I Quit! I Quit As A Semi-Bear...

I hate my portfolio!  I might as well get back in as a semi-bear when the official definition of a recession - i.e. two consecutive quarters of negative GDP or a 1.5% surge in unemployment within 12 months, according to Wikipedia.  

Other than the excitement of further upside on my CIEN straddle, the rest of my portfolio is bringing me down.  Although CIEN moved up +13.73% today after its earnings announcement, I am just a little above breakeven on that position.  A continuation move upwards is what I require for some financial kama sutra fun.  Alternatively, going completely the other route and breaking below $20 would also put me in the money.

I discovered the straddle after that disastrous CRM position.  I figured a stock is most likely going to move right after earnings announcement and if I do it right, it could be a very high probability trade.  But if it ranges, then I could end up losing money both ways.  So let's see how this financial experiment turns out tomorrow.  

With my earlier FB straddle, I ended up netting 26% on a full position.  If faced with a choice of making 26% on a full position vs. the uncertainty of either making or losing 100% on a unilateral position like I did with CRM, which yields better returns?  Of course, if I can figure out how to increase my probability on the unilateral positions, those are the best positions to take.  But right now, it's a mixed bag with more losses than gains.

It's clear that with a unilateral position that goes wrong, it's very easy to lose equity really fast - and hence the aforementioned experiment.  Perhaps I was meant to derive financial plaisir from the straddle?


-2.30% SBA
-2.14% Roth IRA

+0.65% DJIA
+1.01% Nasdaq
+0.81% S&P 

+0.10% FTSE
+0.21% Eurofirst
+0.54% Nikkei
+0.21% Shanghai
+1.83% SENSEX
-0.31% Hang Seng

-1.15% WTI
-0.63% Brent
-1.76% Gold
-1.59% Copper
-0.70% Corn

+0.48% GBP/USD
+0.37% EUR/JPY

+1.16% DJT
-4.39% VIX

+1.72% 10-Year US Treasury Notes


69% Advancing Issues on NYSE                    |   74% Up Volume
29% Declining Issues on NYSE                     |   24% Down Volume
2% Unchanged                                          |   2% Unchanged
71 New Highs   |  40 New Lows

63% Advancing Issues on Nasdaq                 |    74% Up Volume
33% Declining Issues on Nasdaq                  |    24% Down Volume
4% Unchanged                                          |    2% Unchanged
82 New Highs   |   24 New Lows


Today's Major Headlines:

Rajan Enters RBI With A Big Bang (From FT... This article is sensexually charged!)

Apple Event Raises Hopes of China Mobile Deal