I Woke the Neighbours Today...

... but not because of my trading, but that may change in the near future. Skip my JNSB and read on for a potentially beautiful new trade in the making.

Unfortunately, I had a bit of an incident (I love how the British call everything an incident) involving an overactive water heater located under the kitchen sink, which resulted in a major flood of epic proportions.

In any case, everything in my kitchen and living room got drenched. But I learned something about trading from this.

My portfolio has been flooded, but I still love(?) trading. Do I want to stand around and do nothing... or do I start cleaning up? I've missed some major profits by just standing by and doing nothing. I let the market ride me and I didn't like what it was doing. So, I'm going to invest some more moola later on in the year after I'm done with my PDO. Just about two more months to go! Go, go ForexDiva!

I just found an OMG type investment in the financial sector, but since I don't have any excess capital, I'm going to share with all my fellow HSFTs here. It's... (drum roll)... Charles Schwab (SCHW). Whoa, what a balance sheet!

$28.78 billion in cash and only $1.31 billion in debt. However, P/S and P/B are both high. So the question is given the new market circumstances, is this a buy yet? If people are waiting for better levels before they jump, the treasure trunk could be at $8. This would take P/S down to around 2 and P/B to 1.62 if I did my calculations correctly. If I have moola then, I might do some experimenting with SCHW.

And if I don't get in before it starts skyrocketing, then I'll blame it on people who arbitraged me. And if I get sold after getting in the trade, then I'll blame the stop-runners. LOL.

Excuses, excuses!

But seriously, now that I have had some time to do some deep inner reflection about my recent market failures, I now realise that I shouldn't mind at all about prices hitting a certain level of resistance. If prices reach a certain threshold and then retrace, then that also means our risk is relatively contained, doesn't it? Look back on the days when I bought a few market tops with BAC and C into the $50's. That was a lot more painful than a retracement from $19.86 to $12.18 or from $5.11 to $3.11. So, if the market stays this way, then it only means we have to redouble our trading efforts and readjust our strategy.

Oh, yes! We're going to be strategic from now on. We're absolutely going to be the Strategic Sovereign (that's still in debt but soon to be financially free as a bee)!

But today... still:

-0.59% on the SBA
+0.59% on the Roth IRA

Harry, I'm dying for you to fill my wallet...

Back In the Confessional Booth & In the Military Position...

Ouch! If I hired a portfolio manager like me, I'd have no choice but to fire her. I have to admit what a terrible trader I am today. This is getting so lame! My portfolio needs some major TLC and I think I need to start doing damage control with my Roth IRA. I have two positions that are in minor profit (namely Sultan BCS and C) and I can either take a profit now and figure out something better to do with the substantial bit of moola or I can let it continue to retrace just because I've got a major TETSOB + can't admit when I'm wrong self-defeating attitude. Recall that I was lamenting how I messed up by selling my Crown Prince C after Bernanke's JNSB. Now, I have to be all schizophrenic and wonder out loud about whether I should have sold more.

I don't know what I want to do. The problem with me is that I always start out a trade saying that it'll be a 21st century ORTT. Then, when it retraces, I never have the heart to take a loss. And when it finally goes in my favour, I never bank on the organic growth. How can you trade like that? I'm not even selling - only buying. The market was totally taking me along for a ride rather than the other way around. But isn't this what most people are taught to do by their stock brokers? They always tell you you have to average in. But my BFF forex broker never told me that.

Tomorrow, if my Sultan continues to consort with others (which gets me very jealous), I'll sell part of the position for a minor gain and take a wait-and-see approach. In all honesty, I can't let go of C though and it's only because I did my bimbo analysis some time back and still like the risk:reward very much. But having to give up my Sultan of Liquidity? That'll hurt too. Yet my Roth IRA can only move if either C or BCS moves. And I need that moola to move in my favour, which means I've got to do something else with it.

Now that I look back on my relationship with the Sultan, I see $20.52 as having been a critical level. I took the difference between the 52WH and the 52WL and then divided that by half, which is basically the 50% Fibonacci retracement. Since there was price weakness there, we're most likely on the way down now. I'm going to have to test out this theory a bit more. I said I would spend the weekend doing my own homework but ended up doing some other type of homework instead.

I miss my BFF forex broker so much today. I think he's a lot smarter than a lot of people - not least because he was one of the first to sell the EUR/USD way back when.

-0.74% on the SBA, which was recently rebalanced when I sold part of C and bought some CENX
-2.04% on the Roth IRA, which experienced no rebalancing lately


The show must go on even though the sovereign is still in debt...

Bernanke Must Have Swept the Street...

... before his speech. I'm not complaining though. We're the girl on top today. My portfolio got catapulted up a knotch and my Roth IRA beat the S&P slightly.



+1.33% on the SBA

+1.97% on the Roth IRA



My only regret is having sold my Crown Prince and now what was once my hottest position has taken a potential downturn. I sold part of C at $3.90 and part of C at $3.68. I kept part of C in both portfolios. I also jumped in with CENX at $10.25, keeping part of my moola as cold, hard cash. I inadvertently became a bear in hindsight and looking back on what happened after Lehman, it took about six months for the dust to settle down. This time around, we saw selling since late April and we're now four months into the sell-off. Over the weekend, I'm going to analyse some individual stocks to see if I gain any insight. We've got to do our own homework.



Stabilisation should start occurring soon, but in case I'm wrong again, I'm going to continue using forex to hedge my equities portfolio. And within my equities portfolio, I'm going to move back and forth between high beta and high dividend stocks.



Now getting back to the financial hypocrisy... doesn't anyone ever think if Bernanke & Co. would just keep their lips sealed, we would have already seen a very strong recovery? All of the market volatility is actually being caused by our FWFOCH. Trichet probably sold the EUR/USD at 1.57 and Bernanke probably bought all the US equities market bottoms.



Who knows? All I know is that even though he hit a homerun today, I still hate his batting average and don't get how he gets to go down in history as the one who saved Wall Street... Now books like F Wall Street are in fashion. I do own a copy, but haven't read it yet.



Next week, I'll hopefully get to be a major market slut again by jumping from trade to trade.



I reckon it'll be much more profitable than sitting out on the bench. There was a ridiculous article in FT about how all of the money flowed out of equities into bonds and that retail investors have got it right this time. The authors clearly got burned in the equities market or have loaded up on bonds themselves. Plus, back when no one wanted to be in Treasurys, the banks have already loaded up on bonds and are now cashing in on what could turn out to be a very mediocre investment for the retail investors who bought bonds at very high prices. Let's see what happens when Prime Time comes around later on in the year. The final trading quarter is when things start to heat up in the equities market. If Wall Street swept the street, then it can only be a matter of time before I become Queen again...



And if not, then I've got my forex hedging strategy as well.



And yes, this was written by a very bitter woman who clearly got burned in the equities market and have loaded up on bonds.

Happy Weekend, Fellow Stop Runners!

I Want To Blah About Glencore...

So I opened up FT.com during my Lunchtime Fun session, which has been basically fruitless lately, and saw an article about Glencore posting some extraordinary profits. I was almost certain that my darling CENX would be able to finally get his levels on, but unfortunately that wasn't the case. In fact, I now see selling in Extended Hours Trading. But the people at Glencore obviously know what they're doing and since they seem to hold quite a substantial position in CENX, I'm going to follow their move. I'm admitting I'm small and powerless for once and following the Tall European Men on this one. Glencore's going on my permanent watch list.

I am so confused about the selling of CENX after Glencore's stellar results, but it's the fear of the bear at work. At least I don't have anything to moan about today after a long day of non-stop, stressful work negotiating with the Belgians, who obviously have TETSOBs. Once, I was negotiating with some French guy and he told me that I shouldn't depreciate him. That was the best line ever...

Anyway, my portfolio actually is showing some semblance of bullishness:

+1.78% on the SBA
-0.51% on the Roth IRA

Brent crude had a very nice pop as well...

Soon to occur... my BFF forex broker's going to most likely have daily webinars. How am I going to have a life? I can't possibly attend every one though. But attending the webinar today, I had a new Bwahaha insight and I might just use it to my advantage. Hopefully, it'll be to my advantage. I'll continue to attend the beginner webinars because actually, I can learn a lot from them. My heart is beating so much faster just thinking about it.

We don't have to be better than our forex broker. We just have to be better than the new traders, don't we. And if I can't be better than a new trader, then I might as well stop.

Crude Awakening...

Oh, Lord Almighty! Am I about to find out that I got played by C?



Oil seems to be holding too...



And this 5-day Brent Crude Chart looks kind of promising, doesn't it?






This was beautifully executed, oil traders! Now don't fade us to the downside...

My Trading Ego Cost Me...

... and I must now admit it. Oh, how I miss my BFF forex broker too!

I parted with the Crown Prince at $3.68 on another partial position at a minor, laughable profit. It was a moment of "I'll take what I can get," - very little financial dignity there. We're getting back to levels from EOY 2009 with C and if there's going to be a reversal, it's got to start happening soon. I saved a good part of my position so the door's slightly open, but slightly closed now. We might decide to give it one more try before the end of the year. The JPY crosses seem to be holding. I reckon currency traders must be the most intelligent traders ever - the good ones at least. And the bad ones? LOL. We get eatten for lunch by the GOL and the Real Men of New York. Unfortunately, I'm not one of the good ones - yet.

My whole portfolio of equity royalty got hit today - HWD, C, BCS, CENX, BAC. The Imperial Highness, the Crown Prince, the Sultan, etc. all got some major market bullying.

I refuse to give up though. I noticed some puzzling activity going on with CENX in Extended Hours Trading. We've got some charged-up bid sizes and I even saw a five figure bid size. So, I checked the options chains and the precarious situation from several days back looks much more balanced today. I'm waiting for the two-way winking to start happening on the $11 level and for prices to now start heading a bit higher. Could it start heading to $9 first? It might, but it's possible we might not get there. There's much bigger open interest at the $10 level now, so hopefully we're ready to go all the way with CENX. Who knows? Maybe I will be able to see my dream of selling at $12.35 finally get fulfilled.

The Extended Hours trade on CENX is still on. If I can sell within the next few days, I'll take that too. I've put my sell at a price that is much better than what I can get during normal trading hours.

I'll battle on with some of the cash I've freed up, but right about now, it looks much more compelling to complete the rest of my PDO. I've now got a credit score of 902 (go, go ForexDiva!). I went from 755 to 902 in about two years. I have another four figures of debt to go. By the time I'm done, I'll be officially five figures liquid net worth - equivalent to saving about four figures a year for twelve years. My balance sheet will be much, much smaller, but that's the trend, isn't it? And I'm determined to expand it.

Oh, but I had such high hopes for myself this year. I was hoping to be six figures at the minimum, so I'm really very disappointed.

Plus, now that my sister disowned me, I walk around feeling like everyone knows and that I've done something terrible. What about how she swindled, ahem, Madoffed, I mean borrowed five figures from me? So that's being a good family member - better than one who walks around with a bona fide Hermes Kelly and refuses to pay six figures for her brother's tuition, which he didn't even have the courage to lift a finger to apply for one scholarship for.

The thing to remember about bullying is that once any weakness is evident, people pounce on you like you're prey. And we want to be the huntress, don't we? Even if it's just the kind that ends up shooting themselves in the foot...

I'm done complaining about my family legacy and hopefully once my PDO is over, I could get on to the real fun of PPT - premeditated profit taking, every day, all day.

-1.8% on the SBA
-0.95% on the Roth IRA
Minus the trading ego...

The Broken Record Bears Said "Go to Sell"...

... and my portfolio suffered with disgrace:

-3.25% on the SBA
-1.87% on the Roth IRA


I'm still waiting patiently for my Extended Hours Trading sell on CENX to be triggered and am getting nearer and nearer to being filled on some potentially highly rewarding forex trades. I initially had a buy order on EUR/JPY placed at 105, but decided to move even lower when all these excuses from the past started resurfacing. This almost got hit - almost being the keyword. And I'm not going to tell anyone where I'm going to buy, but I'm looking to buy some JPY pairs and I'm going to make a play with Franc too.

No one gets remembered for having almost attended Brown University. We've either got to be the worst or the best. This year, I was the worst for having been the Woman Who Tried to Ride the GOL With An Account the Size of A Bike. I started out with big dreams and a small account and I was certain I would end the year with bigger dreams and a bigger account. Unfortunately... with less than four months of trading to go, I'm not sure if this is going to happen. But I'm going to keep trying.

Until oil touches $70 and I know for certain what's going on, I'm going to try the following:

1. Sell CENX during Extended Hours Trading (broken record... broke... en... rec...ord - OK, that's just so annoying that even I must admit it)
2. Try to sell a partial position of C on a bounce and then try to get into NGG... I'm then going to date both C and NGG by selling one and getting into the other - back and forth and to and fro. This could get hot. One's like the guy who likes experimentation and the other's sort of like the accountant type.
3. Watch out for 1 September 2010. It'll either be completely electrifying with Harry or a devastating brush with death. Which will it be?
4. Place some crazy bids on some crazy currency pairs. If oil doesn't hold, then I'm going to join in with the bears and release some best-selling broken records by belting out some Loonie Tunes. People are selling equities and moving into bonds as if, God forbid, Barclays filed for bankruptcy. Nothing's actually happened. Expectations are the only thing that have fallen flat. Since fear and optimism are the main drivers of the forex market, I am now waiting for the inconceivable levels to occur before making a move.

The bond buyers are going to get booed off the stage! Bonds are going to be like the next real estate bubble. When you think about it, it's almost as difficult to get out of a bond as it is to get out of property. One is essentially exchanging a lot of cash for the illusion of a future of steady cash flow. I learned this the hard way with my early JBQ trades (remember ABK?). This does not look good and maybe the best place to be is with His Majesty the King - Actual Cash.

But, I rant! Hmm... The weirdest thing since my sister disowned me is... the only thing that makes me happy is listening to Ghostbusters. I've changed the lyrics somewhat:

If your pips are small
And you risked it all
Who ya gonna call?
Forex Broker!

...Born in the USA...

... if you don't know me right now...

... be your teenage dream tonight...

This Makes Me Want A Swiss Bank Account More Than...

...that See You Later, Alligator Hermes Kelly wallet in the electric Bleu Roy (It's Not About the Shade, It's About the Style) colour...

I don't understand. If there are remarkable investments like NYSE:NGG around (8.45% dividend yield... 4.328 EPS) why are people fleeing to US Treasurys? Why?

I don't care as I haven't got the cash for a play like this... or do I? If I now sell two of my flailing positions, I could get into position with NGG.

I'm going to ponder this. Do I want the safety and security of being in those strong, muscular 8.45% dividend yield arms of NGG or do I want the unpredictable yet potentially romantic and occasionally infuriating smoking hot fiery passion of a High Beta HighFlyer?

Very potent question...

Action! Inspired by The Hung Parliament Down Under

I'm ForexBimbo and I missed the beautiful Hung Parliament in the Land Down Under since I was too entangled with my CENX play to notice that I could have applied the lessons I learned with Professor GOL for a decadent forex coup d'etat. I've got wandering eyes in the forex market, though, with about four crazy price buy orders. If I get plucked any more with my portfolio, I'm looking for downright revenge.

The options chains do not look encouraging on CENX and we closed below the critical $10 level. Together with oil prices that look like they're dying to touch $70, this could be a recipe for a Trading Floor Nightmare. If I didn't have a TETSOB, I would have had the marriage annulled long ago. Do I ever learn? Do I want to learn?

So, should I take the loss now or stand by and watch CENX slide down... down... down and unbutton all the prices all the way to the $7.50 level? I watched my E*Trade trading platform a bit and noticed that there were occasions where bid sizes slightly outnumbered ask sizes. This hasn't been very convincing lately though, as bid sizes on C are similar and we haven't seen C rise above any of the nonsense just yet. It could also be premature to consider further deflationary action on oil a done deal. The $70 level has held its own since about September 2009. But this terrifying time of late August and September when earnings announcements are not quite ready to be unveiled is typical Bear Territory.

I'm putting in a sell order on CENX in Extended Hours trading. With a little bit of patience and a little bit of luck, I might be able to get out without getting seriously plucked.

But I've apparently missed my chance at romance with BAC! CEO Moynihan bought 30,000 shares today, which means I seriously engaged in some self-sabotage by not keeping my trading legs crossed. Initially, I had wanted to use the proceeds from my recent separation with Crown Prince C to buy BAC at below the CFO's level. I decided to move my target price to infomercial levels of only $9.98, so my buy wouldn't have gone through. Now that I look at the options chains again, $9.98 still looks slightly intriguing in a very APKS way.

Now that I'm stuck with CENX, it could be a long wait till the next earnings announcement date of 27 October 2010. CENX is a bit of a loose canon though - being so high beta. Over the next several days, I'm going to place Extended Hours Trading orders on CENX. Wish me luck!

Harry and I have a special rendezvous on 1 September 2010 (subject to misunderestimation). I can't wait for my dear Harry to keep me warm and make me breathless with his high single digit daily gains again. Harry, brush my levels here, there, and everywhere please! Anywhere above the $10 belt is just fine...

Unfortunately:

-1.3% on the SBA
-0.19% on the Roth IRA

In case anyone's wondering... my Roth IRA is more heavily concentrated in financial sector stocks. My two HBH (High Beta Honeys) - CENX and HWD - are in the SBA.

Confessional Booth Time: Sell Something, Anything... Volume 200810

My CENX play resulted in very little trading plaisir, with my position experiencing a very minor +3% profit at best. This position did not hit the right spot and I entered hoping for some serious upwards momentum with the options expiry occurring on 21 August 2010.

Prices closed slightly below my initial entry level of $10.25 today and I am looking at the September 2010 options for some clue as to what to do. The $10 battleground remains relevant, but the upside doesn't look convincing.

If we do manage to break above $11, then $12.50 is likely. However, the question is will $10 hold? I think we won't know for certain until oil starts doing something definitive. In terms of seasonality, though, miners usually outperform towards the final trading months of the year. So, even though I wanted only a 21st century ORTT with CENX, I'm going to give myself till mid-September. I am going to prevent myself from postponing the sell indefinitely.

Here's what went wrong with this options chain...

I looked back on my notes from previous options chains inspired trades that I've done. Two-sided winking from both the call and put side has to be very prominent. Current prices have to be above a significant amount of put options and there also has to be significant open interest on put options above current market pricing. This means that fear will start driving prices up, resulting in very quick market action.

With the CENX play a few days ago, there was not enough option interest to drive the move up - particularly from the put open interest side. There was some call action, but not much was going on to put any fear in the bears. (So my Mom's actually got some newer dance moves than me, in case anyone's wondering).

What keeps my interest is that hostile bids seem to be dominating the headlines - BHP's hostile bid for Potash and Korea National Oil's hostile bid for Dana Petroleum are two recent examples. Companies have been hoarding cash - a well-known fact.

Maybe I'm delusional and schizophrenic, but my intuition says this could be a large-scale revenge move from the players who didn't get enough out of the previous market bottom that the Lehman bankruptcy caused. Those who didn't get in on the recovery are now going to pluck everyone and do a S&R to the upside. Pure, heartless evil!

M&A's are dominating headlines - not bankruptcies. And this is encouraging, considering that more than $50 billion of M&A proposals occurred this week according to FT.

Until oil gets battered, I'm sticking to my plan and holding onto my equities whilst looking to hedge myself with some timely Bwahaha type forex trades...

-1.45% on the SBA
-0.5% on the Roth IRA