... did CENX price climax without me? We are now trading firmly above the 50% retracement level between the 52WH and 52WL at about $13.46, but CENX seems to be running out of breath before $14. I'm still doing my crazy price strategy in Extended Hours Trading, so if you see any unusual pricing there, it might be me.
I did my own homework this weekend and have identified five different stocks that I could invest in. Three of them start with the letter B, so you can go do your own homework and fantasise about what they might be. They're all in the banking sector. I'm already heavily into financial stocks, so I don't mind getting a little arbitraged this time around - especially if you're going to buy up CitiFrog or Sultan BCS. This year, banks got battered and it's about time we see a good rally. Today's session saw a broad-based rally involving many stocks in the financial sector - and this may just be the beginning of the end for the bears.
Am I not always saying that? Well, I suppose so. But this time, it could just be different. S&P 500 is getting very close to the 1200 level. Recall that 1214 roundabouts was where S&P 500 closed the day immediately after Lehman. We were slightly above 1600 pre-Lehman and now, we’re almost at 1200, which was tested earlier in the year pre-Hung Parliament. So are we going to break above this level and rip off the bandaid already?
Psychologically, people don’t want to see this level yet because that’s like opening up an old wound again – especially for the people who sold the market bottoms. LOL. What? I bought the market tops so I can make fun of the bottom sellers! Seriously, though… I wonder if the bottom sellers got out of position yet?
So what's different this time around?
1. Lehman caused a break below 1200
2. If I'm not mistaken, it took us about 18 months after Lehman for a try above 1200 again. That failed due to European Debt Crisis fears.
3. Now, we've got Bernanke wanting to lift us out of the abyss with some more quantitative easing.
I think the case for a higher S&P 500 definitely has a lot more potential than the bearish story. Quantitative easing + healthier balance sheets of banks + healthier balance sheets of many large corporations… that makes for a compelling push higher.
Whilst housing and unemployment would ideally improve further to be supportive of a move higher, business confidence is already back. I believe that the recovery will continue to be led by companies that are able to take a proactive and innovative approach to business rather than consumers charging up their credit cards to buy more clutter this time around. Once business starts taking off again, consumers will follow. Both will hopefully be a lot more cautious, which isn't necessarily a bad thing.
People have been unemployed for a while and if they’ve managed to get on by for so long, then they’ll survive.
The question is how fast can the market move up without appearing insensitive? All the people on the news will be commenting on the financial hypocrisy if 1200 manages to hold. Maybe we need to move in a range for a while?
So, I’ll pay attention to what goes on now and if we hit the 1000 level again and my five stocks are at attractive levels then, I’ll buy some. Already, I’m seeing some interesting stocks trading near their 52WLs – near as in it could be conceivable that any move lower on key market indices could drive the stock of that stock lower and hit my “target buy levels.”
My trading legs don't part at every level, nor do they part for just any stock. Or, that's what I would like to think.
Anyway, that was a very big rant... And now, the part you've all been waiting for!
Report Card Time!
I jumped on the treasure trunk today...
+0.91% on the SBA
+3.05% on the Roth IRA
Let's see if I can have some forex now, but if I don't, there's always tomorrow!
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