Friday, November 25, 2011

Their Majesties, the GOLs!


It was another sorrowful day for my portfolio. Unfortunately, due to an overnight Black Friday shopping excursion with my family, I missed today's trading session. Seriously, my shopaholism is hereditary!

But what better deal is there than the stock market - with so many stocks trading at nearly 70% off their annual highs?

This is not last season's merchandise and we've even got some high-end, beautifully crafted balance sheets at fire sale prices here. JPM is trading at just 62% of its book value and with just another 15% decline, we're going to get it at a P/S level below 1.0. But I still insist $24.99 is the level to watch on JPM - and we may not even get there, fellow bargain hunters!

My feeling is that the rebound is imminent for several key reasons:

1. the GOLs managed to push FTSE to end the day above the 50% daily Fib level
2. the Tall European Men pushed Eurofirst to end the day above 900, ending the day above the 50% daily Fib
3. Nikkei ended the day with a -0.06% loss that is only symbolically in the red, meaning the bears have very little power left to push further
4. Italian bond yields are already at 8%... By comparison, Corporate AAA bonds are only yielding 4.99%... Municipals A bonds are only yielding 7.86%. If I had a bunch of moola, I wouldn't mind investing in some Italian debt right now - and neither would my Dad.

True, the Belgium downgrade occurred after the GOLs closed the day, but I'm quite sure all the savvy European traders had already heard rumours from all their market buddies before the announcement and had already taken action beforehand accordingly.

I say the First Amendment Rights People have gotten out of control. I can't wait for the day the Eurozone leaders finally step up and serve them a EUR-denominated bailout fund big enough to whip their pips into submission. They don't even deserve to be tied with Hermes scarves either, but Death by A Thousand Slices, another severe form of Ancient Chinese capital punishment? Perhaps.

Let's see how the Japanese Housewives react to this news, though. It'll be our first indicator as to just how much more bearishness is ahead since they're usually fraidier than fraidy.

-1.00% SBA
+0.40% Roth IRA

-0.23% DJIA
-0.75% Nasdaq
-0.27% S&P

+0.72% FTSE
+0.94% Eurofirst

+1.20% WTI Crude
-1.06% Brent Crude

-0.24% Gold
-0.11% Copper
-1.32% Corn

-0.04% EUR/USD
0.00% GBP/USD (further indication that even if the GOLs are spooked, the bears may be wielding a very small sword now)


P.S. My sister's turkey sure was good!



Wednesday, November 23, 2011

Cornography


Let's take a look at corn, one of the most fundamental economic building blocks of the global economy, once again.

I thought corn had already bottomed out yesterday when it managed a very meagre rebound - something it hadn't been able to do in literally days.

However, based on today's market action, it seems the bears have some other plot in mind for this made-for-television real-life trading epic.

Do they want to strip the corn traders all the way down to the one-year lows until everyone's voice turns all husky? If you like puns, there's a bad one for you.

So if the one-year lows are really being targeted, we've still got some more downside to suffer.

We're very close to the October 2011 lows right now, which means the effects of Twist and the European EFSF market action, which is nearly $1 trillion worth of government action, is being mitigated and only new triggers can save us.


I'm thinking QE3 should be just around the corner... and if Bernanke really loves us, we might even get this as a Christmas gift since there are going to be very little hawks left in the Fed and Obama is becoming increasingly open to the idea of economic stimulus.

For now, we need some semblance of consolidation to signal that the bears have finally started to take profit, but I jumped into some more JRCC today.

Two key reasons for my trade:

1. slight MACD bullish divergence
2. from the time I previously sold JRCC, there's already been more than a -35% decline from the top.


-3.12% SBA
-2.78% Roth IRA

-2.05% DJIA
-2.43% Nasdaq
-2.21% S&P

+6.29% VIX

-1.29% FTSE
-1.31% Eurofirst

-2.17% WTI Crude
-1.91% Brent Crude


For this Thanksgiving, I'd like to thank my market buddies - you know who you are - as well as 9FM and Bernanke. Without their monetary protection, I would have been toast ages ago!

Happy Thanksgiving to all - even to the bears...

P.S. Day's trading range... so far, the only pattern I'm noticing is pricing on a downwards trajectory...




Into More JRCC @ $6.59...


'Averaging in' with half my original position size...

Noticed slight MACD bullish divergence on 10-day 15-minute chart...



Tuesday, November 22, 2011

Mmm... Maharajas...


Is it time to open the treasure trunk?

SLT closed the day with a close above yesterday's close, ending in the green - an encouraging sign. During the final few minutes, I kept praying and praying that it would end the day above its 50% daily Fib level of $8.04 too, but unfortunately, all the Maharajas started selling at the last minute - leading to a prominent six figure ask block.

I might be able to have a moment of ecstatic profit taking if this upside on SLT continues.

On the weak side: BAC, JRCC, and WNR.

-0.61% SBA
-0.90% Roth IRA

-0.46% DJIA
-0.07% Nasdaq
-0.28% S&P

-0.30% FTSE
-0.60% Eurofirst

-3.71% VIX, hovering near 31.69

+0.98% WTI Crude
+2.05% Brent Crude

+0.08% Corn

Thank the Lord corn has stopped declining and the spread on WTI and brent is starting to increase again. There may be hope for WNR yet...

P.S. Daily ranges:



Come In the Confessional Booth With ForexDiva


I have been missing in action most of the day in an effort to get some rest to aid my recovery from the flu. I finally succumbed to taking antibiotics - something I never do.

My time-out didn't stop me from praying for two key things to happen now in spite of the downwards revision on US GDP today - and those two key things are:

1. for today's close to be higher than yesterday's close
2. for Nasdaq to close with a higher % gain than its counterparts

Pray with me, HSFTs for we have a little more than 20 minutes to go till we call it a day!


Monday, November 21, 2011

I Hate the Bears!


And I reckon they hate me too. Even with strong selling pressure, I continued to hold onto my shares - something I wouldn't be able to do by trading on margin. That is the power of cash, a power that I wish I could hold onto forever. Yet, if 9FM decides not to fill my wallet, the trading fantasy that I have will become as distant as the gap between current market pricing and the price I paid for my CENX shares.

So what are the bears so fussy about? I thought that even if there's no supercommittee deal, there's going to be an automatic across-the-board deficit-reducing plan worth $1.2 trillion? Now, the FWFOCH are threatening to block even this tiny bit of financial dignity we've got left.

If Bernanke ever decides to run for President, he's already got one vote - mine!

Most of my commodity plays closed the day above the 50% daily Fib level and VIX continues to retrace significantly downwards. We touched slightly above 35 today, but it's becoming evident that this 35 level is very strong resistance.

I wonder if I have missed my opportunity to buy a market bottom? If so, SLT is the closest thing I've got to a market bottom and I'm going to have to become chummy chummy with the Omnipotent Maharajas, Born Rulers of the Future Global Financial Epicentre / Inventors of Tremendous Open Outcry Trading Plaisir...

I'm holding onto the rest of my cash as ammunition in case we do see a break above 35 on VIX, which has the potential to trigger a rise to 45 - at which point, I'll most likely buy again.

-3.16% SBA
-2.75% Roth IRA

-2.11% DJIA
-1.92% Nasdaq
-1.86% S&P


Here's today's edition of the daily range on the stocks in my SBA. One of these days, some of these stocks will become the Crown Prince of my portfolio once again... But when?



The Previous Time There Was A Market Sell-off...


I had a beautiful trading distraction in the form of a luxury-filled trip to Hong Kong, where I met the mouth watering 9FM and spent my time sprinting around the city in the most adorable Hermes sandals.

This time around, it's not as fun as I battle a flu and face a dwindling account - with very little buying support from my market buddies.

I put in some worst case scenario bids and will be watching corn, oil, and JPM. Last time, I believed that the $24.99 level on JPM would be the one to watch for the ultimate sign of extreme bearishness.

I'm going to watch these levels for a clue as to when I can start arbitraging the bears...

This is just the beginning - and not the end - of my profit-taking!!



Friday, November 18, 2011

Why Aren't My Dead Cats Bouncing?


I'm going to be SLT-tier than ever and keep my positions over the weekend. I want to try something new and document the price ranges of the stocks I'm (supposed to be) trading. Over time, this could yield some trading insight as I have a new theory that psychological levels occur in pairs - maybe, sort of.



-0.42% SBA
+0.03% Roth IRA

+0.22% DJIA
-0.60% Nasdaq
-0.04% S&P


Supercommittee: Will We See More Downside Next Week?



I heard many are long BAC and I'm going to look for an opportunity to buy again - perhaps @ $4.99.



This Might Sound Corny...


... but corn prices are now very close to the lows made in October 2011, at the height of bear profit taking frenzy... In comparison, VIX hasn't yet reached the 45.45 level it touched in October 2011. What could it mean?