Monday, August 17, 2009

Is This Another Colossal Failure of Common Sense?

Over the past few days, I've had no trading conviction whatsoever. I was bearish one day and bullish the next, but I did manage to see my portfolio advance towards a good double digit recovery. Not that anyone takes my trading very seriously, but I did meet someone recently who told me that all accounts need to start from somewhere, which was slightly encouraging.

I was tempted to sell some of my equity positions during extended trading hours around my lunch time - prior to 8 am Eastern time. But I was watching GBP/JPY and noticed something strange going on. Nikkei and FTSE were down anywhere from 2-3%, but GBP/JPY hadn't moved that much by GBP/JPY standards.

I was talking myself into staying in my trades at that point - never a good position to be in.

Is it actually fear that's driving the downwards trajectory today or is it profit-taking?

Finally, I decided to sell part of my C position out of a combination of uncertainty and impatience. I recently just received more proxy materials from C in relation to the reverse split they are proposing. First, they want to increase shares. They then want to do a reverse split somewhere down the line. I voted against all of this, but have a feeling it will still go through.

How am I ever going to get out of this entire C position with any bit of financial dignity?

This is clearly a case when it's only funny when you're not the one in the situation.

I used the cash from the partial sale to purchase some more Finlay bonds. I figured if I'm going to be trapped either way for a prolonged time period, I might as well invest in something with a better risk:reward level. I'm quite certain Finlay bonds are worth much more than their current trading price. So, I'm actually saying here that I believe more in a company that's already filed for bankruptcy rather than an equity position in C. How's that for confidence?

Is this another colossal failure of common sense? If it is, then it wouldn't be my first.

But what if C retraces drastically after more shares are issued as I expect it to? That would then be the ideal time for me to plan my escape.

Something to ponder...

Oh, I want to be free already!

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