Tuesday, October 26, 2010

So This Is Why I Didn't Get Into Columbia...

Why didn't anyone tell me I was misusing the word relentless? I keep saying unrelentless... It's my very own George W. Bush style semi-Republican blunder. Anyway, now I know why I didn't get into Columbia! But did somebody downgrade LEHMQ or something? LOL. It's hitting levels very close to its 52WL now, so since I'm still in that position from March 2010, when I missed out on a very big gain because I got greedy, I'm going to quote unquote average in with a tiny amount of cash in hope of some bigger gains. Let's see how that one works out. I want to be positioned in such a way that I'll be in for some upside when Lehman finally gets out of bankruptcy.

BAC moved up +1.25% today - nothing major... but here's my blah on it.

It doesn't take GWB to see that we closed the day at very critical levels today:



NASDAQ... 2497.29 (obviously very close to 2500)
DJIA... 11169.46 (obviously above 11,100 and holding)
S&P 500... 1185.64 (obviously close to 1200 - the infamous Lehman Level)



So are we going to rip off the bandaid? Or did I buy another top?

Interestingly, I noticed there had been some positive correlation between S&P 500 and BAC on the one year timeframe. However, lately, there has been a disconnect - particularly since September 2010, when the S&P rallied +12.99% with no followthrough on BAC - not even when the CFO bought above $13. So we've got some jet lag going on with BAC which must be corrected. If you study the S&P chart, 1150 was a critical area of resistance, which we just broke through recently. 1150 has to hold in order for more upwards momentum to occur. This is setting up to be another gold-diggin' Andrews Pitchfork it seems. Check this out...



S&P 500 One Year (notice the honeygreen trendline, which would be the median line on the Andrews Pitchfork)








BAC One Year (notice the previous positive correlation and now the negative correlation with S&P 500)








Isn't that beautiful? My portfolio wasn't that beautiful today though. Even though I added BAC, it was still:



-0.76% on the SBA
-0.46% on the Roth IRA



Poor CENX reported third quarter losses of $16.8 million, missing by about $0.23 according to my E*Trade platform. So it turned out to be quote unquote luck that I sold it, although not at the intermediate top. But I want to buy back again and ride this one to $20. I must wait for the right moment... when it's practically screaming "touch my market bottom." It's getting pretty uncomfortable in Extended Hours Trading with CENX... -4.62% already!



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