Tuesday, June 29, 2010
Today, my portfolio was more ridiculous than Michael Douglas' gold-diggin' ex-wife. So, I've gotta ask: is this market abuse the spin-off or the sequel?
-5.55% on the SBA
-5.36% on the Roth IRA
This is the worst trading day in the history of ForexDiva... oh wait, that was 16 August 2007, the day I shall remember for the rest of my trading life. Yes, the day I QU got liquidated and lost a good five figures in one shot. It's still very painful and I've been putting off something that I should have done long ago - that is, go back to that USD/JPY chart and figure out what the pluck I did wrong other than implementing some VBMM (Very Bad Money Management).
BCS is burning me and it was the biggest loser of the day for me. -7.01%... if that doesn't scare off everyone who's not serious about a long term monogamous one-on-one trendship with benefits with BCS, I don't know what will. This was a move that sold off on above-average volume and it leaves me wondering... is this a Lipstick on A Frog Moment? Don't dis it before you kiss it, right? Now that I've kissed it, I'm not sure if it's a frog yet and I'm not entirely sure the kiss was half bad. So, I think I'll wait to see if BCS will call again at the $18 level.
Speaking of which... don't ever do what I did and go from looking at a 15 minute chart to a Daily to a Weekly. That's like... a guy hasn't called in 15 minutes... which becomes a day... and then a week. LOL. Duh, the price isn't going to happen again!
Don't let the above-average volume scare you off either. Not every stock does that on the same trading day and one needs to also assess the bid / ask sizes. So far, I was pushed into almost selling C. I then decided... no... 16 July is just a few weeks away and we've been selling off since April. This is pent-up market saturation and sooner or later, we're going to have to relieve some of that pressure, won't we?
The only beam of light in my trading day was a QU lucky break with a long GBP/JPY position that happened at exactly the right time at exactly the right prices. It didn't have to be that way, though. Last night, I set three buy orders on my tiny, bike-sized forex trading account. All three orders were at relatively ridiculous prices.
I set a buy on GBP/JPY at 139.39 as well as a buy on GBP/USD at 1.45 and finally a top secret SD support level on EUR/CHF, which shall not be disclosed for fear of being arbitraged / mocked / ridiculed.
Anyway, I finally got some trading plaisir - getting filled at 139.39 and getting filled again at 133.873. During my Lunchtime Fun session, I was delighted to see that after several days of being unable to get a trade on, I was finally in one and it had already moved in my favour by about 40 pips. I nearly took profit straight away, but then decided to brush the pips a bit more and set my limit to 134.10. After some time, I decided... you know, I better check in with my forex broker and see how this trade is going because something doesn't feel right - which is when I got out of the trade at +54.39 pips.
Laugh all you want at my small pips, but if I didn't bank it and thank it, I would be spewing venom all across the forex world right now - and the equities market and the bond market for good measure.
According to me, a really big move has to happen in the forex market for this sell-off to be justified as a real one. There wasn't enough volume on the push down. So, I'm going to wait and see. The damage has been done anyway. How much worse could it get than over -5% on a single day?
Having said that, I'm going to keep my EUR/CHF buy at this ridiculously low level.
I'm not going to have any sort of currency bias this time since forex trading could be my only trading plaisir for some time to come if my portfolio continues to be naughty.
I discovered the existence of Cristiano Ronaldo yesterday and was all... if PCP doesn't work out, there'll be CR. What? I can't possibly ever pull off the whole photo with python thing anyway, which is what seems to be PCP's thing.
Am I still being indiscreet?
Monday, June 28, 2010
Today's session was nothing to moan about and I'm going to have to be a bit more discreet here. Who knows who's reading my blog? Not that I have much of a reputation to defend. Here I am thinking this is more my personal trading sanctuary where I can occasionally oooh and aah over the market excitement that is trading.
Anyway, I just don't get the price action on BCS vs. BARC. BARC moved up +1.48%... not that big of a deal, but GBP/USD also rallied following the G20 event. I hate the GOL forever! How can they move their treasure trunk like that and leave me out of the ride up? Bah humbug!
Anyway again... in theory, shouldn't BCS move up along with the push up on BARC and GBP/USD? Based on today's GBP/USD rate, and if I did the calculations correctly, BCS is only worth 258.59 pence whilst BARC closed at 285.35 pence. What's up with the discrepancy?
I did some more calculations and if BARC hits the 52WH of 394.25 pence and we get to a GBP/USD rate of 1.55, this would in theory place BCS at $25.43.... I would then be making 45.73% on this trade. If GBP/USD gets to 1.70, BCS gets priced at $23.19 and I would then be making 32.89% on this trade. So, I got my trading philosophy on backwards? I thought BCS would go up if GBP/USD goes up... I'm hoping BCS will hit the 52WH either way, which would put me at +47.16%. Yahoo!
OK, if I did something bimbo with the calculations, you're welcome to tell me off.
Like I said, there was nothing to sigh about today:
+0.30% on the SBA
+0.59% on the Roth IRA
I've been pondering the meaning of trading some more... Why are Moving Averages on eSignal limited to 3 figures? I'm dying to turn on the stove and try out some 4 figure Moving Averages! Crazy, I know... Just like me, I reckon!
Friday, June 25, 2010
I haven't seen anything worthy of mentioning on the luxury front for a while, but this Piaget Limelight Jazz Party Secret Watch caught my attention straight away - although it's been out for a while now.
If I was only meant to have one luxury watch ever, how can I ever decide? I wish I could change my mind every 15 minutes...
I think I'm the type who's always wanting to be different, but then I end up doing what most other people do, which is selecting the most classic, safe option. If money wasn't an issue, which it always is, this would be in my collection.
So this is why a high beta portfolio is so fun. Portfolio recovery is much more intense, although the emotional volatility clearly isn't for everyone. I was truly getting so tired of this game at one point. But finally, rays of sunshine have broken through and the Fair Weather may be just around the corner once again. Today's market action indicated that I'm not desperate! I'm not pathetic! And I'm going to get my portfolio recovery on - no matter how long it takes, although I prefer it to be quicker and much, much more vertical.
Unless you had stuff like FNVRF or RNWEF or PHHM in your portfolio, you most likely had a good trading day - or at least one that wasn't as bad as the previous few weeks.
With July earnings just around the bend, this final buying opportunity could turn out to be a Godsend. Final buying opportunity as in final before the next skinny dip. What else is there left to scare everyone and their Mama Bears out? Who knows? I'm the rose-coloured one. If this is the beginning of another bull run as I imagine it to be, then this rally's going to be totally up my alley.
Looks like MS had a good day too, after hitting $24.19 yesterday. So close! I had a feeling it'd get to $23-$24, but had more been hoping it'd get to $23. Then the lawsuit settlement kind of got in the way, didn't it? Let's see if I can wait for a retracement... Otherwise, I'm still into BCS even though it's clearly not showing my portfolio any love.
Oil rallied along with the financial sector. Commodities and retail are also looking solid. Things are lining up! Is this the market turn or am I still in danger of getting burned?
I don't much care! I'm going to avoid gloating, but I am very much pleased and relatively appeased:
+2.89% on the SBA
+1.64% on the Roth IRA
In case anyone's wondering how I can be happy with such a small percentage climb, it's because I've finally been enlightened once and for all. It's better to be banking small percentage gains every day consistently than trying to ride the biggest waves. We need to be participating in the market and taking advantage of the price action.
That's some financial reform for moi... I haven't sold anything yet, but I'm keeping my eye on the ball.
But oh, Professor GOL... they may be ready to stimulate my economy some more next week - or at least give me some unforgettable glasses-off trading!
I may not be the most beautiful woman in the world, but they shall treat me with respect and allow me to touch their smokin' pips on the 15 minute intervals. And I reckon I shall enjoy that very much...
Thursday, June 24, 2010
Much worse than my GBP/USD 15 minute chart, which has been my one and only for ages... If I hadn't decided to look at GBP/JPY yesterday, I would still be at a standstill.
-2.04% on the SBA
-2.70% on the Roth IRA
This time, it really, really hurts!
Chanel once said that if she ever gets to a point where she can't do anything more to a dress, she knows it has gotten to its worse possible state - or something to that effect. It always was a very inspiring statement to me because it reminds me to continue to evolve. But this is like my portfolio, isn't it?
I shall cheer myself up by listening to J'ai Fait Un Rêve by Axelle Red. If you don't know French, you can easily mistake it for a song about something else. But translate the lyrics and you'll see it's actually not. The French! They make everything so alluring, but then when you try to get closer...
Kind of like how my portfolio is not the Moola-making Machine I thought it would be. I had my portfolio targeting all planned out and now I'm still not on a solid path of economic recovery. I shall have to figure out new and innovative positions that'll stimulate my economy faster and to greater satisfaction.
If you don't hear from me further, HSFTs, it could be because I've died a very young financial death. Still, I have a bona fide Hermes Kelly... It does not make my trading any less pathetic! I am clearly dying to wrap my trading legs around the very compelling Professors of Finance, my GOL. And because I've been focusing so much on this one pair, my judgment has been clouded. Tomorrow, I'm going to force myself to look at Franc.
I need something big to happen to me! Something big and exciting!! Something bold!! Something...
... that could happen with the next round of earnings announcements, coming to a stock exchange near you in July 2010.
BAC 16 July 2010
C 16 July 2010
MS 23 July 2010
If your stove needs to get turned on, try Faire Des Mamours (Soul Version).
I shall continue to keep my fingers and trading legs crossed - temporarily at least.
Wednesday, June 23, 2010
I attempted to trade FOMC today with my MAT strategy, but it failed to please as the spicy retracements I was hoping for did not occur. Speaking of MATs, I was surprised / intrigued / amused that Yahoo had the audacity to run an online banner campaign with the phrase MAT as a headline. I am serious. Their ad on AdAge.com reads: A MAT you can tell the client about. Check it out if your trading day was as bad as mine. LOL.
Anyway, I'm definitely not on top of the market lately and I practically forgot about FOMC if I didn't receive Brian Dolan's pre-FOMC commentary. I was at one point so gung-ho about news events that I would have placed all top-tier news events in my Outlook if it wasn't so much work. The first forex broker to invent an Outlook news event application will definitely be too cool for words. I hope it'll be my BFF forex broker.
Let's see how the rest of the world reacts to Bernanke's commentary tomorrow. The GOLs are finally starting to get their act together. I'm going to have to look into getting some of their price action very soon.
-0.43% on the SBA
-0.74% on the Roth IRA
Keep your eyes on MS... it could get to $23 or $24 very soon and if it does, I might buy. I'm still a bit undecided since I haven't been paying attention to MS' client torture legal battle... Has that been settled yet? Granted, the impact on MS' QU brand value will not be as drastic as the Gold-diggin' Scandal. Still... though it makes sense from an analytic standpoint, I'm not sure I could get into some more MS at this time.
BCS, meanwhile, has got woes of its own with the UK regulatory backdrop, but the gold-diggin' part of me would rather be with BCS, the Sultan of Liquidity right now. They wouldn't have to resort to pawning anything in the short term in case anything major happens. Not that MS would either...
I'm clearly confused, so I'm going to do what I do best and hide behind a coral reef until I can get my thoughts and trading legs straightened out.
Tuesday, June 22, 2010
I am not even going to allow myself to hope anymore! I thought BCS would rally some more and HWD would go a bit further north, but ended the day:
-2.2% on the SBA
-1.66% on the Roth IRA
My only Knight In Shining Armour was a long GBP/JPY position during my Lunchtime Fun with the GOL Session.
I banked 57.25 pips with my bike-sized account (no need to applaud), but still feel a bit sleepy and weepy. Hopefully, this is just the beginning of a new winning trendship for me. I'll learn to be grateful with my Bank It & Thank It Everyday Strategy. I'm now going to aim for at least one winning trade every day of the week with my forex trading.
See... I'm testing out a top secret new Honeygreen Moola-Making Moving Average. Do your own homework and just think round-the-clock fun...
I've also crystallised my Market-Dominating Strategy:
1. Four figures cash
2. Assess buying opportunities and buy
3. At +8% to +10%, move stop and review other potential buying opportunities
4. Switch over to Stock B once I get stopped out, or if an opportunity arises due to either earnings announcement, encouraging options movements in Stock B, or both
5. Reinvest original investment and place profit in separate savings account
6. Once profits amount to original investment, invest new stash of cash as well as original four figures over and over and over
7. Always think undervalued + overlooked
8. If necessary, I am not above resorting to hedging my portfolio in case of a bearish turn with a timely forex trade.
Doesn't that sound divine? Looking at this with my rose-coloured glasses, I could be banking four figures in profit very soon if I time everything right. My greatest challenge is to keep moving the cash. My financial complacency is a VBH (very bad habit).
I'm going to sound like a scratched up CD by announcing that we're at the critical 10,000 Maniacs level again on DJIA and Nikkei. Gold and oil have not moved much and miners such as BHP, RTP, X, and AA have gone down south today.
Something interesting I found today:
S&P TSX Global Mining Index
Blah... blah... blah...
Monday, June 21, 2010
Just when I thought I would be the main beneficiary of today's market stimulation brought to you by China's RMB policy shift, which led to Shanghai rallying +2.9%, Nikkei banking +2.43%, and EuroFirst 300 migrating north by 1.04%, I got home to a major birthday surprise of:
-1.26% on the SBA
+0.11% on the Roth IRA
Strangely, EUR/USD and GBP/USD both declined - as did gold and oil. So the indices may show an optimistic picture, but the financial sector still seems to be off. My portfolio basically comprises mainly risk assets in the financial sector, so something's definitely in the air! But what? If there's fear, why?
DJIA closed above the 200 Day Moving Average the past several sessions and we're still well above the 365 Day Moving Average. Since 200 DMA is still above 365 DMA, this could still be considered a bullish indication and yet the financial sector is generally not rallying, but miners, including BHP, RTP, AA, and X all joined in the Honey Bunny Sunny Money Rally.
Just in case anyone was wondering why I'm such a Royal Pain, I share the same birthday as Prince William. Same day, different year. Definitely a different portfolio too, I reckon.
One of my birthday wishes, besides Prince Carl Philip (what? one can hope... and why don't they make men like this in Belgium), is to finally get rid of my Always Right, Never Making Money disposition. I've had a few years of ATNA now and this time, I'm really going to make it! If I'm going to be six figures this year, I've got to make a run for it.
Today, I had some new trading insight. Our trading capital is like our inventory. We must therefore keep our trading capital turning. So, my new and improved strategy in the most primal sense is:
1. Always keep part of my capital moving. The faster it moves in my direction, the better.
2. Never get locked in with one investment for too long. I have a tendency to stay in a trade for far too long. The longer the capital gets locked up, the more painful it becomes. Remember, the longer you wait, the longer you're bait. So, I'm going to have to bank, bank, bank - especially with my forex trading.
3. If I take a loss, I have to bounce back more quickly and more effiently. I can't sit here and cry about how I lost a few hundred pips and then close my trading legs for a month. I've got to take a leap of faith and just do it - maybe with a new position.
4. Finally, I really have to implement a bull + bear portfolio. If I time it right, I can S&R with one of them at a pivotal market turn and then make a ton of moola. I shall have to find out more about straddling though. I haven't tried that before... not that I know of anyway. So far, it seems the way I can implement this successfully is to use my equities to target a bull market and then use forex to capitalise on a bear market.
It's going to get hot in here again!
Yes, smokin' hot!
Friday, June 18, 2010
It was an otherwise unremarkable day for my portfolio. Except for Harry Winston, who moved -1.7% back, not much definitive happened.
-0.18% on the SBA
+0.57% on the Roth IRA
BCS had a bit of a move up. I am now +11.41% on a part of the position and +5.82% on the full position. Is this a move that would warrant two gold-diggin' stars? I apparently did something right by selling MS for BCS.
C is moving back up as well - most likely due to Jim Cramer's recommendation / product endorsement.
My colleague had some intriguing insight today, stating that "we're aiming for perfection, but our tools are still largely primitive." That actually is quite true as far as my trading is concerned. But it got me thinking... so long as we get the basics right, all will fall into place.
The chemistry of the trade has got to be there from the start, or the big organic growth that's promised by the risk:reward factor may never fully materialise.
Just a few more months until my PDO is done, so I'll be strategising on how I can make use of the capital injections I'll be receiving every month. I think I shall be more frugal this time around, but it's quite evident I am prone to changing my mind every few days now isn't it? Whatever happened to the bull + bear portfolio I was contemplating the other day that was supposed to stimulate my economy?
At one point, I also thought it would be a good idea to set aside some cash and only trade one stock - all in, all out. My goal now is to move faster and faster with the banking. First, we need to get the accuracy up and then we've got to get the efficiency going and the cash flowing.
I should really like to do that with my trading. Wouldn't you?
Happy weekend, HSFTs!
Thursday, June 17, 2010
Cheap and possibly Not-So-Chic Raffia Handbag... 12.95 EUR
Bulgari Twistino Handbag in Nappa Leather
Hermes Kelly Sellier 28 cm in Box Calf Leather (not quite five figures)
Prada (the one I've been throwing around)
Chanel (purchased in beautiful London)
Dior (absolutely adorable... purchased at Neiman Marcus)
So I've been getting more hate mail than John Mayer lately, leaving me wondering if I did something to offend some Chinese guy dollar bull's bearhood with my bimbo political incorrectness. That's the thing about Chinese guys though. They're so cowardly sometimes that they have to be all anonymous. If I've offended some Chinese guys, I apologise, although I'm still entitled to my point of view - just as whoever's posting anonymous hate mail is entitled to theirs... just not on my blog. As everyone should know by now, my TETSOB likes to be worshipped and my pips like to be brushed - just ever so slightly, every once in a while.
For those who hate me + my blog, you have a choice to switch it off. Turn off the RSS feed and stop visiting my blog. You know your life will be a trillion times duller without it. LOL.
I've been busy running around lately, so haven't been paying attention to luxury news that much. I can't believe I missed the launch of the Barbie by Stefano Canturi. This is now news that's practically older than me, but the necklace is to-die-for! Absolutely enchanting / innovative / gorgeous / compelling.
I should like a pink diamond... Stefano, why don't you cover me with diamonds?
Oh, but I shall buy my own as well! My secret mission is to become so rich I'll be the one asking for a prenup. Hush... it shall remain our secret, Harry Winston!
My portfolio does not agree so far in the day...
-1.74% on the SBA
-0.59% on the Roth IRA
I missed a perfectly sound JPY cross trade today by 51 pips... False modesty is difficult to maintain. I'm going to have to just get in at market prices if this continues. I'm dying for the GOL to fill my order already.
Wednesday, June 16, 2010
I was totally expecting the GOL to say: "you diva, me Sultan" today. But instead, there was a bit of a tepid reception. Not that I got into any trade. I decided to keep my trading legs crossed at the right moment by setting a buy order for two potential falling knives - one on GBP/USD at 1.435 and one on a JPY cross, which shall remain anonymous.
During my Lunchtime Fun session, I was in serious contemplation about what I should do next. I checked all of the major indices. Nikkei... FTSE... US equities futures... all lukewarm at best. Gold and oil weren't looking too promising either. So, at that point, I decided, if I'm going to continue with the false modesty strategy, this is the best moment to do it. If I catch GBP/USD at 1.435, my risk is relatively contained. I set prices at varying corresponding levels so that I'll have all the fun if they both start moving in my direction whilst at the same time minimising risk if I should end up catching both if the market was destined for a reversal.
I'm still waiting here for my Forex Kings, the Royal GOL, to drive back this way and sweep me off my newly pedicured feet.
My portfolio was all Chilly Willy today instead of Oh, your preeminence:
+0.46% on the SBA
-0.68% on the Roth IRA
The big question is if this is the mummy/Mommy/Mother Dear of all fakeouts. Is the economy finally going to head up? Who else has got debt problems left to scare everyone out? We had colossal failure moments in the US, Dubai, and Europe.
Now, every once in a while, some rumblings regarding Japan would pop up in the financial press.
Are we going to get that one final excuse before we hit those pre-crisis levels? Or am I jumping to conclusions here? We can hardly stay above 52WHs for long...
Win some, bank some, I say!
The key to success is passing the test...
The key to success is wearing the right dress...
The key to success is not becoming distressed...
Tuesday, June 15, 2010
It's my blog and I'll sigh if I want to... especially since it's a very organic moment for my portfolio...
Finally! After weeks of unrelentless selling, it appears the optimism is starting to rise to the occasion again. Who else rose to the occasion but the GOL, breaking above 1.48?
But you've actually got to be in the car to be anywhere near their treasure trunk and I was just too far away - always trying to buy at 1.43 instead of recognising that this is now about squeezing the BHTEL dollar bulls above all else. Tomorrow, I am going to try another strategy... to think, if I hadn't banked those 60 pips right then and there. Why don't I ever learn to move my stops? God forbid I get anywhere near a really irresistible man with dark-rimmed glasses. Actually, I have and I was able to... never mind... It's very possible he did not find me irresistible enough to... never mind...
Still, my portfolio is appearing very irresistible:
+2.29% on the SBA
+2.99% on the Roth IRA
BCS is finally starting to hit the erogenous levels again and that position gave me +5.19% of trading plaisir on today's rally alone.
Harry is another noteworthy mention, recently breaking above the $1 billion market cap. I had been waiting for that forever. Keep it up, Harry!
Quality is inevitably good, but quality + quantity is even better where equities are concerned. With forex, I think my major issue was not realising that banking is the only real source of trading plaisir. Even though everyone wants to catch the 1000+ pip moves, the forex market moves so fast that riding moves both ways could be even more fun than just staying in that one hot spot. Isn't it true? All I say here is true to the best of my knowledge even though some people obviously want me to STFU (like that Chinese guy who commented on the below post, which is why I don't do suffocating, strict, prohibitive Chinese guys to begin with even though I might have been equally suffocating, strict, prohibitive in that moment). This is my blog, the only place I can be politically incorrect, so don't tell me to STFU unless you have something better to add to the conversation.
Anyway, I'll tantalise everyone with some relatively venom-free inspiration:
"Test fast, fail fast, adjust fast." - Tom Peters
This is never more true than with trading...
Sunday, June 13, 2010
And should I feel just as bad as John Mayer for wanting to take advantage of a market glitch that would have made my financial dreams happen with just one click? Is it just as bad as finding six figures of cash in your account and not reporting it? The thing is... price happens and if I had found six figures of cash that didn't belong to me in my account, I would have reported it just like I returned that diamond earring I found last year at LHR. But when price happens and we don't take advantage of it, I think it's our mistake - not the market's mistake. In a transparent market, everyone receives the same price so in a way, we're always going through Finder's Keepers Moments in our trading.
Anyway, my confessional booth theme this week is how I missed out on major profit opportunities by being too fraidy.
I used to think that trading was all about QU luck. But the more I trade, the more I realise it isn't. If you don't have sufficient capital, then it could become a moment of QU bad luck when you get QU liquidated. So I've been asking myself if I should just concentrate on the part of my trading that is consistently giving me trading plaisir. You'll notice that I actually do quite well with selecting equities that move in my direction relatively soon. After my Mine Your Own Business post on Wednesday night, the miners I mentioned all rallied significantly in just two days. I really should have taken my own advice there.
BHP about +10%
RTP about +5%
MT about +7%
X about +7%
AA about +5%
Of course, I've had moments such as ABK as well. I've bought those tops, but I've bought bottoms as well. In my ABK-like instances, I rarely lose that much in comparison with what I've lost before with my forex trading. I keep talking about chastity, but little did I realise that I actually lost my trading chastity years ago. It takes that one moment and it's gone, really. LOL.
So, I'm thinking I should just focus on equities rather than spending time and money on investments that don't seem to pay off. I've said this so many times and now in my third losing streak year, I hope I can finally have the discipline to either say: OK, I'm only willing to lose this much more on forex trading and I'm really going to do the best I can with this capital or just get the fork out of that kitchen until I can make it work.
John Mayer... a guy who wrote an uplifting song like Heart of Life but then turns around and says some pretty contradictory and provocative stuff.
ForexDiva... a woman who tells everyone we're all going to make it someday but then turns around and does some pretty contradictory and provocative trading.
Friday, June 11, 2010
Things are getting exciting here at ForexDiva. I got home late today and opened my portfolio after the stock market closed.
I noticed I became six figures overnight due to my JBQ holdings. Cynical as I am, I thought it could very well be some wrong-button-pressin' computer glitch incident - and it most likely is. I put in orders to sell some of the bonds and got quoted with regular pricing, so declined to sell.
But how sweet it would be if this were my reality - six figures overnight. It's not real until we consummate the trade. And if there's a computer glitch to be taken advantage of, we get our Bwahaha HTELs out, throw caution to the wind, and attempt to sell! That is definitely not pure of heart, but if the order goes through, why shouldn't we take the six figures, right?
Back to reality... Right now, I'm still five figures, but I see the bankruptcy proceedings with the Lehman case painting a seemingly rosier picture. First, Lehman's suing JPM. Secondly, Lehman's auctioning its art collection. Finally, Lehman is planning to purchase some debt in valuable Park Avenue real estate that could have potential "significant upside." You've got my vote, Lehman!
This week, I was all I will sit out on the bench so I won't look like a wench with the GOL. This must be my worst line yet. LOL. I missed out on major pips! This leads me to believe that after getting really burned by the market, we will be inclined to being overly cautious, which in turn negatively affects our performance. Same thing happens when a rally starts making you feel that the forex market is our oyster and the TETSOB starts rearing its head and shoulders.
+2.54% on the SBA
+2.51% on the Roth IRA
+0.21% on the SBA
-0.01% on the Roth IRA
Have a great weekend, BFF HSFTs!
Let's do some risk-takin', money-makin', chart-breakin' next week!
Wednesday, June 9, 2010
Yesterday, I had a minor portfolio increase:
+0.75% on the SBA
+0.95% on the Roth IRA
Bernanke reached out and touched my portfolio in a substantial way today.
+2.78% on the SBA
+1.07% on the Roth IRA
I don't know if this is going to be a quarter step forward, three steps back. According to me, Bernanke was a crowd pleaser.
On the forex front, I was still not able to get into position with the GOL. I'm wondering if I should quit the false discipline and just make a jump for it already. I'm definitely not doing any pips any justice by playing hard to get at the 1.438 area. At this point, is it better if I say, I don't mind being in second place as long as I'm in the race? That's what gets us into mistress territory. We are good old-fashioned Catholic women and we'll keep our modesty, thank you very much. I should have said that about a month ago before the whole HP Incident.
Oooh, ouch! Speaking of mistresses... Whatever happened to ABK, the very axis of evil? ABK was -39.62% today. Bandaids, please... Bankruptcy fears? Are you kidding me? Good thing I got out of both ABK bonds and shares back in the day.
For the more alpha types, I'd say to Mine Your Own Business and look into some miners, including BHP, RTP, MT, X, and AA. What a good time to do a pickup line on these very appealing and oversold financial angels that always have the bargaining power to their advantage? Do your own homework though.
I'm still waiting for BCS to turn around once GBP/USD starts skyrocketing. If only I had been more Catholic with BCS.
Get your glasses out... tomorrow's BOE & ECB!
And mine may already be off...
Monday, June 7, 2010
Another very red day... My portfolio can't handle this any longer and neither can I. I came thisclose to selling HWD (mainly for capital preservation purposes), but one second earlier, I had just bought some more BCS.
BCS is very undervalued according to moi, the JBQ who missed a major profit by $0.04 on the Finlay junk bonds - sigh, oh, sigh! There is still a slight possibility that a lot of other bondholders would see some sense and vote to reject that reorganisation plan.
So what's my rose-coloured take on BCS and does anyone even care? First, it seems many analysts think the fair value of GBP/USD is at around $1.60 or $1.70. This means in dollar terms, BCS will appreciate on the discrepancy in the exchange rate alone. Secondly, my inner cynic believes that somewhere in this world, there are some liberal elite traders out there making tons of moola off of this QU European Debt Crisis. And I believe this liberal elite trader group not only includes the savvy HSFT out there, but also BCS. They were the ones who acquired Lehman, who was specialised in fixed income / bond trading - more or less. Finally, even without these two preceding points, BCS is trading at a Price/Book ratio of only 0.68 and a Price/Sales ratio of 1.60, which is lower than low in the financial sector.
So with over 1 trillion in cash and a market cap of only 45.82 billion, why isn't BCS undervalued and overlooked? It is according to my standards, but it seems my standards aren't that high.
If things get even more absurd and the sell-off continues to get even more dramatic, we may see BCS get to around $12. I'm looking at a third entry at that point.
For now, I'm sighing that I allowed my portfolio to get to this incredible level of:
-0.94% on the SBA
-1.82% on the Roth IRA
I obviously did not learn this second time around. It feels like Lehman all over again - only this isn't close to a garage sale just yet. Half of me still thinks it's a fakeout, but the other half is starting to get fraidier and fraidier.
From a risk:reward perspective, C of course still looks as tantalising as ever. However, beware of buying too much now, I'd say. Think about when everyone finally has to get out of C... It could get as scary as when the carry trades were unwinding.
Someone should do some more investigative journalism and figure out what Bernanke, Merkel, Trichet, etc. are all buying. EUR/USD perhaps? Or are they waiting for it to get to $0.85 again?
Friday, June 4, 2010
I had a bit of trading discipline this week and did not try to ride the GOL at just any level. I kept trying to get in at around the 1.42 or 1.43 level. I almost succumbed to buying at the 1.45 level, but when it kept touching north of 1.47, I did not even blink. Of course, GBP/USD was starting to appear very seductive and there was no doubt I wanted to wrap my trading legs around the GOL. Judging by today's action, I didn't miss out on too much.
The Euro Heroes couldn't handle the pressure and surrendered to the Men of New York, breaking below 1.20. I was going to bet my subsistence farm that it wouldn't do that, but had some sense in not doing so.
-4.72% on the SBA
-3.33% on the Roth IRA
Couldn't buy EUR/JPY or GBP/USD for a week
The most noteworthy decline in my portfolio today: HWD with -6.16%.
My trading is like a four-year cold that won't go away. I think it's time for Nurse ForexDiva to get some market healing, which will invariably require a capital injection. I've crystallised my next steps now.
I've decided once and for all that no matter the direction the market takes, I'm going to find a way to make moola. I've been an Awful Bigoted Woman for too long now. I'm taking my rose-coloured glasses off and the rest is going to be history.
It'll take me some time to get the asset allocation part right, but one account is going to be honouring the bulls and one account is going to be toasting the bears. I'm doing the whole market! My ultimate goal is to buy a slight break below 52WL and sell a slight break above 52WH. It sounds so simple, but in practice, it's rarely that easy. There are still so many stocks trading at Price/Sales and Price/Book ratios of below 1. It may sound repetitive, but that strategy has worked like a charm for me this year, especially on the stocks with more cash than liabilities. The part I really got wrong, and the most critical part, was the profit taking. When a stock breaks above the 52 WH, my rose-coloured glasses get even rosier, clouding my thinking some more. Fakeouts happen both ways.
If I manage to get my simple new strategy right on the majority of my trades there'll be champagne for all.
First, I need to start treating myself as an asset rather than a liability. I think everyone grows up thinking they are either an asset or a liability. Once we brand ourselves as one or the other, it's very difficult to reposition ourselves as the alternative. It takes time, effort, and a very big budget.
Wednesday, June 2, 2010
Apparently, Harry does! HWD finally broke above the $1 billion market cap level yesterday. It didn't close with a $1 billion market cap yesterday, but managed to today... Let's see if Harry continues to be alpha. About this time last year, Harry was very, very alpha and a lot more hypnotic than usual.
I'm still a bit disappointed in myself. Why did I think that those 60 something pips on GBP/USD the other day were screaming "bank me"? To make matters worse, I kept thinking I shall not take the bait and make them wait all the way up to 1.475 today...
I'm keeping an eye out on the Euro Heroes instead. Everyone is waiting for the EUR/USD to break below 1.20, I presume. Is it really a given?
What's up with all the politicians quitting recently anyway? Perhaps I should think long and hard about whether I should be spending so much time trading too.
Finlay bondholders are expecting an approximate payout of $0.048 on the dollar on a proposed reorganisation plan. As usual, I am voting against this plan - not least because I ended up paying on average $0.08 on the dollar for my bonds. This was a bad move on my part. Don't look at it as a few cents off here. A few cents off on junk bonds is like a few cents off in forex trading. Minor difference, major impact.
So, essentially, penny stocks, junk bonds, and forex are all similar in principle in terms of the money management formula.
I think there's more money to be recovered with Finlay and pray that all other bondholders will exercise their voting rights to vote against settling for much less than these bonds are actually worth. We should aim for an above average recovery here. Gold prices have skyrocketed since Finlay first manufactured/purchased their jewellery. At today's prices, that inventory is worth much more than it was originally valued at.
-0.82% on the SBA
-1.41% on the Roth IRA
+1.81% on the SBA
+0.85% on the Roth IRA
The performance of my SBA is decidedly much better than my Roth IRA over this recent market meltdown. On the way up, the Roth IRA was doing much better. C is a major part of my Roth IRA, although it's also in my SBA. But I've got a lot of stuff in my Roth IRA that just doesn't move - such as BULIF.
The major difference seems to be HWD. Oh, Harry, my Market Hero / Financial Angel / Alpha Sultan of Gemstones. He isn't quite saying "bank me" just yet, but I think his glasses appear to be dark rimmed.