Wednesday, April 28, 2010

Hey Sweetchart...


On a much more serious note, I have been tracking bond yields for the past few weeks. I noticed that there hasn't been that much fluctuation.

I think that a sustainable push up in the equities market is only possible if we get:

1. an exodus from the bond market
2. an exodus from gold into oil

So, my question is... where has all the moola gone over the past few weeks?

It can't be into more bonds because bond market yields have no more downside potential, meaning bond prices can't get any higher. Short term bonds in the 3-month to 2 year range in all categories from CDs to Treasuries to Municipals are all yielding in the low single digits. The best yields so far seem to be 20 year Municipals A bonds, yielding 7.1%.

That is essentially investors saying that they would rather be in 20 year Municipals A bonds rather than being in what is perceived as higher risk assets such as equities. In my diva opinion, that's ludicrous. People would rather get 7.1% a year for 20 years in a Municipal bond rather than be invested in the stock market? Ironic + ridiculous given all the news on Greece and now Spain! There are still better bargains in the stock market than the bond market.

So, I looked at gold and gold is still stuck in a Bimbo Limbo of its very own. It's been ranging since January and even with all the boos surrounding the European Debt Dilemma, we haven't seen a new high yet.

What about our dear friend, Franc? Even Franc didn't strengthen much against the USD. Since the USD has been rallying, I think we can see some more upwards potential in the equities market even though the sky is falling - yet again.

I suspect a lot of cash is now off the table and it has to go somewhere. Where? In real estate?

Regardless, the real beneficiaries, of course, will be the FWFs on Capitol Hill.


Spain Got Downgraded to Training Bra Territory?


Oh, it was already in training bra territory? Right. So that caused more of a whoop there it is than FOMC.

Hit me, Bernanke, one more time...

What you got boy is hard to find.
I think about it all the time.
I'm all strung out.
My charts are fried.
I just can't get you off my mind.

Because your extended period is my drug...

I don't care what people say
The rush is worth the price I pay...

Did he even mention extended period? Who knows, who cares? But DJ ForexDiva is back and my portfolio was really much happier today - except for the GBP/USD long I'm still in, which I shall place on the backburner for the time being. I got pan fried! Like rice. But my portfolio's slightly smokin'.

+2.28% on the standard brokerage
+1.83% on the Roth IRA

BAC did not retrace today. Good news either way for me, but I'm really watching for it to hit the $14 level between now and July - right before its next earnings announcement.


Tuesday, April 27, 2010

Yikes, Camera, Reverse Price Action!


A very big oops just about sums up my portfolio for today.

-3.65% on the standard brokerage
-3.76% on the Roth IRA

It was not beautiful and on behalf of all diva-kind, I do not approve this retracement. This Goldiggin' Scandal has reversed weeks of hard work and Bernanke did not help.

I will take the high road and view this as an opportunity to add to my portfolio rather than be all Fraidy and shoot myself right in the foot again. Having said that, BAC options chains do not look good. If we're lucky, we may be able to buy at $14 again between now and July. I am actually personally looking forward to this. After I got played like air piano at the $15 level, I've been waiting for a retracement that has never happened. Perhaps this is the moment!

I did not pay up for BAC... We can lose our marbles, but we shall not lose our standards - or our chastity. But that's another story. My trading chastity is not exactly pristine, now is it?


Bernanke Blues...


Here I was, thinking I was about to become some lyrical miracle with another one-hit wonder, when Bernanke hit a home run. Talk about upping the batting average. For once, Bernanke did not tank the dollar, but he did kill the equities market. I think he even hit GBP/USD with his bat. That was one hit, Bernanke! I got black and blues along with the Guys of London. I am watching the 1.52 area very, very closely. I am questioning my judgment and wondering whether I should get an annulment with this GBP/USD long position.

I think I've fallen in love and I told myself not to get emotional. After being in this trade for such a long time, maybe it's time to abandon the trendship and call it a day? But tomorrow's FOMC. The end of the month is also just a few bars away. Plus, I really want to find out how hung this parliament is. I am almost 100% certain that once the political uncertainty is alleviated, seasonality will work its magic and the Guys of London will be the Most Alpha Males on Earth once again. Winners don't quit and quitters don't win. Right?

The European Debt Dilemma, however, is a big question mark. In previous years, it wasn't that much of a going concern. I'm going to have to ponder this a bit more. If the GBP/USD Weekly Chart closes with some semblance of stamina, I am going to hold onto this horse a bit more.

Let's dust ourselves off with those feather dusters, Guys of London!

Ooohhh... whatever you do, don't hurt me.



Monday, April 26, 2010

Oh, Dear God! Again?


It was not a good day for my portfolio and I'm trying to distance myself from the F Word. The F, of course, is for Failure.

-2.3% on the standard brokerage
-3.1% on the Roth IRA

The Guys of London, however, are back and really, really alpha. It's no surprise that they're capable of such mischief. They hit 1.5497 as a high today. That's very naughty, Guys of London! I bet they stopped a lot of people out. But I reckon this will continue into the summer months. That's usually when they're the most alpha... Getting ready for summer holidays and such. Perhaps it puts them in that special kind of mood.

Is this the week we'll finally see a weekly close above 1.5436? Well, haven't we got another Bernanke Soapbox Moment and FOMC this week? Is Bernanke ever USD positive? It's like, when Bernanke talks, turn up the wok and cook up some smoked pips a la USD shorts.

What have I been smokin'? Apparently, not enough pips.

And whilst I'm at it...

If you don't pay attention to news, you'll get abused.
If you don't follow the news, you're gonna get screwed.
If you don't heed the news, you're bound to get black and blues.

I'm so bimbo, but why not... I've had a bad day. I'm swimming in work and ticking off all the things I didn't do, but should get to asap before blogging some non-sense. The best thing to do is laugh a little.


Thursday, April 22, 2010

You Drive, I'll Ride?


The Guys of London have been swinging me around and I'm practically breathless and definitely confused. At best, I was up 30 pips on today's high. So do they love my prices or not? Please don't hurt me like that again. I'm financially fragile and vulnerable. And I need real action - fast and maybe a bit more intensely.

After paying more attention to economic data announcements, I've started noticing levels that tend to be in play whenever an announcement gets released. It makes me see price action from a different perspective. So, I'm starting to ponder why price action occurs in the fashion that it does.

The market is comprised of a fusion of different players. Some do air piano and others bring out the violin. Others are momentum players whilst some are contrarians. I think when I finally figure out these footprints in the sand, hiding behind a coral reef will become much easier.

My portfolio's sadder than me today...

-0.46% on the standard brokerage
-0.49% on the Roth IRA

Retirement... is that in the cards for me? My portfolio has recovered a lot, but I was expecting a lot more. I am watching bond yields every day.

I think another leg up can only occur if short term yields on CDs and corporate bonds start increasing. This would indicate an exodus from the bond market occurring, signifying increasing investor confidence. It's also possible that once tax refund cheques start arriving, we might see a bit more sizzle.

Bond yields are still ludicrously low according to me. The good news, perhaps, is that they bond yields really have not been decreasing at an accelerated pace, which tells me that any news on Greece, Gold-diggin' Sachs, Obama's War on Wall Street, et al, is not really being acted upon. The bond market can only really benefit from real fear in my diva opinion.


Wednesday, April 21, 2010

Update on GBP/USD Weekly Chart...

I am definitely not the most patient person in the world, so trading a weekly chart is a bit of an exercise in patience.

Recall the GBP/USD Weekly Chart I was eyeing some time back. It is now starting to look even more compelling because the recent push up in prices brings us closer to the erogenous 1.5436 area. If prices remain poised above this zone, this could be bigger than... well, maybe just plain big. But that's what I said last week.

Are we going to see 1.80 this year? I really wonder. Weekly charts are possibly like the Hermes Kelly waiting list. You could be on it for years. I'll be happy even with a retest of last year's high, which was about 1.7043.




Bwahaha...


The Guys of London got out their Bwahahas today in time for tomorrow's 5 Star Event. It's their Big Moment... are they going to shine and make my position sublime?

Notice how once there's any economic data announcement, all the talk about their hung parliament fades to the backdrop. It's like that Margaret Thatcher quote... "I always cheer up immensely if an attack is particularly wounding because I think, well, if they attack one personally, it means they have not a single political argument left."

Something else fading to the backdrop? My portfolio!

-0.69% on the standard brokerage
-0.02% on the Roth IRA

I've got a high beta stock that doesn't much move now in the name of Harry Winston Diamond Corporation. I've got another high beta stock that makes a very big impact on my portfolio even with the slightest shift in the name of Citifrog. I should be kinder to C and show it more market respect. My portfolio recovery still depends so much on C... it gets me thinking... Should I be rebalancing my portfolio any time soon?

I haven't actually got any place to move the moola if I do rebalance my portfolio. So, I'm going to have to do more homework and think vertically, horizontally, all sectors, any sector. In two words: open relationships.

MS is still bringing my portfolio a bit of plaisir and earnings were much better than expected.

That does not mean we should be resting on our corals. We do not want to become International Women of History.

OK, those were two bad jokes...


Tuesday, April 20, 2010

Rusty's the Man!

Yes, he is!

Well, other than Brian Dolan that is...




Moola Moola Moo In That Cash Cow Kind of Way...


Today, I decided to try out my little black dress setup on CAD/JPY. All the indicators lined up and there were little black dresses everywhere, so I shorted CAD/JPY at about 91.792. Then, a little voice inside me said, remember that time when we got plucked by missing our target by 5 porkin' pips? There was the BOC Rate Announcement and Goldman had just reported earnings. There was a very distinct possibility the little black dresses might need to come off - and fast. So, I just took my 4 pips rather than risk getting plucked again. It turned out to be a very good move, especially since I'm still in Bimbo Limbo with the Guys of London.

Next time, though, I'm going to have to learn to read sentiment a bit better. I thought the Guys of London liked my prices since they kept hugging them. Then, they ignored my little red dress and headed south after doing the whole 67 pip thing on me first.

On the equities front, two consecutive trading days that were much better than expected did not leave me any sweeter.

Yesterday:

+2.65% on the standard brokerage
+3.64% on the Roth IRA


Today:

+1.46% on the standard brokerage
+1.26% on the Roth IRA


The Guys of London are inching back higher, but they still leave me gasping for more. We're so close and the stove's definitely hot. We have MPC Meeting Minutes and Claimant Count out tomorrow. Are the Guys of London going to get their Bwahahas out so I can make some more moola moola moo?

I've marked 22 April 2010 as the Guys of London's Big Moment. Yes, it's trend on trend time with five major events related to the GBP/USD pair... And if that's not enough, 23 April brings more potential for electric price action.

If we get any back-to-back back-up-the-truck luck, we might see 1.56 this week. Fingers and trading legs crossed!

Oh, just in case anyone thought I'm not talking enough... I was trying to call my BFF forex broker and dialled 877-GO-FOREX instead of 877-FOREX-GO... You do not want to know what happened.

Why do these types of bimbo incidents always happen to me?