Monday, August 1, 2011

OMG... Did I Just Take Myself Out of An Ascending Triangle Formation?


MS got really, scarily bid at the last minute of trading. I saw six figure bid sizes going on with both BAC and MS and it's just as well that I almost simultaneously put myself into BAC after getting out of MS. But it makes me wonder... did I just take myself out of an ascending triangle formation on MS? It looks really kind of compelling when I look back on it and I was tempted to join in with the MS bidders, but opted against it since BAC and MS are slightly correlated. On the longer term charts, BAC and MS look similar, but on the short term charts - 5 day and 3 month in particular, MS seems to have a bit of an upper hand in terms of the ascending triangle formation. If it fails, I wouldn't want to be in that position though.

And I have a long term plan for BAC. I placed my new BAC position in my SBA. The position from earlier on in the year, which is painfully about 30% off, is in my Roth IRA. So once the SBA BAC position starts going up and broaching 52WH, I'm going to take profit depending on how bullish the market is at that point. I'm then going to allow the Roth IRA BAC position to run. This was exactly how I should have played it with my previous BAC run-up from... I believe it was early 2009 or 2010 - can't remember when, but I had a good time with BAC once. Do I sound sort of like George Dubbaya Bush? Well, it's better than sounding helpless like Obama's US Debt Ceiling Deal Announcement, but I digress. He may be tired, but he has to keep treading - just like the rest of us.

I saw an interesting article in FT about how Japanese companies are now slightly more open to investments from Chinese companies, which makes me think that my NMR and MFG buys from earlier on in the year, which are about 15% off, could still have a fighting chance. I don't know... I've been bullish all year and from the way things are going, I could still be two years too early. Just based on the high six figure bids on BAC though, I could just as well be laughing all the way to the bank very soon - but you never know. I took profit on MS and downsized my market risk, then got into a stock with an upside potential of over +56% based on hitting the 52WH. Never mind that I was musing that MS could skyrocket past $100 based on balance sheet alone just a few days before.

I entered the position based on options chains analysis. You can't expect your one night stand to want to marry you...

-0.07% SBA
+0.74% Roth IRA
-0.09% DJIA
-0.43% Nasdaq
-0.41% S&P



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