When You Know You Deserve An A...

... and you get a B, it really hurts. So I've got some bittersweet symphony going on at work. I got QU promoted with a happy shiny new title, but I decided not to stay on for another year at the +50% salary increase because it didn't fully reflect my trading ego and what I think I'm worth. My estimation is that I'm worth a lot more and now I'm going to find out how much more. I'm staying in Belgium until at least the end of the year. Where will life take me next? Will I find another job? Will I trade for a living? Will I regret I took a life-altering decision based on my QU feelings?

Some of my favourite Professors of Finance gave me a relatively good report card:

+1.36% on the SBA
-0.02% on the Roth IRA

Even on my small account, if I get a +1.36% increase consistently, I won't have to starve. But if I can't respect myself, then what's the point of any of it? It kills me to think that I at one point considered staying at my job after that ridiculous accountant accused me of being legal but unethical for only a +50% salary increase. It would be even more ridiculous to continue after all my previous demotions, so keep me in your prayers when you go in the Confessional Booth, HSFTs...

Don't let anyone tell you you're a B when you're an A...

In the Confessional Booth, Volume 271010

This edition of Confessional Booth with ForexDiva isn't going to be as juicy as it usually is. I'm trying not to give myself a hard time with my recent CENX sell. The thing is I got out of the trade due to an emotional situation and not based on any fundamental or technical reasoning. There's now a head and shoulders formation on the 3-month timeframe. The question is will it get back to $10 or $11 again? $11 looks more likely, but it could just as well break to the topside since many head and shoulders patterns fail - at least when it comes to forex. I'm now going to observe this H&S on CENX to see if the prevalence of H&S failures also exists in the equities market. Options chains analysis on CENX also points to the $10 or $11 level as critical levels. So perhaps I shouldn't have to regret that I sold.

But what happened to BAC today? It managed another +2.12% move up. I'm looking for some more opportunities to buy up the highly undervalued financial sector. It all depends on whether I stay in Belgium or not. Yes, I'm still negotiating!

-0.66% on the SBA
+0.32% on the Roth IRA

BAC is now in my SBA. Yet, due to how small that position is, even with the nice move up, it doesn't make a huge difference to the bottom line.

I now realise how much I need to risk and how much I need to potentially make in order to get a good ROI. Once you identify some price levels you're comfortable with, you can basically identify several different stocks trading in that range and just get into one or two positions at precisely the right moment. That gives you a consistent trading system that's slightly less emotional and much more profitable.

For instance, if you like stocks ranging from $10 to $12 and just look at only those price levels and find investment opportunities that match a potential gain of 25 to 50%, you've got a predefined risk:reward profile that's already built into your trading system.

So This Is Why I Didn't Get Into Columbia...

Why didn't anyone tell me I was misusing the word relentless? I keep saying unrelentless... It's my very own George W. Bush style semi-Republican blunder. Anyway, now I know why I didn't get into Columbia! But did somebody downgrade LEHMQ or something? LOL. It's hitting levels very close to its 52WL now, so since I'm still in that position from March 2010, when I missed out on a very big gain because I got greedy, I'm going to quote unquote average in with a tiny amount of cash in hope of some bigger gains. Let's see how that one works out. I want to be positioned in such a way that I'll be in for some upside when Lehman finally gets out of bankruptcy.

BAC moved up +1.25% today - nothing major... but here's my blah on it.

It doesn't take GWB to see that we closed the day at very critical levels today:



NASDAQ... 2497.29 (obviously very close to 2500)
DJIA... 11169.46 (obviously above 11,100 and holding)
S&P 500... 1185.64 (obviously close to 1200 - the infamous Lehman Level)



So are we going to rip off the bandaid? Or did I buy another top?

Interestingly, I noticed there had been some positive correlation between S&P 500 and BAC on the one year timeframe. However, lately, there has been a disconnect - particularly since September 2010, when the S&P rallied +12.99% with no followthrough on BAC - not even when the CFO bought above $13. So we've got some jet lag going on with BAC which must be corrected. If you study the S&P chart, 1150 was a critical area of resistance, which we just broke through recently. 1150 has to hold in order for more upwards momentum to occur. This is setting up to be another gold-diggin' Andrews Pitchfork it seems. Check this out...



S&P 500 One Year (notice the honeygreen trendline, which would be the median line on the Andrews Pitchfork)








BAC One Year (notice the previous positive correlation and now the negative correlation with S&P 500)

Isn't that beautiful? My portfolio wasn't that beautiful today though. Even though I added BAC, it was still:



-0.76% on the SBA
-0.46% on the Roth IRA



Poor CENX reported third quarter losses of $16.8 million, missing by about $0.23 according to my E*Trade platform. So it turned out to be quote unquote luck that I sold it, although not at the intermediate top. But I want to buy back again and ride this one to $20. I must wait for the right moment... when it's practically screaming "touch my market bottom." It's getting pretty uncomfortable in Extended Hours Trading with CENX... -4.62% already!

We Want Her On Our Team!

Sorry I couldn't blah earlier. I had to spend some time brushing up my resume so that it could hopefully make a "We want her on our team!" impression on someone in the near future.

I haven't been doing enough homework lately. Usually, I like to spend the weekend researching my next trend, but what's the point when all I do is ride it on the way up and neglect to sell it on the way down? In a way, I am glad I took action by selling CENX even though it seems to be on its way up again. It was an emotional decision, but a real-life decision. So if you ever wonder why price happens, it's because of these emotional decisions occurring on a micro-managerial level.

As I've mentioned before, my focus is now on recovering with BAC and C and I've taken one extra step towards that goal today by getting into some more BAC. It's one of the three stocks starting with a B that I'd mentioned in my earlier post. I seem to have forgotten my trading discipline here as I recall wanting to buy only when S&P gets to 1000 again.

+1.58% on the SBA
+0.74% on the Roth IRA


My Should I Stay or Should I Go dilemma is still on. And what really gets to me is why I can't convince my boss that I am worth what I've asked for. It drives me insane, actually.

Should I Stay Or Should I Go?

I just bought BAC at $11.18 and am prepared for it to move a little more south to about $9.99 - at which point, I plan to buy a little more. That is, if I don't decide to suddenly close this chapter of my life and start a new one.

After having spoken to my boss today, I received an indication that this was the maximum that my salary can go. By anyone's standards, it would be a good salary. I do get to save quite a sum of money with my new salary structure. It's not about survival, but about trading ego. However, the question that continually pops up is... am I getting the shorter end of the stick? It seems like quite a number of people got a salary increase this year at my company and in comparison, my salary increase seems to be less substantial.

I learned the saying "The trend is your friend..." from my BFF forex broker. I learned the latter part of that saying "... until the end" the hard way this year when I: (1) tried to ride the GOL's momentum for too long back in May; (2) tried to ride Sultan BCS's trend past the +25% mark right after that; (3) tried to do more than +40% with CENX about a week or two back.

So... it leads me to the question... is my job a trend that's about to end?

I need some objective, honeygreen money making machine's opinion and unfortunately, everyone who I've spoken to thinks that this is a good salary increase. I put together all this objective evidence supporting my claim that I will still be underpaid if I get this high double digit salary increase based on the number of high salary jobs out there, the salaries of people in similar positions in competing companies, etc. Something doesn't feel right even though it seems like I went from needy to greedy with my salary negotiation. So if anyone is reading my blog and has a good idea, post a comment here! I'm all confused...

Well, I'm Still Here...

I had a discussion with my boss today after I sent him a resignation letter by email. I know that wasn't the best approach and definitely worse than breaking up with someone by text messaging - or on Facebook. But I was definitely very angry. So, we had a meeting today and as we both did not see eye to eye on my salary, we decided to go our separate ways. Then, like a movie scene, my boss' son decided to enter the discussion. I was offered a big salary increase, but I do not know if it's big enough. The main thing is I love my job and was offered the opportunity to devote part of my time to a high growth market. In terms of career development, that's very compelling. In terms of appreciation, I think the salary increase is a step in the right direction.

In terms of trading ego? You know I've got a big one. And the question now is... is my salary bigger than my trading ego yet? I have a salary in mind and I will defend the logic behind it with another one of my presentations.

I have the weekend to decide and honestly, if I don't stay in Belgium, I don't know where I'll go. Will I move to London or is that still a few years away?

It takes a woman with a lot of pluck to quit her job in the middle of the worst crisis our generation has known. My boss obviously appreciated me since he did not accept my resignation on the spot and his son decided to spend a very long time in a discussion with me. This year was definitely a test of character for me. In some instances, I've failed. In other instances, I discovered who I am as an international woman of mystery.

I won't be doing anything too experimental with my trading until I decide what to do. But to my embarrassment, it seems everyone somehow found out about the incident in the meantime.

+1.21% on the SBA
+0.14% on the Roth IRA

Have a good weekend, HSFTs! And thanks for taking this journey with me. I'm dying for the day I can ride your trend again...

I Felt Used & Abused & I Blew A Fuse...

My trading session today was short and fraught with emotion. I did one quick sell of CENX, which I vowed not to sell below my target price of $14-16. But when life happens, you've got to take action and life happened today. I even nearly sold my beloved Harry Winston, but decided not to do it just yet.

I had a career emergency and decided to step on the brakes with CENX at $12.98 for only at 26.63% gain on a position that was nothing to begin with just so that I can have some flexibility with my cash if necessary. I am at a crossroads and not sure what to do. It's one of those... do I stay or do I go situations and this time, only one thing matters: moola and lots of it in the strongest, most desirable, alpha currency I know of.

I've tried the pour your heart and soul into your work and be a team player but get no respect, no appreciation, and no moola route and now I'm going to try something new. As my cousin likes to say, If you want something you’ve never had, you must do something you’ve never done.

Anyway, this may be my final post if I have to quote unquote move on.

I wish I had a better report card, but have only got:

-0.36% on the SBA
-0.01% on the Roth IRA

I really wish I could have waited until 26 October 2010 for the earnings announcement. And given the news on China's buoyant economy, I might have missed out on a potentially good leg higher with CENX. But risk aversion can suddenly hit from out of the blue.

When You Don't Have Selling Discipline...

... you've got to have some buying discipline. And that has saved me so many times this year. But I've got the collector's predicament and that's scarier than some of the costumes you might be seeing this Halloween. I'm trying to be a little bit more philosophical, although it probably doesn't sound it. I reckon trading is a lot like cooking. You cook so you can have a meal. You trade so you can get some profits. Sometimes, you end up with a half-decent sandwich. Other times, you end up with pure decadence - such as my scallops grilled in truffle oil. But you've got to actually wok things the right way - and that involves timing. If you only cook the scallops for thirty seconds, you end up with sushi. So the main ingredient missing from my trading? Disciplined selling. I'm over-cooking my trades.

CENX gave the bears a run for their money today, moving up +3.56%. I'm still going to force myself to sell at my target price by moving my stops. I'll let CENX take me for a bit of a ride then. And if it stops me out, then I won't cry - or try not to anyway. But you all know now that I hold a grudge - especially when it comes to trading. Right, Ministers of Finance who sold me at 1.54? If I get stopped out and CENX one day bounces back to pre-crisis levels, I can't look back like I'm now doing with KO, thinking I missed out on about $10 per share by not waiting.

My next step in portfolio recovery: focusing on breaking even with BAC and C by either offsetting the losses with other positions or averaging in at infomercial levels. I want those high double digit losses in my SBA to become high double digit gains in the near future.

Report Card:

+1.60% on the SBA
+1.40% on the Roth IRA

Mathematically speaking, I have confirmed that a -3% loss is much more painful than a +3% gain is delightful.

For instance... on a $10,000 account, you gain 3% the first day, lose 3% the second day, and gain 3% the third day. It would work out to be a $300 gain the first day, $309 loss the second day, and $299.73 gain the third day. So, taking that loss not only knocks the wind out of your sail, but it also decreases your bottom line.

And I Didn't Even Get To Wake the Neighbours Yet...

But it's true that CENX might have run of out stamina - at least for the time being. It had a very quick -7.38% descent today, so I apologise for calling the idiot who tried to sell 17,000 shares on Friday an idiot. If I had not tried to sell in the meanwhile, I would have lost all respect for myself. Still, I put in too crazy of a price yesterday in the Extended Hours Trading session.

The earlier optimism in China is now temporarily done due to today's rate hike, but we've still got one more chance at romance on 26 October 2010. This is when all of the earlier optimism on China will show up on CENX's balance sheet - or not. Given AA's performance earlier on in the month, CENX should follow suit. Then, there's a third time's the charm possibility of China's rate hike being insufficient in taming economic growth that basically now has a life of its own. This may or may not become evident in future quarters, but the future is anyone's guess. I've still got a bullish bias and today's market doesn't change that.

My strategy: I'm trying the crazy price strategy again in Extended Hours till Earnings Announcement Time. I've decided that I'm going to sell, but I'm going to sell on my terms, which means the $14-16 range I've been eyeing since basically Day One. If I don't get to sell before Earnings Announcement, I'll exercise some patience and basically no trading discipline and then decide what to do. Wish me luck! In a downtrend, the bulls don't get much of a say in dictating prices, but we haven't come this far to find that CENX doesn't want to go for a second round. And this may yet be the beginning of the end for the bears - if my theory on China is correct.

-4.79% on the SBA (oh, the pain...)
-2.18% on the Roth IRA


I don't want to go in the Confessional Booth, but I may have to before long - and quite possibly, for an extended period.

Today's Session Left Me Wondering...

... did CENX price climax without me? We are now trading firmly above the 50% retracement level between the 52WH and 52WL at about $13.46, but CENX seems to be running out of breath before $14. I'm still doing my crazy price strategy in Extended Hours Trading, so if you see any unusual pricing there, it might be me.

I did my own homework this weekend and have identified five different stocks that I could invest in. Three of them start with the letter B, so you can go do your own homework and fantasise about what they might be. They're all in the banking sector. I'm already heavily into financial stocks, so I don't mind getting a little arbitraged this time around - especially if you're going to buy up CitiFrog or Sultan BCS. This year, banks got battered and it's about time we see a good rally. Today's session saw a broad-based rally involving many stocks in the financial sector - and this may just be the beginning of the end for the bears.

Am I not always saying that? Well, I suppose so. But this time, it could just be different. S&P 500 is getting very close to the 1200 level. Recall that 1214 roundabouts was where S&P 500 closed the day immediately after Lehman. We were slightly above 1600 pre-Lehman and now, we’re almost at 1200, which was tested earlier in the year pre-Hung Parliament. So are we going to break above this level and rip off the bandaid already?

Psychologically, people don’t want to see this level yet because that’s like opening up an old wound again – especially for the people who sold the market bottoms. LOL. What? I bought the market tops so I can make fun of the bottom sellers! Seriously, though… I wonder if the bottom sellers got out of position yet?

So what's different this time around?

1. Lehman caused a break below 1200
2. If I'm not mistaken, it took us about 18 months after Lehman for a try above 1200 again. That failed due to European Debt Crisis fears.
3. Now, we've got Bernanke wanting to lift us out of the abyss with some more quantitative easing.

I think the case for a higher S&P 500 definitely has a lot more potential than the bearish story. Quantitative easing + healthier balance sheets of banks + healthier balance sheets of many large corporations… that makes for a compelling push higher.

Whilst housing and unemployment would ideally improve further to be supportive of a move higher, business confidence is already back. I believe that the recovery will continue to be led by companies that are able to take a proactive and innovative approach to business rather than consumers charging up their credit cards to buy more clutter this time around. Once business starts taking off again, consumers will follow. Both will hopefully be a lot more cautious, which isn't necessarily a bad thing.

People have been unemployed for a while and if they’ve managed to get on by for so long, then they’ll survive.

The question is how fast can the market move up without appearing insensitive? All the people on the news will be commenting on the financial hypocrisy if 1200 manages to hold. Maybe we need to move in a range for a while?

So, I’ll pay attention to what goes on now and if we hit the 1000 level again and my five stocks are at attractive levels then, I’ll buy some. Already, I’m seeing some interesting stocks trading near their 52WLs – near as in it could be conceivable that any move lower on key market indices could drive the stock of that stock lower and hit my “target buy levels.”

My trading legs don't part at every level, nor do they part for just any stock. Or, that's what I would like to think.

Anyway, that was a very big rant... And now, the part you've all been waiting for!

Report Card Time!

I jumped on the treasure trunk today...

+0.91% on the SBA
+3.05% on the Roth IRA


Let's see if I can have some forex now, but if I don't, there's always tomorrow!