Thursday, May 6, 2010

Charm Me, Don't Harm Me!

The exit polls are predicting a Hung Parliament.

So, it appears I am in a very precarious position right now, but I'm really trying to keep a level head, although I must say I belong in the confessional booth for having a TETSOEU. Was the writing on the wall all this time? Most likely. I was only getting about 67 pips at most with my GBP/USD long and was expecting the GOL to brush their pips against mine a bit more. They never sort of did, which should have been a signal that this position isn't as hot as I had thought. But that 1.54 level appeared so erogenous to me. I'd been looking at the Weekly Chart and I told myself Weekly Chart In, Weekly Chart Out.

This is going to be a rather expensive learning experience and one would presume I would have learned from my previous trades. This is what we call Cooked In One Wok or even a Wok of Bubbles in Cantonese.

Tomorrow's Non-Farm Pay Day and if my account still exists then, I'm going to look for another trading opportunity. For the moment, I am hedged - long GBP/USD and long USD/CHF. If I had a bigger account, I would be in a better position being more heavily into USD/CHF. But if I add more USD/CHF and have both positions move against me somehow, I'll be killing myself even faster.

The other day, I was working on a Flash presentation at work and I couldn't get our logo to appear sharp. I tried 50,000 different ways and spent about three to four hours on it. Anyone else would have given up, but I decided to try one more method before finally giving up because I wouldn't have been able to live with myself if the presentation wasn't perfectly sharp even if no one else noticed. And that one last method worked!

It's the same with trading. We can be looking at a loss that is eroding our account size and our confidence, and our vision could be less than sharp, but if we surrender to the loss on the spot, we are done for good. If we step back and at least try to minimise the impact, we may be able to make it. And if we don't, at least we knew it wasn't without effort - however futile those efforts might have been.

Today:

-2.09% on the standard brokerage
-3.56% on the Roth IRA
At some point over -700 pips on the GBP/USD


Regardless of whether I still have an account tomorrow, I'll still be trading, although I have secret hopes of the GOL justifying my love like right here, right now, which is obviously a tell-tale sign of utter denial. But I have not spent so much time on learning technical analysis to be deleted from the face of the earth with just one trade. There has been unrelentless selling pressure for God knows how long without any meaningful retracement on GBP/USD and most of the arguments were based on political uncertainty. Usually I like the action to be horizontal, but vertical could be just as fun.

GOL, charm me... don't harm me! It's my Hermes Kelly Weekend and I don't want to go into Hermes with one less account although I'll still be financially dignified.

And don't forget Mother's Day is Sunday! (Is it even Mother's Day in the UK?!)

If anyone else is into denial, this article would be totally up your alley: Why the US Is Worse Off Than Greece.

I have to say that the issues affecting the EU are more political than monetary - as they often are, which means that we can almost expect with 90% certainty that this will be a long and drawn out affair. It's not going to be solved gracefully or cost-effectively. And that is what socialism is all about, isn't it? If you read any of the comments from UK citizens on popular UK media, everyone is fed up with high taxes and the burden that a wasteful and corrupt government is having on diligent people who actually add value to society.

If we allow the Democrats to run up spending in a similar way, we could be looking at an EU-size problem ourselves in a few years.

Do I digress? That was kind of a given... but a blown up account doesn't have to be.



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