Wednesday, February 23, 2011

Who's Going In the Confessional Booth With Me?


... If you wanted to ride C's trend as much as I did, at any cost, then you're probably feeling about as bimbo as I do now. Good thing I didn't tell you what I wanted to buy, or you would have blamed it on me.

I set a buy on C in my Roth IRA at $4.90 last week and thanks to a relatively favourable open, I got filled at $4.83. That still put me back $0.14 per share and on that partial position, I'm already down -2.89%, although the full Roth IRA position is still in profitability - about +25.88% in the Roth IRA alone but a mediocre +3.91% on the full position. C closed at -4.48% on daily volume that was 2.56x the 10-day average vs. the Sultan's -3.41% decline. For the time being, moving into that partial position of C was a slightly better move. However, time will tell.

My bimbo estimate is that C should stay above $4 this year, but does the market ever fully respond as we expect? Don't forget I had a big enough trading ego to expect to have six job offers the minute I left Belgium and am now experiencing the lesson of a bird in hand is better than six in the bush. Let's see how my drama pans out. But the minute any company in my industry sees me as exhibiting any signs of weakness, I would become a distressed sale. So, I can't let that happen. The fact is that I can live for at least four years on credit cards alone if my cash runs out. And I won't let that happen!

One thing's clear: loyalty is a two-way street. Had I not been investigated by a second-tier accountant with very bad taste in ties (at best), I would have probably been able to bite the bullet rather than shoot myself right in the financial foot. That audit alone to me was a sure-enough leading indicator that my time at the company was limited either way. It was not the audit itself - but for God's sake, do it discreetly without me knowing. That was like a stab in the back right in front of my face. And I had really just one thing going for me that I did better than anyone else (no, not forex) - and it was this application process in my industry. So I had to leverage it.

After a relatively good weekend, during which I served my family bland and boring lobster salad and a bit-too-rare prime rib, my culinary skills are apparently not the only skill set on the decline. But I managed to put a band-aid on a broken ankle for the time being and my siblings even brought dessert and wine for dinner. When I left for Belgium, my little brother was only 14 and now he's old enough to buy me zinfandel and merlot! I totally remembered when he was my height!

How could I let it get so bad? I now know I can't cook as well with six guests arriving earlier than expected, but it didn't even matter. My family told me they liked my bland cooking. But what excuse have I got for my trading going downhill?

I don't have any and I'm going to make it my sincere objective to learn from the bears! Because without the bears, the bulls can't make money either. We're two sides of the same coin and if I trade with hatred in my chart, that's not going to do my trading any good.

So anyway I was at the Traders Expo most of the day and didn't get a chance to watch the bid and ask sizes - which would be useful information to have.

However, I learned something powerful from Brian Dolan's Ichimoku presentation today. I was too shy to say hello, but his presentation was one of the best - other than BFF forex broker's presentation. He said that if we're truly in a trend, then prices have to be consistently getting higher month on month - or year on year. And I wondered if anyone tried charting US unemployment or NFPs on the Ichimoku system. If so, I'm hoping that the Senkou lines are forecasting an uprising. Are we above the tenkan and the kijun lines yet? What about the chikou?

My portfolio? If I didn't have a stronger character, I would be in tears because my head seems to be the only thing in the clouds:

-3.63% on the SBA
-3.33% on the Roth IRA




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