Wednesday, November 3, 2010

Tea Party In the USA


Bernanke set the record straight today with a $600 billion QE2 programme. The market didn't seem to do too much, but my portfolio hasn't had a day like this in a while:

+0.69% on the SBA
+0.68% on the Roth IRA

I looked at some of the biggest winners and biggest losers that I'm following and here's how the scene appears:

ABK +9.55% [housing sector]
FOLGF +7.63% [commodity]
LDK +7.03% [alternative energy]
TGB -24.23% [commodity]
PHHM -12.73% [housing sector]
FNVRF -9.28% [alternative energy]

It would seem that risk is on, but I'm not so sure. What's really happening is the stocks that got sold prior to the announcement got bought back up again and the ones that were overbought got sold again. Commodities, housing sector, and alternative energy were all implicated since politics and policy-making were at the forefront. C got bought up before QE2, but didn't do much today. People were taking some money off the table and then buying back again.

The question is: will there be QE3? I'm sure Wall Street wouldn't be above doing a few week sell-off in order to get Bernanke to pump up the volume on the printing presses again. I'll be looking at the forex market for some confirmation. If I see the JPY pairs going crazy, then it'll be the biggest indication of where the market is really headed.

For now, I'm not too worried about BAC. BAC is no longer a QU risk asset considering that it got sold off so much this year. We managed to touch a new 52WL, but haven't broken below it for good. So just a bit more patience is in order.

But am I buying? No, I'm not buying anymore, but I am riding this till Santa comes along. Oh, Santa... I've been such a good girl this year, so I'd like a happy shiny rally for Christmas...



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