Wednesday, May 19, 2010

10,000 Maniacs... From Yes to Mess...


Last night, Germany told us: "We have nothing to fear but bears itself," resulting in a very precarious see-saw type sell-off in EUR/USD. GBP/USD did not hold onto the resultant losses and after US inflation data disappointed, we're seeing the 10,000 Maniacs again in DJIA. Nikkei, not surprisingly, is now also nearing that level.

Is the tide shifting again? Remember the previous time we saw a retracement back to the 10,000 Maniacs, a lot of people and their WTYMs got faked out. So we'll have to wait and see if this level holds. S & P 500 is near the 1000 psychological level, which Eurofirst 300 already broke. This article totally piqued my interest today, not least because it reminded me of my trading several weeks back when I committed semi-financial suicide with my long GBP/USD trade. I was just like King Canute in this story and I, Queen of Pips, got soaked. Now, I'm already daydreaming of riding Professor GOL's trend with an even smaller bike even if the recent turn in events had me singing "I can't pip... if pippin' is without you."

Still, it's got me thinking about why I always get affected by retracements and it hit me like the tide. I am a collector by nature and I've been asking myself... has this inclination hurt my portfolio in any way? And the answer, of course, is a straight, resounding, loud as a belle yes!

I went from yes to mess because my instinct is always to buy. So in order to avoid this in the future, I'd have to make a conscientious effort to rebalance my portfolio every once in a while. I should like a SPF who's a perma-bear to counter my eternally bullish rose-coloured-glasses trading style.

Trading fantasies aside, the most absurd thing about this sell-off is that people went from selling off European assets to purchasing US Treasuries for low cut, barely there single digit yields. That's like selling APKS stuff for hundreds of pounds - low production cost, high profit margins. LOL. That, my friends, is the power of a brand. And unfortunately, it's very possible that Europe has lost its lustre - at least for the time being.

Oh, no! Don't tell me I'm going to miss out on my chance to ride my Professor GOL's trend on trend...

I must get back to my charts!

Today:

-0.82% on SBA
+0.42% on Roth IRA




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