Sunday, October 25, 2009

Some More Rusty Says...


I've been following Rusty Vanneman's E*Trade market commentary for some time and find that he's had quite an excellent grasp of market directionality for at least the past two quarters.

Last week, I attended another one of his webinars. Here are some notes - and I hope I'm not putting any words in his mouth, because admittedly, I was a bit sleepy, but here goes:

1. We're officially in a bull market, which is defined as a move of +20%.
2. The typical bull market run yields +114% and lasts about 47 months. So, given this, the current market has a good chance of running further. We might see a bit of 'the greater the drop, the greater the bounce' type thing going on.
3. Typical perma-bears are good for marketing, but not for investing. LOL.
4. Valuations still tend to be low at this point in time, so basically if we're careful, we can still find good value for our money. Sectors he's looking at: healthcare, technology, consumer staples, and energy.
5. Apparently, a lot of money has been flowing out of the stock market recently. Seems the beneficiary has been the commodities market. However, in general, investors are in a 'buy the dip' kind of mood.
6. Rusty's bullish on the USD at this point in time.
7. In previous crises, 2.6% of GDP was the typical stimulus response. During this crisis, stimulus levels have reachd about 10% of GDP.
8. Low GDP / Low CPI, believe it or not, leads to good stock market returns.

Rusty, we love you! Oops - perhaps a bit too enthusiastic there. For God's sake, he's married. Get a grip, ForexDiva!


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