Thursday, April 11, 2013

Blah Humbug: Kadai'ed By the SPY...


Welcome to Day 11 of the Lame Duck ForexDiva Blah Humbug Monthly Casino, where I insert dollars and end up with pennies by buying SPY puts.  What makes me, The Economiss, so convinced the market will go down?  Have I lost my mind?  

I don't know, but the charts are really starting to point to a turn and the prospect of selling the S&P triple top or H&S on the one-year charts drives me to rather obsessive-compulsive double down behaviour matched only by the conviction bulls' buying fervour.  

I'm kind of regretting the SPY $152 puts right now.  My strategy right now is to keep the SPY $155 and SPY $158 puts alive.  As long as these two issues end up being profitable enough to cover the SPY $152 losses and then some, I can make money either by the grace of profit-taking or an outright turn of the financial tides in my preferred market direction.  

The momentum is clearly starting to slow down:

1. DJT closed in the red, failing to make new highs in sync with the DJIA and S&P
2. Big blocks of selling on the SPY with Money Flow on the high side and MACD heading down on the 10-day 15-minute charts with increasingly bigger red candles starting to show up at the higher levels
3. VIX is starting to bottom
4. Oil is not rallying and WTI hasn't seen the $100 level for about a year
5. No major currency moves


-1.84% SBA
-0.78% Roth IRA

+0.42% DJIA
+0.09% Nasdaq
+0.36% S&P 

+0.45% FTSE
+0.56% Eurofirst
+1.96% Nikkei
-0.30% Shanghai
+0.69% SENSEX

-1.26% WTI
-1.48% Brent
+0.11% Gold
+0.47% Copper
+0.31% Corn

-0.27% DJT
-0.97% VIX



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