Tuesday, July 27, 2010

It's Not Nutty To Be Slutty...


Well, only when you're trading.

It was a beautiful day in my neighbourhood today and Sultan BCS had a summer party in my portfolio with a +6.87% straight up move supported by volume that's 2.29 times the 10-day average. In the middle of the session, when BCS retraced to slightly below $21, I got jittery and thought... should I sell? But then, in a moment of clarity, I checked LON:BARC and noticed that BARC had an even more stunning overture of +7.57%. BCS had only gotten to a bit above 5% then, and I decided then and there to ride it a bit more. I got paid!

My big question mark, as usual, is... now that I'm already +20.71% into the position, should I do more? A glance at the charts shows $24 as the Fraidy Cat Level where everyone started selling BCS around the Hung Parliament Incident. Around 29 April 2010, BARC was at 364.45 pence. With the GOL making GBP/USD so alpha, would I be nutty not to be so slutty? After all, it makes sense that all who were short at $24 would place their stops above $24 - unless they've already cut their losses (taken profit, rather). It's hard to tell. With volume so high and the BCS earnings announcement out on 5 August, BCS was decidedly bid up until the final trading minutes of the day. So, I'm thinking there's still more upside to this bull ride.

I see zero puts on BCS for August and calls are well supported with lots of open interest.

Whilst C could hardly be classified as an up-and-comer today, bid size on C was very, very tantalising. I'll put myself out there and spread some conjecture that it might get to $5. $4 looks well supported in terms of options analysis. We saw a lot of call volume at $4 and there are very little puts at $5. It all depends on the market's mood, unfortunately. At this point in time, $5 looks promising. DJIA is getting closer and closer to 10,700 and S&P closed above 1100 yet again.

No change on the SBA
+2.37% on the Roth IRA

In case anyone wasn't noticing, my Roth IRA is in the Honeygreen once again with a very firm profit. There's still a lot to be recovered on my SBA.

I'm keeping my options open on the forex front and ready to move if anything even slightly bearish starts occurring.

I'm still watching Shanghai very closely. I'll probably have to pay attention to HK Hang Seng as well.

Faster, please, GOLs...


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