Tuesday, August 2, 2011

I Wonder What the Future NY Fed President...


... Chairman of the Federal Reserve / US Treasury Secretary would have to say about today's market action because clearly we need new ones! I nominate...

Well, I have an opinion for everything and so far, I've been wrong left and right, so I'm going to just let my report card squeak for itself:

-1.84% SBA
-1.23% Roth IRA
-2.91% DJIA (sorry, my WSJ page didn't refresh, so I had old % up here - now corrected...)
-2.75% Nasdaq
-2.56% S&P


We're at a very critical S&P level and I'm going to keep an eye on 1200 as a break below 1200 could be perceived as unfortunately and emphatically bearish. The more I look at the BAC chart, the more I think the bears won't leave us alone until we get to 2009 levels, especially since today's selling was marked by heavy volumes. So I fear I'm two years too early with BAC. Based on technical analysis, if $9 can't hold, $5 could be a very scary possibility. We know the bears won't stop until we get bargain basement prices on JPM. I just put in a top secret bid on JPM - don't know whether we'll get to that level, but when I do, you'll be the first to know.

If you've been looking at 5 August options chains, look ahead to 20 August options chains. It could indicate when the tide will finally turn. I'm keeping my eye on options chains since my MS options play was so much fun.

Good thing I offset some of my risk yesterday and cut my position size to about 38% of my original MS investment. Although it would have limited my upside, it also limited my downside today. Portfolio rebalancing is a very beautiful, enticing thing, isn't it? It would have been even more beautiful had I managed a daily profit rather than a loss.



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