Tuesday, October 29, 2013

Will Atlas Shrug Tomorrow?


Maria, I put my money to work and lost my skirt!  I should have known better!  People were clearly short straddles going into AAPL earnings and I still piled in.  When the price action doesn't feel right, it's pretty hard to push things to new heights.  


Based on the disappointing and lacklustre followthrough in AAPL today, I'm going to have to really, really think about whether I want to get into FB.  


AAPL isn't the only example with flailing volatility following earnings.  With YELP, the straddlers were buying at nearly $10 per straddle pre-earnings.  In a perfect world, we'd see a $10 or greater move in either direction and yet, following earnings, we're only seeing a $3 something per share move in Extended Hours Trading.  With LNKD, the straddlers were buying at nearly $25 per straddle pre-earnings.  The initial reaction following LNKD earnings announcement is just about -$12 per share.


The WOW factor is clearly missing, so is this a trend that will continue with the rest of the momo names?

Sure, I'm ticked off that AAPL didn't move as expected even though it has an EPS level that is more than 3x its current P/E, beat both on the top line and bottom line and even promised to launch some new product categories, but it appears the writing was on the wall going into earnings.  I chose to get into it nonetheless and will just have to make better choices in the future.  


The biggest question on everyone else's minds: Will Benjamin Atlas Bernanke shrug tomorrow?  Rick Santelli pointed out that on some Treasury issues, Bernanke is the only buyer.  Sad thought.


We need you desperately, Bernanke!  Please don't shrug...  don't shrug...  (Watched the movie on NFLX and cried, so will probably read the book at some point...)


The biggest question on my mind: will I finally be able to make money tomorrow?  I've got to!


What I now know is: AAPL is clearly a smart money name and I need to find the names where there is dumber money than me in order to make a profit.  LOL.  


So where are those names, praytell?  And the biggest question of all: is there dumber money than me?  LOL.

Homework time!


-19.63% SBA

-3.41% Roth IRA

+0.72% DJIA

+0.31% Nasdaq
+0.56% S&P 

+0.73% FTSE

+0.40% Eurofirst
-0.49% Nikkei
-0.23% Shanghai

-0.50% WTI

-0.74% Brent
+0.57% Gold
+0.64% Copper
+0.35% Corn

-0.61% GBP/USD

+0.52% USD/JPY

0.71 Put / Call Ratio


+0.22% DJT

+0.75% VIX

0.101 Treasurys | DTCC GCF Repo Index

0.105 MBS | DTCC GCF Repo Index

-1.09% 5-Year US Treasury Notes

-0.20% 10-Year US Treasury Notes

59% Advancing Issues on NYSE                          |   64% Up Volume
37% Declining Issues on NYSE                           |   35% Down Volume
3% Unchanged                                                |   1% Unchanged
234 New Highs   |   9 New Lows

57% Advancing Issues on Nasdaq                       |   57% Up Volume
39% Declining Issues on Nasdaq                        |   42% Down Volume
4% Unchanged                                                |   1% Unchanged
220 New Highs   |   18 New Lows


Today's Major Headlines

Batista's Talks With OGX Creditors Fail, Expected To Impact $3.6 Billion Bonds

BBRY Met With FB Last Week On Potential Bid

JPM Deal With US DOJ Could Collapse

White House Knew Millions Couldn't Keep Health Plans (ObamaCare Should Be Repealed!)



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