Philly Fed put my portfolio in the red and my Crash & Earn hopes were dashed as my portfolio unexpectedly got cremated by the bears' double dip cries, which pushed 10-year Treasury yields to 60 year lows. For the record, double dip has been the bears' battle cry for the past 2.5 years and Lehman is edging closer and closer to exiting bankruptcy. When it does, it'll be like another dose of quantitative easing as a tonne of cash that has been locked up for years will begin to flood the market.
NXG and PAL are newcomers to my SBA today. I sold off CENX at about a $1 per share profit - close to +10%, decided to try to buy a CENX or BCS dip, then opted for NXG - another gold and copper junior miner to complement TGB. I then got out of GEN at a loss of about 25% and went into North American Palladium (PAL), which is a palladium, platinum, and gold miner. If gold is about to crash, I just bought the top, although these miners are certainly fairly discounted from their 52WHs. Just why? It almost seems these stocks have an inverse correlation with metal prices.
My Roth IRA has been battered this year and I'm planning to either rebalance or do a capital injection. I'm not sure yet. If I had no standards, I would step back and say that this is supposed to be a retirement account and therefore, I can take a 30-year view on it. However, I am convinced that doing short-term trades has its benefits. In fact, if I could just figure out which stock index to align my portfolio with at the right time, I would be able to consistently pull in above-average returns. For instance, I notice that DJIA is more of a risk-off type of index whilst Nasdaq is more high beta. If I invest in DJIA plays right before a crash, my portfolio would perform better than the rest of the market. Conversely, when risk is about to take off, Nasdaq stocks would give me better returns.
To anyone who thinks US housing is the end-all be-all of the US economy... put on your glasses! Retail sales comprise around 70% of US GDP... Plus, if we take an average selling price of $174,000 per house, sales of 4.67 million existing homes would equate to annual transactions of close to $812.58 billion if I did my calculations correctly. That's still substantial if you ask me, so the bears have nothing to get worked up about.
-5.29% SBA
-4.14% Roth IRA
-3.68% DJIA
-5.22% Nasdaq
-4.46% S&P
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