Thursday, December 8, 2011

Yikers, Bikers, We're On Rikers: Natural Gas Storage Disaster Day...


If you follow Professor Schlossberg every once in a while, he frequently talks about how people mistakenly put in buy orders when they meant to sell and vice versa in real life trading. I always think, oh yes, that used to be me. So when the Natural Gas Storage numbers came out at -20B, I set a buy order on PQ @ $6.73. I then changed it to $6.63 and finally cancelled it on the knee-jerk-reaction pop to $6.88 right after the news. I didn't think much about my 'cancelled order.' I specifically thought to myself that I would buy something - maybe PQ or JRCC - if VIX tries for 35.

So when I looked at my portfolio after the market closed since I was working on some other stuff for my business for a while, I was open outcry shocked to see my bid had been hit and that I am now stuck with another commodity play loss.

I swear I thought it was cancelled, but now that I look at my cancelled orders, there was another cancelled PQ buy order @ $6.63, so I'm glad the second one didn't go through.

How did two orders get in and how long will it take ForexBimbo to get out of this one? Worse yet, wasn't I supposed to stick to my thus far futile goal of trying to buy an LYG dress on a dip? Amidst the backdrop of the Eurozone bank stress tests, which showed that banks have a 115 billion EUR shortfall, LYG fell -8.33% today, but I still didn't get hit.

Though the implementation of my PQ entry was bimbo, I did have reasons for going into PQ. My research from a couple of days back showed that PQ had a very high short % float number [of 20%] and an even more significant Short Ratio of 8.3, which means that it'll take 8.3 days of trading volume for all the shorts to be covered. This is a long time and if the right dynamic shift occurs, the upside could be significant as the bears run for cover. However, the question is how bad can it get on the other side of the pond?

One thing I'm going to make certain of is that I'll move my free cash over to another account just in case I decide to inadvertently make any other bimbo moves. Cash is good to have in an account, but imagine putting in a buy order with a bid size of a 0 too many and then actually having it go through. On certain pricing, that can even happen with my bike sized account and something like that will even be more painful than my current situation!

Right now, the only thing that can save me is that the party over in the Eurozone ends with champagne rather than empty promises.

-3.58% SBA
-3.23% Roth IRA

-1.63% DJIA
-1.99% Nasdaq
-2.11% S&P

-1.14% FTSE
-1.51% Eurofirst

-0.66% Nikkei
-0.12% Shanghai
-2.30% SENSEX

-2.51% WTI Crude
-1.83% Brent Crude

-1.90% Gold
-1.95% Copper
+1.37% Corn

-0.56% EUR/USD
-0.47% GBP/USD

+6.94% VIX (now that's love...)

-9.39% PQ
-8.73% JRCC
-7.25% HWD
-5.81% CENX
-5.36% SLT



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