Monday, April 22, 2013

I'm Going To Have To Stop Buying $2 Puts!


Since I had such a profitable week last week, over the weekend, I decided I could convert my quote unquote luck into sustainable profits by utilising the VIX + SPY potent combination to uplift my portfolio - perhaps even everyday.  

Unfortunately, my timing is still not precise enough.  One thing I'm going to have to stop doing is to avoid buying $2 puts!  I obviously haven't learned that this is a bad entry level - having been dinged by this level several times over the past few months.  Just as stocks get too expensive at certain levels, so do options.  In hindsight, I've clearly overpaid for two SPY issues this month as these could be had for dollars less today.

Do the bulls have more room to run?  

What we now know is that many investors got assigned on the recent SPY options expiry to the tune of tens of millions of SPY shares - mostly buyers of the SPY either in the form of naked call sellers who were forced to purchase, downright bullish call buyers who decided to purchase and put sellers who had no choice but to purchase.  

The key question is: When will they all sell?  

I'm watching for signs of very large ask blocks for confirmation and if we get definitive upside action tomorrow, I'll either add to my existing SPY puts or join the bulls by buying some VXX puts - perhaps even both...

Margin calls apparently prevailed in the gold market last week and those that escaped getting chopped last week may yet get their chance over the short term.  So I'm going to watch for a bounce to pounce and perhaps buy GLD puts or puts in gold miners...

Such a shame, but I've got no one but myself to blame:

-3.63% SBA
-0.74% Roth IRA

+0.14% DJIA
+0.86% Nasdaq
+0.47% S&P 

-0.09% FTSE
+0.16% Eurofirst
+1.89% Nikkei
-0.11% Shanghai
+0.81% SENSEX (Will we see 2010 highs, Maharajas?)

+0.91% WTI
+0.87% Brent
+2.06% Gold
-0.94% Copper
-0.92% Corn

+0.29% DJT
-3.87% VIX


Flash Manufacturing PMI + New Home Sales + Richmond Manufacturing Index tomorrow...



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