Monday, May 6, 2013

Positioning! Positioning!


The semi-bears remain strangers in a strange land today as the SPY failed to gain meaningful upside momentum, touching a new 52WH of 162.01 for the briefest moment.  Whilst the upside seems to be contained, there's just as little downside.  Perhaps... just perhaps... in order for a major move to the downside to materialise, we need some Volume Accumulation to occur on the SPY.  

When will the bulls make the mistake of being so enamoured with the market that they will double up on their positions?  

Alas, I'm getting bored with the SPY game - and that may be precisely what the Market Makers are looking to do.  

As the In-House Economiss, I'm secretly yearning for Unemployment Claims to pop above 400,000 - or perhaps for NFPs to collapse decisively below 100,000 for good.  What if we get both and the tailwind starts taking the wind out of the bull sails?  

If we get such a scenario after my SPY puts expire, my only hope would be the VIX ETFs, but these have been some of my biggest losers so far, dragging down both portfolios day after day...


-3.39% SBA
-2.68% Roth IRA (took profits on AMD, SDR, and SLT calls - alas, total profits only offset about 50% of SPY put losses, so more repatriation is required...) 

-0.03% DJIA
+0.42% Nasdaq
+0.19% S&P 

FTSE Closed
Eurofirst Closed
Nikkei Closed
+1.16% Shanghai
+0.50% SENSEX

+0.24% WTI
+1.10% Brent
+0.34% Gold
-0.41% Copper
-2.86% Corn

+1.27% DJT
-1.48% VIX



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