Thursday, May 2, 2013

I Schemed & Got Creamed...


Pass the band-aids and the Kleenex please...  

Draghi reduced 'main refinancing rates' and this was not a fun day as my SBA reversed course amidst psychotic + ruthless Super Bullish 'We're Going To Move the Needle' open outcry roars of 'Rotation, Rotation, Rotation!'  Things got so heated on the trading floor that the Market Makers were able to push the SPY to a higher high, briefly brushing against 159.89 and closing above the previous record of 157.72.  

Though closing volume on the SPY was very light - just 76% of its 10-day average - the bulls clearly have stronger trading legs than anticipated.  Whether they're HFTs fluffing it or not, they've got pricing power and if this continues, the bulls will drive me out of business!  

Aside from buying overpriced $2 puts, I made the mistake of increasing my position size.  After surviving two or three near-death experiences as a put buyer, I (regrettably) decided I needed bigger positions in order to potentially increase my profits.  In hindsight, I obviously did this at the wrong time as my SPY $154 May 3 '13 puts will now expire worthless.  LOL all you want, but my profits were always going to be met with resistance if my positions stayed so small all the time.  Who would have known that the Market Makers would choose this moment to raise us?

Adding insult to injury, due to a lack of trading discipline, I made my daily loss worse.  I had initially wanted to buy the SPY $158 May 10 '13 puts at $0.60, but decided to pay up instead, leading to an unnecessary -25% on the position.

Now I know to watch Delta more carefully and to stop buying puts at proven support levels.  

Alas, 4 out of the past 5 years, a SPY market top was formed in either April or May.  Will this be the year this does not happen?

Sniff... sob...  into the Confessional Booth:


-10.68% SBA
+0.31% Roth IRA

+0.89% DJIA
+1.26% Nasdaq
+0.94% S&P 

+0.15% FTSE
+0.42% Eurofirst
-0.76% Nikkei
-0.17% Shanghai
+1.19% SENSEX (The Maharajas are back!)

+3.24% WTI
+2.93% Brent
+1.46% Gold
+0.73% Copper
+2.50% Corn

-0.86% EUR/USD
+0.64% USD/JPY
+0.78% EUR/GBP

+0.98% DJT (closing below 6100)
-6.21% VIX



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