marbles, my standards, and unfortunately, my trading chastity.

I like to think that my trading fantasies are not any wilder than most other people. My most OTT one to date involves the proverbial sexy professor of finance (under the age of 33) - complete with dark-rimmed glasses and dark Armani suit with dark Hermes tie - seductively showing me how to ride a trend with a decadent, to-die-for contradictorian chart.

The room would be really dark and somehow, we'd be the only ones in the room, but it'd still be really steamy even though we're practically wavelengths apart. I'd accidentally, maybe subconsciously on purpose, press the wrong button, resulting in a wardrobe malfunction that sets me back 60 pips.

He'd brush his laser pointer gently against the projection screen and tell me... comment allez vous, ForexDiva? Now, let's go back to dreaming about 6 figures and trading even with that minor slip!

Right... so the GBP Men totally got clobbered today. I have to admit I was wrong, but I was already proven wrong at about the 1.45 level. Tell me it's not getting only slightly claustrophobic. I'm looking for the perfect moment to go back to my contradictorian roots - contradicting everyone and anyone. For this to work, I have to remember why some of my other trades worked - or didn't.

My HSFT moment could come when:

1. Bernanke starts sinking the USD again.
2. Some USD positive data starts coming in and the market moves in favour of the counter currency rather than the USD.
3. Obviously, a slowdown in the deceleration of the counter currency against the USD. I'm looking for a chart that looks like it's flatlining.
4. Finally, I'm going to look at JPY crosses.
5. And finally, finally, finally, if all else fails, I'm going to do a MAT or S&R - hopefully, this time, with some semblance of trading discipline.

I took the time to look at the retail landscape this weekend (euphemism for shopping). I noticed I wasn't the only one shopping. And mind you, I live right here in Euro-land. It feels like the world is collapsing, but bid sizes are massive. Hermes was packed when I went to collect my Kelly.

I'm now waiting for the proverbial Japanese Housewives to go shopping in European stock markets.

The first to run are often the investors with the most to lose and I'd say most of them are safe - just waiting for the right one to come along.

Friday, May 14, 2010

Out of MS... Into BCS!

I put my TETSOB aside and called it a play with MS, getting out just now at about $27. Options are not looking good today and if Gold-diggers Suck was any example, this could become a long and drawn out affair. I should not have gotten greedy, but I was looking to play a retest of the $35 level. Options In, Options Out!

I used the proceeds to get into Barclays (BCS). This could potentially work out really well for me over the longer term. First, I got more shares out of BCS than staying in MS. Next, it's no secret that I'm into GBP/USD. If GBP/USD goes up like I think it will, this will affect BCS in dollar terms. It'll be worth more dollars over the longer term. Together with the share appreciation I anticipate on BCS, this is total Trend On Trend Material!

Based on options chains analysis, BCS might still get to $17 again, but I did not want to wait and if I get plucked for $1, that'll be fine by me because the risk:reward is just too good to resist and I just had to touch BCS at that level.

I should have sold MS last week and gotten into BCS when it got to $16 something, but I was emotionally volatile.

I guess I still am, but I'm taking action. Shoot first, think later. LOL. Hopefully, I haven't shot myself in the foot yet again.

In terms of risk:reward...

MS at $35 would have been about a 33% gain minus commissions.
BCS at $25.68 would be about a 42% gain minus commissions.

April Flowers Bring May Showers...

This is just not working.

So far in the session, my portfolio's down:

-2.42% on the standard brokerage
-1.47% on the Roth IRA

I was out 60 pips yesterday due to two GBP/USD long. One of them was especially frustrating. I entered the first trade several hours before Bernanke was scheduled to turn up the heat on the USD longs. I thought I'd pressed the wrong button when I got QU stopped out at -30 pips. I then got into a second long position a few minutes pre-Bernanke and was up over 50 pips almost instantaneously. However, I set a limit at 1.57 and it retraced.

I was absolutely appalled when I later checked on the trade and noticed I was stopped out again at -30 pips. I was totally in WTF territory then, but it turns out there's an automatic setting on my trading platform that sets a stop loss order of 30 pips, which I hadn't noticed before. This saved me in the short term, but couldn't it have done that with my previous losing trades when I had that TETSOEU moment. Whatever... I'm not sure I'm so into stops anyway - no matter what my BFF Forex Broker says. Risk:Reward... that, I'm into.

The London Alpha Males are definitely out to lunch or something. We're testing 1.45 again and I'm going to have to watch this level very carefully now. This will hereforth be known as The Level ForexDiva Got Plucked. I'm going to draw a special colour coded line right there on my beloved charts.

I've been examining my trading attitude lately. We can't have it both ways. It's either I give up on the market entirely or I have to learn to live with its quote unquote habits. I can't love it when I'm winning and hate it when I'm losing. And more importantly, I can't go into hibernation mode when I have a bad trade. Whatever happens, if you stop trading, you stop yourself from moving forward. You may think you're preventing the further deterioration of your account, but the longer you wait, the longer you're bait.

Yes, you know it's true, HSFT!

Wednesday, May 12, 2010

On the Menu

ForexDiva: Sunny Side Up
ForexDiva: Slow Roasted a la Hung Parliament (that turned out not to be so hung)
ForexDiva: Toasted like an everything bagel by the Men of New York and brushed with pips

Scratch... scratch... scratch, like a Fraidy Cat, all that and hopefully replace with:

ForexDiva - Even if you wanted to buy me, you couldn't afford me with my triple A rated TETSOB attitude and three figure forex trading account... The thing is I'm naive enough (and don't have enough of a life?) to think that I can grow that account back and even make back all I've lost so far plus some. Turning three figures into six... turning five figures into seven... turning seven into nine... adding more zeroes to our accounts - that's everyone's ultimate unfulfilled, underutilised talent type trading fantasy, isn't it. And if there isn't a market, our zeroes will always remain two.

So is this real? Apparently, I'm not the only one with a trading ego and how unappealing is it that I've actually used similar phraseology in my posts? That letter sounds like one I could have written. Oh, gosh...

However, I think the average person on Wall Street probably doesn't even get paid close to $85K. There are only a few big banks on Wall Street and not everyone works there. It's a Fabulous Fib that everyone's six figures. Keeping up with the Joneses is a very big fiscal responsibility. I sometimes wonder if it's not better to have a job where a Hermes Kelly wouldn't matter as much, but then, I think nah, it'll always matter to me.

+1.08% on the standard brokerage
-0.01% on the Roth IRA

Why shouldn't we be surprised that MS is into client torture too? I should probably sell, but options aren't looking too bad.

Yields on 30 year Municipals AAA through A are all straight up.

If I find I'm still in that You Can Take the Girl Out of Brooklyn, But You Can't Take the Brooklyn Out of the Girl Mood, I'll need to take a few days off. I don't want to get accused of being unworthy of my Hermes Kelly, but even if I do, it doesn't matter. I am a new woman after this Blow By Blow Blown Up Account Incident. But then again, I always think I'm a new woman after some incident.

Tuesday, May 11, 2010

Mirror, Mirror...

Oh, in case anyone was wondering... here's my new trend. I'm growing more and more attached to it, blow by blow...

Quote Unquote Oh, You Make My Chart Stop!

I know just the thing to make me feel better!

I'm going to get new rose-coloured Sexy Librarian Type Glasses with dark red frames so I can give Tall European Men the Come Hither Yet Go Away Ice Ice Baby Look. Which one, you ask? Let's start with the Guys of London! It took months to get them down to 1.45, but within days of the Hung Parliament Incident, they're testing 1.50 again. That's alpha! The speed and the ferocity... it makes my chart stop!

I am still livid today and I should probably be in rehab for throwing those Naomi Campbell style trading tantrums the past few posts and wishing everyone and their word to your mothers a very big Bwahaha HTEL triple-A rated Wicked Witch of the West evil retracement. Sorry, I meant it, but I hope it didn't happen. At the end of the day, we can all be Happy Shiny BFF Forex Traders if we put the TETSOBs aside. I admit I've been an above average one.

This incident made me realise... I've always been afraid that the Miscalculated Risk Gene runs in my veins. Well, it seems it somewhat does and if I don't control it, I'll become # 1 Market Slut.

How unfair is it that after I got quote unquote liquidated, the market retraces right back to where it was before the quote unquote liquidation? But it's a market reality and not a stretch of the imagination. I don't even want to get into the extent to which it is unfair because I'll be able to write 50,000 dramatic pages on it, but I gave myself some financial dignity today by reinvigorating my trading account with some quote unquote capital. It is now a respectable three figures! Laugh all you want. I'm being transparent here. I might have been the Woman Who Couldn't Satisfy the GOL's Trend On Trend, but I'm not going to become the Woman Who Broke ForexDiva's Bank Account.

I still need time to cool off though. When I heat up, you don't want to be (anywhere) near me.

+0.62% on the standard brokerage account
-0.76% on the Roth IRA

Steam still rising from the top of my head...

I'm going to work up the courage to trade again and thank God that I didn't do anything even crazier like average into this trade.

Keep it up, GOL!

Monday, May 10, 2010

Gordon Brown, He's Gonna Step Down!

The UK media is labelling this as a desperate attempt, which obviously means they've never seen my blog.

The way I blew up my forex account (again) was like... a trip down a long flight of GBP/USD stairs that led directly to slipping on a pebble that brought me down the USD/CHF cliff.

I don't know what to do about my affair with the GOL, which was all Monopoly Turned Scrabble Turned Strip Poker - as in We See London, We See France, We See ForexDiva's APKS Stuff. GOL, do you still want me to ride your trend? I really need you to keep it up this time and if you'd like to do it slow, I'm OK with that.

I won the consolation prize today:

+4.97% on the standard brokerage account
+3.21% on the Roth IRA

Did it matter that I was semi-spot-on about a few market metrics recently?

Today happened to be a day when a few of these observations, such as money flowing into European markets, demonstrated by Eurofirst 300 being up +7.39%, and an exodus from gold into oil + exodus from bonds (also a few posts back) actually occurred, but it never matters if you don't end up making money from it! This trend needs to continue for the rally to be sustainable. I have a secret metric that I'm looking for to happen, but I'm going to keep it top secret... Oh, whatever! I'll tell you, but you have to promise to keep it top secret... It is for yields on short term CDs on the secondary market to increase, which would signify investor confidence taking flight. If people are willing to get out of their CDs, then that is the investing equivalent of asking a guy if he'd like to come up for coffee. Money has to flow somewhere - into equities, real estate, etc. I am patiently waiting for this Magical + Blissful Moment. Who knows if I'm right?

I am still so ticked off about how I got plucked with my long GBP/USD trendship with benefits in the making and how bimbo I was. Most people won't understand how I can be so ticked off about a bike size account trade (i.e. one mini lot material), but I was working so hard on that account and I was going to scale it up after my PDO was done. I was convinced that this would be my personal pivot point where I would break all previous resistance levels and resistance would finally become support. Now, I'm not even in the mood to look for my absolute favourite trade setups - the little black dress and the little red dress.

Even Brian Dolan was saying how there would be a relief rally after the Hung Parliament Incident. Well, those were not his exact words, but something to that effect.

I'm going to have to listen to what Professor Dolan has to say from now on! I don't want to get plucked again!

WTF to the 300 Trillionth Power...

I chose to be in a pipless marriage with the GOL for a few weeks and then got into a de-ranged marriage with USD/CHF and now my full account is plucked.

It doesn't get more bimbo than this, does it?

Darling, you couldn't have saved us with your remarks last week?


This was one bit of tuition, but I've learned a very important lesson. If you got liquidated or quote unquote stopped out, which is just a euphemism for getting plucked, and the price moves in your favour again very quickly, the best thing you can do is pluck the market right back by getting in as closely as possible in your original direction at the level you got plucked. In my case, I was stuck in that de-ranged marriage with Franc and couldn't get in at 1.451 right before Non-Farm Pay Time last week.

Am I ticked off in that WTF to the 300 Trillionth Power way? Square that and then times it by 500 trillion and add another 800 billion! Who cares if that equation made sense or not? The point is I am effing ticked off - especially at those GOCP (Greek Oedipus Complex People).

But I am now going to stop being disappointed in myself, acknowledge my part in the plucking, and finally learn not to get plucked again. God knows I've been plucking a lot of people myself over the past four months. Bwahaha, Short Sellers! You'll get plucked all the way to 1.70 on GBP/USD and 1.45 on EUR/USD.

Sunday, May 9, 2010

Confessional Booth Time, Volume 090510: Unbreak My Chart

OMG... why? Why? I need to tell my portfolio to behave! Skip my JNSB is you'd like and scroll right to the chart of the matter.

Oh, I have my 28 cm Hermes Kelly Sellier in black box calf leather with palladium hardware, by the way. I didn't bring the wrong amount of cash or anything bimbo of the sort. In fact, the sales representative reinforced my purchase decision by complimenting me on how I am totally the Hermes Kelly type. Obviously, she's never read my blog.

It especially seems like a total hollow victory after evaluating my mediocre performance over the past few weeks. And to make matters worse, having it in my hands made me realise the Hermes Birkin is the one I really, really, really want. I'm already dreaming about a bespoke two-tone Hermes Birkin in blue jean togo leather with contrast stitching, canvas, and palladium hardware. It's not that I don't like my Hermes Kelly. It's perfect for business meetings, but it is a bit of a structured bag and I have a frazzled, beautiful disaster type of style. It's also a bit of an impractical bag. I keep pushing all the wrong buttons lately. Not just one - all! I'm asking myself do I know how to appreciate what I have? And I ask myself... will I finally get my hands on the Hermes Birkin that I really want?

Since this Gold-diggin' PIIGS + European Debt Crisis + Hung Parliament + Wrong-Button-Pressin' Incident, my portfolio became # 1 Drama Queen and swooned under pressure. Was it a computer glitch or human error? And for the like-minded cynics out there, was it a deliberate act of bwahaha HTEL triple-A rated evil designed to fake everyone and their word to your mothers out before the biggest rally to hit Wall Street hits? Sorry, Mommy Mom, I didn't mean you!

-11% on the standard brokerage

-24% on the Roth IRA

-952.6 pips on the forex trading account

My only saving grace was selling a partial position in BAC after analysing some options chains and realising I could potentially buy back between now and July at around the $14 or $15 level. So, I sold at $17 something, even if it wasn't at the recent top. But I am a woman with a long term rose-coloured vision, so I'm going to buy more C when I get a chance.

I'd like to now take you through how I forked over my moola to the forex market, who told me, "keep the change," with just two trades. This was a longstanding pipless marriage and I hedged myself with a USD/CHF long at precisely the wrong time at precisely the wrong level. And I was hanging on and on to a trade that I thought would be Hung Parliament defying.

Recall when the market first started really getting panicky over the European Debt Crisis. This was about the 1.52 something level on GBP/USD about the time of 11 April 2010, where I saw a beautiful contradictorian bearish divergence formation. Some news on a bailout came out that weekend and plucked everyone up to the high 1.54s on the Sunday open. I waited for a retracement and S&R'ed at 1.5443, only to realise if I had stayed in my GBP/USD short, I would have still been able to make money a day or two later.

Still, there were a minimum of 5 touches higher than my entry thereafter, but because I was looking at a Weekly Chart where we had some bullish divergence going on, I thought I'd be able to ride this up to at least last year's high of 1.70. I got really worked up with the APKS Woman Who Rode the GOL's Trend with An Account the Size of a Bike fantasies with the potential double bottom that was forming on the Weekly Chart. The bullish divergence turned the stove right on and I thought seasonality was on my side!

In hindsight, a few milestones should have signalled that the writing was on the wall and I have to admit, Happy Shiny Forex Traders, I have sinned! Even up until 27 April, the Guys of London were still touching my 1.55 erogenous zone and I thought we'd finally get some rapid consummation to the upside when they Wham Bam Thank You Ma'am'ed us with a break below the 1.54 zone, which was also very smokin', due to some Fraidy Cat Hung Parliament Excuse. The market pronounced us Ran and Strife. I know how bad that one is, OK?

So, how should I have seen the writing that was clearly and avidly on the wall?

First, FOMC resulted in a USD positive move. When is Bernanke ever USD positive? Shift in sentiment right there, but I was blinded by love.

People stopped looking at UK data because it was just so poor and started getting fraidy about the GOL's Hung Parliament. Who knew it would be so big and get so out of hand, causing me to run my bike right into the proverbial 18 foot pole? The truth is, if the market thinks it's big, it doesn't matter if it's actually big. Perception is what matters and in this case, poor UK data + Hung Parliament = trend on trend, but I was blinded by the promise of risk:reward.

Technically, the break below 1.53 should have told me to hit the golden parachute. I had that level drawn on my Weekly Chart and ignored it due to TETSOB and because 1.54 and 1.55 were still in play.

So why should I even listen to myself right now? I have no idea. All I know is that if I traded myself into this, I can trade myself out of it.

This Weekly Chart bullish divergence is still on according to me. At the end of the day, lack of money management and TETSOB in overdrive killed me. I thought the USD/CHF long would save me, but my premonition of a temporary shift in correlation between GBP/USD and USD/CHF hung my account out to dry.

Here's the chart that will hopefully unpluck my heart and my trading account.

You will notice that the MACD, RSI, and Stochastic bullish divergences are still strong and we are on our path to the beautiful formation of a double bottom. So I ask myself what is the best way to get back into this trade? And I ask myself... if this European Debt Crisis news gets further out of control, will we test the 1.35 level on GBP/USD? Because if Lehman caused a move to 1.35, then this European Debt Crisis excuse should normally cause a retest of that area - or even break below it. However, we most likely will not see 1.35 as the Greece bailout legislation process is now taking momentum.
Tomorrow's effing BOE and I got plucked out of my GBP/USD long with a flippin' fakeout that retraced a minimum of 300 pips to the upside on the market close. I helped the market with the plucking by hedging myself with a USD/CHF long, which tied up some more capital and caused the deterioriation of my bike to accelerate. I ask myself why I got hit at the market's lowest point. I ask myself why I didn't take action earlier when the market touched 1.55 or above a minimum of 5 times. When I look at it that way, I know I've got no one else to blame but myself.
I am highly disappointed in myself, frustrated that I couldn't even make it to BOE after weeks of being in this pipless marriage and I want revenge and I want it now. But it might be better for me to wait. Will BOE calm the GOL or will they keep running downhill to 1.35?

I don't know yet. All I know is that if I stop trading now, I'm done for good. If I develop some semblance of a calm, cool, and collected c'est comme ca type philosophy, it will work to my advantage. I walked into the year with a winning attitude and I'm not going to walk out a loser.
It's no secret that I favour crazy strategies, so with European currencies at such favourable levels, it's now a good time for US investors to make investments in undervalued, overlooked European financial stocks. And once this process takes hold, European currencies will have to strenghten against the USD again. It's also a good time for China to buy EUR if they are looking to diversify their USD holdings. Patriotism aside, look long and hard at US debt levels and tell me that's not scarier than a European sovereign debt default. When it comes down to it, the majority of the industrialised world is in debt, so who can you trust... Gold-diggin' Sinks?

For now...

Men of New York = still waters run deep
GOL = Fraidier Than Moi
Guys of London, we're better than this one forkin' trade! Shall we run their stops now? Oh, but you guys look so tempting at the 1.45 level...
I should like to touch that, but I will wait to see if you're naughty or nice...

Friday, May 7, 2010

WTF to the 500,553.111 Power

The hills are alive, but my bike of a forex trading account is now officially a pre-historic fossilised relic. It'll take ice ages before I get back on my high horse. -952.6 pips even though I was hedged. What? One can't have a small account?

Men of New York, quit playing games with my charts! Alas, the game has become Scrabble and I was still playing Monopoly.

A long time back, my colleague was telling us a joke about how some drunk guy walking around the Venetian Canal Shoppes was saying that the ceiling looked like the Sixteenth Chapel. It took me a while to get it since I'm so bimbo, but after I finally got it, it has me laughing every time I think about it. For a while, I thought I finally 'got' trading, but what I really got was played today. The move down on GBP/USD was a total fakeout in my diva opinion and my Franc couldn't even save me! I tried to buy back at 1.451 right before Non-Farm Pay Time, but I wasn't the one getting paid.
I hate myself for not taking action when I had mentioned a potential fakeout south of the 1.48 belt a few posts back. But I really feel bad for the guy who pressed the wrong button yesterday and caused the DJIA flop. People will be laughing at him for years to come. We're in the same boat, he and I! We're wrong-button-pressers.

When you don't follow price action, your account is subject to subtraction.

When you don't yield to price action, your account becomes a fraction.

When you don't respect price action, it's fatal attraction.

I'll save the Confessional Booth for later. I've got too much reckoning to do. So many mistakes, such a big TETSOB, so much unfulfilled trading plaisir. For now, I am going to clear my head and get ready for my Hermes Kelly Weekend.

I'm already strategising the perfect revenge on those who sold me at 1.54! But that's kind of like threatening to kill someone with my rose-coloured glasses. Anyway, I'm not the violent type. I would much rather utilise my other underutilised and tantalising talents in the kitchen, on the rooptop, in the elevator, in the Porsche, on the private jet, in the shower, etc.

Where else? On the trading floor!

Have a good weekend, Happy Shiny Forex Traders!

Thursday, May 6, 2010

Charm Me, Don't Harm Me!

The exit polls are predicting a Hung Parliament.

So, it appears I am in a very precarious position right now, but I'm really trying to keep a level head, although I must say I belong in the confessional booth for having a TETSOEU. Was the writing on the wall all this time? Most likely. I was only getting about 67 pips at most with my GBP/USD long and was expecting the GOL to brush their pips against mine a bit more. They never sort of did, which should have been a signal that this position isn't as hot as I had thought. But that 1.54 level appeared so erogenous to me. I'd been looking at the Weekly Chart and I told myself Weekly Chart In, Weekly Chart Out.

This is going to be a rather expensive learning experience and one would presume I would have learned from my previous trades. This is what we call Cooked In One Wok or even a Wok of Bubbles in Cantonese.

Tomorrow's Non-Farm Pay Day and if my account still exists then, I'm going to look for another trading opportunity. For the moment, I am hedged - long GBP/USD and long USD/CHF. If I had a bigger account, I would be in a better position being more heavily into USD/CHF. But if I add more USD/CHF and have both positions move against me somehow, I'll be killing myself even faster.

The other day, I was working on a Flash presentation at work and I couldn't get our logo to appear sharp. I tried 50,000 different ways and spent about three to four hours on it. Anyone else would have given up, but I decided to try one more method before finally giving up because I wouldn't have been able to live with myself if the presentation wasn't perfectly sharp even if no one else noticed. And that one last method worked!

It's the same with trading. We can be looking at a loss that is eroding our account size and our confidence, and our vision could be less than sharp, but if we surrender to the loss on the spot, we are done for good. If we step back and at least try to minimise the impact, we may be able to make it. And if we don't, at least we knew it wasn't without effort - however futile those efforts might have been.


-2.09% on the standard brokerage
-3.56% on the Roth IRA
At some point over -700 pips on the GBP/USD

Regardless of whether I still have an account tomorrow, I'll still be trading, although I have secret hopes of the GOL justifying my love like right here, right now, which is obviously a tell-tale sign of utter denial. But I have not spent so much time on learning technical analysis to be deleted from the face of the earth with just one trade. There has been unrelentless selling pressure for God knows how long without any meaningful retracement on GBP/USD and most of the arguments were based on political uncertainty. Usually I like the action to be horizontal, but vertical could be just as fun.

GOL, charm me... don't harm me! It's my Hermes Kelly Weekend and I don't want to go into Hermes with one less account although I'll still be financially dignified.

And don't forget Mother's Day is Sunday! (Is it even Mother's Day in the UK?!)

If anyone else is into denial, this article would be totally up your alley: Why the US Is Worse Off Than Greece.

I have to say that the issues affecting the EU are more political than monetary - as they often are, which means that we can almost expect with 90% certainty that this will be a long and drawn out affair. It's not going to be solved gracefully or cost-effectively. And that is what socialism is all about, isn't it? If you read any of the comments from UK citizens on popular UK media, everyone is fed up with high taxes and the burden that a wasteful and corrupt government is having on diligent people who actually add value to society.

If we allow the Democrats to run up spending in a similar way, we could be looking at an EU-size problem ourselves in a few years.

Do I digress? That was kind of a given... but a blown up account doesn't have to be.

At the Risk of Sounding Like A Milkaholic...

Did that just happen? LOL.

I mean the 950 point drop in DJIA? Or was it me?

I just hedged myself with a long USD/CHF trade, which will hopefully slow down the deterioration of my bike.

At the height of the EUR/USD glory days, my boss and I were discussing converting my full salary to EUR. However, I told myself, with my luck, I would have done it at the market top and therefore only converted half of it. Sometimes, self-doubt works to our advantage!

Oh, but I should have doubted myself more these past few weeks...

My heart goes out to everyone with a large account! I promise I do not have the cash to trade against you...

It's Not Easy Being Queen...

The captain has turned on the fasten seatbelt sign. We are experiencing some unexpected turbulence. Please, everyone, return to your seats...

My tiny forex trading account got plucked today and my Mile High Club Fantasy turned into Kitchen Nightmares as I experience this annoying drawdown. I am keeping my eyes on the levels, but where are the London Alpha Males? They are fraidier than me and now the Men of New York have us backed against a wall. Talk about being stuck between a rock and a hard place.

Will I be able to make it? And if I don't, I've recently started my own subsistence farm. No kidding. I've got a tiny garden where I'm growing some lettuce, potatoes, carrots, and arugula. I'll find a way to survive. Ah ah ah ah staying alive...

I am trying to fly below the radar for the time being though. After the UK Parliamentary Election, we have one less excuse to sell GBP/USD. Right now, though, we still have the whole trend on trend thing going on. Why did I fail to see this?

Trend 1: European Debt Crisis
Trend 2: Hung Parliament
Trend 3: Consecutive better than expected US data reports

Now my only option is to wait out the Hung Parliament Incident and pray that the Men of New York will tone down the alpha just a little. It's starting to hurt and this is not the MAT I'd envisioned happening. I'm going to have to look into a hedge if this GBP/USD long moves against me any more.

However, notice that once a few good reports start coming in better than expected, the market will start setting itself up for disappointment. It's like me with my trading. A few months of winning will get you overly optimistic and counting your chickens before they hatch.

I'm still looking for some buying opportunities in the equities market though. It's inconceivable to me that anything could be worse than this European Debt Crisis, but that's kind of what we said about Lehman. And this, of course, is shaping up to be the second (or third?) biggest buying opportunity of our lives.

Don't forget that this Friday is Non-Farm Pay Day!

Whatever happens, I am resolutely determined to trade myself out of this. I will view this as a learning opportunity and I shall not give up on myself, my financial future, and my Hermes Kelly, which I will collect this weekend! Initially, I thought it would be somewhat of a hollow victory. But I am not going to even let myself think that way. I've worked so many years for it and I am not just about my accounts and my mediocre trading. I am now a diversified, financially dignified woman, albeit with a shrinking bike of a forex account!

Diversified and financially dignified nonetheless!

Stay tuned for some more cliffhangers...

Wednesday, May 5, 2010

Big Red

My GBP/USD position was so red today, which together with the unpalatable decline in my portfolio, has left me questioning my trading identity. Was I Miss Equities 2010 / JBQ / ForexDiva solely due to a few months of quote unquote luck? Weeks of doing my own homework and touching the market's plaisir points - all gone because of my TETSOB.

-1.0% on the standard brokerage
-0.97% on the Roth IRA

From bwahaha to boohoohoo... even if you read the news, you can still get boo-ed.

However, I like to look at the long term. So, I'm sticking by my GBP Men and looking for buying opportunities in the stock market.

Yields on Municipals AA were up tremendously today at +12.5%. The moola seemed to have flowed into Corporates AA, where yields dropped from 6.1% to 5.55%.

I am actually glad that I realised that an account my size can't possibly compete on the same level as larger accounts. I had asked myself what if GBP/USD retraces significantly? Would I be able to weather this storm? The most recent lows were below 1.48 and if it does a fakeout before we find out how hung that parliament is, I'm not only dinosaur material, but will go down in history as the Woman Who Tried to Ride the GOL's Trend with An Account the Size of A Bike. And because of this doubt, I didn't average in to this trade just yet. In hindsight, it was a good move. The stove's hot!

Hopefully, this time next week, my sweet GOL will be singing me a very special song:

Don't cry for me, ForexDiva!
The truth is I never left you...
Through your persistence,
We'll go the distance.
My ForexDiva...

But now, it's very painful indeed.

Guys of London, we will survive!

Oh, in case anyone was wondering, my top secret FWF stock is not Good Times Restaurants (GTIM).

Tuesday, May 4, 2010

GOL, GOL, Wherefore Art Thou?

Oh, my sweet Guys of London... I hope you're not experiencing a hangover from your extended weekend at the pub. We will find out how hung your parliament is this week, won't we? Then, we won't have any excuses not to get some more plaisir out of this pipless marriage. This position shall finally be consummated and I'm kind of looking forward to it - my first time riding a trend! I hope it'll be a substantial one... with a lot of toe-curlin' Wake the Neighbours type profit potential.

I've decided to hang on a bit more to this GBP/USD position due to a combination of TETSOB and because I don't believe political uncertainty will have much of a long term influence on currencies. Moreover, BOE is on 10 May. After the Parliamentary Election results come in, we'll have at least one day to get out of this trade at a minimum of breaking even.

After the Awful Bigoted Woman Incident, the hung parliament excuse has faded to the background somewhat and the contagion fear excuse is now style of the week. The USD seems to have been the beneficiary, but interestingly, after looking at bond yields today vs. bond yields as of Wednesday, 28 April, yields on 30 year Municipals AAA and Municipals AA have since increased.

This means that prices are falling in these two bond categories whilst 30 year Municipals A yields have been relatively stable. If the AAA and AA categories are being sold, then the market can't be as fearful as the market indices would like us to believe. And the yield increase was substantial in terms of percentage gain. On the 30 year Municipals AAA, we have a difference of 8.13% and on the Municipals AA, we have a difference of 9.09%. Quite a remarkable jump if you ask me.

The past few days have been devastating for my portfolio though. Over the past week, I've seen a minimum of a 6% decline on my Roth IRA and about a 3% decline on my standard brokerage account. It was definitely painful.

I have been doing some more research and sold a partial position in BAC today. I am planning to either get into some more C, get into some more of my top secret FWF sector stock, or purchase BAC back on a retracement to $14 or $15.

It's been a long, hard journey, but we'll all make it one day! Even though the entire world seems to be on the collapse - what, with every "role model" somehow turning out to be one big disappointment in recent times from Tiger Woods (the best thing to have happened to product endorsements) to the Catholic Church to BP to Gold-diggin' Socks.

Let's turn on some bubble gum pop and dance like the Muppet Babies, fellow Happy Shiny BFF Forex Traders...