On the Menu: Extra Stuff...

One of my neighborhood restaurants actually has 'Extra Stuff' listed on their menu.  I could use some Extra Stuff right now.  

Amidst a 195,000 print on NFPs, the S&P finally broke above its 50 SMA and closed above this key level for the first time since circa 19 June 2013, sending the 10-Year US Treasury Notes up +8.56%.  My portfolios continued to head south, sinking deeper and deeper into the fathomless, dark and cold abyss courtesy of ill-chosen calls and a declining VIX pressured by a failed MACD bullish divergence.

The sad thing about some of my calls is that there are 0 bids on many issues, which means I'm pretty much stuck until someone like Mike Khouw gets some volume going.  

Finally, instead of staring at the same data over and over again, I tried my hand at counting Elliott Waves.  Could we be headed towards a double top now back towards the year's SPY highs at 169.07 - which would finally lead to an ABC correction?  

I noticed that the October 2007 S&P high was more or less a 1.236 Fibonacci extension of the July 2006 low of 1240.  In a similar vein, the most recent S&P high of 1667.47 was very close to a 1.236 Fibonacci extension of the November 2013 low of 1359.  Eery?  Uncanny?

So does this mean that I've blinked and missed the market top?  

If we get lucky, we could see another SPY top that perhaps overshoots the previous high by 20 or 30 points to fake everyone out again - just like in 2007.  

If we don't get lucky and people continue selling calls, then I am secretly praying to the Good Lord that there will be an increase in volatility that will somehow white out my promiscuous trading sins.  

Even back in 2006, Unemployment Claims never fell below 300,000 for long, which means that to hope for anything better might just be a futile exercise this time around.  Maybe even Bernanke knows this?  Or maybe he knows better on how to continue to quantitative please the Market Makers.


I've said it once, but I'll say it again.  I'm spooked by the currency action going on even though I don't touch forex with an 18 foot pole anymore, but it all appears reminiscent of 2007 all over again.  Those were the days when GBP/USD hit 2.12 or thereabouts and the EUR/USD kicked it up to about 1.57.  USD/JPY was around 124 and then knife after knife, we got down to 1.43(?) on the GBP/USD and 109 on the USD/JPY in a very, very short time.

If only a light bulb would go on for me so I can get into some positions that will give me some short term profit-taking fun.  

Cramer's going to make me a Wall of Shamer - for sure:

-5.19% SBA
-2.29% Roth IRA

+0.98% DJIA
+1.04% Nasdaq
+1.02% S&P 

-0.72% FTSE
-1.31% Eurofirst
+2.08% Nikkei
+0.05% Shanghai
+0.44% SENSEX
+1.89% Hang Seng

+2.18% WTI
+2.07% Brent
-2.41% Gold
-2.87% Copper
+1.00% Corn

-0.65% EUR/USD
-1.10% GBP/USD
+1.16% USD/JPY
+0.50% EUR/JPY
-0.45% EUR/GBP

+1.54% DJT
-8.09% VIX

+8.56% 10-Year US Treasury Notes

53% Advancing Issues on NYSE
45% Declining Issues on NYSE
2% Unchanged

60% Up Volume
39% Down Volume
1% Unchanged

71% Advancing Issues on Nasdaq
25% Declining Issues on Nasdaq
4% Unchanged

69% Up Volume
30% Down Volume
1% Unchanged


From the Market Wizards David Ryan interview: "So, in the consolidation phase, decreasing volume is good.  If you continue to see very high volume, do you start thinking potential top?  Yes, because that shows that a lot of people are getting out of the stock.  You want an increase in volume when the stock breaks out, but you want a decrease in volume as the stock consolidates...  When the market, or a stock, is bottoming, you want to see increased volume combined with an absence of further price progress on the downside.  For example, if the Dow declines from 2200 to 2100, trades down to 2085 the next day, and then closes higher on increased volume, it demonstrates support.  It suggests that there are a lot of buyers coming in."