Tuesday, October 13, 2009

Pattern Anticipation & Market Concentration

I'm not going to shut up and trade today because I didn't find any suitable trades on either USD/CHF or GBP/JPY. But I did notice the DJIA has been in a bull flag pattern for a while and we are nearly reaching the top of the bull flag projection.

For me, this means I should pay very close attention to how DJIA holds up, especially since the majority of my stocks are high beta stocks.

I'd like to get more into pattern anticipation and will need to find the right tools for this. I suppose Elliott Wave could be one of the tools. What else could work? Hmmm...

On another note, I think market concentration has a lot to do with why the market rebound seems to have been unbelievably rapid. When you think about it, the market is now in fewer hands since Lehman collapsed and Bear Stearns and Merrill were acquired. There are a lot less players and if the structure of the market has changed, this could hopefully have positive implications for stock prices. However, again, it could be the proverbial double edged sword, depending on how the last few standing have positioned themselves.

No comments: