Showing posts with label Bonds. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Bonds. Show all posts
Wednesday, June 16, 2010
Friday, June 11, 2010
Six Figures Over Night?
Things are getting exciting here at ForexDiva. I got home late today and opened my portfolio after the stock market closed.
I noticed I became six figures overnight due to my JBQ holdings. Cynical as I am, I thought it could very well be some wrong-button-pressin' computer glitch incident - and it most likely is. I put in orders to sell some of the bonds and got quoted with regular pricing, so declined to sell.
But how sweet it would be if this were my reality - six figures overnight. It's not real until we consummate the trade. And if there's a computer glitch to be taken advantage of, we get our Bwahaha HTELs out, throw caution to the wind, and attempt to sell! That is definitely not pure of heart, but if the order goes through, why shouldn't we take the six figures, right?
Back to reality... Right now, I'm still five figures, but I see the bankruptcy proceedings with the Lehman case painting a seemingly rosier picture. First, Lehman's suing JPM. Secondly, Lehman's auctioning its art collection. Finally, Lehman is planning to purchase some debt in valuable Park Avenue real estate that could have potential "significant upside." You've got my vote, Lehman!
This week, I was all I will sit out on the bench so I won't look like a wench with the GOL. This must be my worst line yet. LOL. I missed out on major pips! This leads me to believe that after getting really burned by the market, we will be inclined to being overly cautious, which in turn negatively affects our performance. Same thing happens when a rally starts making you feel that the forex market is our oyster and the TETSOB starts rearing its head and shoulders.
Yesterday:
+2.54% on the SBA
+2.51% on the Roth IRA
Today:
+0.21% on the SBA
-0.01% on the Roth IRA
Have a great weekend, BFF HSFTs!
Let's do some risk-takin', money-makin', chart-breakin' next week!
Oh, yes!
Wednesday, April 28, 2010
Hey Sweetchart...
On a much more serious note, I have been tracking bond yields for the past few weeks. I noticed that there hasn't been that much fluctuation.
I think that a sustainable push up in the equities market is only possible if we get:
1. an exodus from the bond market
2. an exodus from gold into oil
So, my question is... where has all the moola gone over the past few weeks?
It can't be into more bonds because bond market yields have no more downside potential, meaning bond prices can't get any higher. Short term bonds in the 3-month to 2 year range in all categories from CDs to Treasuries to Municipals are all yielding in the low single digits. The best yields so far seem to be 20 year Municipals A bonds, yielding 7.1%.
That is essentially investors saying that they would rather be in 20 year Municipals A bonds rather than being in what is perceived as higher risk assets such as equities. In my diva opinion, that's ludicrous. People would rather get 7.1% a year for 20 years in a Municipal bond rather than be invested in the stock market? Ironic + ridiculous given all the news on Greece and now Spain! There are still better bargains in the stock market than the bond market.
So, I looked at gold and gold is still stuck in a Bimbo Limbo of its very own. It's been ranging since January and even with all the boos surrounding the European Debt Dilemma, we haven't seen a new high yet.
What about our dear friend, Franc? Even Franc didn't strengthen much against the USD. Since the USD has been rallying, I think we can see some more upwards potential in the equities market even though the sky is falling - yet again.
I suspect a lot of cash is now off the table and it has to go somewhere. Where? In real estate?
Regardless, the real beneficiaries, of course, will be the FWFs on Capitol Hill.
Thursday, April 22, 2010
You Drive, I'll Ride?
The Guys of London have been swinging me around and I'm practically breathless and definitely confused. At best, I was up 30 pips on today's high. So do they love my prices or not? Please don't hurt me like that again. I'm financially fragile and vulnerable. And I need real action - fast and maybe a bit more intensely.
After paying more attention to economic data announcements, I've started noticing levels that tend to be in play whenever an announcement gets released. It makes me see price action from a different perspective. So, I'm starting to ponder why price action occurs in the fashion that it does.
The market is comprised of a fusion of different players. Some do air piano and others bring out the violin. Others are momentum players whilst some are contrarians. I think when I finally figure out these footprints in the sand, hiding behind a coral reef will become much easier.
My portfolio's sadder than me today...
-0.46% on the standard brokerage
-0.49% on the Roth IRA
Retirement... is that in the cards for me? My portfolio has recovered a lot, but I was expecting a lot more. I am watching bond yields every day.
I think another leg up can only occur if short term yields on CDs and corporate bonds start increasing. This would indicate an exodus from the bond market occurring, signifying increasing investor confidence. It's also possible that once tax refund cheques start arriving, we might see a bit more sizzle.
Bond yields are still ludicrously low according to me. The good news, perhaps, is that they bond yields really have not been decreasing at an accelerated pace, which tells me that any news on Greece, Gold-diggin' Sachs, Obama's War on Wall Street, et al, is not really being acted upon. The bond market can only really benefit from real fear in my diva opinion.
Sunday, February 28, 2010
Lehman: A Frog Turned Prince In the Making
There's a very fine line between love and hate. Back in the day, when AMD was sitting near its 52 WL for an exteded period, I hated it with every fiber of my being. Then, it all changed as the magic of high beta touched its soul and AMD turned from a frog into a prince. I had been in AMD for at least a year and a half - perhaps two. Then, over the course of a few months, it practically tripled in price and I got out at exactly the right moment. Fact! No need to downplay such an accomplishment especially when I was wrong for two years to begin with.
Now I get the feeling that my Lehman bonds will enjoy a similar fate one day. Lehman and JP Morgan have reached a deal for billions on claims. As part of the deal, Lehman will receive $9 billion worth of illiquid securities whilst JPM gets $557 million in cash and keeps $7.7 billion in collateral. This is fantabulous news for any Lehman bondholders. But I think it's also fantabulous news for JPM, which would have kept all of the most valuable assets, leaving the Lehman estate with the less valuable ones, since it is one of the smartest banks on the planet. This is the part that's unfair and let's hope that Lehman's lawyers are worth their weight in gold diggin'. The major bit of good news out of this deal is that the $29+ billion proof of claims that JP Morgan filed will be obliterated.
Either way, the market is in a different place now. The $9 billion worth of illiquid securities will have a better recovery rate now than it did in 2008/2009.
I have implemented a contingency plan for my Lehman bonds by paying up for a smaller position in a bond issue that is supposedly higher quality in an effort to recoup my investment should the sub bonds become worthless. However, I am fairly optimistic that there's going to be value left after the battle's over.
Initially, I started with a lot of sub bonds in Lehman. Recall I bought these bonds up starting from several weeks after Lehman filed for Chapter 11 through to about the present moment. Looking back, I made a fatal mistake by not buying higher quality bond issues because my knowledge was limited. I only purchased sub bonds in 2008, but the market was flooded with all types of Lehman bonds and I could have probably paid the same amount for a higher quality issue had I known about it.
I promised to post my bond ladder here, so here goes...
5249087M6
524908UB4
524908UB4
524908R44
524908R36
524908R44
524908R36
524908BF6
52517PNZ0
Junk bonds are not all fun in the sun, though. Recently, my Ion Media bond issue got obliterated in the reorganisation process. Figuring out the details that make a bond issue work vs. just blindly buying based on the premise/promise of value is the fundamental diva dilemma. Is there really value here? Based on my previous conservative estimate, if Lehman is able to collect all its receivables, then bondholder value is $0.35 on the dollar. So, for me, any higher quality issue that can be obtained for $0.25 on the dollar or below would be a good buy. I have to consciously limit my investment. I don't want to go too OTT and get over-excited about this and get left with half a carrot.
Tuesday, February 9, 2010
Why Isn't It Hotter?
I'm not going to say that my portfolio was smokin' hot today! All throughout the session, I was wondering to myself why MS didn't rise even more. My Roth IRA consequently lagged behind the overall market.
+2.04% on the standard brokerage account...
+0.95% on the Roth IRA...
Harry contributed to the amazing results, but it was really NYX with a +5.11% move that saved today. I got an inferiority complex looking at some other companies with double digit gains for the day, though.
On the JBQ front, I'm still worrying about whether the Lehman bond issues I bought are the right ones. There hasn't been much progress really with my JBQ strategy. Out of all my junk bonds, I expect Finlay to be the first company to emerge from Chapter 11 and begin to distribute money from its estate - possibly as early as August 2010, but it could be February 2011 or later as well. Still, I think Finlay will be faster than Lehman.
Tomorrow will hopefully be smokin' hotter!
+2.04% on the standard brokerage account...
+0.95% on the Roth IRA...
Harry contributed to the amazing results, but it was really NYX with a +5.11% move that saved today. I got an inferiority complex looking at some other companies with double digit gains for the day, though.
On the JBQ front, I'm still worrying about whether the Lehman bond issues I bought are the right ones. There hasn't been much progress really with my JBQ strategy. Out of all my junk bonds, I expect Finlay to be the first company to emerge from Chapter 11 and begin to distribute money from its estate - possibly as early as August 2010, but it could be February 2011 or later as well. Still, I think Finlay will be faster than Lehman.
Tomorrow will hopefully be smokin' hotter!
Thursday, December 31, 2009
ForexDiva's 2010 New Year's Trading Resolutions!
Ah, a New Year waiting to happen!
In 2009, I had some hits and misses. I suppose more misses than hits, but amongst my biggest misses were:
1. not trading my Shut Up & Trade strategy
2. choosing NYX instead of TIF
3. Citi Frog
4. CPB... thought it could test $41, but has become more like the Little Engine That Couldn't
5. OMG, ABK! Bonds and shares... double band-aid.
Some of my 2009 One-Hit Wonders:
1. AMD... that was a good one. Luck and averaging in at the right time apparently played a key role in this. I thought it would test $10 by EOY 2009 and it did, but it's not due to any remarkable brilliance on my part, I've got to admit.
2. HWD, the High Beta Alpha Male gem that gives my portfolio meaning.
3. ED
Stuff from 2009 That Could Make My Portfolio Six Figures+ Waiting To Happen In 2010... or 2011?
1. Citi Frog
2. BAC
3. HWD
4. JBQ Strategy (Good Six Figure Face Value Awaiting Recovery)
5. And will hopefully make some more progress with my forex trading.
And looking forward to 2010, my New Year's Trading Resolutions:
1. My ulterior motive: profits, profits, profits (I could go on and on, but then I'd bore people even more...)
2. ATAA (All Talk All Action)
3. Chase profits, but not prices.
4. Learn to think for myself, but at the same time listen to the right people. Ultimately, though, if we have to blame someone, blame only yourself.
5. Turn many three or four figure positions into five figures + consistently and the majority of the time. This is the only way to make real money in the markets.
6. Play the right role at the right time... Miss Equities 2010, HRH JBQ, ForexDiva, DiamondDiva, some lucky guy's Agent Provocateur Dream Come True. In other words, be in the right market at the right time.
7. Discover some more frogs that are just about to turn into princes. Undervalued and overlooked is what we're looking for.
8. Some more smokin' hot trading strategies, please!
Thursday, December 10, 2009
Yes! Finally, It Has Happened To Me!
Finally, after weeks of ATNA, I finally did something productive. I was so inspired by my recent idea to exchange my ABK super junk bonds for Finlay defunct bonds that I made another similar move today. I exchanged my beloved Neiman Marcus bonds for some more BAC shares.
I've been lamenting my BAC semi-profit-taking for a while. And since I finally had a ForexDiva mini success story with my Neiman Marcus bonds, I decided to rebalance my portfolio again.
This is the way junk bond trading should always be. However, it's never happened to me before and now that it has, I can't wait for it to happen again.
At the onset, I was expecting a profit of four figures from my Neiman Marcus bond trade by 2015. That is a long time to wait for a small profit now that I think about it. However, it made sense from a risk:reward point of view then. At the time I made the trade, this bond was trading at about $0.4352 on the dollar. It has since risen to $0.96 on the dollar. Due to the lack of liquidity in the corporate bond market, though, I got filled at about $0.93 on the dollar. Still quite good, if I must say so myself. This gets me so excited!
Anyway, I had estimated that approximately half of my profits would be attributed to coupon interest and the other half would be from the principal by the time 2015 rolled around.
It has now already reached about half my profit objective. Whilst I could wait around for 2015, I thought adding to BAC at this time could potentially yield greater profits more quickly than waiting for Neiman.
I really hope I made the right choice! In any case, it was a fun trade.
I made four figures on this trade. Am I grinning from ear to ear or what?
I've been lamenting my BAC semi-profit-taking for a while. And since I finally had a ForexDiva mini success story with my Neiman Marcus bonds, I decided to rebalance my portfolio again.
This is the way junk bond trading should always be. However, it's never happened to me before and now that it has, I can't wait for it to happen again.
At the onset, I was expecting a profit of four figures from my Neiman Marcus bond trade by 2015. That is a long time to wait for a small profit now that I think about it. However, it made sense from a risk:reward point of view then. At the time I made the trade, this bond was trading at about $0.4352 on the dollar. It has since risen to $0.96 on the dollar. Due to the lack of liquidity in the corporate bond market, though, I got filled at about $0.93 on the dollar. Still quite good, if I must say so myself. This gets me so excited!
Anyway, I had estimated that approximately half of my profits would be attributed to coupon interest and the other half would be from the principal by the time 2015 rolled around.
It has now already reached about half my profit objective. Whilst I could wait around for 2015, I thought adding to BAC at this time could potentially yield greater profits more quickly than waiting for Neiman.
I really hope I made the right choice! In any case, it was a fun trade.
I made four figures on this trade. Am I grinning from ear to ear or what?
Thursday, December 3, 2009
Oh My Lord! LOL...
This is one of those days I love high beta!
AMD is +10.27% so far and I feel like I'll be laughing all the way to the bank. Just a little bit more and I'm breakeven on this position - something I never thought would happen in my lifetime. I've been holding onto this position since February 2007. I now have to think about how to trail my stop.
My question is why isn't C moving at all?
I'm still indecisive with regard to my ABK position... I was thinking of cashing out on my ABK shares and then getting into some more Finlay bonds, but S & P upgraded Ambac Assurance. I was so ticked off - a day after I sold my ABK bonds, mind you. Good thing I didn't get out of both shares and bonds at once. Whatever! They've been saying that they can't pay dividends on that bond issue due to regulatory reasons, so I'm into Finlay bonds now.
But I've finally got a position where I'm +213.64% and that is a small position in Tribune Co. bonds (CUSIP 896047AF4).
Is this bliss? Not quite, but at least I'm bitter no more.
AMD is +10.27% so far and I feel like I'll be laughing all the way to the bank. Just a little bit more and I'm breakeven on this position - something I never thought would happen in my lifetime. I've been holding onto this position since February 2007. I now have to think about how to trail my stop.
My question is why isn't C moving at all?
I'm still indecisive with regard to my ABK position... I was thinking of cashing out on my ABK shares and then getting into some more Finlay bonds, but S & P upgraded Ambac Assurance. I was so ticked off - a day after I sold my ABK bonds, mind you. Good thing I didn't get out of both shares and bonds at once. Whatever! They've been saying that they can't pay dividends on that bond issue due to regulatory reasons, so I'm into Finlay bonds now.
But I've finally got a position where I'm +213.64% and that is a small position in Tribune Co. bonds (CUSIP 896047AF4).
Is this bliss? Not quite, but at least I'm bitter no more.
Friday, November 20, 2009
More Thoughts On Ambac...
My portfolio was down -0.77% today, but since I was in a better mood, it didn't affect me that much. Yesterday, I was feeling bitter and +1.68% wasn't even good enough.
Anyway, more thoughts on our prince turned frog, ABK!
I've been researching possible reasons to declare a technical default, but so far have a lack of evidence.
If this was based on morals alone, I'd have tons of moral evidence against ABK, including a clearly two-faced approach to doing business:
Ambac Misses Interest Payment On $400 Million Bond Issue (circa 15 August 2009)... this was only a $12.3 million payment on the entire bond issue.
Ambac Financial Posts $2.2 billion Profit
Ambac Issues Going Concern Statement One Week Following $2.2 billion Profit
Ambac Misstates Financials To Meet Minimums
Ambac Financial Misses Regulatory Filing
Not having studied law is a bit of an impediment, but I am quite sure I will no longer invest in subordinated bonds after seeing this article about Bradford & Bingley, a company in the UK that deferred interest payments and got away with no technical default.
I'm not even sure if ABK was one of those financial institutions that received TARP money, but ABK keep mentioning that their financial regulators are prohibiting them from paying dividends to the holding company. So is it better to hold bonds in the holding company or the subsidiary? I'm still figuring this out.
Whilst I'm at it, I would go so far to say that the whole bailout was premeditated. Apparently, Congress is 'teeming with millionaires.' Fair weather friends, indeed!
Monday, November 16, 2009
What Is Going On with WaMu?
I've been staring at this all weekend and I still can't figure out whether it's good news or bad news for WaMu Bank bondholders? When are we getting anything back? And will they completely obliterate subordinate bondholders? That is so premeditated it isn't even funny.
The $1.9 billion seems to be from the sale to JPM.
Remember that legally, there's a difference between Washington Mutual Inc. and Washington Mutual Bank bonds, so be careful about what you buy.
The $1.9 billion seems to be from the sale to JPM.
Remember that legally, there's a difference between Washington Mutual Inc. and Washington Mutual Bank bonds, so be careful about what you buy.
Tuesday, November 10, 2009
Triple Whammy?
My portfolio got hit with a triple whammy today. First, it was -1.68% and even Harry Winston disappointed. Then, my BAC-to-$16-nightmare became reality and then some. I know I'm still technically benefitting from this since I've still got two other lots of BAC, but it somehow still feels like I've lost money from my recent sale of BAC. (Yes, that's how big my trading ego is). To top it off, ABK took the courtesy to warn everyone that it may file for bankruptcy.
In my experience, it will usually take several months before anything concrete occurs, but my hope is that the bandaid ripping will occur much sooner. This could be a special case with all the financial regulators involved. Nonetheless, it's financial hypocrisy at its best. How can ABK announce a $2.2 billion profit one week and then cry wolf the next?
Looking back on previous companies that have filed for bankruptcy...
1. Metaldyne did a tender offer before it finally succumbed to bandaid ripping.
2. Finlay tried buying time with a debt exchange offer with its vendors several months prior to ROTB (ripping off the bandaid).
Is ABK rolling over and playing dead?
I had a feeling it was only a matter of time, but I'd like to know what's happening to that $2.2 billion profit? Bonus time!
In my experience, it will usually take several months before anything concrete occurs, but my hope is that the bandaid ripping will occur much sooner. This could be a special case with all the financial regulators involved. Nonetheless, it's financial hypocrisy at its best. How can ABK announce a $2.2 billion profit one week and then cry wolf the next?
Looking back on previous companies that have filed for bankruptcy...
1. Metaldyne did a tender offer before it finally succumbed to bandaid ripping.
2. Finlay tried buying time with a debt exchange offer with its vendors several months prior to ROTB (ripping off the bandaid).
Is ABK rolling over and playing dead?
I had a feeling it was only a matter of time, but I'd like to know what's happening to that $2.2 billion profit? Bonus time!
Monday, October 19, 2009
Ion Media: When Junk = Junk
It seems like I've been missing out on a lot of news lately. Apparently, Ion Media issued its joint plan of reorganisation in relation to its Chapter 11 bankruptcy filing back in August. Where was I all this time? Correct answer: Bimbo Land.
Anyway, it does not look good for low priority bondholders of CUSIP 46205AAB9, such as myself.
Basically, they are proposing the following:
Class 1 Creditors will more or less receive the full amount of their claims in cash (page 22).
Class 2 Creditors will have the $150 million debt that Ion Media owes them exchanged for 62.5% of new equity in the reorganised Ion Media. This seems like a good deal for them in my opinion when you consider what the rest of the lower priority creditors get. Class 4 and Class 5 Creditors are funding this entire reorganisation (see below).
Class 3 Creditors receive a 37.5% share of equity.
Class 4 Creditors will receive warrants to purchase 5% of new common stock for $1 billion. If I did the math correctly, this means that anyone who exercises these warrants is effectively paying for the company as if it is worth $20 billion.
Class 5 Creditors will receive warrants to purchase 5% of new common stoc for $1.5 billion. Here, we are paying for the company as if it is worth $30 billion. LOL.
And according to Ion's own Web site, "all outstanding ION equity interests, including common stock, preferred stock and any options, warrants or rights to acquire any equity interests, will be cancelled and extinguished and holders thereof will not receive a distribution."
This is worse than my GBP/JPY trade from Friday!
Unless, for some odd reason Ion's new stock skyrockets and its market cap exceeds $30 billion. I wonder how old I'll be when that happens?
Thursday, October 15, 2009
More Drama with Lehman?
I found out late, but this could potentially be good for Lehman bondholders... According to my calculations, the $46.2 billion that the Fed collected ahead of the bankruptcy filing could add another $0.38 on the dollar to Lehman's recovery value - for bondholders, that is.
The Fed should definitely get back in line with other creditors!!
Wednesday, September 30, 2009
Financial Dignity
I try not to think about it too often, but every once in a while, what the arrogant, pompous, rude super alpha male told me at the Las Vegas expo starts playing in my head - and not to the beat of a Coldplay song. Perhaps I should go apologise to him. Maybe he's actually got a point and I should put my trading ego aside and learn from his scalping techniques.
It hurts to be poor. If I'm not begging my banks for a lower interest rate or an unbeatable balance transfer offer, I'm being treated like I'm some sub-par junk bond by E*Trade. It has been at least three years of this, plus all the visits to my most hated place on earth - the Bursar's office, years before.
Money has been an issue for me ever since I could remember. And lately, I've been overspending again. It's like I have some sort of financial death wish.
I really hope that when I finally become financially free, I'll also finally have a bit of financial dignity. I have a small account. But does it mean I have to be treated small?
Once in a while, I get a small glimpse of sunshine. It actually feels like I'm making a quantum leap because I know one day my junk bonds will end up paying off - maybe for more than I expected or maybe for less than I expected. I will continue to trade equities and forex, but they are almost on the back burner.
Less emotional volatility = more objectivity
Sunday, September 27, 2009
Retirement & IRAs...
Ever since I officially got Age 30 stamped on my forehead, I've been feeling a lot more pressure with regard to establishing and developing my financial security. Considering that I'd like to go for the Early Retirement option as well, I now have at least 70 years of financial responsibility on my shoulders due to the need to reverse 30 years of fiscal irresponsibility as well as 40 years of retirement income to be built up. That's a lot to achieve in a very short amount of time.
Whilst I look forward to the day that I will no longer be able to contribute to my Roth IRA as that would mean that my salary has skyrocketed, I am still taking every advantage of it whilst the option is still available to me. And why shouldn't I? It's obviously got a lot of perks.
Looking back, I've committed some IRA mistakes I wish I hadn't made, including:
1. starting too late. I was only able to contribute to tax years 2007, 2008, and 2009 so far. I should have done it sooner.
2. imperfect asset allocation. In hindsight, I should have allocated more Roth IRA funds to low beta / high dividend stocks. Additionally, I should have placed some of my bond purchases in my Roth IRA rather than my regular brokerage account. In the future, when I perfect my forex trading strategy, I might also consider allocating a good amount of capital to a Roth IRA forex account.
3. not trading enough. I am a firm believer that the buy and hold strategy should not be applicable to an IRA account. Even with a low beta / high dividend strategy, I believe there are times when it makes total sense to rebalance the portfolio by cashing in on some investments and waiting for another buy opportunity.
4. not including CDs, Municipal Bonds, and Treasuries in my asset allocation. Though the yields are usually lower on CDs, Municipal Bonds, and Treasuries, due to the tax benefits, these asset classes could make a lot of sense in a Roth IRA at certain points in time. However, current fixed income yields at this point aren't at the irresistible levels they once were earlier on in the year. We're now looking at less than 7% yields on long term bonds, which to me isn't sufficient ROI - especially on corporate bonds, considering the higher default risks.
5. placing a junk bond in a Roth IRA. When I first started out in junk bond investing, I thought I did the right thing by placing Ambac bonds in my Roth IRA. Whilst I was able to collect some tax-free interest on this bond, due to Ambac's failure to pay interest on this bond issue, the cash is now not only idle, but I wouldn't be able to write it off as a loss and take a tax deduction on it. This is because it is much more difficult to take tax deductions on IRA accounts.
It might be wishful thinking, but I wish the government would get rid of social security for Gen X & Y and just enable us to contribute unlimited amounts of money to our Roth IRAs.
Thursday, September 24, 2009
I'm Still Shivering...
...from the freezing cold water Harry Winston decided to splash on me today. -8.81% today... now that's high beta. Good thing I don't wear mascara! The cold water did help to placate my raging internal inferno though.
Overall, my portfolio was down -2.88%.
For anyone else following the Finlay bandaid ripping saga, Gordon Brothers Retail Partners LLC has won yesterday's auction of Finlay assets. The final court approval hearing will take place tomorrow, 25 September 2009. If the approval goes through, then the transaction is expected to be completed on or before 28 February 2010.
No details on the offer price of the winning bid were released, but according to JCK Online, the winning bid represented about 85.75% of asset inventory - approximately $116 million.
The whole thing, to me, is still extremely unfair. I hope other bidders step in tomorrow with some higher bids. Otherwise, Finlay bondholders and suppliers are clearly getting ripped off.
Interestingly, with the winning bid valued at $116 million, this is more than enough to cover the Senior Notes that Finlay had issued (page 51), which had a value of $40 million as of 31 January 2009. I therefore tried to buy more Senior Notes, but found someone faster than me had snatched them up already.
Could I be happily looking at a full recovery on my Finlay bonds in the near future?
That would sure beat my current status of nursing equity positions by placing bandaids on broken ankles.
Oh, but a full recovery would be a dream come true!
Overall, my portfolio was down -2.88%.
For anyone else following the Finlay bandaid ripping saga, Gordon Brothers Retail Partners LLC has won yesterday's auction of Finlay assets. The final court approval hearing will take place tomorrow, 25 September 2009. If the approval goes through, then the transaction is expected to be completed on or before 28 February 2010.
No details on the offer price of the winning bid were released, but according to JCK Online, the winning bid represented about 85.75% of asset inventory - approximately $116 million.
The whole thing, to me, is still extremely unfair. I hope other bidders step in tomorrow with some higher bids. Otherwise, Finlay bondholders and suppliers are clearly getting ripped off.
Interestingly, with the winning bid valued at $116 million, this is more than enough to cover the Senior Notes that Finlay had issued (page 51), which had a value of $40 million as of 31 January 2009. I therefore tried to buy more Senior Notes, but found someone faster than me had snatched them up already.
Could I be happily looking at a full recovery on my Finlay bonds in the near future?
That would sure beat my current status of nursing equity positions by placing bandaids on broken ankles.
Oh, but a full recovery would be a dream come true!
Monday, September 21, 2009
Bread & Butter
I'm actually a much worse tourist than I am a trader. Surprising, I know, but one could probably figure that out since I'd been to Paris more than once and never actually saw the Eiffel Tower. Likewise with Taipei 101. That one should be more shocking as it's a mall.
Anyway, I forgot to bring my camera to the Coldplay concert. That's like forgetting to bring your brain to a trading session. Do I even have one?
Before I get accused of digressing too much, I have some ideas about trading I want to brainstorm on.
I've been thinking that people require a sort of Bread & Butter type trade. Every successful business has a Bread & Butter type product or service. Every successful trader therefore requires a Bread & Butter type strategy. Lately, Little Black Dress and Little Red Dress have both been MIA. Good Harry Winston had been carrying my portfolio all week last week, but today I feel like he's loved me and left me... -2.94% so far!
I don't know why I've been so lost lately. The two sparks I've had lately related to trading are:
1. have multiple contingency plans by diversifying according to asset class, market sectors, and perhaps more importantly, volatility. For stocks, this would include beta diversification. I would argue this is even more critical than sector diversification.
2. move your money from one asset class into the next.
Perhaps it isn't much of a spark, but I was definitely happy to see this report that Bank of America and Merrill Lynch see the level of junk bond defaults reaching 40% by 2013.
Am I actually on the right track here? Maybe?! Time will tell.
I hope I'm on the right track with the positioning of my junk bond holdings though as that will attribute to my success rate with these bonds.
One woman's junk is another woman's Harry Winston, I guess...
Anyway, I forgot to bring my camera to the Coldplay concert. That's like forgetting to bring your brain to a trading session. Do I even have one?
Before I get accused of digressing too much, I have some ideas about trading I want to brainstorm on.
I've been thinking that people require a sort of Bread & Butter type trade. Every successful business has a Bread & Butter type product or service. Every successful trader therefore requires a Bread & Butter type strategy. Lately, Little Black Dress and Little Red Dress have both been MIA. Good Harry Winston had been carrying my portfolio all week last week, but today I feel like he's loved me and left me... -2.94% so far!
I don't know why I've been so lost lately. The two sparks I've had lately related to trading are:
1. have multiple contingency plans by diversifying according to asset class, market sectors, and perhaps more importantly, volatility. For stocks, this would include beta diversification. I would argue this is even more critical than sector diversification.
2. move your money from one asset class into the next.
Perhaps it isn't much of a spark, but I was definitely happy to see this report that Bank of America and Merrill Lynch see the level of junk bond defaults reaching 40% by 2013.
Am I actually on the right track here? Maybe?! Time will tell.
I hope I'm on the right track with the positioning of my junk bond holdings though as that will attribute to my success rate with these bonds.
One woman's junk is another woman's Harry Winston, I guess...
Wednesday, September 16, 2009
-21% For The Next Two Years?
Since I became a BondDiva, I've come to the realisation that even if my entire equities portfolio breaks even, I will still have to count on being at least -21% for the next year to two years.
The cash I've invested in bonds will be locked in for at least this amount of time.
I've been trying to keep a level head with regard to too much daydreaming about recovering the full face value on these bonds. After all, there's a very fine line between hope and disappointment.
Still, as evil as it sounds, I'm kind of hoping that the market will still be ripe for junk bond investing over the next few years. If all goes according to plan, this could be the dramatic entrance I've always dreamed about!
My name in bright lights and everything!
This is six figures if we're talking best case scenario. And if the market continues as it is and I'm able to acquire more junk bonds at my ideal price, it'll be at least seven.
Just a little bit of waiting, that's all.
Junk Bond Queen status may not be so bimbo after all! How does HRH JBQ sound?
But this -21% for the next two years... it'll be one of those grin and bear it situations.
I just have to keep telling myself the longer term is what matters.
Tuesday, September 15, 2009
Should I Be Laughing?
I mean now that the market value of some of my positions are finally higher than my unrealised losses, should I be jumping for joy? And since when did my happiness become correlated with the direction of my portfolio?
There's just one position where I'm still in a very precarious position and that is C, which is nearly -9% today! How did it manage that?
And here come the Republicans crying out for the bankruptcy process to be expedited.
I'm not sure I agree... sometimes I feel bondholders actually will recover greater value from a prolonged bankruptcy process, especially where retailers are concerned. I would rather wait a bit longer if we can recover significantly more value. However, the bankruptcy application itself should not be prolonged, but expedited as this will ensure that the company does not take on any further liabilities and operating losses.
I haven't actually done any forex trades lately, so perhaps I need to change my name to... BondDiva? Has a bit of a ring to it, doesn't it?
On another note, I think I'm more nervous about the upcoming Coldplay concert than Coldplay themselves. I think all of London will be there - well, about 90,000 guests to be precise. This would be my second Coldplay concert in London. I'm quite excited, actually.
Sadly, I will be saying goodbye to a colleague on the same day. He recently passed away and the funeral is on the same day. He was the first person I met here in Belgium - such a strong, kind-hearted man who lived to be 78. He survived a heart attack and was exactly the type of person who the doctor said would have another two years to live, but ended up living another four instead.
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