You & Me: In the Confessional Booth Right Now...

Last night, after receiving a simple email from 9FM, I spent the night tossing and turning - unable to sleep. All I wanted to do was give him a quick call and tell him how we were financially made for each other. But I decided to wait it out since we've only got but a few more weeks to go.

After such a restless night, I certainly didn't expect the holiday surprise that His Royal Highness, the one and only, Benjamin Shalom had planned for the bears.

Today could have been even more beautiful, but I let go of JRCC way too soon and as I was doing it, I knew it, but I did it anyway. It's become a pattern for me and I've still got the blindspot. Perhaps I need a new prescription for my lenses? What am I not seeing here other than the fact that I'm buying too early during a downtrend and selling too early during an uptrend? Ultimately, this is what kills most traders and after spending so much time on the markets, it's still the single-most important factor that continues to undermine my success and market credibility.

Next time, I must remember: if I should have taken the third bullish signal on the way down, I must at least force myself to take the second or third signal to sell on the way up. It's only fair!

Oh, but those glorious profits were nothing to be ashamed of... yet, if discipline trumped desire, I would most definitely be a lot better off since JRCC ended the day +21.38%.

It's not often that we get global co-ordinated Central Bank Action, but this year, we've had at least two instances. This time, our benefactors included the Fed, BOE, ECB, SNB, BOJ, and the Bank of Canada, as well as emergency response from China. China has kept its cards very close to its chest, but two major Bwahaha movements have been revealed this week, including unveiling its outright desire to invest in western infrastructure as well as today's bank reserve requirement slashing.

Hopefully, these series of stabs were enough to keep the bears in despair. Brazil could take action shortly - and I wonder about India too? What type of karma suture fun could the Yummy Financial Maharajas be planning?

The FT puts it very succinctly: Banks Ready To Act Pre-emptively...

+5.55% SBA

+5.36% Roth IRA

+4.24% DJIA

+4.17% Nasdaq

+4.33% S&P

+3.16% FTSE

+3.60% Eurofirst

-3.27% Shanghai

+0.72% SENSEX

+0.45% WTI Crude

-0.40% Brent Crude

+1.83% Gold

+5.58% Copper

+0.67% Corn

+0.92% EUR/USD

+0.58% GBP/USD

-9.27% VIX

+21.38% JRCC

+12.90% CENX

+7.30% BAC

+9.57% HWD

Tomorrow's Natural Gas Storage Fun Day! I missed out last week, but I'm going to give it another go this week. We've also got Unemployment as well as ISM Manufacturing.

Oh, I Feel So Dumb Right Now!

I could have gotten out of the full JRCC position in the plus if I had just waited another 3 hours...

I wonder if buying on a dip will be considered wishful thinking now?

What the (Pending Home Sales)?

+10.4% m/m?

Someone pinch me for having sold JRCC so early...

OMG... That Was My 9th Time With JRCC!

And it's still as exhilarating as the first...

Profit taking really can be so much fun!

The Glencore Traders and I have only done it six times so far, but the most memorable by far must be with 9FM.

Out of Partial JRCC @ $7.54...

I know... I know... but I haven't taken profit in literally ages!

Will ride rest of the position through, though.

This was the partial entry @ $6.59 per share...

Profit [per share] of $0.95, or +14.41%...

Thank God for co-ordinated Central Bank Action!

Market Buddies... Janet's Yellen

Fed's No. 2 Sees Scope for Further Monetary Easing...

Four Bankruptcies, But No Funeral...

Yesterday, I was reflecting on my quote unquote luck. Over the course of the past few years, I've traded my fair share of bankruptcies (Lehman, WaMu, MF, DYN) and have so far been able to avoid major funereal consequences - with the exception of my recent brush with financial death by trading MF. Today's AMR Chapter 11 could have implicated me as well since I had thought about trading it a few weeks back, but stopped myself.

In contrast, the paper losses I've suffered of late seem to have had a much more significant impact on my portfolio than anything.

I've figured out part of the trading equation, but if I'm suffering from paper losses more than half the time I'm trading, that's a very inefficient and inappropriate use of capital. There has to be a better way - and if anything, next time the market turns bearish, I'm going to trade the second or third bullish signal I get rather than the first since that might actually save me from stepping into too deep of a puddle. Watching VIX has definitely helped somewhat...

I placed a one-cancels-all buy-on-a-dip order on CENX, HERO, or SKS today that didn't get hit. I spent the rest of the day daydreaming about how 9FM and I are going to be like Europe and have a deeper fiscal union. In less than three weeks, we're going to find out the results of my first collaboration with 9FM... Just talking about it makes my heart beat faster! I'm breathless with anticipation of the beautiful fiscal harmony that awaits 9FM and I. Until we get those results, he will doubt my work, but the proof will be in the pudding. And if I'm all hot air, he will see. And if my work is really capable of catapulting him into a whole new stratosphere, it'll be equally apparent.

In my heart of hearts, gaining 9FM's respect will be the ultimate reward because he was pretty hard on me at times, just like the market. But he saved me and gratitude trumps any other feeling I have for him. I wouldn't mind another 9FM...

+0.15% SBA

-1.39% Roth IRA

+0.28% DJIA

-0.47% Nasdaq

+0.22% S&P

+0.46% FTSE

+0.75% Eurofirst

+2.30% Nikkei

+1.23% Shanghai

-0.98% SENSEX

-4.64% VIX

+1.71% WTI Crude

+1.67% Brent Crude

+0.23% Gold

+1.12% Copper

+0.84% Corn

+0.11% EUR/USD

+0.68% GBP/USD

Princess of China

My ultimate idols, Coldplay, wrote me a song! Oh you, use your chart as a weapon, and it Hurts Like Heaven!

Plus, China stepped in and saved the world - for now... Together with record Black Friday sales, the bears started heading for the hills as the bulls seized the fort and served them with an opening gap that must have sent the bears into a fitful hallucinogenic state that is at once painful and disgraceful.

Nasdaq 2593.32, or the annual 50% Fib level, is still 65.98 points away and if things get really crazy, the bulls can easily achieve this within just one session. The previous time we broke and closed above this, the battle got fierce! But the previous time, we also let the bears get away with a few days of chop, so they didn't have to lose their shirts. This time, we zapped them with an opening gap...

Will the move up to Nasdaq 2593.32 coincide with Brent Crude pushing past $109.50? That's been a significant source of resistance and if we break through this, WNR may still have a rebound opportunity.

+3.04% SBA

+2.41% Roth IRA

+2.59% DJIA

+3.52% Nasdaq

+2.92% S&P

+2.87% FTSE

+3.63% Eurofirst

+1.56% Nikkei (Go, go Japanese Housewives!)

+1.18% WTI Crude

+2.01% Brent Crude

+1.91% Gold

+1.98% Corn

I'm going to have to look at some more charts tonight... Due to a lack of discipline, my trading legs were wide open, leaving me with too many losses and barely enough capital to fight back. There's just enough, but I really need to deploy it well and at the right time or my troops will be eating soup for some time.

P.S. CENX +8.11%

P.P.S. VIX -6.79%

P.P.P.S. SENSEX +3.01%

Their Majesties, the GOLs!

It was another sorrowful day for my portfolio. Unfortunately, due to an overnight Black Friday shopping excursion with my family, I missed today's trading session. Seriously, my shopaholism is hereditary!

But what better deal is there than the stock market - with so many stocks trading at nearly 70% off their annual highs?

This is not last season's merchandise and we've even got some high-end, beautifully crafted balance sheets at fire sale prices here. JPM is trading at just 62% of its book value and with just another 15% decline, we're going to get it at a P/S level below 1.0. But I still insist $24.99 is the level to watch on JPM - and we may not even get there, fellow bargain hunters!

My feeling is that the rebound is imminent for several key reasons:

1. the GOLs managed to push FTSE to end the day above the 50% daily Fib level

2. the Tall European Men pushed Eurofirst to end the day above 900, ending the day above the 50% daily Fib

3. Nikkei ended the day with a -0.06% loss that is only symbolically in the red, meaning the bears have very little power left to push further

4. Italian bond yields are already at 8%... By comparison, Corporate AAA bonds are only yielding 4.99%... Municipals A bonds are only yielding 7.86%. If I had a bunch of moola, I wouldn't mind investing in some Italian debt right now - and neither would my Dad.

True, the Belgium downgrade occurred after the GOLs closed the day, but I'm quite sure all the savvy European traders had already heard rumours from all their market buddies before the announcement and had already taken action beforehand accordingly.

I say the First Amendment Rights People have gotten out of control. I can't wait for the day the Eurozone leaders finally step up and serve them a EUR-denominated bailout fund big enough to whip their pips into submission. They don't even deserve to be tied with Hermes scarves either, but Death by A Thousand Slices, another severe form of Ancient Chinese capital punishment? Perhaps.

Let's see how the Japanese Housewives react to this news, though. It'll be our first indicator as to just how much more bearishness is ahead since they're usually fraidier than fraidy.

-1.00% SBA

+0.40% Roth IRA

-0.23% DJIA

-0.75% Nasdaq

-0.27% S&P

+0.72% FTSE

+0.94% Eurofirst

+1.20% WTI Crude

-1.06% Brent Crude

-0.24% Gold

-0.11% Copper

-1.32% Corn

-0.04% EUR/USD

0.00% GBP/USD (further indication that even if the GOLs are spooked, the bears may be wielding a very small sword now)

P.S. My sister's turkey sure was good!

Cornography

Let's take a look at corn, one of the most fundamental economic building blocks of the global economy, once again.

I thought corn had already bottomed out yesterday when it managed a very meagre rebound - something it hadn't been able to do in literally days.

However, based on today's market action, it seems the bears have some other plot in mind for this made-for-television real-life trading epic.

Do they want to strip the corn traders all the way down to the one-year lows until everyone's voice turns all husky? If you like puns, there's a bad one for you.

So if the one-year lows are really being targeted, we've still got some more downside to suffer.

We're very close to the October 2011 lows right now, which means the effects of Twist and the European EFSF market action, which is nearly $1 trillion worth of government action, is being mitigated and only new triggers can save us.

After all, German bonds are being shunned and there are murmurs of BAC default swaps hitting new highs.

I'm thinking QE3 should be just around the corner... and if Bernanke really loves us, we might even get this as a Christmas gift since there are going to be very little hawks left in the Fed and Obama is becoming increasingly open to the idea of economic stimulus.

For now, we need some semblance of consolidation to signal that the bears have finally started to take profit, but I jumped into some more JRCC today.

Two key reasons for my trade:

1. slight MACD bullish divergence

2. from the time I previously sold JRCC, there's already been more than a -35% decline from the top.

-3.12% SBA

-2.78% Roth IRA

-2.05% DJIA

-2.43% Nasdaq

-2.21% S&P

+6.29% VIX

-1.29% FTSE

-1.31% Eurofirst

-2.17% WTI Crude

-1.91% Brent Crude

For this Thanksgiving, I'd like to thank my market buddies - you know who you are - as well as 9FM and Bernanke. Without their monetary protection, I would have been toast ages ago!

Happy Thanksgiving to all - even to the bears...

P.S. Day's trading range... so far, the only pattern I'm noticing is pricing on a downwards trajectory...