Wednesday, October 26, 2011

Lucky Duck


Not to get all religious on you, but right now, I really feel truly blessed. Today was my second consecutive quick-pip double-digit percentage profit-taking day and it was somewhat unnerving, but I got out of it with a tonne of financial dignity. Observing market action and key price levels over the past few weeks is finally beginning to pay off once again. And a tiny voice now urges me to think outside the box because oftentimes, just when you think you know the market, the market does a spin-spin-spin on you and you have to know when to duck.

My evil premonition from yesterday's post that MF could hit $1.1289 today really occurred and in a split-second tailor-swift kind of move, I bought more MF @ $1.20 even though my paper losses were thicker than my glasses. It was definitely a risk, but in this case, it paid off. We ended up retracing the incomprehensible -40-something % downturn MF took earlier in the day to close at -8.60%. For a stock with a 1.0 beta, this is deeply uncharacteristic, sparking a possibly unprecedented dust storm with 136 million shares of MF exchanged today - about 28x the 3-month average.

Fib levels... they really work!

-0.28% SBA (took +46.66% profit on partial MF)
+1.50% Roth IRA (not sure exactly how this happened?)

+1.39% DJIA
+0.46% Nasdaq
+1.05% S&P

-7.32% VIX

Notice how Nasdaq did not outpace DJIA and S&P... Most of the buying occurred with DJIA stocks - typically bluechips. This is usually a sign of caution and not straight up bullishness.

+0.50% FTSE (GOLs aren't speeding ahead either)
+0.12% Eurofirst

I'm looking to a pop of VIX to buy some stocks - possibly in the Nasdaq. My fear is that since I have cashed out recently, I am erring to the side of being too fraidy. Following a European Debt Resolution, it's likely that we'll see a more directional break on VIX - probably to the downside, which means that the stock indices will head up. So if that happens, am I positioned for maximum trading plaisir?



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