Market Abuse: The Spin-off or the Sequel?

Today, my portfolio was more ridiculous than Michael Douglas' gold-diggin' ex-wife. So, I've gotta ask: is this market abuse the spin-off or the sequel?

-5.55% on the SBA
-5.36% on the Roth IRA

This is the worst trading day in the history of ForexDiva... oh wait, that was 16 August 2007, the day I shall remember for the rest of my trading life. Yes, the day I QU got liquidated and lost a good five figures in one shot. It's still very painful and I've been putting off something that I should have done long ago - that is, go back to that USD/JPY chart and figure out what the pluck I did wrong other than implementing some VBMM (Very Bad Money Management).

BCS is burning me and it was the biggest loser of the day for me. -7.01%... if that doesn't scare off everyone who's not serious about a long term monogamous one-on-one trendship with benefits with BCS, I don't know what will. This was a move that sold off on above-average volume and it leaves me wondering... is this a Lipstick on A Frog Moment? Don't dis it before you kiss it, right? Now that I've kissed it, I'm not sure if it's a frog yet and I'm not entirely sure the kiss was half bad. So, I think I'll wait to see if BCS will call again at the $18 level.

Speaking of which... don't ever do what I did and go from looking at a 15 minute chart to a Daily to a Weekly. That's like... a guy hasn't called in 15 minutes... which becomes a day... and then a week. LOL. Duh, the price isn't going to happen again!

Don't let the above-average volume scare you off either. Not every stock does that on the same trading day and one needs to also assess the bid / ask sizes. So far, I was pushed into almost selling C. I then decided... no... 16 July is just a few weeks away and we've been selling off since April. This is pent-up market saturation and sooner or later, we're going to have to relieve some of that pressure, won't we?

The only beam of light in my trading day was a QU lucky break with a long GBP/JPY position that happened at exactly the right time at exactly the right prices. It didn't have to be that way, though. Last night, I set three buy orders on my tiny, bike-sized forex trading account. All three orders were at relatively ridiculous prices.

I set a buy on GBP/JPY at 139.39 as well as a buy on GBP/USD at 1.45 and finally a top secret SD support level on EUR/CHF, which shall not be disclosed for fear of being arbitraged / mocked / ridiculed.

Anyway, I finally got some trading plaisir - getting filled at 139.39 and getting filled again at 133.873. During my Lunchtime Fun session, I was delighted to see that after several days of being unable to get a trade on, I was finally in one and it had already moved in my favour by about 40 pips. I nearly took profit straight away, but then decided to brush the pips a bit more and set my limit to 134.10. After some time, I decided... you know, I better check in with my forex broker and see how this trade is going because something doesn't feel right - which is when I got out of the trade at +54.39 pips.

Laugh all you want at my small pips, but if I didn't bank it and thank it, I would be spewing venom all across the forex world right now - and the equities market and the bond market for good measure.

According to me, a really big move has to happen in the forex market for this sell-off to be justified as a real one. There wasn't enough volume on the push down. So, I'm going to wait and see. The damage has been done anyway. How much worse could it get than over -5% on a single day?

Having said that, I'm going to keep my EUR/CHF buy at this ridiculously low level.

I'm not going to have any sort of currency bias this time since forex trading could be my only trading plaisir for some time to come if my portfolio continues to be naughty.

I discovered the existence of Cristiano Ronaldo yesterday and was all... if PCP doesn't work out, there'll be CR. What? I can't possibly ever pull off the whole photo with python thing anyway, which is what seems to be PCP's thing.

Am I still being indiscreet?

BCS vs BARC

Today's session was nothing to moan about and I'm going to have to be a bit more discreet here. Who knows who's reading my blog? Not that I have much of a reputation to defend. Here I am thinking this is more my personal trading sanctuary where I can occasionally oooh and aah over the market excitement that is trading.

Anyway, I just don't get the price action on BCS vs. BARC. BARC moved up +1.48%... not that big of a deal, but GBP/USD also rallied following the G20 event. I hate the GOL forever! How can they move their treasure trunk like that and leave me out of the ride up? Bah humbug!

Anyway again... in theory, shouldn't BCS move up along with the push up on BARC and GBP/USD? Based on today's GBP/USD rate, and if I did the calculations correctly, BCS is only worth 258.59 pence whilst BARC closed at 285.35 pence. What's up with the discrepancy?

I did some more calculations and if BARC hits the 52WH of 394.25 pence and we get to a GBP/USD rate of 1.55, this would in theory place BCS at $25.43.... I would then be making 45.73% on this trade. If GBP/USD gets to 1.70, BCS gets priced at $23.19 and I would then be making 32.89% on this trade. So, I got my trading philosophy on backwards? I thought BCS would go up if GBP/USD goes up... I'm hoping BCS will hit the 52WH either way, which would put me at +47.16%. Yahoo!

OK, if I did something bimbo with the calculations, you're welcome to tell me off.

Like I said, there was nothing to sigh about today:

+0.30% on the SBA
+0.59% on the Roth IRA

I've been pondering the meaning of trading some more... Why are Moving Averages on eSignal limited to 3 figures? I'm dying to turn on the stove and try out some 4 figure Moving Averages! Crazy, I know... Just like me, I reckon!

Piaget Limelight Jazz Party: I Really Respect This Creativity...

I haven't seen anything worthy of mentioning on the luxury front for a while, but this Piaget Limelight Jazz Party Secret Watch caught my attention straight away - although it's been out for a while now.

If I was only meant to have one luxury watch ever, how can I ever decide? I wish I could change my mind every 15 minutes...

I think I'm the type who's always wanting to be different, but then I end up doing what most other people do, which is selecting the most classic, safe option. If money wasn't an issue, which it always is, this would be in my collection.

High Beta Sighs: Rally Totally Up My Alley

So this is why a high beta portfolio is so fun. Portfolio recovery is much more intense, although the emotional volatility clearly isn't for everyone. I was truly getting so tired of this game at one point. But finally, rays of sunshine have broken through and the Fair Weather may be just around the corner once again. Today's market action indicated that I'm not desperate! I'm not pathetic! And I'm going to get my portfolio recovery on - no matter how long it takes, although I prefer it to be quicker and much, much more vertical.

Unless you had stuff like FNVRF or RNWEF or PHHM in your portfolio, you most likely had a good trading day - or at least one that wasn't as bad as the previous few weeks.

With July earnings just around the bend, this final buying opportunity could turn out to be a Godsend. Final buying opportunity as in final before the next skinny dip. What else is there left to scare everyone and their Mama Bears out? Who knows? I'm the rose-coloured one. If this is the beginning of another bull run as I imagine it to be, then this rally's going to be totally up my alley.

Looks like MS had a good day too, after hitting $24.19 yesterday. So close! I had a feeling it'd get to $23-$24, but had more been hoping it'd get to $23. Then the lawsuit settlement kind of got in the way, didn't it? Let's see if I can wait for a retracement... Otherwise, I'm still into BCS even though it's clearly not showing my portfolio any love.

Oil rallied along with the financial sector. Commodities and retail are also looking solid. Things are lining up! Is this the market turn or am I still in danger of getting burned?

I don't much care! I'm going to avoid gloating, but I am very much pleased and relatively appeased:

+2.89% on the SBA
+1.64% on the Roth IRA

In case anyone's wondering how I can be happy with such a small percentage climb, it's because I've finally been enlightened once and for all. It's better to be banking small percentage gains every day consistently than trying to ride the biggest waves. We need to be participating in the market and taking advantage of the price action.

That's some financial reform for moi... I haven't sold anything yet, but I'm keeping my eye on the ball.

But oh, Professor GOL... they may be ready to stimulate my economy some more next week - or at least give me some unforgettable glasses-off trading!

I may not be the most beautiful woman in the world, but they shall treat me with respect and allow me to touch their smokin' pips on the 15 minute intervals. And I reckon I shall enjoy that very much...

It Couldn't Have Been Worse...

Much worse than my GBP/USD 15 minute chart, which has been my one and only for ages... If I hadn't decided to look at GBP/JPY yesterday, I would still be at a standstill.

-2.04% on the SBA
-2.70% on the Roth IRA

This time, it really, really hurts!

Chanel once said that if she ever gets to a point where she can't do anything more to a dress, she knows it has gotten to its worse possible state - or something to that effect. It always was a very inspiring statement to me because it reminds me to continue to evolve. But this is like my portfolio, isn't it?

I shall cheer myself up by listening to J'ai Fait Un Rêve by Axelle Red. If you don't know French, you can easily mistake it for a song about something else. But translate the lyrics and you'll see it's actually not. The French! They make everything so alluring, but then when you try to get closer...

Kind of like how my portfolio is not the Moola-making Machine I thought it would be. I had my portfolio targeting all planned out and now I'm still not on a solid path of economic recovery. I shall have to figure out new and innovative positions that'll stimulate my economy faster and to greater satisfaction.

If you don't hear from me further, HSFTs, it could be because I've died a very young financial death. Still, I have a bona fide Hermes Kelly... It does not make my trading any less pathetic! I am clearly dying to wrap my trading legs around the very compelling Professors of Finance, my GOL. And because I've been focusing so much on this one pair, my judgment has been clouded. Tomorrow, I'm going to force myself to look at Franc.

I need something big to happen to me! Something big and exciting!! Something bold!! Something...

... that could happen with the next round of earnings announcements, coming to a stock exchange near you in July 2010.

BAC 16 July 2010
C 16 July 2010
MS 23 July 2010


If your stove needs to get turned on, try Faire Des Mamours (Soul Version).

I shall continue to keep my fingers and trading legs crossed - temporarily at least.

Bernanke: Dicey, Icy, Not So Spicy

I attempted to trade FOMC today with my MAT strategy, but it failed to please as the spicy retracements I was hoping for did not occur. Speaking of MATs, I was surprised / intrigued / amused that Yahoo had the audacity to run an online banner campaign with the phrase MAT as a headline. I am serious. Their ad on AdAge.com reads: A MAT you can tell the client about. Check it out if your trading day was as bad as mine. LOL.

Anyway, I'm definitely not on top of the market lately and I practically forgot about FOMC if I didn't receive Brian Dolan's pre-FOMC commentary. I was at one point so gung-ho about news events that I would have placed all top-tier news events in my Outlook if it wasn't so much work. The first forex broker to invent an Outlook news event application will definitely be too cool for words. I hope it'll be my BFF forex broker.

Let's see how the rest of the world reacts to Bernanke's commentary tomorrow. The GOLs are finally starting to get their act together. I'm going to have to look into getting some of their price action very soon.

Today:

-0.43% on the SBA
-0.74% on the Roth IRA

Keep your eyes on MS... it could get to $23 or $24 very soon and if it does, I might buy. I'm still a bit undecided since I haven't been paying attention to MS' client torture legal battle... Has that been settled yet? Granted, the impact on MS' QU brand value will not be as drastic as the Gold-diggin' Scandal. Still... though it makes sense from an analytic standpoint, I'm not sure I could get into some more MS at this time.

BCS, meanwhile, has got woes of its own with the UK regulatory backdrop, but the gold-diggin' part of me would rather be with BCS, the Sultan of Liquidity right now. They wouldn't have to resort to pawning anything in the short term in case anything major happens. Not that MS would either...

I'm clearly confused, so I'm going to do what I do best and hide behind a coral reef until I can get my thoughts and trading legs straightened out.

Bank It & Thank It Everyday

I am not even going to allow myself to hope anymore! I thought BCS would rally some more and HWD would go a bit further north, but ended the day:

-2.2% on the SBA
-1.66% on the Roth IRA

My only Knight In Shining Armour was a long GBP/JPY position during my Lunchtime Fun with the GOL Session.

I banked 57.25 pips with my bike-sized account (no need to applaud), but still feel a bit sleepy and weepy. Hopefully, this is just the beginning of a new winning trendship for me. I'll learn to be grateful with my Bank It & Thank It Everyday Strategy. I'm now going to aim for at least one winning trade every day of the week with my forex trading.

See... I'm testing out a top secret new Honeygreen Moola-Making Moving Average. Do your own homework and just think round-the-clock fun...

I've also crystallised my Market-Dominating Strategy:

1. Four figures cash
2. Assess buying opportunities and buy
3. At +8% to +10%, move stop and review other potential buying opportunities
4. Switch over to Stock B once I get stopped out, or if an opportunity arises due to either earnings announcement, encouraging options movements in Stock B, or both
5. Reinvest original investment and place profit in separate savings account
6. Once profits amount to original investment, invest new stash of cash as well as original four figures over and over and over
7. Always think undervalued + overlooked
8. If necessary, I am not above resorting to hedging my portfolio in case of a bearish turn with a timely forex trade.

Doesn't that sound divine? Looking at this with my rose-coloured glasses, I could be banking four figures in profit very soon if I time everything right. My greatest challenge is to keep moving the cash. My financial complacency is a VBH (very bad habit).

I'm going to sound like a scratched up CD by announcing that we're at the critical 10,000 Maniacs level again on DJIA and Nikkei. Gold and oil have not moved much and miners such as BHP, RTP, X, and AA have gone down south today.

Something interesting I found today:

S&P TSX Global Mining Index

Blah... blah... blah...

Allotta From China

Oooh, dear!

Just when I thought I would be the main beneficiary of today's market stimulation brought to you by China's RMB policy shift, which led to Shanghai rallying +2.9%, Nikkei banking +2.43%, and EuroFirst 300 migrating north by 1.04%, I got home to a major birthday surprise of:

-1.26% on the SBA
+0.11% on the Roth IRA

Strangely, EUR/USD and GBP/USD both declined - as did gold and oil. So the indices may show an optimistic picture, but the financial sector still seems to be off. My portfolio basically comprises mainly risk assets in the financial sector, so something's definitely in the air! But what? If there's fear, why?

DJIA closed above the 200 Day Moving Average the past several sessions and we're still well above the 365 Day Moving Average. Since 200 DMA is still above 365 DMA, this could still be considered a bullish indication and yet the financial sector is generally not rallying, but miners, including BHP, RTP, AA, and X all joined in the Honey Bunny Sunny Money Rally.

Just in case anyone was wondering why I'm such a Royal Pain, I share the same birthday as Prince William. Same day, different year. Definitely a different portfolio too, I reckon.

One of my birthday wishes, besides Prince Carl Philip (what? one can hope... and why don't they make men like this in Belgium), is to finally get rid of my Always Right, Never Making Money disposition. I've had a few years of ATNA now and this time, I'm really going to make it! If I'm going to be six figures this year, I've got to make a run for it.

Today, I had some new trading insight. Our trading capital is like our inventory. We must therefore keep our trading capital turning. So, my new and improved strategy in the most primal sense is:

1. Always keep part of my capital moving. The faster it moves in my direction, the better.

2. Never get locked in with one investment for too long. I have a tendency to stay in a trade for far too long. The longer the capital gets locked up, the more painful it becomes. Remember, the longer you wait, the longer you're bait. So, I'm going to have to bank, bank, bank - especially with my forex trading.

3. If I take a loss, I have to bounce back more quickly and more effiently. I can't sit here and cry about how I lost a few hundred pips and then close my trading legs for a month. I've got to take a leap of faith and just do it - maybe with a new position.

4. Finally, I really have to implement a bull + bear portfolio. If I time it right, I can S&R with one of them at a pivotal market turn and then make a ton of moola. I shall have to find out more about straddling though. I haven't tried that before... not that I know of anyway. So far, it seems the way I can implement this successfully is to use my equities to target a bull market and then use forex to capitalise on a bear market.

It's going to get hot in here again!

Yes, smokin' hot!

A Harvest Every Week

It was an otherwise unremarkable day for my portfolio. Except for Harry Winston, who moved -1.7% back, not much definitive happened.

-0.18% on the SBA
+0.57% on the Roth IRA

BCS had a bit of a move up. I am now +11.41% on a part of the position and +5.82% on the full position. Is this a move that would warrant two gold-diggin' stars? I apparently did something right by selling MS for BCS.

C is moving back up as well - most likely due to Jim Cramer's recommendation / product endorsement.

My colleague had some intriguing insight today, stating that "we're aiming for perfection, but our tools are still largely primitive." That actually is quite true as far as my trading is concerned. But it got me thinking... so long as we get the basics right, all will fall into place.

The chemistry of the trade has got to be there from the start, or the big organic growth that's promised by the risk:reward factor may never fully materialise.

Just a few more months until my PDO is done, so I'll be strategising on how I can make use of the capital injections I'll be receiving every month. I think I shall be more frugal this time around, but it's quite evident I am prone to changing my mind every few days now isn't it? Whatever happened to the bull + bear portfolio I was contemplating the other day that was supposed to stimulate my economy?

At one point, I also thought it would be a good idea to set aside some cash and only trade one stock - all in, all out. My goal now is to move faster and faster with the banking. First, we need to get the accuracy up and then we've got to get the efficiency going and the cash flowing.

Surprisingly, I've been able to get about one harvest every week from my lettuce. The rest of the subsistence farm is still very much in the product development phase. I can't wait to get my hands on some of the carrots! But in case anyone didn't know, lettuce is the pluck and come again type.

I should really like to do that with my trading. Wouldn't you?

Happy weekend, HSFTs!

Proof of My Shopaholism... And Possibly My Insanity!

Cheap and possibly Not-So-Chic Raffia Handbag... 12.95 EUR

Bulgari Twistino Handbag in Nappa Leather

Hermes Kelly Sellier 28 cm in Box Calf Leather (not quite five figures)

Prada (the one I've been throwing around)

Chanel (purchased in beautiful London)

Dior (absolutely adorable... purchased at Neiman Marcus)